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Tennis Tips - April 8 - April 14


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Monte Carlo qualification Mischa Zverev vs. Julian Ocleppo @3.35 Pinnacle 8/10 Zverev in horrendous form and shape. Looked horrible vs. Daniel in Marrakech. Clay was always his worst surface

Grigor Dimitrov -1 game @2.00 Dafabet 3/10 I like Dimitrov here for some reasons. He's living in Monte-Carlo for years now and so this is kind of a home tournament for him. He prepared well in MC

Just post what you think has value, don't force yourself into posting just favourites or underdogs, that doesn't make any sense.

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I feel there is also some value on Coppejans tomorrow. I was thinking he's going to win today but I didn't bet the match.. I guess it was very close and he could of lost.. He's just one of those players who was destined to win even tho the score was nail-biting. So I'll have to decide between this and serrano.. Serrano feels like much higher risk because she is so young, and playing a great talent like Anisimova. So, its a pretty tough decision. 

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10 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Sonego won't get many chances on the J-WT serve once it gets going. Short rallies and big forehands to expect when J-WT is serving and he's got enough baseline skills to exploit any weakness in Lorenzos service games. And I don't find any value in this match in any market.

Wow, you were so accurate with this info, as well as for Paire.

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Monte Carlo qualification

Mischa Zverev vs. Julian Ocleppo @3.35 Pinnacle 8/10

Zverev in horrendous form and shape. Looked horrible vs. Daniel in Marrakech. Clay was always his worst surface. Don't see him winning many matches next few weeks. Might cash out some bigger tournaments though and looking forward to grass court. I doubt you can make him a favorite right now vs any decent claycourt player out there. Ocleppo looking solid enough to take advantage of Zverevs bad form. Ocleppo once was a good prospect, beat guys like Auger-Aliassime or Yibing Wu as a junior for example.

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Marrakech ATP semi-final

Simon G. - Andujar Alba P.

Simon to win @1.72 (unibet).

 

Here is why I think Simon will win:

  • Am I the only one who thinks that Andujar Alba cannot perform like this forever ? Almost a game every day. I know he's damn good last 2-3 weeks but I expect some tiredness in the upcoming long game. Long, because Simon is a pusher and, usually, games with him involve many ralleys.
  • Simon is higher ranked (27 VS 70). This is gonna be the highest ranked opponent of Andujar in his loseless series.
  • Simon has a better clay court stats (57.9%) vs Andujar (50.5%). See the screen shot below with Simon on the right.
  • Their H2H is 2:1 for the spaniard, however, last game being 5 years ago, it's not relevant.

I think that the odds proposed by the booker are correct. They are leaning towards Simon but not a big gap between them. I'm expecting a long 3 set game ending in 2:1 for the french.... and a french final tomorrow. 

 

Screen Shot 2019-04-13 at 08.10.23.png

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Stan Wawrinka to beat Luca Pouille at odds -154 with Chance

Scripted early odds but won't change alot. This will be the first meeting between said players. Quality is with the Swiss player, who is also gaining some very decent form right now(even with some early losses here and there) Game is steadily improving. Both players with nice results in this tournament. Stan Wawrinka has not lost earlier than the Round of 16 since 2008. I don't see Pouille with much chances in the match. I think he's still recovering from a long Australian open, and Wawrinka will not want to lose this first encounter with a younger player. Luck! :beer

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20 minutes ago, vvararu said:

What are your thoughts on it? I've bet on his opponent so I'm curious about why do you find Andujar as value?

It's just a math, so that's why i'm looking for expert's opinion, i think that Andujar has too high odd.

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3 minutes ago, aphro said:

It's just a math, so that's why i'm looking for expert's opinion, i think that Andujar has too high odd.

Well... don't take my opinion as an expert's one, but being considered a favourite (see my post above about why), I think it's Ok 1.7-1.8 agains 2-2.20 on Andujar.

If they were more even, Simon wouldn't be a favourite :)

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2 minutes ago, vvararu said:

Well... don't take my opinion as an expert's one, but being considered a favourite (see my post above about why), I think it's Ok 1.7-1.8 agains 2-2.20 on Andujar.

If they were more even, Simon wouldn't be a favourite :)

I appreciate all opinions, because i'm just testing my system and i have lack of expertise, that's why i'm not posting any forecasts yet. 

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On 4/12/2019 at 12:19 AM, ogii55 said:

Voegele - Ferro

1.60 188bet

It's a very rare thing to see me post a bet bellow 2.00, but Voegele is kind of sure bet for me. She is playing amazing and at home. Stephanie showed improvement in IW and here, where the field is far more weaker she could go for something big. Last year she reached the semis so there are some points at stakes for her. A good result here could get her in RG main draw. 

Hi ogii55, do you think Hercog can beat Ferro - after beating Voegele? Or anyone else opinion?

Edited by Robinnho
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Pliskova to beat Świątek at 2.80 with Unibet

What do you think about this bet ? Świątek always have problems with experienced players . She had problems with Lapko yesterday . I think Pliskova is better than Lapko so she have big chance to beat Świątek . I`m from Poland and I cheering for Świątek but I`m realist and everything indicates that Pliskova will win 

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Ferro is a good young propsect from France, played quite good against voegele for her rankings .. lots of winners and not many unforced errors in comparison .. although hercog has less passive game than voegele ..

She was mixing well dropshots and powerful strokes .. voegele was not really close anytime even when leading 3-0 first set it looked she was probably not going to make it

a small plus the coach gave very good advice when he came in vs voegele ..

i haven’t seen hercog play this tour so I don’t know.. but ferro has had a few good matches in a row now.. although the level difference should prove too big. She especially got broken / in danger on her serve 0-40 more than a few times..

 

a note on paire .. he didn’t get WC to Monte Carlo and can’t play the qualifications due to playing semi finals here .. he’s shown some anger on social media and will try his very best against Tsonga to show the world he deserved wc/ hé will miss 1 tour. Not that I think it’s enough to beat Tsonga but you never know.

tsonga did look very good against a somewhat quality opponent .. choosing his moment to put pressure on the others serve to break and most often winning his serve comfortably ..

paire looked very good on serve but we all know how fast he can turn .. all in all I’d still back Jo but at these odds maybe I’d just put him in a parlay

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2 hours ago, aphro said:

I see Andujar-Alba Pablo on my radar as value, so i would like to hear your opinion about his feud with Simon G

I'm taking Andujar-Alba today. I watched most of the Simon-Daniel match and I thought Simon was fortunate to win in two sets - Daniel just lacked belief at key moments and was a break up in both sets and generated lots of break point opportunities. Andujar-Alba also got much needed rest yesterday, so I think he has to be the value play. Simon looked pretty much gassed (tired) yesterday - the rallies between the two players went on for ages, and I think the first game alone was 15 minutes long. Very few quick easy points.

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2 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

I'm taking Andujar-Alba today. I watched most of the Simon-Daniel match and I thought Simon was fortunate to win in two sets - Daniel just lacked belief at key moments and was a break up in both sets and generated lots of break point opportunities. Andujar-Alba also got much needed rest yesterday, so I think he has to be the value play. Simon looked pretty much gassed (tired) yesterday - the rallies between the two players went on for ages, and I think the first game alone was 15 minutes long. Very few quick easy points.

Unfortunately odds are already dropped from 2.22 to 2.05

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Delbonis v Ivashka- Ivasha to win at 4.00 with Bet365

Delbonis is not in good form and i don't see him as big favourite here. After reached the semi-finals at Cordoba he lost in early stages in next four clay tournaments. Last year Delbonis lost in qualification here as big favourite again Mahut, so Ivashka has good chance despite he will be 1st match on clay for him. Ilya won 2 matches in Monte Carlo before 1 year against Carballes Baena and F.Mayer, after that he won 2 matches in Barcelona, so can be a tight opponent on this surface. 

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I am making an exception for today because its Monte Carlo gamble time, and I am angry about some decisions I made, but nonetheless.. I think its more likely to come in based on choosing the wrong bets for today so far. 

Romain Arneodo to beat Juan Ignacio Londero @ 10.22 with Pinnacle

Londero was struggling with something last tournament vs Vesely. It looked as though he was going to retire. Not sure if it's heat stroke or heart attack, but the guy was not healthy last match even though he was hitting the ball pretty well from the baseline.. But, Vesely's groundstrokes are worse than most of the players on tour. He has a huge serve, and when he's serving well .. It's probably top 10 serves, but alot of his other shots are not that great, and his speed is also below average. Arneodo has taken sets here from Kavcic, and Lajovic. He's played in the qualifying rounds here and lost rd 1 five years in a row. Its possible that he breaksthrough finally, and wins a qualifying round.. I've seen some tape on him, and he doesn't look that bad to me. 

Paire/Garin parlay backup @ odds 6.44 - Match is about to start to so maybe you can still get a look on it. Either way .. thats my best tennis lineup for today. 

 

 

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Well , Its easy to say that now Opole after he dropped the first set 0-6. Londero might be in a medical timeout right now, and so far Arneodo is up 2-1 in the second set.. I think one of the two plays still have a chance to come in.. Either the parlay or Arneodo.. I think its about a 20 % chance one of them wins. 

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I wish I can watch that Arneod match , but there is no stream.. Betting on prices like this is so exciting .. its just you can't view the action.. super frustrating.. Also, Opole .. Don't be surprised if Arneodo takes this set.. He's won sets at Monte Carlo before, and He's only 26 years old. 

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9 minutes ago, money44 said:

Well , Its easy to say that now Opole after he dropped the first set 0-6. Londero might be in a medical timeout right now, and so far Arneodo is up 2-1 in the second set.. I think one of the two plays still have a chance to come in.. Either the parlay or Arneodo.. I think its about a 20 % chance one of them wins. 

As i wrote it it wasn't 0-6...i think it wasn't even started but didn't follow the scores tbh.

And no, Arneodo took the MTO mate not Londero! But good luck!

Edited by opole
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5 minutes ago, money44 said:

I wish I can watch that Arneod match , but there is no stream.. Betting on prices like this is so exciting .. its just you can't view the action.. super frustrating.. Also, Opole .. Don't be surprised if Arneodo takes this set.. He's won sets at Monte Carlo before, and He's only 26 years old. 

I have contact who is in Monte Carlo and watching these q matches today. He told me that Arneodo took the MTO mate. He's writing Londero is taking some time off here on the serve of Arneodo. Arneodo apparently not 100% fit here.

Edited by opole
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omg , I typed that simultaneously as you about the source thing.. thats insane .. cool that you have that though.. Anyways.. Arneodo is still fighting. I'm not sure what his injury is, but he will play all the way through at his home tournament.. This is the biggest match of the year for him

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