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StevieDay1983

Euro 2020 Qualifier Predictions > Mar 21st - 26th

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San Marino vs Scotland

Hopefully, our brilliant Scottish punters have finally awoken from their slumber after the humiliating 3-0 loss away to Kazakhstan. Trust me, as a Wales and Cardiff fan, I've certainly felt the pain of results like that. Has your national side ever been beaten by Leyton Orient in a friendly before? Scotland have a chance to get back on track in this 5pm kick-off on Sunday against San Marino at the San Marino Stadium.

San Marino are widely regarded as the worst international side in Europe having only ever won 1 match in their history. That was a 1-0 win against Liechtenstein in a friendly back on 28th April, 2004. This is a side that most semi-professional sides in the UK would give a good game. Franco Varrella's men have already lost their opening game of this group stage 5-0 away to Cyprus.

Scotland simply need a convincing win. The defeat to Kazakhstan ranks as one of their worst results in their history and put to shame the glorious past of Scottish football that once burned so brightly. Alex McLeish will be looking for a reaction and I think he'll get it. Even the most incompetent manager should see his players show pride in the shirt after a result like the last one.

I backed Scotland to do the business against Kazakhstan and I got it wrong. I think the whole world got it wrong. Nobody saw that result and performance coming. This is different. San Marino are awful. They have failed to score in their last 9 matches and have conceded 34 goals during that time. If Scotland don't run out by at least a 3 goal margin then McLeish could find his job under even more pressure than it is now.

Scotland -3 @ 2.00 with Betfair

Anytime Scorer: James Forrest @ 2.05 with Ladbrokes

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Northern Ireland vs Belarus

Northern Ireland began their 2020 European Championship qualification campaign exactly as we expected with a dogged 2-0 win over Estonia in midweek. Michael O'Neill's side will look to make it two wins from two matches when they face Belarus in a 7:45pm kick-off at Windsor Park on Sunday evening.

The Green and White Army were back to their structured and hard-working best. It was a positive start but with the likes of Netherlands and Germany still to come they will be keen to make it 100% from two games against Igor Kriuschenko's side. Anything else could seriously jeopardise Northern Ireland's qualification hopes.

Belarus suffered a heavy 4-0 loss away to Netherlands in their opening game. Did the fact that Belarus have secured a play-off spot through the UEFA Nations League have any influence on that? Will it tonight? Who knows? This is a Belarus side that hadn't lost in 6 matches before that midweek defeat. So they should not be underestimated.

This will be the first time these two nations have met since May 2016 when Northern Ireland won a friendly 3-0 just before their Euro 2016 campaign. It will be the first competitive encounter so it'll be interesting to see how the two sides set-up. I have a feeling Northern Ireland should win this. It'll be tighter than the Estonia game but a narrow 1-0 win sounds likely. Niall McGinn is in excellent scoring form if you fancy that as a cheeky side bet.

Northern Ireland to Win @ 1.80 with Bet365

Total Goals Scored Under 1.5 @ 2.50 with MarathonBet

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Kazakhstan v Russia

After annihilating Scotland 3:0 a few days ago, the Kazakhs’ confidence will be sky-high. It’s a rare occasion for the home crowd to see a victory in a competitive match. They will try to carry the momentum into their second game and take advantage of the fixture list which enabled them to start with two straight home games. However, their last two matches against Russia finished with 0:3 losses. After reaching the quarterfinals of the World Cup playing at home, Russia have been on a downward trend. They couldn’t win their Nations League group, and they lost their first qualifier away to the absolute favorite Belgium on Thursday. They have to bounce back today and are indeed the better team, but I’ll back the draw with minimum stake at average odds of 3.40 due to Kazakhstan’s performance against Scotland.

 

Hungary v Croatia

Another draw with minimum stake can be attempted as a bet on Hungary v Croatia. Hungary have two faces – terrible away and almost flawless at home. They’ve won 6 of the last 7 competitive games at their stadium. After losing their match from Matchday 1 away to Slovakia, their back is against the wall to perform today.

Croatia, on their behalf, don’t look like the same team who won silver medals at the World Cup. They barely managed to beat Azerbaijan at home on Thursday, and today’s game is, at least on paper, much harder. Good news for the Croats is the return in the squad of key team members such as Rebic, Brozovic and Lovren. Their expected problems are at the back – 4 of the 5 players at the back (goalkeeper + defense) who were heroes in Russia last year, won’t be able to play. This was hinted at on Thursday when Azerbaijan scored a goal that was definitely avoidable by more careful defending. At least the goal was beautiful. :) The draw is priced at 3.75 and in my opinion a small stake on that pick is worth it.

 

Slovenia v North Macedonia

Slovenia are priced at 1.85 to take care of North Macedonia at home. The Slovenians won a point away to Israel, which isn’t perfect for them but also isn’t terrible. Backing that draw up with three points at home tonight is vital. They have more quality than their recent results show. Slovenia couldn’t get a single win in six games in the Nations League, getting relegated to the last Division D. However, all of their losses were with one goal difference. After they started with 0 points from 3 games, they made a coaching change which improved their performances marginally. Their last 4 games have finished in 1:1 draws.

Today’s the perfect opportunity for them to finally win. North Macedonia are in a good period and won their Nations League group, securing at least a playoff spot for EURO 2020. However, the quality of their opponents in Division D was weak and can’t be compared to the higher divisions. They lost 4:0 away to Armenia (who lost 0:1 at the same stadium to Gibraltar). North Macedonia are much better in front of their own fans than away.

The recent H2H record favors the Macedonians, but all streaks come to an end. Slovenia know that they are in the easiest EURO 2020 Qualifiers group and that if they don’t win today, it will most probably cost them their chances to qualify. I am on a home win on average odds of 1.85 with 5/5 confidence.

 

Netherlands v Germany

A football classic is also on today’s schedule – Netherlands host Germany. The same fixtures was a part of the Nations League several months ago, and The Oranje were comfortable 3:0 winners. I am backing them again tonight. Both teams are in a restructuring process, but at the two different spectrums of that process. Netherlands missed the last two major international tournaments and made big changes to their squad. After more than half a decade of mediocre performances and results, they finally resemble the formidable force they have always been in European football history, reaching the final stages of World Cups and European Championships regularly.

Germany, on the other hand, are at the very beginning of their restructuring after the terrible 2018 they had. After getting knocked out in the group stage as defending champions at the World Cup, they also finished last in the Nations League group, getting relegated to Division B. The coach and the players are highly criticized from the local press and fans. Three remarkable players from their successful 2014 World Cup campaign were removed from the squad – Jérôme Boateng, Mats Hummels and Thomas Müller. Fresh young faces constitute the German team now, but they need time to gel. That was evident on Wednesday in the draw with Serbia in a friendly match. An away game at the Netherlands is not the best game to go next to. Home win with 3/5 units on average odds of 2.40 seem like a reasonable bet.

Edited by Vocelov

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Two bets for me:

Treble: Poland, Belgium and England to win - combined odds around 1.8

Poland started well against Austria and should win easily against Latvia. The guests are poor.

Belgium is a very strong team and I expect them to win in Cyprus, even though the hosts tend to over-perform at home.

England should be too strong for Montenegro, who played well in Bulgaria and had a few decent chances on counter-attacks and conceded a goal from of a non-existent penalty. But Montenegro could not handle well the pressure from Bulgaria so they will be in trouble against England, who are on a different level.

 

Slovenia - North Macedonia - both teams to score, odds around 2.1

Slovenia are not known for keeping clean sheets and neither are their opponents. The Macedonians have scored in their last few matches so I don't see them parking the bus and playing for a 0:0.

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Euro 2020 Qual.

England has over 2.5 goals in their last 4 games.
Montenegro has under 2.5 goals in their last 3 home games.
Turkey has under 2.5 goals in their last 3 home games.
France scored in last 14 home games.
Iceland scored over 1.5 goals in last 3 away games.

You can find interesting 38 Football Betting Streaks for 25.03.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-25-03-2019-13884

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One bet for me tonight : 

Cyprus vs Belgium : Belgium -1.5 AH @ 1.4

Sounds to me like printing money. Belgium isn't exactly the kind of team to hold back and be happy with 1-0 wins, as their records can testify. Minus Boyata, Belgium is playing with the same players that won against Russia 3-1 a few days ago. The game will take place in Cyprus, whose time zone and climate (at this time of the year, at least) isn't that different from Belgium. Belgium to win to nil  @ 1.5 sounds also fine, though stupid GK mistake can happen (as it did against Russia), so i'll stick with 1.4. 

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As usual in every qualifying process, the England national team was impressive at the opening and was forced to host the Czech Republic at 5-0. He is currently being tested in Montenegro and is in place for two in the group. It is not easy to play the Southgate team in this game, but it has the first reason for winning
MONTENEGRO vs ENGLAND @@ ENGLAND, odds 1.50

Loss with ... Fernando Santos's good day for Portugal, after staying 0-0 on Friday night against Ukraine and even at home. So in the new game in front of her audience, this time against Serbia, Ronaldo and his company have to find a way to get to their first three-pointer in the process and to report the premiere gown. Serbia is quite risky and quality, but back is slow and it will be difficult for today
PORTUGAL vs SERBIA @@ PORTUGAL, odds 1.65

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Kosovo - Bulgaria

Kosovo to win @ 2.55

Kosovo are playing very enthusiastically in front of their emphatic crowd. The stadium is full no matter if they play Spain or San Marino. They are flying high after securing a playoff spot for EURO 2020 by winning their Nations League group. They almost beat Denmark in a friendly last week but conceded a goal in the final minutes. They are very motivated for another positive result tonight.

The opposition provides perfect opportunity for that. Bulgaria are not playing convincing football at the moment. They drew at home to Montenegro on Friday mostly thanks to a huge refereeing mistake which gave them a penalty that never existed. They entered the match with injury problems which were exacerbated after Chochev got a horrific injury that will leave him out of action for at least six months. In addition, Bulgaria are a weak away team, they often crumble under pressure in games with huge significance like today’s one, and they don’t handle euphoric fan support for the other team very well.

All of the above leads to a shrewd bet on odds of 2.55 on Kosovo to win with a 6/10 confidence level.

 

Portugal - Serbia

BTTS @ 2.10

Both teams have immense talent in attack. Portugal are the reigning European Champions and were very unlucky not to win versus Ukraine in Matchday 1. Cristiano Ronaldo and Co will be motivated to make up for this with a victory today. Serbia are also a great team with the likes of Tadic, Mitrovic and Milinkovic-Savic in front. They demonstrated their quality even with their second unit in a friendly at Germany last week which ended 1:1. Both teams are in a good form and have guaranteed playoff spots for the final phase of the competition. A bet on both teams to score at these odds has value and I will jump on it with 6/10 betting units.

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Montenegro vs England

Group A enters its second round of matches tonight when Montenegro welcome England to the Podgorica City Stadium in a 7:45pm kick-off. The home side were frustrated by a draw against Bulgaria in their opening game and the away side will be looking to continue their 100% start to the campaign.

Montenegro are a side that have often been seen as a potential banana skin. The team had its so-called "golden era" between 2010 and 2014 that saw them come close to reaching the 2012 European Championship and the 2014 World Cup. This current side under Ljubisa Tumbakovic isn't quite as highly-regarded as that crop of players but they still have the likes of Stefan Savic, Nikola Vukcevic, and Stevan Jovetic in their ranks. Unfortunately, the latter of those three players is ruled out through injury here.

England are looking like one of world football's major forces once again. The run to the 2018 World Cup Semi-Finals was seen as fortuitous by some, expected by others, and a huge achievement by more. The qualification for the UEFA Nations League Finals has added weight to the claims that Gareth Southgate is taking this squad in the right direction. Their opening game 5-0 demolition of Czech Republic further proof that this Three Lions side is living up to the hype.

The Three Lions have drawn their last two matches away to Montenegro. The first occasion was a 2-2 draw back on 7th October, 2011. Wayne Rooney got sent off in that game and Montenegro grabbed an injury-time equaliser. The second occasion was on 26th March, 2013. Once again, Montenegro came from behind to seal a 1-1 draw.

There is hope for England here that this might be a business-like match for their talented players. Montenegro have lost their last two home games and haven't managed to score in either. Jovetic's absence means they could be up against it again. Betting in favour of an England clean sheet win could be the best value bet here.

England to Win to Nil @ 1.95 with Ladbrokes

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.00 with Bet365

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Euro 2020 Qual.

Spain has over 2.5 goals in their last 3 away games.
Italy has under 2.5 goals in their last 5 games.
Denmark allowed opponents to score over 1.5 goals in last 5 games.
Sweden has under 2.5 goals in their last 3 away games.

You can find interesting 35 Football Betting Streaks for 26.03.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-26-03-2019-13887

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Portugal v Serbia

Betting suggestion: Serbia team totals over 0,5 @1,854 Pinnacle

Short preview: I tweeted about this match this morning, expressing my leans to Serbia covering the Asian handicap +1 and odds for this selection jumped from starting 1,63 to 2,04. I don’t have any news about it, but seeing the potential lineups nothing has really changed in the squad of Serbia. Of course, the fact that they have billions of problems with the football association in this country isn’t anything new, but I think that between players who are there and the coach – who is apparently problematic as well, there is a solid relationship. With performance against Germany, they showed once again that they have a very decent squad with at the moment the hottest number 9 in Europe. Luka Jović, who scored 23 goals this season (10 with the right foot, 9 with left, 4 headers) is probably one of most complete forwards at the moment and in a very good form. Of course, on the other side, there will be Cristiano Ronaldo, who’s in excellent form as well and besides him, in my opinion, one of the most improved players in past years Bernardo Silva – who is currently one of the best if not the best individual in Premier League. Without a doubt, Portugal have covered all places very well, but as they play with both fullbacks pushing really high on the pitch, I see chances for Serbia. Tadić is another great name in the squad of Krstajić, whose performances are on the highest level this season, but besides him, Krstajić has other individuals as Ljajić, Gaćinović (teammate of Jović in Frankfurt), Milenković, Milinković-Savić, and others. There is another thing when it comes for matches of “Balkan teams” and that is self-confidence and morale in general. They are capable of setting the mindset much higher of their abilities. Generations coming into senior squad have won a lot so good results against teams like Portugal isn’t anything new for them. There are some changes expected from the side of Portugal as Dyego Sousa might come in instead of Andre Silva, and Rafa instead of Ruben Neves. Even though I won’t be surprised to see Portugal starting cautiously, I think that both sides have a lot of offensive talent and that we’ll see some goals here. Therefore, my suggestions are also both teams to score @2,20.

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8 hours ago, Vocelov said:

Kosovo - Bulgaria

Kosovo to win @ 2.55

Kosovo are playing very enthusiastically in front of their emphatic crowd. The stadium is full no matter if they play Spain or San Marino. They are flying high after securing a playoff spot for EURO 2020 by winning their Nations League group. They almost beat Denmark in a friendly last week but conceded a goal in the final minutes. They are very motivated for another positive result tonight.

The opposition provides perfect opportunity for that. Bulgaria are not playing convincing football at the moment. They drew at home to Montenegro on Friday mostly thanks to a huge refereeing mistake which gave them a penalty that never existed. They entered the match with injury problems which were exacerbated after Chochev got a horrific injury that will leave him out of action for at least six months. In addition, Bulgaria are a weak away team, they often crumble under pressure in games with huge significance like today’s one, and they don’t handle euphoric fan support for the other team very well.

All of the above leads to a shrewd bet on odds of 2.55 on Kosovo to win with a 6/10 confidence level.

Kosovo might be playing at a full stadium but its capacity is less than 13 000, right?

Bulgaria are not just a weak away team, they are generally weak both at home and away but get more points at home than away. Not sure why. As you said, last time it was due to a fake penalty. Perhaps Kosovo will get a bit of help from the referees today ;-)

Whether this match is of huge significance for Bulgaria is up for debate. Somehow I don't think they care too much and for sure they are more interested in playing against England, for example.

I was very impressed by Kosovo's results in the friendly Nations League but they played teams below Bulgaria's level. They may win today but I don't have enough info to make an informed decision so no bet for me.

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winning was the start of Switzerland in the Euro 2020 qualifiers, with a 2-0 victory in Georgia. Today it has a seemingly more difficult task against Denmark, but with an ally the headquarters factor can do two in two
SWITZERLAND vs DENMARK @@ SWITZERLAND, odds 2.05

A very important match, with a high level of interest, any team winning will take the lead in second place. I expect the two nationals to be very cautious and set up to avoid losing. The few goals have the first and probably the last word
BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA vs GREECE @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.55

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Republic of Ireland vs Georgia

Well, it's been a pleasure covering the first round of Euro 2020 qualifiers with you guys. We finish with the match between Republic of Ireland and Georgia that will take place at 7:45pm tonight in Dublin at the Aviva Stadium. This international break has thrown up enough curve balls already. Can we expect one more?

Republic of Ireland laboured to that 1-0 win away to Gibraltar. Let's not pull any punches here, the host side were unlucky not to scab a point. Yes, Ireland looked the better side but it was far from convincing. It's a prime example of how there are now no easy games at international level. @Kenton Schweppes, you make that valid point about the value on Luxembourg against Ukraine. Even Luxembourg have the potential to get a result these days.

Georgia are exactly one of those sides that can cause any nation problems. As a Welsh fan, our draw at home against them in the 2018 World Cup qualifiers essentially cost us a place at that tournament. They are a dogged side that know how to make themselves tough to beat. Vladimir Weiss's side lost 2-0 at home to Switzerland in their opening game but it was far from straight forward for the Swiss. It's a Georgia squad that has only lost 2 of their last 11 matches since the start of 2018.

I'm going to come right out with it. I cannot see Republic of Ireland winning this game by more than a single goal. That's if they even manage to get the win. I think Mick McCarthy was an OK appointment but he won't tear up trees. This Irish side simply isn't good enough to reach tournament finals right now. Even ones like the European Championships where almost half of the qualifying nations make it. I'll stop just short of backing Georgia as a double chance but this has a potential upset written all over it. I would not be looking forward to this if I was an Ireland fan. Actually, you know what, I'm going all in. It's the last game I'm covering. Let's go mad! Georgia double chance! Boom! Who's coming?!

Georgia Double Chance @ 2.25 with MarathonBet

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.50 with Coral

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Malta - Spain

Spain has been playing well under Luis Enrique, although they finishing needs polishing, I do feel the Spaniards are in for a walk in the park as Malta is just so many classes below and Spain with their technical and creative players can show the home team football ABC even when they have an off day. And I think after a narrow win over Norway, Spain wants to get some samba football going and really enjoy the game. Weather is perfect for playing football and scoring some nice goals. Pretty sure the visitors will unlock Malta defence early on and cruise to a comfortable halftime lead. 

Pick: Spain -1,5 HT @ 1,77 (Pinnacle)

 

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FT - Romania 4-1 Faroe Islands

Eazy win guys.. I was expecting them to win by 2 Goals, but they win by 3 Goals.. It as bin a pleasure ... .  Enjoy the cash.

 

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