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Tennis Tips - April 22 - April 28


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Nadal R. - Mayer L. - Mayer +1.5 sets @ 5.75 with Pinnacle & 18Bet not Rafa's best year so far so I'm happy to have a wild punt on Mayer who's up to speed here after his 3 setter against Copi

David Ferrer (+5.5) to beat Rafael Nadal at 1.85 with Pinnacle Just repeating my support for Ferrer this week. Nadal wasn't too convincing against Mayer today and chances are that he won't be too

Albot to beat Krajinovic at 3.19 with Pinnacle I could not ignore these odds for Albot. I know this surface is not his favorite, but he's in the form of his life and he's full of confidence at th

Sebastian Korda to beat Milan Zekic at 1.66 with Pinnacle

Stefan Kozlov to beat Alexander Zhurbin at 2.38 with Pinnacle

Yan Bai to beat Sriram Balaji at 1.69 with Pinnacle

Enough has already been said about Yan Bai last week, this week should be no different, he has a 2-0 record against Balaji, who has even played just four matches so far in this season. Over in the USA, I fancy the currently high-flying and very talented Korda to beat Zekic, who's never done anything of note and who's now relegated to struggle in smaller tournaments imo. Finally, I find some value in Kozlov to beat Zhurbin. Now - Kozlov hasn't really achieved what pretty much everyone has been expecting from him and he's yet to replicate his good past seasons, but I'd say that he's still better than Zhurbin, who's also incidentally on a poor losing streak at the moment. I wouldn't back Kozlov at 2.00 or below, but 2.38 is a price I like.

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Kukuszkin to beat Berrettini at 2.30 with Pinnacle

Kukuszkin lead 2:1 in h2h against Berrettini . Last time Berrettini won ,but he won two sets in tie breaks and them was very close . This is classical 50/50 match so I dont know why Kukuszkin is dog here .. Berrettini played really bad against Dimitrow in Monte Carlo and Kukuszkin played well against Chardy and Tsitsipas ,he lose against Tsitsipas 2:0 but I watched this match and in my opinion he should won then at least one set . 

Xu to beat Ma in An-Ning at 1.74 with Pinnacle 

Xu is on fire now and she should easy win against Ma . Ma don`t played on clay last time and she is worse player than Xu . Odds are falling fast .

 

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1 minute ago, Rypcio said:

Kukuszkin to beat Berrettini at 2.30 with Pinnacle

Kukuszkin lead 2:1 in h2h against Berrettini . Last time Berrettini won ,but he won two sets in tie breaks and them was very close . This is classical 50/50 match so I dont know why Kukuszkin is dog here .. Berrettini played really bad against Dimitrow in Monte Carlo and Kukuszkin played well against Chardy and Tsitsipas ,he lose against Tsitsipas 2:0 but I watched this match and in my opinion he should won then at least one set . 

Xu to beat Ma in An-Ning at 1.74 with Pinnacle 

Xu is on fire now and she should easy win against Ma . Ma don`t played on clay last time and she is worse player than Xu . Odds are falling fast .

 

An-Ning was last week, Nanchang is next weeks chinese clay challenger

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29 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

I have no idea what happened to Kozlov's odds, many bookies even stopped offering the match by the looks of things. :loon :loon :loon

I tried to bet on Stefan on Unibet but that didn't have that match when I was looking for it. But anyways I'm not gonna be into tennis for the next two days because I'm into snooker in Sheffield at the Crucible until tomorrow. But good luck with Kozlov, Bai and Seb Korda, hope all 3 comes in and that Ronnie O'Sullivan beats James Cahill by 7 frames and that Joe Perry beats David Gilbert. After that I'm all into snooker again maybe or some tennis. Depends on whatever bet that comes up as potential win.

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Nanchang Challenger

Go Soeda vs. N. Sriram Balaji @3.03 Pinnacle 5/10

I do rate Balaji very high, he's pretty good player with nice variety, can play all styles (aggressive offensively, more defense with counter shots). Furthermore he has good serve aswell. I like his style and as he's focusing on doubles he hasn't a ranking in singles at all so he's often underrated and gets nice odds. He can play well on clay, played a lot on clay early in his career and has best winning % on clay. He likes those claycourts in Anning which are a bit special as there is high altitude and it's pretty special conditions according to some players. Soeda on the other side is absolutely NO clay player, he has terrible record on clay with 15-22 throughout his entire career, considering he's almost 35 years old this is pretty much all you need to know. Soedas last two wins on clay were vs. old and half retired Lleyton Hewitt 2015 in Houston and 2012 at the World Team Cup in Dusseldorf vs. Andy Roddick. He has absolutely no business on clay and odds are great here to fade him. 

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Giulio Zeppieri (+1.5 sets) to beat Javier Cosano Barranco at 1.70 with Sbobet

Giulio Zeppieri couldn't get the job done against Kokkinakis last time out, but he certainly proved that he can play in that match and I think that he'll have a decent chance of getting something against Barranco on Tuesday. The Spaniard is a relatively average player, a bit more experienced than Zeppieri obviously, but he's coming into this on the back of a long week in which he lost in Futures finals, so he might be a bit tired. I wouldn't play this outside Italy, but, with all the different situational factors working in Zeppieri's favor here, I am going to have a bite. I'm also somewhat interested in Viola.

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Leon Challenger

Carlos Gomez-Herrera vs. Gerardo Lopez Villasenor @2.50 Pinnacle 3/10

Good chance for Lopez to upset the Spaniard here. Lopez has dangerous game with huge forehand and big serve, he's a big talent on my ranking. He had close match with Johnson in Acapulco and beat Escobedo in Morelos. Should be 50/50.

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5 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Giulio Zeppieri (+1.5 sets) to beat Javier Cosano Barranco at 1.70 with Sbobet

Giulio Zeppieri couldn't get the job done against Kokkinakis last time out, but he certainly proved that he can play in that match and I think that he'll have a decent chance of getting something against Barranco on Tuesday. The Spaniard is a relatively average player, a bit more experienced than Zeppieri obviously, but he's coming into this on the back of a long week in which he lost in Futures finals, so he might be a bit tired. I wouldn't play this outside Italy, but, with all the different situational factors working in Zeppieri's favor here, I am going to have a bite. I'm also somewhat interested in Viola.

Good call. I took Zeppieri yesterday @ 2.65 with big stake. My biggest bet this week so far. He'll beat Barranco.

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Nanchang

Hao Wu vs. Vaclav Safranek @8.47 Pinnacle 4/10

I have to try this as Wu isn't bad. I know him from a couple of years ago where he was called one of the bigger prospects in China. He was decent Junior player, nearly cracked Top 100, beat a couple of decent names like Alexander Erler or Yibing Wu. He looked pretty good yesterday in qualifying. I watched the match and he was playing aggressively with big groundstrokes and huge serves. On the other side we have Safranek who's in a slump for months now. Losing to guys like Roncalli, Perchicot, Haerteis, lost sets to players like Sabanin or Netuschil aswell. He looked pretty bad last week vs. Myneni. Only landed ~50% of his first serves, and the second serve was a mess, lot of errors. If Wu has a big day and good rhytm he can make this closer than odds around 9 suggest and if Safranek losing the plot again the win for the underdog isn't out of reach.

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4 hours ago, opole said:

Good call. I took Zeppieri yesterday @ 2.65 with big stake. My biggest bet this week so far. He'll beat Barranco.

Constantly great reads and input on this site. I have enjoyed reading all the analysis whether a pick is a win or loss. I'm going to try and be a contributor to this site more often.

It's too bad that my first pick is the opposite of this play. I'm loving Barranco in this and he's a max play for me. I feel like Barranco is deservedly favored. Even though he hasn't lit the world on fire I feel like he's on the verge of something in this tournament. I have him beating Koepfer and Travaglia. I think he's going far. 

I also think Cuevas against Maden and then beats Cilic in the next round. 

Millman to win, defending his points.

Ferrer 2-0, which isn't exaclt going out on a limb.

I also think Munar/Tiafoe will be closer than expected. Line is rising but I love the +1.5 sets for Tiafoe.

Max play parlay for me is Cuevas/Djere. No way Djere is losing to Gulbis on clay.

Thanks for reading.

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D. Lajovic to beat M. Valkusz 2:0 sets @1.90 with bet365

We all saw how Lajovic played, he reached his first ATP Masters 1000 final and played very good against Fognini. Lajovic beat Thiem, Goffin, Medvedev all with 2:0 sets and with his game he deserved to be on the final. Now in Budapest, he will face Valkusz (homeboy) who has played only one match this season and retired. At age 20 I don't think Valkusz can make something against Lajovic who seems playing very good at the moment on his favorite surface clay.

GL!

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Kateryna Kozlova to beat Anastasia Potapova at 1.83 with Pinnacle

Potapova has a 2-0 record against Kozlova, but I fancy the latter here nonetheless, as Potapova has been off pretty much since the start of the season, having just one interesting run. Moreover, while she was battling it out in the Fed Cup, Kozlova was successfully qualifying for this tournament, in which she managed to reach the SFs a couple years back. All in all, I think that something like 1.57 for Kozlova would be fair here.

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David Ferrer to beat Lucas Pouille at 1.73 with William Hill

A very emotional week for Ferrer and he played well against Mischa, while Pouille has been lackluster recently to say the least. Ferrer managed to beat him in the Hopman Cup and that was on a hard court, should be easier this time around. I was expecting 1.40 honestly.

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