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Tennis Tips - April 8 - April 14


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5 minutes ago, money44 said:

omg , I typed that simultaneously as you about the source thing.. thats insane .. cool that you have that though.. Anyways.. Arneodo is still fighting. I'm not sure what his injury is, but he will play all the way through at his home tournament.. This is the biggest match of the year for him

yeah arneodo apparently some problems with his leg...not quite sure what it is, knee or thigh.

you have that quite often where favorite a wins the first set comfortably and then taking some games off in the second but still wins it quite comfortably in the end. i think we have that case as my contact told me londero looks fine but stepping off the gas a bit in the second set here but i wish you all the luck mate, hopefully arneodo pulls it off 

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Monte Carlo qualification Mischa Zverev vs. Julian Ocleppo @3.35 Pinnacle 8/10 Zverev in horrendous form and shape. Looked horrible vs. Daniel in Marrakech. Clay was always his worst surface

Grigor Dimitrov -1 game @2.00 Dafabet 3/10 I like Dimitrov here for some reasons. He's living in Monte-Carlo for years now and so this is kind of a home tournament for him. He prepared well in MC

Just post what you think has value, don't force yourself into posting just favourites or underdogs, that doesn't make any sense.

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WTA Bogota

Arruabarrena - Sharma

Arruabarrena to win @1.75 (unibet)

Looks like Arruabarrena started very well the clay season of 2019. Generally she seems to perform the best on clay courts. I expect her to feel better on the court today being present here more consecutive years either in finals or semi-finals. Also, being spanish language speaker I think the will feel more like-home here than the Sharma. 

I have not seen Sharma in action (please throw a hint who watched her) but I have a gut feeling that Arruabarrena should dispatch her in straight sets. Should be too good on clay for the Australian.

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1 hour ago, vvararu said:

WTA Bogota

Arruabarrena - Sharma

Arruabarrena to win @1.75 (unibet)

Looks like Arruabarrena started very well the clay season of 2019. Generally she seems to perform the best on clay courts. I expect her to feel better on the court today being present here more consecutive years either in finals or semi-finals. Also, being spanish language speaker I think the will feel more like-home here than the Sharma. 

I have not seen Sharma in action (please throw a hint who watched her) but I have a gut feeling that Arruabarrena should dispatch her in straight sets. Should be too good on clay for the Australian.

Sorry if I misled anyone with this analysis. I did not know that Sharma is so fast and powerful. 

The Spaniard is just not competitive :(

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7 hours ago, money44 said:

I am making an exception for today because its Monte Carlo gamble time, and I am angry about some decisions I made, but nonetheless.. I think its more likely to come in based on choosing the wrong bets for today so far. 

Romain Arneodo to beat Juan Ignacio Londero @ 10.22 with Pinnacle

Londero was struggling with something last tournament vs Vesely. It looked as though he was going to retire. Not sure if it's heat stroke or heart attack, but the guy was not healthy last match even though he was hitting the ball pretty well from the baseline.. But, Vesely's groundstrokes are worse than most of the players on tour. He has a huge serve, and when he's serving well .. It's probably top 10 serves, but alot of his other shots are not that great, and his speed is also below average. Arneodo has taken sets here from Kavcic, and Lajovic. He's played in the qualifying rounds here and lost rd 1 five years in a row. Its possible that he breaksthrough finally, and wins a qualifying round.. I've seen some tape on him, and he doesn't look that bad to me. 

Paire/Garin parlay backup @ odds 6.44 - Match is about to start to so maybe you can still get a look on it. Either way .. thats my best tennis lineup for today. 

 

 

Small redemption after the arneodo disaster. This was a late post as both matches were starting outside of garin

For tomorrow I am nearly sure either Benoit Paire or Milojevic will win. I would appreciate some feedback on what you guys think because I am concerned only one of them will win

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If Astra Sharma will play in final in Bogota against Amanda Anisimova like she played in semifinal against Lara Arruabarrena, she will demolish her... Anisimova was against Beatriz Haddad Maia already on course to go home but Brazilian destroyed herself somehow with poor service and double faults and stupid mistakes. I see Sharma way better with service and in game as Beatriz was and Sharma is also more explosive and way faster to catch the ball. I believe with her game plan she can find a right answer for Anisimova and beat her. Only issue against Sharma for me is a fact, that she could be fascinated playing in the final of WTA tournament as this is not common thing for her at this level. Odds 2.75 or higher are definately worth a try I think.

 

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Nikola Milojevic to beat Gianluca Mager @ odds 2.76 with Pinnacle

Mager will get dusted from the baseline in this match. Nikola is the fitter, and better technical player. Its not party out there for him.. It's serbian fighter who will see the finals through properly, and get the recognition, prize money, and most importantly the accomplishment of playing his best, and enjoying the sport. I've watched Mager recently, and seen some extra video of him.. This type of player will revert to defensive slices, and they aren't very sharp either.. Yes, he has alot of skills on the challenger tour. But, Milojevic is on the rise right now.. I've been evaluating the serbian younger players, and I think he has more potential than Kecmanovic and Djere. His serve is more potent, and he plays with intangibles like clever net play and timely shots.  So the match is in Italy.. This does not matter a single ounce for this match in my mind, and it may even make MIlojevic more determined. Its a banker bet for me.  I watched Milojevic vs Andrea Arnaboldi, and he is in form right now. He also took care of business in his last three matches in straight sets. If you bet this match: Do not expect to lose. I'm rating this as 85% win rate. Good luck everyone.

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22 minutes ago, aphro said:

Hello, guys! My value radar showed me opportunity with taking Paire again, so what do you think of this match against Andujar-Alba Pablo?

This is 50/50 . Last time Andujar won 2:1 but was very close then. We have value on Paire but small . 

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ATP Monte Carlo

Hurckacz H. - Coric B.

Two players that have not any clay games played in 2019 so far.

Taking a look back in 2018 statistics, Hurckacz looked to be doing better on clay courts - 14 wins out of 18 games. However, 1 think to be mentioned is that he played mostly against > 100 ranked players. If I'm not mistaken, Sandgren was the highest ranked opponent (61 ATP in 2018). Generally, it looks that the guys plays better on hard courts, probably because of his strong shots and serves. 

On the other side, Coric did not do so well clay-wise in 2018. He won just 5 games out of 10. However, he played against much stronger opponents (compared to the ones of Hurkcacz): Djokovici, Thiem, Schwartzman, Kohlschreiber, Carreno-Busta... I just think that they played different level tournaments; that's why the difference.

Being the game on the hard court I would have thought differently, but on clay, I give much more chances to Coric. From what I saw on his twitter account, the guys has been preparing very seriously for this tournament with a new guys in his team - Antonio Veic.

Coric to win @1.50 unibet

 

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5 minutes ago, eros said:

Zero value and I totally disagree like on all of your bets. Sorry ... jm2c.

Your message carries zero value without any explanations on the subject. It's not relevant if you like or not my bets or if you agree or disagree. What is important is to bring more arguments and information so that people can decide either to take it or not.

Please don't noise the page with irrelevant emotions.

Cheers.

P.S. Value is when you pick a bet and win it. Not when you make 10 bets on underdogs and win a couple of them. Just saying... because I've observed that people like to call value a bet with bigger odds (usually on underdogs).

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@vvararu I don't think we need explanations about what value means especially from someone who just picked a favorite to win, and they got trounced in straight sets. Why don't you try posting some more plays with tennis information, instead of teaching experienced bettors how smart you think you are.. I would like to see which tennis you are betting for today. :cheers

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@eros I've given you enough chances, consider this to be the final warning. I've told you enough times that we don't accept criticism that isn't constructive here and yet, you didn't even recognize your fault after I deleted your yesterday's post. You post picks with zero explanations and yet dare to speak against others who actually write something. I don't care that you don't have any time, because you apparently do have enough time to post here and aggravate others. While I might not agree with @vvararu thoughts on what's value, I do appreciate that he/she takes some time and explains the picks.

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and good luck on your Coric tip @vvararu , I can see that he is winning. For the match I had taken Hurkacz in a couple of parlays. It seemed like a place when Coric could continue to dissapoint, but maybe he is feeling good and could advance far in this tournament. I have not had much luck with betting Coric, and finding myself losing on him all the time

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1 minute ago, four-leaf said:

Mike Ymer is the only bet I like today.. Not gonna post anything myself. I would have posted Mike Ymer to win if nobody had not posted any but Mike Ymer to beat RCB is already up and I've liked it and that' enough for me to like that and place a bet on it.

See you all next week!

I think Ymer's results are deceiving @four-leaf. I liked him initially also, but his win in the last round was strange because I think in form Molleker would put up more of a fight. Baena was very consistent in his last match.. I'd look for something else better .. just my two cents. 

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Just now, money44 said:

I think Ymer's results are deceiving @four-leaf. I liked him initially also, but his win in the last round was strange because I think in form Molleker would put up more of a fight. Baena was very consistent in his last match.. I'd look for something else better .. just my two cents. 

I don't care! I've still had a good week even if Mike doesn't win. Small stake for last bet on the week for me.

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2 hours ago, vvararu said:

P.S. Value is when you pick a bet and win it. Not when you make 10 bets on underdogs and win a couple of them. Just saying... because I've observed that people like to call value a bet with bigger odds (usually on underdogs).

No. Value is if you think the player (in tennis) you're betting on has (much) better chances to win than Bookies suggesting. It's basically maths.

If Nadal and Djokovic playing each other and Nadal is prized around @2.0 and i give him 70% to win then it's value because bookmakers are giving him 50% and difference between 50% and 70% is big enough to pick him then.

You should deal with the topic and not claiming such strange observations about other tipsters who call some value here and there on bigger odds. It has nothing to do with bigger odds & smaller odds. Odds around 1.9 could have as much value as odds around 3.5.

In my opinion this isn't a topic which is about "to agree or disagree"....it's about facts. And fact is Value is 100% maths. How this works in the end has a lot to do with insider infos about players if you think bookies didn't take it into account what you did with your estimates.

Edited by opole
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Grigor Dimitrov -1 game @2.00 Dafabet 3/10

I like Dimitrov here for some reasons. He's living in Monte-Carlo for years now and so this is kind of a home tournament for him. He prepared well in MC last two weeks hitting with a lot of good training partners and apparently he looked pretty good. My contact in MC told me he's looking strong and pumped and i think he can deal with a guy like Berrettini on clay who is - to be fair - a really good prospect who can make it to the Top 20/30 soon. Berrettini had good tournament in Phoenix and Sofia but overall more an average year so far with a lot of early losses. 

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5 minutes ago, opole said:

No. Value is if you think the player (in tennis) you're betting on has (much) better chances to win than Bookies suggesting. It's basically maths.

If Nadal and Djokovic playing each other and Nadal is prized around @2.0 and i give him 70% to win then it's value because bookmakers are giving him 50% and difference between 50% and 70% is big enough to pick him then.

You should deal with the topic and not claiming such strange observations about other tipsters who call some value here and there on bigger odds. It has nothing to do with bigger odds & smaller odds. Odds around 1.9 could have as much value as odds around 3.5.

In my opinion this isn't a topic which is about "to agree or disagree"....it's about facts. And fact is Value is 100% maths. How this works in the end has a lot to do with insider infos about players if you think bookies didn't take it into account what you did with your estimates.

Got your idea.

Regardless of all the debates about the value, can I post my analyses on any bet or only on those with value ?

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Just now, vvararu said:

Got your idea.

Regardless of all the debates about the value, can I post my analyses on any bet or only on those with value ?

I don't care what you're posting or not, if it's to me you can post Novak Djokovic 1.01 has value, i was simply quoting your statement about value, wasn't referring to any analysis or pick in here.

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Please, guys, do not argue here. We should share our views and understanding about tennis and tennis players and help each other to win some money from bookies. Bookies are our enemies, not forum members. The power of argument is our weapon. That is my view. Keep coming with good arguments and information and we will all much lighter decide where to put our money.

BTW, Milojevic grabed a life line and plays now 3rd Set but he is already broken...

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1 minute ago, opole said:

I don't care what you're posting or not, if it's to me you can post Novak Djokovic 1.01 has value, i was simply quoting your statement about value, wasn't referring to any analysis or pick in here.

Sorry for that. Just felt offended by the way how someone reacted to my analyses, using words "Zero value...". In the end it's all about winning money. If I bet 10.000 eu on 1.5 and I win, for me it has a lot of value.

And yes. You are right about the other meaning of the value.

Once again. My apologises.

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Don't worry to much about value and argue semantics because thats all it is .. Just focus on tennis analysis like Tom Cody said.. Anyways, Milojevic crashed into the umpire tower. This is the reason for medical timeout.. It was an ugly crash. 

@tomcody Milojevic already blew the first set. He is playing the finals like a practice match because he knows he's a level above his opponent, and it might finally bite him here especially after that crash into the tower

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