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Fader

IPL - Indian Premier League 2019

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Yeah, not the greatest of quality. Buttler went too hard, too soon for the batsman bet. Annoyingly I couldn't decide between Dhoni and Jadhav and chose the wrong option but hey ho, looking to today Kolkata look to continue their 100% record at home. They face a Delhi Capitals team who have 2 wins from 3 away from home.

Ofcourse Delhi beat Kolkata in the super over in this reverse fixture a couple of weeks ago after a tied match. Once again, the odds on the outcome do not appeal. i fancy Kolkata to extend their good home form and there is no price atall so again on to the individual bets.

At home this year Rana and Russell have been outstanding for Kolkata. Interestingly, Russell had the most wickets here too, in both matches. So, I will take a little punt on the bowling section for him. Let's face it, if Russell does well, because of his position and power he will probably be Man of the match, so instead of taking him to be top batsman, i'll take the MOTM, but I would'nt put anybody off of the 5/1 on him being top batsman. Bowling for Delhi, you would have to expect Rabada who had 8 wickets in 3 matches.

For Delhi, I am going to side with a big price on Ingram who has been solid. a 38, 47 and 22 shows he can settle and score and 5s is a good price in my eyes.

2pts Rana top Kolkata Batsman 6/1 bet365
2pts A.Russell top Kolkata Bowler 4/1 paddypower
2pts C.Ingram top Delhi batsman 5/1 boylesports
1.5pts A.Russell MOTM 7/1 paddypower

 

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Felt like it was fixed, though this happens quite often with two teams (CSK and MI) in particular i.e. it looks like they are going to lose and they tend to win because the other team does something stupid in the end. In this season KKR too, but that is mostly due to Russell. 

Speaking of which, today's game: KKR vs DC

Eden gardens: there have been two games here and both were high scoring games with teams scoring 181, 183, 218 and 190, and this one seems to be nothing different. 

Going to pick: 

3PTS Total Runs in Match: Over 340.5 @ 2.10 Bet365

KKR certainly and most likely the favourites, but at this odds (1.68) it's not worth backing them, I would wait till it goes in play. 

For Top runscorer KKR, Nitish Rana looks like a fit to me, he has been playing well and I think this can be a match he gets a high score: 

2 PTS Top Team A Runscorer Nitish Rana @5.0  Betfair

For Delhi, it's none other than R.Pant

3 PTS Top Team B Runscorer R. Pant @3.75 Betfair

Good Luck today!!

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Mumbai Indians Vs Raja Royals

I think Buttler is most likely top batsman for Raja, but he looked to intent on attack, attack, attack. I know that's his game, but he really needs to know when to go for the big sixes atleast. I think Samson is abit of value outside of the top 2. On the other side Yadav looks to be the pick for Mumbai. .

2pts Yadav top Mumbai batsman 4/1 bet365
2pts S.Samson top Raja batsman 4/1 paddypower

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Betting on individual T20 matches, particularly in a tournament like this, where the matches come thick and fast, is usually a bit of a lottery, and very difficult to predict and find value. Yes, the likes of Chennai, KKR and Sunrisers, are the stronger teams, and will rise to the top over the course of 14 matches, but each individual match is fairly unpredictable.

 

I think I have found a couple of areas of value though, one really obvious one and one not so clear cut:

 

1. The easiest way to make money on this tournament is simply by betting on RCB to lose. I can’t believe that they still go into most matches as almost favourites, given how bad they are. Are the bookies hugely over-estimating Kohli and De Villiers? They are a diabolical team. I love seeing a team of individual superstars in any sport getting their comeuppance at the hand of teams that actually work together as a unit, and this is no different.

If the situation changes, we can reassess and perhaps back out, but for now we need to be lumping on RCB to lose each time they play. I’m not sure why this hasn’t been tipped up more strongly here so far? Is this not where the value lies in this tournament? How are they still favourites or almost favourites each time they play?

 

2. I think IPL is generally a tournament where home teams win, rather than the better team, and again, I don’t think the odds quite reflect that, and tend to favour the better of the two teams instead. I will be trying betting on the home team (apart from RCB matches) for the rest of the tournament, as I think this should make a slight profit.

 

I can’t find much other value, unless there are odd matches here and there where the bookies have got their lines off for sixes or total runs or something like that.

I think that most other markets are just lotteries, things like most sixes, highest opening partnership, highest first six overs score.

Can I ask Fader why you think there is value in top batsmen/top bowlers/man of the match bets? Do you not think that they are also a bit of a lottery and the bookies odds are fairly spot on in terms of how they are spread amongst the players?

Edited by Absurdity1007

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hello,

my thoughts;

- sixes/4s should have a lot of value, some bookies have problems getting them right (sportsbet for example). Earlier on we had bets almost hitting the numbers in just the first innings.

- top batsmen has some value, teams might appear stacked with stars but if you pick 2 out of the top order / middle+ order (dre..) consistent ones you can hit it fairly often..

obv picking 2 lowers potential earnings..

head 2 head ive dropped that market, even during live games. retarded.

- over/under runs you can pick some with in plays

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On 4/13/2019 at 11:26 AM, Absurdity1007 said:

Betting on individual T20 matches, particularly in a tournament like this, where the matches come thick and fast, is usually a bit of a lottery, and very difficult to predict and find value. Yes, the likes of Chennai, KKR and Sunrisers, are the stronger teams, and will rise to the top over the course of 14 matches, but each individual match is fairly unpredictable.

 

I think I have found a couple of areas of value though, one really obvious one and one not so clear cut:

 

1. The easiest way to make money on this tournament is simply by betting on RCB to lose. I can’t believe that they still go into most matches as almost favourites, given how bad they are. Are the bookies hugely over-estimating Kohli and De Villiers? They are a diabolical team. I love seeing a team of individual superstars in any sport getting their comeuppance at the hand of teams that actually work together as a unit, and this is no different.

If the situation changes, we can reassess and perhaps back out, but for now we need to be lumping on RCB to lose each time they play. I’m not sure why this hasn’t been tipped up more strongly here so far? Is this not where the value lies in this tournament? How are they still favourites or almost favourites each time they play?

 

2. I think IPL is generally a tournament where home teams win, rather than the better team, and again, I don’t think the odds quite reflect that, and tend to favour the better of the two teams instead. I will be trying betting on the home team (apart from RCB matches) for the rest of the tournament, as I think this should make a slight profit.

 

I can’t find much other value, unless there are odd matches here and there where the bookies have got their lines off for sixes or total runs or something like that.

I think that most other markets are just lotteries, things like most sixes, highest opening partnership, highest first six overs score.

Can I ask Fader why you think there is value in top batsmen/top bowlers/man of the match bets? Do you not think that they are also a bit of a lottery and the bookies odds are fairly spot on in terms of how they are spread amongst the players?

I go off the prices available. If they are going to offer somebody like Russell prices of 5/6/7/8 to 1 then that is value because he is the power scorer in that team. 

Do I think they are a lottery? sometimes, ofcourse. Are they spot on with odds, no. There are players that fail every game, being an opener and yet they are favourite each time.

one thing i do think though, is these questions will come up after a couple of losers, and never with multiple winners. Also, it's very easier to oppose 6 7 8 to ones and notso odds on shots..

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Hyderabad Vs Delhi

Delhi look a spot of value today. Going to take some MOTM bets today. Rabada has been on fire this season. Bairstow has been on of the most consistent top order batsman this season. Both look a decent price. 

1pt Rabada man of the match - 12/1 bet365
1pt Bairstow man of the match - 8/1 ladbrokes

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1 hour ago, Fader said:

I go off the prices available. If they are going to offer somebody like Russell prices of 5/6/7/8 to 1 then that is value because he is the power scorer in that team. 

Do I think they are a lottery? sometimes, ofcourse. Are they spot on with odds, no. There are players that fail every game, being an opener and yet they are favourite each time.

one thing i do think though, is these questions will come up after a couple of losers, and never with multiple winners. Also, it's very easier to oppose 6 7 8 to ones and notso odds on shots..

I’m assuming you’re talking about Russell being top batsman for his team, at between 5/1 and 8/1?

A lot needs to go right for Russell to be top batsman. He is way down the order, so firstly, he needs to get in and actually bat, which doesn’t always happen. Secondly, he needs Lynn, Uthappa, and all the other quality batsmen in that team to all score low enough for him to surpass their totals, and finally he needs to score well himself. I reckon 5/1 - 8/1 is a completely fair reflection of where the chances of that lie, ie two or three times in a 14 to 17 game season. 

I wasn’t criticising your long odds bets after a couple of losses, that wouldn’t be fair at all. I’m just interested in why you think they’re value, and if they’re profitable over a season or two, as if they are, I’ll be joining you in betting on them.

I couldn’t see the value in those top player markets myself, I found them to all be lotteries.

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2 hours ago, Fader said:

I go off the prices available. If they are going to offer somebody like Russell prices of 5/6/7/8 to 1 then that is value because he is the power scorer in that team. 

Do I think they are a lottery? sometimes, ofcourse. Are they spot on with odds, no. There are players that fail every game, being an opener and yet they are favourite each time.

one thing i do think though, is these questions will come up after a couple of losers, and never with multiple winners. Also, it's very easier to oppose 6 7 8 to ones and notso odds on shots..

I’ve had a look just now, and as I expected, the Man of the Match market pays out around 64p to a £1 investment. That’s a pretty paltry sum, worrying that bookies can get away with that in fact.

(To compare that to a couple of other examples, Highest Opening Partnership, pays out 91p per £1, or the match result, which pays out 95p per £1.)

If you can make a profit on a market which is paying out an average 64p per £1 invested, then you are some gambler, and I take my hat off to you.

For that to happen though, your cricket knowledge would have to be exceptional and you’d have to think that the bookies’ lines are way, way off. I can’t see how you can overcome such low payouts, particularly on such a random format of sport as T20 cricket, but I’d love to be proved wrong and to join you in making some money!

Let us know how it goes over the course of the season.

Edited by Absurdity1007

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wow, Rabada 4 wickets and doesn't get man of the match, but Paul, 3 wicket does. 

Absurdity - Yeah, maybe you're on to something. Top batsman etc isn't the only type of bet I do on the IPL. I would say if it was the only bet somebody was looking at then it probably wouldn't be profitable the course of a season. Same as only "man of the match" bets. 

we'll see how the season pans out.

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2 hours ago, Fader said:

wow, Rabada 4 wickets and doesn't get man of the match, but Paul, 3 wicket does. 

Absurdity - Yeah, maybe you're on to something. Top batsman etc isn't the only type of bet I do on the IPL. I would say if it was the only bet somebody was looking at then it probably wouldn't be profitable the course of a season. Same as only "man of the match" bets. 

we'll see how the season pans out.

I don’t think ‘I also bet on other markets’ can be used as justification for poor bets, or for betting on markets with no value, though. Surely each bet and each market must be judged on their own merits? If a market has no value (ie pays out at 64%) then it should be avoided like the plague.

 

You’re watching a different tournament to me, or have a very different understanding of statistics than me, if you think that Jonny Bairstow wins today’s Man of the Match more often than one in nine, or Kagiso Rabada wins it more often than one in thirteen. 

 

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it's only a poor bet by your opinion. I'm not going to spam this thread with this. End of conversation.

by the way, currently the "top batsman" tips in this thread has +17.5pts

Edited by Fader

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Mumbai Indians take on Royal Challengers. Mumbai have won 2 and lost 2 at home this season, where as RCB have lost all 3 of their away matches. These two have already met at Bengalaru and MI won that by 6 runs. That was despite their two "big hitters" performing well, (ABDV 70 and Kohli 46). I'm on Mumbai Indians here. RCB will be buoyed by their first win (despite being urged to lay them every game above)

I'll take ABDV to perform here for the RCB. He hit 70 on home turf in this fixture and of the two most likely here, I would side with him over Kohli. I also expect a decent game from HHPandya. Before the Rajastian match, he had taken 6 wickets in 3 matches. He only bowled 1.3 overs in that match to be fair. if he's given the ball, he'll strike.

5.5pts Mumbai Indians to beat RCB 8/11 paddypower
2pts HHPandya (Top Mumbai Bowler) 9/2 bet365
2pts ABDV (Top RCB batsman) 3/1 Marathon

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2 hours ago, Fader said:

it's only a poor bet by your opinion. I'm not going to spam this thread with this. End of conversation.

by the way, currently the "top batsman" tips in this thread has +17.5pts

Yeah, I had a quick count up of your IPL 2019 tips last night, and your top batter and bowler tips are in profit so far. If you can maintain that over a decent amount of matches, then fair play to you, I will be hugely impressed, because as I said earlier, I saw those as dead markets with no value.

Prove me wrong please!

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27 minutes ago, Fader said:

Mumbai Indians take on Royal Challengers. Mumbai have won 2 and lost 2 at home this season, where as RCB have lost all 3 of their away matches. These two have already met at Bengalaru and MI won that by 6 runs. That was despite their two "big hitters" performing well, (ABDV 70 and Kohli 46). I'm on Mumbai Indians here. RCB will be buoyed by their first win (despite being urged to lay them every game above)

I'll take ABDV to perform here for the RCB. He hit 70 on home turf in this fixture and of the two most likely here, I would side with him over Kohli. I also expect a decent game from HHPandya. Before the Rajastian match, he had taken 6 wickets in 3 matches. He only bowled 1.3 overs in that match to be fair. if he's given the ball, he'll strike.

5.5pts Mumbai Indians to beat RCB 8/11 paddypower
2pts HHPandya (Top Mumbai Bowler) 9/2 bet365
2pts ABDV (Top RCB batsman) 3/1 Marathon

Yeah, great odds as usual on RCB getting beat.

I’m scared to lump on, after losing a serious sum when they got their first win on Saturday!

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Good match yesterday. If it wasn't for AB though, RCB may aswell not turn up.

Kings Punjab take on Rajasthan today. Played the reverse fixture already and Kings won that tie by 14 runs after Kings posted a 184/4. As expected really Gayle and Butler were the men that shined bright that day and it wouldn't be a big suprise if that were the case again today. I've thought about this too much really and I can't come up with anything I like enough. I prefer Kings, but Raja are probably the value so it's a no bet for me.
 

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Difficult to call win here RR in better form and since they are chasing its the conditions will be in there favour. 

 

Top order batsman for both teams are good so I'll go with.

2pts j. Butler top batsman  @3.2 betfair

2 PTS kl Rahul top batsman @3.25 Betfair

 

 

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Hyderabad Vs Chennai today then. Hyderabad after a good start to the season at home beating Rajasthan with their biggest chase and then beating Royal Challengers, have lost 2 in a row with poultry scores of 96 all out and 116 all out. On the other side, Chennai are enjoying good form this season away from home where they have won 3 of the 4 they have played.

It's no suprise I'll be taking Chennai here. The price is pretty good considering the two teams form. I'll stick with Du Ples with an outside bet on Dhoni for Chennai. Hyderabad very much a 2 man show in the batting line-up and it's just not worth picking one in this. I'm also quite tempted by the unders in this match but I'll stick with these three.

5pts Chennai Super Kings to beat Hyderabad Sunrisers 4/5 bet365
2pts Du Ples top Chennai batsman 7/2 bet365
1pt Dhoni top Chennai batsman 7/1 paddypower

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Difficult one to call for me today. I can see the value in Delhi but I would probably go the other way.

I'm going to take De Kock top batsman. He's looked solid in his last couple of matches, top scoring for his 2 out of the last 3. I'll take Rabada as top bowler for Delhi. The guy is on fire at the moment. I like Iyer for top batsman for Delhi, but that price is just too short. I can't be having Ke Kock at 3s and Iyer at 3 and a half when Shaw, Dhawan & Pant need to perish before hand.

2pts De Kock top batsman (Mumbai) 3/1 bet365
2pts Rabada top bowler (Delhi) 3/1 bet365
0.5pts K.Pollard MOTM 14/1 bet365

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KKR :ok

At Home :ok

Win the toss :ok

Against RCB.... :ok

..... who are missing De Villiers :ok

Possibly the biggest mismatch in IPL history, and yet it goes the way of the underdogs. I think this tournament’s lottery status is confirmed. As you can imagine, I lost an embarrassing sum of money on that match, I hope plenty of you did too, as we should all have had the proverbial mortgage on KKR there!

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