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Tennis Tips - April 22 - April 28


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I also think that Ramos has a good chance here.  OK, Medvedev had a great week in Monte Carlo but eventually failed at the most important moment against Layovic. We know poor Medvedev's performance on clay, it seems to me that his good game last week is rather an exception and I expect to lose in the first rounds.  I expect victory for Grigor Dimitrov, Verdasco is not in good shape and I do not think he has a chance here.  Dimitrov played awesome 1st set against Nadal and would win against any player other than Rafa. The Bulgarian already lost a lot of points last week, and now has to defend the quarterfinals from last year.

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Nadal R. - Mayer L. - Mayer +1.5 sets @ 5.75 with Pinnacle & 18Bet not Rafa's best year so far so I'm happy to have a wild punt on Mayer who's up to speed here after his 3 setter against Copi

David Ferrer (+5.5) to beat Rafael Nadal at 1.85 with Pinnacle Just repeating my support for Ferrer this week. Nadal wasn't too convincing against Mayer today and chances are that he won't be too

Albot to beat Krajinovic at 3.19 with Pinnacle I could not ignore these odds for Albot. I know this surface is not his favorite, but he's in the form of his life and he's full of confidence at th

13 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

David Ferrer to beat Lucas Pouille at 1.73 with William Hill

A very emotional week for Ferrer and he played well against Mischa, while Pouille has been lackluster recently to say the least. Ferrer managed to beat him in the Hopman Cup and that was on a hard court, should be easier this time around. I was expecting 1.40 honestly.

Excellent prediction as Pouille had no chance of coming near Ferrer!

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Hello all,

Just a small in-play rain tip from me for again for on Betfair. The ITF Andijan matches have been delayed and moved till tomorrow. For most of the markets the liquidity is pretty shit - as you would expect - but I noticed some action going on on the Savinykh - Rakhimova match. A couple of thousands - much compared to the other markets - have been matched on Savinykh on really low odds 1.14-1.31 range, while the match was already paused. And this while the score is 5-5 (0-0 in the game as far as I know) in the first set and the starting odds were pretty much evens, and Rakhimova just a slight favorite at some bookies even as well. I'm not sure if people will try to back these odds again, but otherwise it will be def. a nice lay at those odds. 

Normally I would also say you should be able to trade out for a nice green on both sides but I'm not going to 'promise' that here, since I really don't know what the liquidity will be on this market. 

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37 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

David Ferrer (+5.5) to beat Rafael Nadal at 1.85 with Pinnacle

Just repeating my support for Ferrer this week. Nadal wasn't too convincing against Mayer today and chances are that he won't be too keen on completely demolishing his compatriot even if he improves.

What do you think about over 2.5 sets or Ferrer (+1.5) ? 

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Bedene to beat Berrertini at 2.28 with Pinnacle

I do not know why Berrettini is a favorite in this game.  I watched him last week in Monte Carlo against Grigor Dimitrov and I am not impressed at all by his performance. Bedene is solid on clay, reached a semi-finals in Rio and a quarter-final in Cordoba. He also performs quite good here in Budapest, reached a semifinal last year, and played final in 2017.

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Albot to beat Krajinovic at 3.19 with Pinnacle

I could not ignore these odds for Albot. I know this surface is not his favorite, but he's in the form of his life and he's full of confidence at the moment.  Krajinovic lost the Sophia Antipolis Challenger final as a big favorite against Dustin Brown before few weeks and I think we can expect a surprise here again.

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Medvedev D. - McDonald M. - ATP Barcelona

I like it when a player suddenly finds a bit of form and Mackenzie McDonald is flying this week.

Daniil's confidence would have taken a big knock losing to Lajovic in the manner that he did last week so it's another longshot from me.

McDonald to win in straight sets @9.00 with Pinnacle & 18Bet

with a saver on

McDonald +1.5 sets @2.50 with the same bookies.

good luck all :ok

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Rafa Nadal/David Ferrer over 19.5 games at 1.85 with local bookie

I like the David Ferrer +5.5 handicap but my local bookie doesn't have that bet, they don't offer handicap bets at all acctually. Anyway I think David can stick with Rafa long enough for today to see this match get pushed over the 19.5 games line. He still isn't done yet David, he's got at least this tournament and Madrid left in his legs and he's playing some nice tennis still and has shown in through out this season time after time. He beat Tennys Sandgren very nicely for example in Acapulco and I predicted that. I didn't predict that Sascha Zverev would be so bad in Acapulco and lost the final to Nick Kyrgios and after that final and Indian Wells where he went out to J-L Struff he lost to David in Miami in 3 sets so David is still playing some nice tennis this season.

I really like David in his last matches of his career and I think he'll push Rafa today to somewhere around +20 games. Might even bring home the sethandicap based on how Rafa is playing.

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3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

The overs might actually be the better bet looking at it now, but I'm going to just let things roll and hope we're both going to be happy.

Well nothing was good with either overbet or handicap on David today unfortunately. Rafa turned it on David never really had a chance.

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3 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, David was one point away from securing the handicap in the last game, unfortunate.

Well that's how Rafa is. Martin Klizan was one point away from stealing second set last season but you know how that ended in the end but that time the over 17.5 games came in at least.

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1 hour ago, Blackroses said:

Tsits 2-0. Struff hits a clean ball and he's big and strong. His movement is worlds apart from Tsits and I think Tsits is going to keep him moving and uncomfortable. Love Tsits to win easy today. 

 

Any opinions on Pliskova? I like her over Azarenka but I try and stay away from WTA. Hard to resist this match for me though.

Doesn't look like Stefanos is gonna win easily, already a break down. To bad, I was thinking about him winning easily also. After all he has a 2-0 record in his matchup today and 4-0 in sets.

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Mitu/Panova look overpriced +325. Why , well Mitu is 5-0 on doubles this year clay.. Also last year she was 20/2 doubles clay. Panova/Mitu team rolled their first match 6-2, 6-2 and Mitu won the last clay tournament in Lugano with a different partner.. But probably Cirstea needs a bit of rest now, and a new partner is welcoming to her.. Babos is not in good form right now.. 

I am looking for a favorite to win singles for Bold text play.. Cannot find anything that i'm confident with yet. 

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26 minutes ago, money44 said:

Mitu/Panova look overpriced +325. Why , well Mitu is 5-0 on doubles this year clay.. Also last year she was 20/2 doubles clay. Panova/Mitu team rolled their first match 6-2, 6-2 and Mitu won the last clay tournament in Lugano with a different partner.. But probably Cirstea needs a bit of rest now, and a new partner is welcoming to her.. Babos is not in good form right now.. 

I am looking for a favorite to win singles for Bold text play.. Cannot find anything that i'm confident with yet. 

I cannot find anything either that I'm confident with. I've only lost today.

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I noticed @four-leaf 

Lose one pick that is not insured by some other bet in combination or losing two picks in a row, and the whole empire can come crashing down if you bet aggressively.  Its not like regular gambling at a casino.. You lose two bets in a row , and you win the next 3 bets after that just as easily... For me, when I start losing I will force the issue on the impossible, and then i'm a dummy in a crash course.. Well, I am trying to maintain control and get my bankroll to optimum level so I can buy into high stakes poker games which I usually do well.. All my money is constantly lost on these crazy tennis bets lol. 

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Gasparyan should be considered tomorrow from Istanbul@2,2. Kudermetova only won 1 game against Gasparyan earlier this year in St. Petersburg and Margarita leads h2h 3:0. This will be on different surface though, but I don't see any evidence of Kudermetova having any surface advantage.  

Also Kiki Mlad seems to be starting some sort of a winning spree, but Martic can be a tricky opponent..

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I've analyzed the quarterfinals of Barcelona. There is some interesting matchups for sure, and there was quite a few surprises in particular with Struff who does tend to do this quite a bit, and the notorious grinder Carballes Baena who found some way to beat the ferocious clay talent of Garin.  Nonetheless, Nishikori is hitting screamers up the backhand line, and seems a bit farfetched to me for Baena to win this match.. It's a nice story, but Roberto has let me down too many times already, and he could be tired in this one. I have a feeling that Garin was not playing his best tennis in his defeat even though I did not see the match or videos. Now we are off to Struff - Nadal. Well, It's clear that Jan Lenard is capable of many things guarding an enormous serve, powerful baseline shots, and speedy movement around the court. Beating Tsitsipas is very good, but Nadal is on a different level to win.. It will have to be another debauchery such as Fognini murdering the ball to each wing of the baseline. This is another pride match, and Nadal has already too many letdowns.. I cannot see this magic happen in Barcelona, but I have placed small stake on Struff to insure the action in case I'm wrong. 

Yesterday I'm winning with Jarry in another scary one, but Dimitrov played reasonably well; as maybe Zverev also did in the match prior. There is some magic going on in the Jarry camp right now, and he does have some Chilean supporters at the tournament. He's covering all aspects of the defense, and hitting beautiful shots. Medvedev Winning vs Mcdonald doesn't impress me for some reason.. I do respect McDonald tho..Rating 45% completion 

Nicolas Jarry to beat Daniil Medvedev @ 4.0 with Pinnacle

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