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Tennis Tips - April 8 - April 14


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Monte Carlo qualification Mischa Zverev vs. Julian Ocleppo @3.35 Pinnacle 8/10 Zverev in horrendous form and shape. Looked horrible vs. Daniel in Marrakech. Clay was always his worst surface

Grigor Dimitrov -1 game @2.00 Dafabet 3/10 I like Dimitrov here for some reasons. He's living in Monte-Carlo for years now and so this is kind of a home tournament for him. He prepared well in MC

Just post what you think has value, don't force yourself into posting just favourites or underdogs, that doesn't make any sense.

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Janko Tipsarevic (+2.5) to beat Sam Querrey at 2.10 with Unibet

I think Janko has a pretty good chance of covering this handicap. Janko has a 4-3 lead in this matchup and has won the last 3 meetings and the only one on clay was won by Janko in Roland Garros 2012. I trust Janko to keep playing well enough to cover.

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3 minutes ago, aphro said:

Hello, guys!

Does anyone have thoughts on Daniel T. - Simon G.?

Looks like there's strong value on Taro

Yes there appears to be some value on Taro +3.5 games at 2.10. I don't think Simon will run over Taro as easily as the odds and the handicap suggests.

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Taro Daniel (+3.5) to beat Gilles Simon at 2.10 with Unibet

Earliest ATP match today and I'm jumping on it and my thought are that Taro will have his chances here if he huffs and puffs a little on the fragile Simon serve. This match is all about who wins the rallies in the long run. It will most likely be Simon but not by a result of 4 games margin.

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I like Lara Arruabarena against Tamara Zidansek. Spaniard plays in Bogota like at home for several years - last year she was in final and she lost against Schmiedlova, so she needs to defend some points for WTA ranking. Yesterday she was in 1st Set 2-5 down against Paolini and despite that she stay mentally strong with her game plan. Even more, Italian never ever was in chance to get a Set point at all and in TB Lara again shown her mental stability. 2nd Set was pure formality then for her.

Now, I didn't see Zidansek play in Bogota, but I doubt she is mentally stronger then Lara. I know Zidansek is training a lot on clay surface, but I think that is not her favourite surface although she likes to play on clay therefore she can be very dangerous. But somehow I do not trust her at all. Tamara beats Khromacheva and Vickery so far here in Bogota and I doubt she can go now past Arruabarena.

I believe odds higher than 2.05 on Spanish tennis player are worth a try... Guys, what is your opinion?

Edited by tomcody
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56 minutes ago, tomcody said:

I like Lara Arruabarena against Tamara Zidansek. Spaniard plays in Bogota like at home for several years - last year she was in final and she lost against Schmiedlova, so she needs to defend some points for WTA ranking. Yesterday she was in 1st Set 2-5 down against Paolini and despite that she stay mentally strong with her game plan. Even more, Italian never ever was in chance to get a Set point at all and in TB Lara again shown her mental stability. 2nd Set was pure formality then for her.

Now, I didn't see Zidansek play in Bogota, but I doubt she is mentally stronger then Lara. I know Zidansek is training a lot on clay surface, but I think that is not her favourite surface although she likes to play on clay therefore she can be very dangerous. But somehow I do not trust her at all. Tamara beats Khromacheva and Vickery so far here in Bogota and I doubt she can go now past Arruabarena.

I believe odds higher than 2.05 on Spanish tennis player are worth a try... Guys, what is your opinion?

I would set my sights on something less dependent on whoever has the strongest mentality of two players. For me there are other matches with less risk.

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Jaume Munar/Benoit Paire over 22.5 games at 1.93 with Unibet

I acctually see some value in this bet. Jaume and Benoit are going to be so even in terms on ball striking and consistency that I doubt this match is gonna be over in 2 sets. Benoit is ofcourse not the most stable player outthere to trust on but I can't see any risk of this match going under 22.5. They've met once and Benoit won 6-2 6-2 when Jaume was 17 in Barcelona but Jaume has evolved his game so mutch since then so it has no relevance.

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32 minutes ago, aphro said:

There's Tsonga J-W. - Sonego L. on my radar where Sonego has value, we'll see...

Sonego won't get many chances on the J-WT serve once it gets going. Short rallies and big forehands to expect when J-WT is serving and he's got enough baseline skills to exploit any weakness in Lorenzos service games. And I don't find any value in this match in any market.

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And Pablo Andujar gets a walkover from Jiri Vesely who once again leaves Morocco empty handed. He left ATP Marrakech with walkover last season also.

Edit: Or wait, he retired in first round to Kyle Edmund last season 5-0 down and in 2014 he retired in second round of Casablanca.

Edited by four-leaf
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1 minute ago, money44 said:

I don't think you are South Africa: 

Zverev was playing poor yesterday, and serving like it also .. Paire has a good chance today for me 


Yup, I watched most of the match yesterday with Sascha. Sascha completely lost it in the 3rd set...double faults and basic errors galore, although I do rate Munar as a player for the future, especially on clay.

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Janko Tipsarevic (+1.5 sets) to beat Sam Querrey at 1.78 with Pinnacle

First real challenge for both in Houston and I think that we might be in for a tight match given how well they've both been playing so far. Tipsarevic with a bit more motivation perhaps, Querrey has never liked playing against truly determined opponents and the surface should help Janko marginally as well. Querrey is the fav, but I like the odds for Querrey getting a set.

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3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Janko Tipsarevic (+1.5 sets) to beat Sam Querrey at 1.78 with Pinnacle

First real challenge for both in Houston and I think that we might be in for a tight match given how well they've both been playing so far. Tipsarevic with a bit more motivation perhaps, Querrey has never liked playing against truly determined opponents and the surface should help Janko marginally as well. Querrey is the fav, but I like the odds for Querrey getting a set.

It will be a real shame if Janko didn't win a set. So many missed chances up to know. He should even close the match up to now. Let's shake fingers to take the second! The dude still got it. Just need a bit of luck

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@four-leaf Keep the fire burning my friend.. You are slaughtering your picks right now.. Very well done.  

Czech. I saw that set handicap vs game handicap unfortunately bit you again. Just a suggestion, but maybe you should default your plays to games handicap for awhile with an exception. 

I think the set handicap is better on bigger priced matches such as when you took Kohli @ Indian Wells.. So for anything under 4.0 - games might work better for you.. Sorry to be so critical in frustrating times for you, but just trying to help. 

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Also , Not sure if you ever wanted to do this .. But you could list your potential bets such as 

tipsarevic +2.5, tipsarevic +1.5 set, and Arruabarrena moneyline... Members here could vote on what they prefer out of those three.. I probably would have selected Tipsarevic games for you... and 2/3 of those picks won. 

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It seems to me that Ossorio Serrano has a chance today vs Anisimova.. I'm probably going to bet an NHL hockey game, and use that as a back to cover the action on the NHL game.. Still trying to decide the best course of action my next bet.. Did win on Griekspoor tho.. @Czech fyi.. I think Griekspoor is a goldmine for bettors to keep in mind for the future

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