Hunter Chases - 5.15 Ludlow and 5.40 Chepstow

[Darran]

Jet lag is a wonderful thing! I am starting writing this at 7.20am Melbourne time and I have already been awake for a couple of hours. As I was arriving at the airport the Exeter Hunter Chase was taking place and I was rather surprised by the result. Clearly the favourite hasn't run his race and he was still feeling the effects of the Catterick race. With Maxwell chasing the amateur title he is clearly wanting to run his horses as often as possible and it will be interesting to see if he learns his lesson that horses can't always perform so quickly after a hard race. The winner was clearly impressive and although the race was pretty weak in the end he is progressing nicely.

Two races on Thursday and I will start at Chepstow where classy horse Sausalito Sunrise makes his debut for Olly Murphy as well as his Hunter Chase debut. He was last seen finishing lame in the Cross-Country Chase 2 years ago. He didn't go to the sales so we don't know how much they paid for him, but he had a wind op last September. The problem is it is pure guess work as to how much ability he retains and not only that the market usually tells a massive story about horses from this yard. If he drifts then chances are he probably won't be winning although it isn't much of a race.

Double Ross stayed on into 2nd at Leicester over a trip too short for him, but he only stayed on past beaten horses so I am not sure he achieved an awful lot that day. It was an improvement on the Warwick run though. I can see why people might be prepared to take a chance on him, but it all depends to how much ability the favourite retains.

I wouldn't totally rule out Kelvingrove who did win a Taunton handicap off 119 two starts back. He had 10 months off before making his pointing debut finishing 4th at Barbury where he probably needed the run. He is only 9 and although he would need the other two to under perform it wouldn't be a massive surprise if they did.

I think its impossible to have a bet on the race at this stage given the guesswork over the favourite so it is a no bet for me.

The Ludlow race is of more interest and it sees Arthur's Secret take on Ballotin. For all of about 2 minutes I see the former was 2/1 and no surprise that didn't last long and the even money is under pressure now. It was a huge performance here last time and it was the first time under rules that he has truly shown what he has been doing in points. He is clearly back to his best this season as I don't think he was quite at his best last term. He was also finally ridden under rules as he is in points in that she just let the horse get on with it and he does the rest. The drop down in trip certainly isn't of concern and I am a little surprised he didn't feature among the 44 entered in the Aintree Foxhunters because  I think he is good enough to go close to wining it.

Ballotin is entered at Aintree and he was solid at Leicester down to 2m last time although as mentioned above I am not sure he achieved a great deal in winning it. Obviously the Haydock run was good, but he couldn't keep up with Road To Rome and I don't think he will be able to keep up with Arthur's Secret either. 

Delegate's last run under rules was in a Grade 1 at Aintree, but he was outclassed in that and he didn't show a great deal in his point debut for new connections when he was pulled up in a 4 runner race. I suspect he is capable of better than that, but it would be a surprise if he was suddenly able to put in a performance good enough to beat the two at the head of the betting.

Hidden Cargo was beaten in a Restricted last time and should be a bigger price for me. Numbercruncher was behind Ballotin at Leicester, and I would imagine he will come on a lot for that run. He was going well in this last year when unseating 4 out, but this trip has always stretched him and given the pace Arthur's Secret is capable of going he won't be able to keep up with that. If ridden sensibly though it wouldn't surprise me if he came 3rd.

It should be a 2 horse race but firm preference is with Arthur's Secret for me and a repeat of his last run will be good enough to win this.

Arthur's Secret 3pts @ Evs with William Hill and BetVictor

[yossa6133]

Crikey, 2/5 now! Got on earlier at slight odds on.

 

Edit, didn't notice the 3rd fav is a NR, hopefully not a big r4.

Edited March 21, 2019 by yossa6133

[yossa6133]

20p rule 4, I don't really know how they work them out, the non-runner must have been around 10/1.