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Tennis Tips - April 8 - April 14


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Monte Carlo qualification Mischa Zverev vs. Julian Ocleppo @3.35 Pinnacle 8/10 Zverev in horrendous form and shape. Looked horrible vs. Daniel in Marrakech. Clay was always his worst surface

Grigor Dimitrov -1 game @2.00 Dafabet 3/10 I like Dimitrov here for some reasons. He's living in Monte-Carlo for years now and so this is kind of a home tournament for him. He prepared well in MC

Just post what you think has value, don't force yourself into posting just favourites or underdogs, that doesn't make any sense.

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just fyi note imo : Griekspoor is a live dog , and its something I might take in play or out of play (

Griekspoor actually has a surprisingly good record on clay, and has defeated Sousa the last match they played on clay as well coming from a set down. I've seen some recent stream live of Sousa, and he didn't look all that great to me for his form.. I seen him playing better a year or two ago. Regardless. I think this represents enormous value. 

match goes off the books in one hour. Its also worth noting that Griekspoor has just defeated Roca Batalla(who is a very good clay court player) I saw some of batalla's match a few days, and he was hitting some impressive forehands. In my opinion Batalla is in form currently, and Griekspoor may have an easier challenge today with Sousa(who does not have near the powerful shots of Griekspoor, and might find it tricky to control them back in to the court. 

Edited by money44
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34 minutes ago, money44 said:

Still off Griekspoor.. I was expecting Kohlschreiber to take the first set .. This has influenced my decision.. I might still check in play later .. match is now off the board 

Kohlschreiber's collapse in the TB was so pathetic. Bet on him as well so hopefully he pulls something out of the hat.

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Jiri Vesely to beat Pablo Andujar @ 2.44 with Pinnacle

Most of us talking here saw that Vesely match yesterday.. There isn't a whole lot to complain about.. I think his arm can hold up through the next match with the taping there.  Andujar is a great player I know on clay, and has won the title here three times.. The problem is that Vesely is a tricky player with drop shots, big serve, loopy forehand and a flat consistent backhand(for this tournament atleast)

Vesely holds a 2-0 h2h advantage.. Both players will be playing on their best surface. I think the key component here is that Andujar's legs are at about 85%. He's hitting the ball great, but its easy to look spectacular when players like Kohlschreiber dump you the match in hand. Phillip is just not a class player especially on clay. He's better suited to hard courts, and even then he loses easily alot of the time. I think Vesely will be able to crunch Andujar's serve, and he has to do it. The passive play vs Londero was plenty good enough to cruise, but he's playing down to his opponents level somewhat. Jiri likes it here, and I believe he wants the final. His serve is terribly difficult to break on this surface, and he was not broken in the last match vs Londero. 

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I like Skupski/Skupski @ 2.25 5dimes 6/10 in Houston later this evening.

Opponents are Chardy / Martin. Chardy lost in singles to Garin and he'll play in Monte Carlo next week. He's still focusing on singles and i can see him being happy losing today in doubles so he can be in MC on Saturday or Sunday. Big +++ here is that he's playing with his friend Martin. Those doubles combos always having some "unwritten rules" to follow if one player has to leave early for another tournament. Martin might get the full prize money without splitting it. 

Edited by opole
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Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat Kristyna Pliskova at 1.67 with William Hill

I'm psychologically afraid of this bet given how poorly I usually tip my fellow Czechs, but I did well with Vesely today and I hope to do well with Pliskova tomorrow, although I'm going to go against her. Kuznetsova has exactly the type of grit that's required to frustrate Pliskova and she's still somewhat above her in terms of quality as well imo.

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3 hours ago, money44 said:

Jiri Vesely to beat Pablo Andujar @ 2.44 with Pinnacle

Most of us talking here saw that Vesely match yesterday.. There isn't a whole lot to complain about.. I think his arm can hold up through the next match with the taping there.  Andujar is a great player I know on clay, and has won the title here three times.. The problem is that Vesely is a tricky player with drop shots, big serve, loopy forehand and a flat consistent backhand(for this tournament atleast)

Vesely holds a 2-0 h2h advantage.. Both players will be playing on their best surface. I think the key component here is that Andujar's legs are at about 85%. He's hitting the ball great, but its easy to look spectacular when players like Kohlschreiber dump you the match in hand. Phillip is just not a class player especially on clay. He's better suited to hard courts, and even then he loses easily alot of the time. I think Vesely will be able to crunch Andujar's serve, and he has to do it. The passive play vs Londero was plenty good enough to cruise, but he's playing down to his opponents level somewhat. Jiri likes it here, and I believe he wants the final. His serve is terribly difficult to break on this surface, and he was not broken in the last match vs Londero. 

Kohly has won 6 ATP events in his career, all of them are on clay. He also has 6 more finals on clay. Even when he is not in form, he is very experienced and is tough to beat. With this tapes of Vesely, I wouldn't touch such a match. Specially on Pinnacle where 1st set rule apply. Andujar is tired, but he won the event last year :) So he has a lot to lose.

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Two from me from Lugano:

 

Lapko - Swiatek

3.00 Bet365

Swiatek is a bit overrated. She still has young blood problems and her condition playing too much matches in a row sometimes cause problems. Lapko's season is awful up to now. She is kind of players that needs to start well in a tournament. And here she just destroyed Rodina. While Swiatek was well pushed by Kuzmova

Voegele - Ferro

1.60 188bet

It's a very rare thing to see me post a bet bellow 2.00, but Voegele is kind of sure bet for me. She is playing amazing and at home. Stephanie showed improvement in IW and here, where the field is far more weaker she could go for something big. Last year she reached the semis so there are some points at stakes for her. A good result here could get her in RG main draw. 

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@ogii55

First set rule is really good for me in this case because I don’t see a chance of Vesely retiring but I do see a high chance of Andujar retiring. Either way I’m not banking on andujar retiring because he’s a fighter he’ll probably keep going. I’ve seen kohlschreiber overrated on clay late in his career. I am thinking Hamburg 500. He might have even retired in the finals there.

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49 minutes ago, money44 said:

I forgot I said wasn’t posting underdogs anymore lol. I’ve got a lot on my mind. This one slipped out, But Still going with that plan. Go Vesely I prayed to the demon gods again. And I got a dinner date with Lepchenko tonight. ( - :

You should just post them. Always interesting to see if someone fancy opposing the fave that you’ve picked.

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The Vesely situation is a bit different because I already won him last time as a favorite, and this is a follow up play.. So I could potentially make exceptions for that @aussietennisexpert

I have a plan in mind if 'Vesely wins to possibly hammer Munar right after on the next match.. I don't know how well Paire has been playing, and that scares me a little bit, but I was really tempted to bet Munar yesterday.. Made a big mistake, and did not risk anything on him. I think someone even posted here asking about Munar to win... A member that I don't recall their name, but nobody commented much about it.. Its amazing how many times Zverev loses.. It was the first match between the two young stars, and clearly value was laced all over Munar with Zverev still recovering physically. 

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Good odds on Jung/Wang @3.15 Bethard 3/10 in Taipei.

Jung is playing his singles match right now but i doubt this will be an issue anyway as Jung well known for his good stamina and gas tank. He won't tank this match as he's probably one of those guys who is always giving 110%. I don't rate Hsieh/Rungkat at all. Odds above 3 don't reflect the chances at all. 

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Parlay at 3.41 with betsson

Tallon Griekspoor to beat Salvatore Caruso at 2.20

I have to rate Tallons chance as a lot higher than 2.20 as clay is his favourite surface and Salvatore doesn't impress me on clay.

Mike Ymer to beat Rudolf Molleker at 1.55

Mike has showed some good form on the clay of Murcia and I think it has to be natural to see him in the semis here. Rudolf showed all to mutch mental issues last match and Mike came from breaks down in both sets last match and won in two. Maybe there's no value at taking Mike to win but I see him as the more stable player right now.

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