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Tennis Tips - April 8 - April 14


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Okay . So People have seen how I bet here.. losing mostly on some big underdog picks.  Similar to what Opole does except he wins more picks than me :ok. I have decided for the betterment of the forum to stop posting these longshot type bets.. I will still make my own bets for these, but when I post here .. it will be on favorites to win the match similar to what Czech Punter does.. I think this is a more realistic way to help out... Godspeed !

Antonia Lottner to beat Kristyna Pliskova @ odds -127 with Pinnacle 

I have taken Lottner to upset Bencic because I thought Belinda was not in 100% health, but also I believe Lottner is playing some decent tennis at the moment as well.. So I think you got to get up on the train while its riding smooth, and this is what I feel will win.. I'm about 60 % confident. Good day all 

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Monte Carlo qualification Mischa Zverev vs. Julian Ocleppo @3.35 Pinnacle 8/10 Zverev in horrendous form and shape. Looked horrible vs. Daniel in Marrakech. Clay was always his worst surface

Grigor Dimitrov -1 game @2.00 Dafabet 3/10 I like Dimitrov here for some reasons. He's living in Monte-Carlo for years now and so this is kind of a home tournament for him. He prepared well in MC

Just post what you think has value, don't force yourself into posting just favourites or underdogs, that doesn't make any sense.

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Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat Timea Bacsinszky at 2.63 with Betfair

Sveta in a 50/50 match like this where the best fighter comes through I think I trust Sveta to battle her way through this. Sveta owns this matchup so far with 4-0 on hardcourt and losing only one set. With Svetas battle qualities the odds look wrong here. It should be 50/50 pricing so 2.63 has to be taken. I honestly don't see what makes Timea the favourite because you can't make her favourite against a player like Sveta only because she's got home advantage.

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52 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat Timea Bacsinszky at 2.63 with Betfair

Sveta in a 50/50 match like this where the best fighter comes through I think I trust Sveta to battle her way through this. Sveta owns this matchup so far with 4-0 on hardcourt and losing only one set. With Svetas battle qualities the odds look wrong here. It should be 50/50 pricing so 2.63 has to be taken. I honestly don't see what makes Timea the favourite because you can't make her favourite against a player like Sveta only because she's got home advantage.

Brilliant analysis .. I think this also is a 50/50 match, and just because its in Switzerland .. they are giving Bacsinszky a massive price.. On a neutral court you might see a line about Sveta 2.10.  I'm not sure homecourt matters as much in tennis as say for example a loud basketball game.  Really just matters who is better prepared to win, and wants it more.  actually 2.2 is a bit more accurate if its nuetral site because sveta has not won alot of matches recently 

Edited by money44
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I have a seen a clip of Bacinszky previous match now , and my own pick Lottner I am worried about.. I have concerns about both of these matches , and really looking elsewhere for something more concrete.. I do wish you luck on your pick tho. 

Edited by money44
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ATP Marrakech

Andreozzi G. - Simon G.

Simon @1.62 (unibet).

Being a great pusher and clay being the best surface for that, I'll go with Simon G. to win.

From the stats, we can see that Simon has been being a quite successful clay player till now. (see the attach). Regretfully, the stats from the same site does not look accurate for Andreozzi. However, I've checked and in 2018-2019 the guys does not have so many wins (2-3) against top 100 players. In 2019, yesterday's win agains Ramos was first out of five.

Of course anything can happen but I believe that Simon will piss the Argentinian off with his long ralleys.

 

 

Screen Shot 2019-04-10 at 17.08.27.png

Screen Shot 2019-04-10 at 17.09.13.png

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Grand Prix Hassan II

Jiri Vesely to beat Juan Ignacio Londero @ odds -117 with Pinnacle

I have seen some highlights from Jiri's last match in Morocco. Well, to be clear. He is serving the ball quite largely. His movement looks about usual. Could be better, but adequate. The net play and striking of the ball from the baseline appear to be in fine form. Jiri Vesley seems very motivated at this tournament right now, and has made the semi-finals twice here already.. I have him placed in the finals right now. 

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6 hours ago, vvararu said:

ATP Marrakech

Andreozzi G. - Simon G.

Simon @1.62 (unibet).

Being a great pusher and clay being the best surface for that, I'll go with Simon G. to win.

From the stats, we can see that Simon has been being a quite successful clay player till now. (see the attach). Regretfully, the stats from the same site does not look accurate for Andreozzi. However, I've checked and in 2018-2019 the guys does not have so many wins (2-3) against top 100 players. In 2019, yesterday's win agains Ramos was first out of five.

Of course anything can happen but I believe that Simon will piss the Argentinian off with his long ralleys.

 

 

Screen Shot 2019-04-10 at 17.08.27.png

Screen Shot 2019-04-10 at 17.09.13.png

Which website is that from? Seems it could be quite useful.

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4 minutes ago, money44 said:

Grand Prix Hassan II

Jiri Vesely to beat Juan Ignacio Londero @ odds -117 with Pinnacle

I have seen some highlights from Jiri's last match in Morocco. Well, to be clear. He is serving the ball quite largely. His movement looks about usual. Could be better, but adequate. The net play and striking of the ball from the baseline appear to be in fine form. Jiri Vesley seems very motivated at this tournament right now, and has made the semi-finals twice here already.. I have him placed in the finals right now. 

I'm on Vesely aswell, and considering to back him to win the title here. He clearly enjoys playing this tournament, participating every year since 2014 - and actually made three semifinals (2015 Casablanca).

He beat Fognini 7-6, 6-4 but the score could have easily been 6-1, 6-1. He had breakpoints in the first, third and fifth service game of Fognini in the first set, and was serving for the match 5-1 in the second.

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ATP HOUSTON

Reilly Opelka to beat Casper Ruud at 1.90

Opelka, despite his one-dimensional game, has been doing well this year, winning his maiden ATP title in NY and doing well-ish in Miami. I believe that the Houston clay is quite fast (anyone confirm?) and thus it won't be a hindrance to his main weapon. He also beat Casper in 2017 and I think he will do so again.

 

Edited by South_African_Punter
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20 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

ATP HOUSTON

Reilly Opelka to beat Casper Ruud at 1.90

Opelka, despite his one-dimensional game, has been doing well this year, winning his maiden ATP title in NY and doing well-ish in Miami. I believe that the Houston clay is quite fast (anyone confirm?) and thus it won't be a hindrance to his main weapon. He also beat Casper in 2017 and I think he will do so again.

 

Yes it is. I confirm

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56 minutes ago, Metaphor said:

Do you mind if I post a badminton tip or is this reserved for tennis only?

I would vote its fine to do here.  Because a badminton forum like this would not take off, and it could be useful to people who want to bet on that. 

There could be some rules like no more than 1-2 tips per day, and keep them in the same posting.. Not enough people will check the badminton forum regurlarly enough.. Seems like a fair exception, but Czech Punter will let you know if its allowed here or not soon probably when he wakes up in Europe. 

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I am making small exception atleast for now because one of my favorite players Ana Bogdan is in process of dismantling Sorribes Tormo in Bogota .. this is not a bold marked play... But I am heavily favoring Bogdan to win the third set .. now its late second set.. 

Perhaps for in play matches only .. I might send some opinions for longer shots, but sticking to the guns pre-match only faves 

Edited by money44
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10 hours ago, money44 said:

Grand Prix Hassan II

Jiri Vesely to beat Juan Ignacio Londero @ odds -117 with Pinnacle

I have seen some highlights from Jiri's last match in Morocco. Well, to be clear. He is serving the ball quite largely. His movement looks about usual. Could be better, but adequate. The net play and striking of the ball from the baseline appear to be in fine form. Jiri Vesley seems very motivated at this tournament right now, and has made the semi-finals twice here already.. I have him placed in the finals right now. 

I was thinking the same, Jiri seldom loses early in Marrakech. Now everything is new to JIL, he won an ATP tournament but he didn't preserve his game from Cordoba for other tournaments. He's like still on the same challenger level he had before he won Cordoba.

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ATP Marrakech.

Kohlschreiber P. - Andujar Alba P.

Kohlschreiber to win @1.76 (unibet)

The reasons of this choice are:

  • German is generally a better ranked and more versatile player
  • Spaniard played last week almost every day. I think that it might affect the quality of his game against a rested opponent.
  • I'm not sure about the info, but I've read somewhere that Andujar Alba will play qualifiers for the much more prestigious Monte Carlo ATP this weekend (Kohlschreiber being seeded). If that's true, the Spaniard might want to rest a little bit and not be very motivated for the game of today. On the other side, German will want to stay in the tournament in order to play some more games as preparation for the Monte Carlo. All this is just supposition but it might carry some sense.
  • Yes, Andujar Alba has a 11 games win run, but all of the opponents, except Paire (69) and Delbonis (74) were > 140 ranking. Kohlschreiber (41) will be a serious challenge if we judge purely by ranking.

Having the points above in mind, I believe that the German will increase the H2H from 2:1 to 3:1 today.

Edited by vvararu
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10 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, I'm not going to be too angry if you mention them in addition to a tennis pick or something, but don't let it become a regular thing. @Sir Puntalot might actually open some sort of a subforum if you'd like a special place for them.

@Metaphor I'm in agreement with @CzechPunter here. What you have to consider is visitors other than members who post, getting confused. I've honestly never seen a badminton tip ever on PL, but if you have some inside info on it becoming a global phenomenon, then we can open up a separate forum. ;) 

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(Badminton, Singapore Open)

Hans-Kristian Vittinghus to beat Kidambi Srikanth @3,40 with Unibet (4/10)

Lots of reasons I like to back Vittinghus here. First of all the guy is a warrior, one of most hard-working guys on the tour, so you never get it easy playing against him. Crowd also appreciate that kind of mentality, and he said himself after yesterdays match, beating world no. 11 Tsuneyama, that he got good support from the fans. Vittinghus is currently ranked 26 in the world but he is a former top 10 player. He had a rough year in 2018 but has bounced back with some impressive results this year, beating Lin Dan (Federer of badminton) in February for the first time in his career and also played two tight matches against current world champion and no 1 player Kento Momota.

Now Kidambi Srikanth is certainly a good player but this will be his 10th match in the last two weeks. Playing that many matches in a short period is just extremely physically demanding even for top athletes. The prize of winning what is likely be another physically exhausting match, will be world no 1 Momota in the next round, whom he has lost 8 times in a row. Kidambi also has Asian Championship to look forward in 1.5 weeks and right after that the Tokyo Olympics qualifying period will start. Players want to be healty and fresh for the upcoming tournaments because everyone wants to get to Tokyo. The points from Singapore Open will not count for Olympics, and this tournaments isn't as important and legendary as some others like All England Open anyway.

Vittinghus and Kidambi has faced each other five times in the past, the Indian leading 3-2. Last time they met was Denmark Open 2018 where Kidambi won 2-0 but that was during a very tough period for Vittinghus. There could be some extra motivation here to revenge that defeat on home soil.

Edited by Metaphor
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Czech - If Vesely does win for us hypothetically. 

Well, I am nearly sure of an additional result happening. This is the scenario

Jasmine Paolini stuns Arruabarrena in Bogota or Tipsarevic continues his comeback, and piles up another victory vs Norrie. 

I'm not going to mark these in bold or play them here, but if you could give opinions to which out of these two you prefer .. Because I will probably be firing important stakes on one of them, and I don't want to wait for in play in case there is retirement which I believe is unlikely anyways.. But I prefer to bet pre-match. Worked out well for me with Baghdatis losing a day or two ago. I had taken Lo at close to 10 odds about 24 hours pre-match, and the line drops all the way down to about 6 before it started. But at one point I think the odd is over 10 on Lo to win. 

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