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Tennis Tips - April 15 - April 21


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RBA came to the match with a loss in mind already, pathetic unfortunately. Apologies if you've followed, never expected him to win, but, after so many good wins this year, I wasn't expecting him to just bend over for Nadal. Shocked at Fritz as well, I wonder what's going on with Diego, even the odds went up on Fritz before the start of the match and he won so easily.

Jason Jung to beat Goncalo Oliveira at 1.93 with Pinnacle

Jung is the better player of the two in my opinion and the Chinese clay isn't really the same clay as in, say, Monte Carlo, with hard court players doing quite well on it. Oliveira is 8-14 this season and he's been in a slump since breaking through in 2017, so I have no idea what makes him the favorite here.

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Challenger: Anning Sasi Kumar Mukund vs. Yan Bai @2.81 Pinnacle 5/10 Bai has a good record in Anning on clay: 2019 he reached a semifinal at the ITF tour, in 2018 he won F13 tournament in An

Japan lead 2-0 after day one, should get the job done.

Djokovic really is a mess right now. He looked so good at the Australian Open but since then he's looked like he could lose to anyone even though he's the best player in the world by ranking. Definite

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Daniel Elahi Galan (-1.5 sets) to beat Bradley Klahn at 2.40 with Unibet

Daniel showed us how good he can play on clay last week in Houston by reaching the semis where he lost to Casper Ruud. No shame in losing to Casper. Formwise I'd say that Daniel has a massive advantage here after Houston. Statistics also show Daniel can beat Brad on clay as he did in Sarasota 2017 by 7-6 7-5. He also beat Paolo Lorenzi by 7-6 6-4 in first round of Houston last week.

Add that Santiago Giraldo beat Brad Klahn by 6-4 6-4 last week in Houston round 1 and that Brad lost in Monterrey quarter by 7-5 6-4. All things considered I think this looks like a straight sets win for Daniel.

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Whats going on with Fritz?  I keep hearing he's terrible on clay and MC is supposed to be one of the slowest clay surfaces around, but here he's swept Schwartzman aside, and also was beating Tsonga easily before the Frenchman retired. 

Joker up next for him. Can he keep defying the odds ? 

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1 hour ago, Bettingboots said:

Whats going on with Fritz?  I keep hearing he's terrible on clay and MC is supposed to be one of the slowest clay surfaces around, but here he's swept Schwartzman aside, and also was beating Tsonga easily before the Frenchman retired. 

Joker up next for him. Can he keep defying the odds

Well he has pretty good ground strokes and his serve isn't missfireing so if he keeps that up I'd say he can keep it even with Nole.

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He's taken a page from the Isner book I suppose. Honestly though, Granollers was able to outplay him in Houston, so Nole might just destroy him if he plays well. Tsonga was injured and Schwartzman is in some sort of a limbo at the moment, might've been just lucky. The confidence from those wins is going to boost his serve though, so he might be able to stay with Nole for a while.

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1 hour ago, aphro said:

G'day! My value radar showed me that Pella G today has value in his odds 2.5 at Pinnacle.

Does anyone have thoughts of betting against Cecchinato?

Cilic was pretty awful against Pella, many unforced errors! Not sure one can read too much into Pella's performance against Cilic who has been out of form for a while now. Cecchinato was obviously sleeping in the first set against Wawrinka, but I think he is the better player so probably the odds are correct.

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2 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

Cilic was pretty awful against Pella, many unforced errors! Not sure one can read too much into Pella's performance against Cilic who has been out of form for a while now. Cecchinato was obviously sleeping in the first set against Wawrinka, but I think he is the better player so probably the odds are correct.

Ok, will not bet on it.

So what about Medvedev? How could you evaluate his performance against Tsitsipas? My value radar points this match too as prospective.

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4 minutes ago, aphro said:

Ok, will not bet on it.

So what about Medvedev? How could you evaluate his performance against Tsitsipas? My value radar points this match too as prospective.

Yes, I'm strongly thinking of Medvedev as well. He has a 3-0 H2H against Tsitipas (all on hard court though) and has blown both of his opponents out of the water. Tsitipas had a few wobbles yesterday, particularly towards the end of the 2nd set, which I believe Medvedev will attempt to exploit. Set against this is that Medvedev had a terrible clay season last year (think he only won match on clay), however, that is not enough to dissuade me from betting on him, so I think I will give it a go.

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Watched both Medvedev matches thinking he would drop a set, mainly because of his results so far on clay.

Well, didn’t go too well for me..

He’s  been serving great only dropping serve once.

Been very consistent in his baseline rallies against both [although Sousa played super bad].

Hit many big shots, his dangerous short cross court backhands Or drop shots whenever needed.

Grain of salt is his opponents weren’t top players super in form (albot sort of but) .. he definitly looked great.. and has been having a pretty good season so far

Definitely potential against tsitsips 

 

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23 minutes ago, aussietennisexpert said:

Whenever odds come out and depending..

Challenger anning k majchrzak to beat R. Ramanathan

Ramanathan looked god damn awful against a future player. There was a lot of wind but not an excuse..

Ramanathan had something going after Newport, almost breaking top 100 but he didn't get there and he's looked bad all season. He's looked pretty bad since about October I think.

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Jung breaks in the very first game and then his shots start going wrong, just not my couple of days I guess.

Attila Balasz to beat Pedro Sousa at 2.64 with Pinnacle

Risking a hattrick of losses here, but I think that there is some value in backing Balasz, who's always been one of the more talented players. Not fit and not healthy most of the time, but really good when on song. He does seem to be on song this week, having won 4 sets in a row, while Sousa dropped a set against a weaker player in the first round. Balasz beat Sousa last year in a team event and, while I don't think he should be the favourite here, I think that he should be only 2.15 sort of an underdog.

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Sascha Zverev (-4.5) to beat Fabio Fognini at 1.96 with Unibet

Can't see any scenario where Fabio covers the 4.5 handicap here. Sascha is heavily enforced for this tournament and ready to defend his 2018 semifinal spot. They met twice in 2017 on clay and hardcourt, Sascha winning both times.

6-4 6-2 on hard, 6-3 6-3 on clay in Rome third round after Fabio had beaten Andy Murray easily in straight sets I recall as a 3.60 underdog. Seeing how easily Sascha defeated Felix AA I don't think Fabio will have mutch to ask for today.

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Just my view on Lorenzo Sonego.

I feel like he is a quite overrated player right now. He is the same age as Cam Norrie but his potential is not as big. It looks like he is starting to develop into a stable top 100 player now but I don't think he will be in the top 100 in a few months. He still is far from being more than a high level challenger player. So my thought about Lorenzo is that he will not be top 60 soon and win his first ATP title this season. It might happen but not this season. Cam Norrie isn't the best of clay performers but he's still better than Lorenzo and I think he'll take at least a set today.

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36 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

A pretty fair assessment. I'd disagree with him not being in the top 100 in a few months, I think that he's going to find a solid place in that range, but a lot depends on how much he does in the main clay tournaments.

Well I can remember his straight sets loss to Roberto CB in South America in second round of one of those tournaments and that came as no surprise because I don't think he has the level for a decent top 100 player. But I might be wrong, we'll see after July. Maybe he wins some 125 point clay challenger final like the one in Szczecin.

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This is not my day, I'm wrong about everything and missing the bets I could have won. Fabio is beating Sascha with ease because Sascha is playing really crappy and Fabio is doing his best match of the season. I got fooled by that last result of Sascha when he beat Felix AA and the loopsided record. Not the first time I lose because of such a reason.

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10 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Alex Bolt to beat Goncalo Oliveira at 1.76 with Pinnacle

One more shot for me against Oliveira. Jung had enough chances and Bolt was able to beat the wind with his serve today, so he should be a slightly bigger fav imo. Not much more to say honestly, I just don't rate Oliveira at all despite his win against Jung,

I don’t think bolt wants to win this match ..

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