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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - April 29 - May 5

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Julia Goerges to beat (-1.5 set) Victoria Kuzmova at 2.88 with Unibet

Easy to see that Julia should win this when looking at the headtohead which is 4-0 to Julia and 8-0 in sets. Victoria pushed Julia to a second set tie-break in Aucklands semi earlier this season but that's the closest she's got to taking a set off Julia.

When the matchup looks so mutch in favor of Julia it's defenitely worth going for the sethandicap on Julia when the odds looks like the look.

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@aphro Come on, man, give us some added value. :ok

 

 

Is this just to inform the people what are the odds on Pinnacle

I would like to, but as i already mentioned here, value radar is the analytical tool based on odds history, surface type and other significant data, that i developed and it gives me signals when odds on underdogs are too high and they contain value.

So i cannot give any description, except of just betting advice.

It showed 23-25% ROI since 2015 and now at this forum even higher, and i always appreciate any opinions about my tips.

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Well, if you can't give us any info whatsoever, I'm afraid that you'll have to take your betting to the Glory Hunters subforum and make a thread there. As per the rules of that subforum, "In other Forums on Punters Lounge posters are required to give information such as reasoning behind a bet. Here you give as much or as little as you want.". We've loosened the rules a bit recently and not much reasoning is required anymore, but so many straight picks with no explanation, I'm not sure I can allow that. If you could at least say why the radar selected that bet (surface, form, or whatever).

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Well, if you can't give us any info whatsoever, I'm afraid that you'll have to take your betting to the Glory Hunters subforum and make a thread there. As per the rules of that subforum, "In other Forums on Punters Lounge posters are required to give information such as reasoning behind a bet. Here you give as much or as little as you want.". We've loosened the rules a bit recently and not much reasoning is required anymore, but so many straight picks with no explanation, I'm not sure I can allow that. If you could at least say why the radar selected that bet (surface, form, or whatever).

Ok, i'll try my best...

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Saisai Zheng 2.20 to beat Yafan Wang Bet365

Reasonings behind pick:

- h2h 4-0 Zheng

- Wang's first Madrid Open, slower surface. Her game doesn't have the most variety and her strength is her power, but I don't see her being able to outhit Zheng. Zheng has a little bit more variety and can utilise her slices, approaches to the net, moonballs and

- Wang doesn't have a outstanding record on clay, neither Zheng but Zheng has played on this surface 2 years ago and made the second round including a win over Svitolina. Zheng just won the clay tournament in Anning whilst Wang came off a 3 set loss to Konta on a bit faster clay surface. I feel Zheng's style is more suited to this slower surface

 

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J-L Struff to beat N. Kyrgios 1.95 lokal bookie

First of all Nick has not played any clay match since last year.He has arrived to Madrid 2 days ago and he prefered to play basketball instead of practicing.A few days ago he wrote on his ig acc “Who wants to go and play at Madrid,Rome.. for me ?” I do not think he is eager to play some tennis.On the other side Jan has beaten a few good players like Goffin,Tsitsipas lately.

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Sounds all plausible ... confidence? Because odds went the other way.

I noticed the trend on tennis explorer too. I feel about 6/10 confidence despite the slight change in odds (about 10 cents).

I don't think it's too much a fluctuation to take much notice, for me this should be more a 1.80 v 1.80 matchup.

 

Edit: Odds on Yafan Wang have drifted to 1.72 and now Saisai has shortened to 2.00 with Bet365

Edited by KennyDelight

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J-L Struff to beat N. Kyrgios 1.95 lokal bookie

First of all Nick has not played any clay match since last year.He has arrived to Madrid 2 days ago and he prefered to play basketball instead of practicing.A few days ago he wrote on his ig acc “Who wants to go and play at Madrid,Rome.. for me ?” I do not think he is eager to play some tennis.On the other side Jan has beaten a few good players like Goffin,Tsitsipas lately.

Never like betting on Kyrgios - the man is too unpredictable but GL!

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Anna Karolina Schmiedlova to beat Elise Mertens at 3.75 with bet365

I think Mertens is overrated here. Schmiedlova has a W/L record on this surface of 139-70 and Mertens has a W/L record of 67-42. Schmiedlova has already 2 wins here over dangerous players (Monica Puig in 2 sets and Pegula in 3 sets) while this will be the first match for Mertens here.

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Well, the reason of the loss of Bautista has a very easy explanation this time. Bautista is focused in the Mutua Madrid Open where he will have an incredible tough test in the 1st round that will be exhausting for him (David Ferrer). Since the match was delayed yesterday for rain to this morning probably Rober decided to "lose" this match to not play 2 matches in one day in a minor event

Taking a look at your results looks like your radar value works well but how can u introduce these kind factors in your application? I think that the best possible bets are: 1) betting against players that have no interest in a tournament; 2) betting against players that are not in his best physically/mentally

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Well, the reason of the loss of Bautista has a very easy explanation this time. Bautista is focused in the Mutua Madrid Open where he will have an incredible tough test in the 1st round that will be exhausting for him (David Ferrer). Since the match was delayed yesterday for rain to this morning probably Rober decided to "lose" this match to not play 2 matches in one day in a minor event

Taking a look at your results looks like your radar value works well but how can u introduce these kind factors in your application? I think that the best possible bets are: 1) betting against players that have no interest in a tournament; 2) betting against players that are not in his best physically/mentally

Darko is Garin value in the final?

Odds opened

Garin 1.80

Berretinni 2.00

 

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Christian Garin to beat Matteo Berrettini at 1.97 with Unibet

Unibet released their odds and they don't follow bet365 who have put Garin as 1.80 fav, they instead pick him as underdog which I think we should be happy about. It's very rarely to see a player outside of top 30 go and win two straight clay tournaments and I don't think it will happen this time either. Garin is likely the less fatigued player here and therefore should win this title.

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Paolo Lorenzi to beat Federico Coria at 1.80 with betfair

I didn't want to back Chris Garin to win in Munich at 1.80 but I'll back Paolo to win this challenger title in Savannah at 1.80 without twitching. Federico Coria hasn't done bad until this stage by reaching the final without losing a set but you'll have to look at the players he faced during this week. He didn't have anyone of notice except Tennys Sandgren to beat but Tennys was likely fatigued after two weeks on the spin in Sarasota and Tallahassee. Paolo is a gigant on the challenger tour, racking up 392 matchwins on the level through his career and will crack top 100 again if he wins this title and with his sight on not having to qualify for Roland Garros I think he can make it past Coria. Might not be easy, they met once before last season in Montevideo and Lorenzi won 3-6 6-0 7-6 so I wouldn't be surprised to see three sets again.

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Krystina Pliskova to beat Marta Kostyuk at 1.82 with Marathonbet

Im a little bit surprised for these odds, Kostyuk is a player with a great future but she’s only 16 and she has to face an experienced player with one of the best serves of the circuit. Krystina is playing very well now, she comes here after destroying Krunic and Kanepi, both in straight sets. Her W/L record on this surface is 119-108. Kostyuk has a W/L record of 23-10, most of them against low ranked players but with some interesting wins over decent players like Schmiedlova, Pera and Anisimova (in her first match here). She has win here against Anisimova and Irina Bara, both in 3 sets. At this odds I prefer Krystina Pliskova with no doubts.

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Anna Karolina Schmiedlova to beat Elise Mertens at 3.75 with bet365

I think Mertens is overrated here. Schmiedlova has a W/L record on this surface of 139-70 and Mertens has a W/L record of 67-42. Schmiedlova has already 2 wins here over dangerous players (Monica Puig in 2 sets and Pegula in 3 sets) while this will be the first match for Mertens here.

Lets see if this is the start of my recovery :hope. I will be very active for these matches played on Madrid. 

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Last bet for today

Felix Auger Aliassime to beat Denis Shapovalov at 1.80 with William Hill

Shapovalov has a W/L record on this surface of 48-21 while Felix has a W/L record of 85-35. Felix has win 8 matches on clay this year (Fognini, Garín, Munar, Cuevas, Cuevas again, Ramos, Londero and Jaziri) while Shapo has played just 2 matches and has lost both (Struff and Garín).

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If the match goes the same way that in the first set i have to say sorry for this incredibly bad bet. What a shame of first set by Krystina Pliskova, pathetic. I don't remember exactly but if my memory doesn't betray me against Kanepi she served more than 10 aces and only 2 or 3 double faults. Today against a 16 years old player she had 1 ace and 6 double faults and she's not able to return more than 2 shots, pathetic.. Lets see if it changes

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well, easy comeback from Kristyna finally :clap but has been a little bit frustrating anyway (6-22..! on break points converted by her :wall). 

Haha saw the post above and bet in-play after the first set on Pliskova, good odds! Thanks for that. I didn't really trust the 16-year-old (!) to continue in the same vein...

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