Announcements
*** New Last Man Standing Competition - Win up to £1500 Annually - See Competitions Forum ***
*** July Competition Winners: Well done to Pete1971 (NAPS), Barnsley Chop (KO Cup), bluemal (Goodwood) & Rivrd (Poker) ***
Sign in to follow this  
CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - April 8 - April 14

Recommended Posts

18 minutes ago, money44 said:

I took raja/nedu team in dubs opole

Don't see that tbh. Bryan bros looking good recently and their record in Houston is strong. But good luck. :ok

Edited by opole

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat Kristyna Pliskova at 1.67 with William Hill

I'm psychologically afraid of this bet given how poorly I usually tip my fellow Czechs, but I did well with Vesely today and I hope to do well with Pliskova tomorrow, although I'm going to go against her. Kuznetsova has exactly the type of grit that's required to frustrate Pliskova and she's still somewhat above her in terms of quality as well imo.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, money44 said:

Jiri Vesely to beat Pablo Andujar @ 2.44 with Pinnacle

Most of us talking here saw that Vesely match yesterday.. There isn't a whole lot to complain about.. I think his arm can hold up through the next match with the taping there.  Andujar is a great player I know on clay, and has won the title here three times.. The problem is that Vesely is a tricky player with drop shots, big serve, loopy forehand and a flat consistent backhand(for this tournament atleast)

Vesely holds a 2-0 h2h advantage.. Both players will be playing on their best surface. I think the key component here is that Andujar's legs are at about 85%. He's hitting the ball great, but its easy to look spectacular when players like Kohlschreiber dump you the match in hand. Phillip is just not a class player especially on clay. He's better suited to hard courts, and even then he loses easily alot of the time. I think Vesely will be able to crunch Andujar's serve, and he has to do it. The passive play vs Londero was plenty good enough to cruise, but he's playing down to his opponents level somewhat. Jiri likes it here, and I believe he wants the final. His serve is terribly difficult to break on this surface, and he was not broken in the last match vs Londero. 

Kohly has won 6 ATP events in his career, all of them are on clay. He also has 6 more finals on clay. Even when he is not in form, he is very experienced and is tough to beat. With this tapes of Vesely, I wouldn't touch such a match. Specially on Pinnacle where 1st set rule apply. Andujar is tired, but he won the event last year :) So he has a lot to lose.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Two from me from Lugano:

 

Lapko - Swiatek

3.00 Bet365

Swiatek is a bit overrated. She still has young blood problems and her condition playing too much matches in a row sometimes cause problems. Lapko's season is awful up to now. She is kind of players that needs to start well in a tournament. And here she just destroyed Rodina. While Swiatek was well pushed by Kuzmova

Voegele - Ferro

1.60 188bet

It's a very rare thing to see me post a bet bellow 2.00, but Voegele is kind of sure bet for me. She is playing amazing and at home. Stephanie showed improvement in IW and here, where the field is far more weaker she could go for something big. Last year she reached the semis so there are some points at stakes for her. A good result here could get her in RG main draw. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@ogii55

First set rule is really good for me in this case because I don’t see a chance of Vesely retiring but I do see a high chance of Andujar retiring. Either way I’m not banking on andujar retiring because he’s a fighter he’ll probably keep going. I’ve seen kohlschreiber overrated on clay late in his career. I am thinking Hamburg 500. He might have even retired in the finals there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I forgot I said wasn’t posting underdogs anymore lol. I’ve got a lot on my mind. This one slipped out, But Still going with that plan. Go Vesely I prayed to the demon gods again. And I got a dinner date with Lepchenko tonight. ( - :

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, money44 said:

I forgot I said wasn’t posting underdogs anymore lol. I’ve got a lot on my mind. This one slipped out, But Still going with that plan. Go Vesely I prayed to the demon gods again. And I got a dinner date with Lepchenko tonight. ( - :

You should just post them. Always interesting to see if someone fancy opposing the fave that you’ve picked.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Vesely situation is a bit different because I already won him last time as a favorite, and this is a follow up play.. So I could potentially make exceptions for that @aussietennisexpert

I have a plan in mind if 'Vesely wins to possibly hammer Munar right after on the next match.. I don't know how well Paire has been playing, and that scares me a little bit, but I was really tempted to bet Munar yesterday.. Made a big mistake, and did not risk anything on him. I think someone even posted here asking about Munar to win... A member that I don't recall their name, but nobody commented much about it.. Its amazing how many times Zverev loses.. It was the first match between the two young stars, and clearly value was laced all over Munar with Zverev still recovering physically. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good odds on Jung/Wang @3.15 Bethard 3/10 in Taipei.

Jung is playing his singles match right now but i doubt this will be an issue anyway as Jung well known for his good stamina and gas tank. He won't tank this match as he's probably one of those guys who is always giving 110%. I don't rate Hsieh/Rungkat at all. Odds above 3 don't reflect the chances at all. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

maybe Hsieh/Rungkat form has dipped after losing in the semi-finals last tournament.. I'd rate the play as 35% chance of winning.. But that is really an uninformed guess.  There is equity at that percentage tho. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Parlay at 3.41 with betsson

Tallon Griekspoor to beat Salvatore Caruso at 2.20

I have to rate Tallons chance as a lot higher than 2.20 as clay is his favourite surface and Salvatore doesn't impress me on clay.

Mike Ymer to beat Rudolf Molleker at 1.55

Mike has showed some good form on the clay of Murcia and I think it has to be natural to see him in the semis here. Rudolf showed all to mutch mental issues last match and Mike came from breaks down in both sets last match and won in two. Maybe there's no value at taking Mike to win but I see him as the more stable player right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Korayu.. I would say there is a real chance, and I believe you were the person also who called Munar. 

You seem to have some sharp opinions.. Post your plays in bold text so we know what your opinion is .. Its more effective in cooperation. Hope that makes sense.  Good day 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Janko Tipsarevic (+2.5) to beat Sam Querrey at 2.10 with Unibet

I think Janko has a pretty good chance of covering this handicap. Janko has a 4-3 lead in this matchup and has won the last 3 meetings and the only one on clay was won by Janko in Roland Garros 2012. I trust Janko to keep playing well enough to cover.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, aphro said:

Hello, guys!

Does anyone have thoughts on Daniel T. - Simon G.?

Looks like there's strong value on Taro

Yes there appears to be some value on Taro +3.5 games at 2.10. I don't think Simon will run over Taro as easily as the odds and the handicap suggests.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Taro Daniel (+3.5) to beat Gilles Simon at 2.10 with Unibet

Earliest ATP match today and I'm jumping on it and my thought are that Taro will have his chances here if he huffs and puffs a little on the fragile Simon serve. This match is all about who wins the rallies in the long run. It will most likely be Simon but not by a result of 4 games margin.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like Lara Arruabarena against Tamara Zidansek. Spaniard plays in Bogota like at home for several years - last year she was in final and she lost against Schmiedlova, so she needs to defend some points for WTA ranking. Yesterday she was in 1st Set 2-5 down against Paolini and despite that she stay mentally strong with her game plan. Even more, Italian never ever was in chance to get a Set point at all and in TB Lara again shown her mental stability. 2nd Set was pure formality then for her.

Now, I didn't see Zidansek play in Bogota, but I doubt she is mentally stronger then Lara. I know Zidansek is training a lot on clay surface, but I think that is not her favourite surface although she likes to play on clay therefore she can be very dangerous. But somehow I do not trust her at all. Tamara beats Khromacheva and Vickery so far here in Bogota and I doubt she can go now past Arruabarena.

I believe odds higher than 2.05 on Spanish tennis player are worth a try... Guys, what is your opinion?

Edited by tomcody

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, tomcody said:

I like Lara Arruabarena against Tamara Zidansek. Spaniard plays in Bogota like at home for several years - last year she was in final and she lost against Schmiedlova, so she needs to defend some points for WTA ranking. Yesterday she was in 1st Set 2-5 down against Paolini and despite that she stay mentally strong with her game plan. Even more, Italian never ever was in chance to get a Set point at all and in TB Lara again shown her mental stability. 2nd Set was pure formality then for her.

Now, I didn't see Zidansek play in Bogota, but I doubt she is mentally stronger then Lara. I know Zidansek is training a lot on clay surface, but I think that is not her favourite surface although she likes to play on clay therefore she can be very dangerous. But somehow I do not trust her at all. Tamara beats Khromacheva and Vickery so far here in Bogota and I doubt she can go now past Arruabarena.

I believe odds higher than 2.05 on Spanish tennis player are worth a try... Guys, what is your opinion?

I would set my sights on something less dependent on whoever has the strongest mentality of two players. For me there are other matches with less risk.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this