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NickP

A system I have never followed

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Yeah that made you look LOL.

So I have often wondered, and never really paper traded, if the following would work.

The idea is that, ultimately, at best, only one Top 10 seeded player at best could win any particular tournament.

So that gives you nine winning lays, possibly ten if an outsider takes the title.

So simply you lay each Top 10 seed in each match they play in a "stop at a winner" until they lose a match, to ultimately win your initial target. Until, either, ten winning lines come in, or nine at worst.

So if laying each Top 10 seed for £10 once they lose a game, you are bound to win £90. 

Your only losing line would be the 4/5/6 games won by the tournament winner, which would be losing lays for you.

Would it be profitable?

Does the above make any sense?

Does anyone have historic data to trade it against?

Or is this mad?

 

Nick

 

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Hi. I'm in some sort of a holiday mode this week, so my brain isn't really working properly, but the thought that I'm having right now is that you're wrong with the actual calculations somewhere. Also, note that the players are eventually going to start facing each other and that probably throws a curveball into the entire system.

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Yes I appreciate that seeds will play eachother, but ultimately only one seed at best can go a tournament unbeaten. Hence why 9 lines would win, possibly 10 if a non top ten seed won the tournament.

I guess it would need a decent bank as well, but need to find some historic tennis results to paper trade it to see if it works or not.

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@NickP - I once asked a Maths Professor how many bets a system would need to be taken seriously and have a good chance of success in the future.

His answer was at least 2000 bets at a minimum, then you'll have a 95% chance of similar success with a 5% variational swing (bigger than it sounds). ;) 

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lol  ----   If it was that easy ,  the Punters would be driving the nice cars.        First hurdle punters have is the 5---8  percent commission to Betfair.

More to the other bookmakers , usually.  

   Would take great knowledge , Patience & fortune to overcome that .      Some Traders apparently do , but I think we all face a tough task as punters.   

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