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Xtc12

Fancy Flat Flutters

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8 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Thanks, also looks like horses wearing head gear for the 1st time should be avoided. I must admit I don't like a selection to be wearing head-gear.

Geneneralised stats are a waste of time ,

It depends whos putting the headgear on, Paul Nicholls is one to keep an eye on ;)

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I would argue that they are not a complete waste of time. If the average POI is -23% then a return of -48% for horses wearing a hood 1st time is significant.

I do agree though that you need to dig deeper to find an edge, there are no easy ways to make a profit in this game. 

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Fanny Logan  14.25 Chester 1 Pt Win @ 6\1 WHill

Clear of rest when second to Mehdaayih at Yarmouth last year, then completed a straightforward task in comfortable fashion at Wetherby on return. Remains capable of better and the trip should suit. 

Secret Thoughts 14.25 Chester 1 Pt Win @ 10\3 Ladbrokes

Good-looking filly who won a maiden at Naas last season and returned with an encouraging fifth behind Lady Kaya in 1000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown. Not a guaranteed stayer upped markedly in trip. 

Gentile Bellini   15.35 Chester 1 Pt Win @ 9\1 Bet365

Cost a fortune as a yearling, not all that surprising given his outstanding pedigree, and first signs that he's getting his act together when off the mark at third attempt in maiden at Cork last time.

Norway  15.35 Chester 1 Pt Win @ 10\3 Paddy Power

Improved with each run last year, winning twice (including in listed company) before hitting the frame in a French Group 1. Very much the type to make a better 3-y-o, so should take the beating here. 

Sir dragonet   15.35 Chester 1 Pt Win @ 8\1 WHill

Unfancied in the betting prior to an impressive winning debut in soft ground at Tipperary and notable that connections sent him straight here, so not dismissed for all lack of experience is an issue.

Damon Runyon 16.05 Chester 1 Pt Win @ 6\1 Bet365

Well up to winning a race but another who has had plenty of chances and just second on his return at Lingfield over this trip having been gelded. Blinkers replace cheekpieces. Vulnerable. 

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22 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Gentile Bellini   15.35 Chester 1 Pt Win @ 9\1 Bet365

Non Runner

22 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Sir dragonet   15.35 Chester 1 Pt Win @ 8\1 WHill

1st @ 8\1 - raced green in rear, smooth headway from over 2f out, shaken up to lead approaching final furlong, quickened clear, impressive

Update 

Total Bets : 32

Wins : 3

Returns : 41

P/L : 9

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Mohawk 14.25 Chester 1 Pt Win @ 7\1 Bet365

Acquitted himself well in 7f Group races at the Curragh, and improved again when winning 7-runner Royal Lodge at Newmarket. Disappointing in the Dewhurst and up in trip for reappearance.

Circus Maximus 14.25 Chester 1 Pt Win @ 5\6 Bet365

Fist foal of a smart mare and off the mark at the second attempt in maidens at Gowran in September. Better form when filling the frame in Group company and he sets the clear standard up in trip. 

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23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Circus Maximus 14.25 Chester 1 Pt Win @ 5\6 Bet365

1st @ 5\4 -  tracked leader, niggled along from 5f out, pushed along to lead entering final 2f, kept up to work inside final furlong

Update 

Total Bets : 34

Wins : 4

Returns : 43.25

P/L : 9.25

SR : 11.76%

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Nette Rousse 18.20 Nottingham 1 Pt Win @ 50\1 Paddy Power

€235,000 yearling, Mastercraftsman filly. Half-sister to useful 2-y-o 6f winner Ninas Terz and high-class 6f-1½m winner Pakistan Star. Dam winner up to 1¼m (2-y-o 7f winner). Respected.

Victory Day 20.00 Ripon 1 Pt Win @ 5\2 WHill

Promising sort. 4/1, fourth of 15 in minor event at Redcar (7f) in November, having hopeless task from position. Has been gelded ahead of return, and remains with a good deal of potential. 

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On 5/9/2019 at 11:10 PM, Xtc12 said:

Nette Rousse 18.20 Nottingham 1 Pt Win @ 50\1 Paddy Power

6th -  slowly into stride, mid-division, headway on outside over 3f out, weakened over 1f out

On 5/9/2019 at 11:10 PM, Xtc12 said:

Victory Day 20.00 Ripon 1 Pt Win @ 5\2 WHill

1st @ 5\2 -  raced wide close up, headway over 1f out, led on bit entering final furlong, comfortable

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Sharja Silk  14.35 Haydock 1 Pt Win @ 5\6 WHill

Still a maiden following 9 attempts, but should put that right before long judged on solid reappearance second over 2m at Kempton where he finished clear of the rest. Cheekpieces applied.

Jacob's Pillow 17.40 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 40\1 Bet365

Starting to look well handicapped but has yet to show much this year.

Milton Road 20.45 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 6\1 Ladbrokes

Sixteen runs since last win in 2017. 11/4, creditable second of 11 in handicap at Musselburgh (7.2f, good to firm) 9 days ago. 

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Geepower 13.50 Beverley 1 Pt Win @ 33\1 Bet365

£20,000 Power colt. Closely related to 7f-1¼m winner Alshalaal and half-brother to 7f winner Illusive Force. 22/1, eighth of 10 in minor event at this C&D (good) on debut 8 days ago. 

Champagne Victory 14.20 Beverley 1 Pt Win @ 33\1 Bet365

€7,000 yearling, Bungle Inthejungle filly. 16/1, last of 9 in minor event at this C&D (good) on debut 8 days ago. Hard to make a case for. 

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On 5/11/2019 at 9:31 AM, Xtc12 said:

Sharja Silk  14.35 Haydock 1 Pt Win @ 5\6 WHill

4th -  tracked leader, driven over 4f out, ridden over 3f out, never able to get on terms, lost place inside final 2f, weakened final furlong

On 5/11/2019 at 9:31 AM, Xtc12 said:

Jacob's Pillow 17.40 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 40\1 Bet365

7th - prominent far side, ridden 2f out, kept on same pace inside final furlong, no chance with main group

On 5/11/2019 at 9:31 AM, Xtc12 said:

Milton Road 20.45 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 6\1 Ladbrokes

8th - close up, bumped over 1f out, faded inside final furlong

23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Geepower 13.50 Beverley 1 Pt Win @ 33\1 Bet365

4th - mid-division on outside, pushed along in 5th halfway, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace final furlong

23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Champagne Victory 14.20 Beverley 1 Pt Win @ 33\1 Bet365

5th -  led until inside final 2f, ridden over 1f out, no chance with winner, lost 2nd inside final furlong, weakened

 

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Mykindofsunshine 18.25 Bath 1 Pt Win @ 5\1 Bet365

Lightly-raced maiden. 7/1, very good third of 7 in handicap at Yarmouth (6f, good to firm) 22 days ago, running on. Has an appealing sprint pedigree and another who may have more to offer. 

Sacred Warner 20.25 Bath 1 Pt Win @ 8\1 Paddy Power

Lightly-raced maiden. Creditable sixth of 12 in handicap (8/1) at Lingfield (8f, AW) 22 days ago, needing stiffer test. Cheekpieces on first time but looks in need of a stiffer test of stamina.

Entitle 15.35 York 1 Pt Win @ 17\2 Paddy Power

Very well-related filly who was off the mark at the second attempt at Lingfield through the winter, though she made quite hard work of it and the form doesn't look anything special. 

Sparkle Roll 15.35 York 1 Pt Win @ 11\4 WHill

Really well-bred filly who was off the mark at the second attempt last year and took another step forward when readily landing a good novice at Sandown last month. Big player up in grade.

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Mykindofsunshine 18.25 Bath 1 Pt Win @ 5\1  Bet365 - 5th

Sacred Warner 20.25 Bath 1 Pt Win @ 8\1 Paddy Power10th

Entitle 15.35 York 1 Pt Win @ 17\2 Paddy Power2nd

Sparkle Roll 15.35 York 1 Pt Win @ 11\4 WHill - 7th

Too Darn Hot 15.00 York 1 Pt Win @ 6\5 Paddy Power

Maintained unbeaten record with a truly awesome performance in the Dewhurst at Newmarket on final 2-y-o start. Missed 2000 Guineas due to a setback but remains a colt of huge potential. Bred to stay. 

Turgenev 15.00 York 1 Pt Win @ 50\1 Bet365

Progressive dual winner last season who left reappearance well behind when third in listed event at Epsom but very much the yard's second string. 

 

 

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Too Darn Hot 15.00 York 1 Pt Win @ 6\5 Paddy Power  - 2nd

Turgenev 15.00 York 1 Pt Win @ 50\1 Bet365   - 5th

Twist N Shake 14.25 York 1 Pt Win @ 15\8 Paddy Power

Pushed a subsequent listed winner close on reappearance and had no difficulty going one better in 13-runner maiden at Nottingham (8.3f) last week. Smart prospect and one to keep onside.

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Twist N Shake 14.25 York 1 Pt Win @ 15\8 Paddy Power2nd

Gentle Look 20.35 Doncaster 1 Pt Win @ 5\2 WHill

Belatedly delivered on early promise under a positive ride at Redcar recently and he's certainly bred to go on improving, so boasts solid claims with the further drop in trip unlikely to be an issue.

Headman 15.00 Newbury 1 Pt Win @ 9\1 Ladbrokes

Impressive Newcastle debut winner in November prior to chasing home a potentially useful type at Kempton. Pulled too hard on C&D reappearance (soft) and mark for this handicap bow looks tough.

Royal Brave 15.55 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 16\1 Bet365

Below form eighth of 16 in handicap (10/1) at Musselburgh (5f, good) 28 days ago, not ideally placed. Not dismissed. 

 

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Never posted here today, missed one winner (need to keep it in my results as a backtest)

Rayong 14.10 Carlisle 1 Pt Win @ SP 

1st @ 7\2 -  tracked leaders, ridden to challenge 1f out, led inside final furlong, kept on

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Danny Ocean 14.00 Ayr 1 Pt Win @ 5\1 bet365

£42,000 yearling, bred to be sharp and speedy, and has shaped well in 5f events at Leicester and Pontefract, caught wide last time. Could still have a bigger effort to come. 

Lord of the Lodg14.00 Ayr 1 Pt Win @ 8\1 Bet365

Foaled February 9. €4,200 foal, €35,000 yearling, Dandy Man colt. Dam unraced half-sister to smart winner up to 1½m Forbearing. 

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On 5/21/2019 at 11:30 PM, Xtc12 said:

Lord of the Lodg14.00 Ayr 1 Pt Win @ 8\1 Bet365

1st @ 8\1 - slightly hampered start, held up, headway over 2f out, led over 1f out, stayed on well

Sangarius 20.10 Sandown 1 Pt Win @ 7\2 Paddy Power

Looked destined for the top when winning a Newmarket maiden and a Doncaster listed race in early autumn. Seemed to find the Dewhurst all too much but retains plenty of potential. Tongue tie fitted. 

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Byzantia 15.55 Haydock 1 Pt Win @ 3\1 Bet365

Foaled January 10. Golden Horn filly. Half-sister to Ardiente (won well over 7f on debut at 2 yrs). Dam 2-y-o 5f winner who stayed 6f. Makes plenty of appeal on paper. 

 

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On 5/23/2019 at 11:18 PM, Xtc12 said:

Byzantia 15.55 Haydock 1 Pt Win @ 3\1 Bet365

5th -  dwelt keen in touch, headway on inner to go close up halfway, pushed along over 1f out, kept on same pace

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Miss Lucy 17.05 Carlisle 1 Pt Win @ 15\2 Ladbrokes

Foaled May 11. €24,000 foal, 32,000 gns yearling, Kodiac filly. Closely related to very smart 9.5f-14.6f winner Arctic Cosmos and half-sister to several winners, including 7f winner Street Duel.

Sparkle In His Eye 19.05 Sandown 1 Pt Win @ 10\3 WHill

Well-related sort who made hard work of things but got the job done at Newcastle in January. Respectable third under a penalty at Windsor since and remains with potential now handicapping.

Listen to the Wind 16.50 Yarmouth 1 Pt Win @ 3\1 Coral

Promising individual. Sixth of 9 in minor event at Haydock (8.2f, heavy, 13/8) 33 days ago. Makes handicap debut. Remains capable of better. 

 

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Miss Lucy 17.05 Carlisle 1 Pt Win @ 15\2 Ladbrokes   -   4th

Sparkle In His Eye 19.05 Sandown 1 Pt Win @ 10\3 WHill   -   4th

Listen to the Wind 16.50 Yarmouth 1 Pt Win @ 3\1 Coral   -   1st @ 3\1 :cigar

For today :

Oso Rapido 14.15 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 4\1 Bet365

3/1, green when 7 lengths second of 9 on Ripon debut (6f, good to firm) 15 days ago. Open to improvement. 

 

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23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Oso Rapido 14.15 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 4\1 Bet365

3rd - chased leaders, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and every chance when hung left under pressure inside final furlong, no extra in 3rd and eased towards finish

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Yarrow Gate 14.00 Beverley 1 Pt Win @ 9\1 Ladbrokes

Twice-raced maiden. 3/1, second of 10 in maiden at Carlisle (5f, heavy) 9 days ago, running on. Open to progress. 

Another Boy 20.00 Chepstow 1 Pt Win @ 12\1 Paddy Power

Course winner. Eleven runs since last win in 2017. 8/1, eleventh of 13 in handicap at Windsor (6f, good to firm) 33 days ago. 

Clareyblue 15.20 Newmarket 1 Pt Win @ 9\1 Bet365

Foaled April 11. £46,000 yearling, Zebedee colt. Half-brother to several winners, including useful winner up to 5.5f Elnadim Star and useful 6f winner Red Pike. One to note in the betting for clues.

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Classy Moon 17.30 Carlisle 1 Pt Win @ 9\4 Bet365

Foaled March 21. £220,000 2-y-o, Malibu Moon colt. Brother to winner Hy Brasil and half-brother to winner Carolina South. Dam, 1m/8.5f winner. Interesting newcomer.

Mischief Star 17.50 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 8\1 WHill

£30,000 Due Diligence half-brother to useful winner up to 7f Waqaas and winner up to 6f Rockies Spirit. In good hands. Check betting. 

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