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Xtc12

Fancy Flat Flutters

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Manolith 14.00 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 3\1 Bet365

3rd -  tracked leader, every chance over 1f out, no extra final furlong

 

Zumurund 14.30 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 10\1 Ladbrokes

8th -  behind, headway over 1f out, never dangerous

 

Hayadh 16.15 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 16\1 Bet365

1st @ 16\1 - chased leaders, every chance over 1f out, led inside final furlong, kept on well   :)

Update 

Total Bets : 24

Wins : 2

Returns : 32

P/L : 8

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Geepower 13.55 Beverley 1 Pt Win @ 16\1 WHill

Foaled February 2. £20,000 Power colt. Closely related to 7f-1¼m winner Alshalaal and half-brother to 7f winner Illusive Force. Dam 2-y-o 5f winner. Betting should guide.

Champagne Victory  14.30 beverley 1 Pt Win @ 25\1 Paddy Power

Foaled March 26. €7,000 yearling, Bungle Inthejungle filly. Dam lightly raced, sister to useful winner up to 11f Courtofversailles. 

Yarrow gate 14.30 Beverley 1 Pt Win @ 7\1 Paddy Power

Foaled March 13. Garswood filly. Half-sister to 6f winner Melrose Way. Dam winner up to 7f (including at 2 yrs). 

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I seem to recall reading somewhere that, contrary to popular belief, horses do not perform better on their 1st run after being gelded. Does anybody have any data to prove / disprove this?

I don't think I'd be very co-operative if someone had done this to me !

Only just noticed the above question

over last 12 months

image.png.212fd6b9b4b3b6b8a8e2960ca5953a83.png

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8 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Thanks, also looks like horses wearing head gear for the 1st time should be avoided. I must admit I don't like a selection to be wearing head-gear.

Geneneralised stats are a waste of time ,

It depends whos putting the headgear on, Paul Nicholls is one to keep an eye on ;)

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I would argue that they are not a complete waste of time. If the average POI is -23% then a return of -48% for horses wearing a hood 1st time is significant.

I do agree though that you need to dig deeper to find an edge, there are no easy ways to make a profit in this game. 

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Fanny Logan  14.25 Chester 1 Pt Win @ 6\1 WHill

Clear of rest when second to Mehdaayih at Yarmouth last year, then completed a straightforward task in comfortable fashion at Wetherby on return. Remains capable of better and the trip should suit. 

Secret Thoughts 14.25 Chester 1 Pt Win @ 10\3 Ladbrokes

Good-looking filly who won a maiden at Naas last season and returned with an encouraging fifth behind Lady Kaya in 1000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown. Not a guaranteed stayer upped markedly in trip. 

Gentile Bellini   15.35 Chester 1 Pt Win @ 9\1 Bet365

Cost a fortune as a yearling, not all that surprising given his outstanding pedigree, and first signs that he's getting his act together when off the mark at third attempt in maiden at Cork last time.

Norway  15.35 Chester 1 Pt Win @ 10\3 Paddy Power

Improved with each run last year, winning twice (including in listed company) before hitting the frame in a French Group 1. Very much the type to make a better 3-y-o, so should take the beating here. 

Sir dragonet   15.35 Chester 1 Pt Win @ 8\1 WHill

Unfancied in the betting prior to an impressive winning debut in soft ground at Tipperary and notable that connections sent him straight here, so not dismissed for all lack of experience is an issue.

Damon Runyon 16.05 Chester 1 Pt Win @ 6\1 Bet365

Well up to winning a race but another who has had plenty of chances and just second on his return at Lingfield over this trip having been gelded. Blinkers replace cheekpieces. Vulnerable. 

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22 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Gentile Bellini   15.35 Chester 1 Pt Win @ 9\1 Bet365

Non Runner

22 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Sir dragonet   15.35 Chester 1 Pt Win @ 8\1 WHill

1st @ 8\1 - raced green in rear, smooth headway from over 2f out, shaken up to lead approaching final furlong, quickened clear, impressive

Update 

Total Bets : 32

Wins : 3

Returns : 41

P/L : 9

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Mohawk 14.25 Chester 1 Pt Win @ 7\1 Bet365

Acquitted himself well in 7f Group races at the Curragh, and improved again when winning 7-runner Royal Lodge at Newmarket. Disappointing in the Dewhurst and up in trip for reappearance.

Circus Maximus 14.25 Chester 1 Pt Win @ 5\6 Bet365

Fist foal of a smart mare and off the mark at the second attempt in maidens at Gowran in September. Better form when filling the frame in Group company and he sets the clear standard up in trip. 

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23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Circus Maximus 14.25 Chester 1 Pt Win @ 5\6 Bet365

1st @ 5\4 -  tracked leader, niggled along from 5f out, pushed along to lead entering final 2f, kept up to work inside final furlong

Update 

Total Bets : 34

Wins : 4

Returns : 43.25

P/L : 9.25

SR : 11.76%

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Nette Rousse 18.20 Nottingham 1 Pt Win @ 50\1 Paddy Power

€235,000 yearling, Mastercraftsman filly. Half-sister to useful 2-y-o 6f winner Ninas Terz and high-class 6f-1½m winner Pakistan Star. Dam winner up to 1¼m (2-y-o 7f winner). Respected.

Victory Day 20.00 Ripon 1 Pt Win @ 5\2 WHill

Promising sort. 4/1, fourth of 15 in minor event at Redcar (7f) in November, having hopeless task from position. Has been gelded ahead of return, and remains with a good deal of potential. 

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On 5/9/2019 at 11:10 PM, Xtc12 said:

Nette Rousse 18.20 Nottingham 1 Pt Win @ 50\1 Paddy Power

6th -  slowly into stride, mid-division, headway on outside over 3f out, weakened over 1f out

On 5/9/2019 at 11:10 PM, Xtc12 said:

Victory Day 20.00 Ripon 1 Pt Win @ 5\2 WHill

1st @ 5\2 -  raced wide close up, headway over 1f out, led on bit entering final furlong, comfortable

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Sharja Silk  14.35 Haydock 1 Pt Win @ 5\6 WHill

Still a maiden following 9 attempts, but should put that right before long judged on solid reappearance second over 2m at Kempton where he finished clear of the rest. Cheekpieces applied.

Jacob's Pillow 17.40 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 40\1 Bet365

Starting to look well handicapped but has yet to show much this year.

Milton Road 20.45 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 6\1 Ladbrokes

Sixteen runs since last win in 2017. 11/4, creditable second of 11 in handicap at Musselburgh (7.2f, good to firm) 9 days ago. 

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Geepower 13.50 Beverley 1 Pt Win @ 33\1 Bet365

£20,000 Power colt. Closely related to 7f-1¼m winner Alshalaal and half-brother to 7f winner Illusive Force. 22/1, eighth of 10 in minor event at this C&D (good) on debut 8 days ago. 

Champagne Victory 14.20 Beverley 1 Pt Win @ 33\1 Bet365

€7,000 yearling, Bungle Inthejungle filly. 16/1, last of 9 in minor event at this C&D (good) on debut 8 days ago. Hard to make a case for. 

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On 5/11/2019 at 9:31 AM, Xtc12 said:

Sharja Silk  14.35 Haydock 1 Pt Win @ 5\6 WHill

4th -  tracked leader, driven over 4f out, ridden over 3f out, never able to get on terms, lost place inside final 2f, weakened final furlong

On 5/11/2019 at 9:31 AM, Xtc12 said:

Jacob's Pillow 17.40 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 40\1 Bet365

7th - prominent far side, ridden 2f out, kept on same pace inside final furlong, no chance with main group

On 5/11/2019 at 9:31 AM, Xtc12 said:

Milton Road 20.45 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 6\1 Ladbrokes

8th - close up, bumped over 1f out, faded inside final furlong

23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Geepower 13.50 Beverley 1 Pt Win @ 33\1 Bet365

4th - mid-division on outside, pushed along in 5th halfway, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace final furlong

23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Champagne Victory 14.20 Beverley 1 Pt Win @ 33\1 Bet365

5th -  led until inside final 2f, ridden over 1f out, no chance with winner, lost 2nd inside final furlong, weakened

 

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Mykindofsunshine 18.25 Bath 1 Pt Win @ 5\1 Bet365

Lightly-raced maiden. 7/1, very good third of 7 in handicap at Yarmouth (6f, good to firm) 22 days ago, running on. Has an appealing sprint pedigree and another who may have more to offer. 

Sacred Warner 20.25 Bath 1 Pt Win @ 8\1 Paddy Power

Lightly-raced maiden. Creditable sixth of 12 in handicap (8/1) at Lingfield (8f, AW) 22 days ago, needing stiffer test. Cheekpieces on first time but looks in need of a stiffer test of stamina.

Entitle 15.35 York 1 Pt Win @ 17\2 Paddy Power

Very well-related filly who was off the mark at the second attempt at Lingfield through the winter, though she made quite hard work of it and the form doesn't look anything special. 

Sparkle Roll 15.35 York 1 Pt Win @ 11\4 WHill

Really well-bred filly who was off the mark at the second attempt last year and took another step forward when readily landing a good novice at Sandown last month. Big player up in grade.

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Mykindofsunshine 18.25 Bath 1 Pt Win @ 5\1  Bet365 - 5th

Sacred Warner 20.25 Bath 1 Pt Win @ 8\1 Paddy Power10th

Entitle 15.35 York 1 Pt Win @ 17\2 Paddy Power2nd

Sparkle Roll 15.35 York 1 Pt Win @ 11\4 WHill7th

Too Darn Hot 15.00 York 1 Pt Win @ 6\5 Paddy Power

Maintained unbeaten record with a truly awesome performance in the Dewhurst at Newmarket on final 2-y-o start. Missed 2000 Guineas due to a setback but remains a colt of huge potential. Bred to stay. 

Turgenev 15.00 York 1 Pt Win @ 50\1 Bet365

Progressive dual winner last season who left reappearance well behind when third in listed event at Epsom but very much the yard's second string. 

 

 

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Too Darn Hot 15.00 York 1 Pt Win @ 6\5 Paddy Power  - 2nd

Turgenev 15.00 York 1 Pt Win @ 50\1 Bet365   - 5th

Twist N Shake 14.25 York 1 Pt Win @ 15\8 Paddy Power

Pushed a subsequent listed winner close on reappearance and had no difficulty going one better in 13-runner maiden at Nottingham (8.3f) last week. Smart prospect and one to keep onside.

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Twist N Shake 14.25 York 1 Pt Win @ 15\8 Paddy Power2nd

Gentle Look 20.35 Doncaster 1 Pt Win @ 5\2 WHill

Belatedly delivered on early promise under a positive ride at Redcar recently and he's certainly bred to go on improving, so boasts solid claims with the further drop in trip unlikely to be an issue.

Headman 15.00 Newbury 1 Pt Win @ 9\1 Ladbrokes

Impressive Newcastle debut winner in November prior to chasing home a potentially useful type at Kempton. Pulled too hard on C&D reappearance (soft) and mark for this handicap bow looks tough.

Royal Brave 15.55 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 16\1 Bet365

Below form eighth of 16 in handicap (10/1) at Musselburgh (5f, good) 28 days ago, not ideally placed. Not dismissed. 

 

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Never posted here today, missed one winner (need to keep it in my results as a backtest)

Rayong 14.10 Carlisle 1 Pt Win @ SP 

1st @ 7\2 -  tracked leaders, ridden to challenge 1f out, led inside final furlong, kept on

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Danny Ocean 14.00 Ayr 1 Pt Win @ 5\1 bet365

£42,000 yearling, bred to be sharp and speedy, and has shaped well in 5f events at Leicester and Pontefract, caught wide last time. Could still have a bigger effort to come. 

Lord of the Lodg14.00 Ayr 1 Pt Win @ 8\1 Bet365

Foaled February 9. €4,200 foal, €35,000 yearling, Dandy Man colt. Dam unraced half-sister to smart winner up to 1½m Forbearing. 

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On 5/21/2019 at 11:30 PM, Xtc12 said:

Lord of the Lodg14.00 Ayr 1 Pt Win @ 8\1 Bet365

1st @ 8\1 - slightly hampered start, held up, headway over 2f out, led over 1f out, stayed on well

Sangarius 20.10 Sandown 1 Pt Win @ 7\2 Paddy Power

Looked destined for the top when winning a Newmarket maiden and a Doncaster listed race in early autumn. Seemed to find the Dewhurst all too much but retains plenty of potential. Tongue tie fitted. 

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