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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - April 8 - April 14

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3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Btw, a shout-out to Nicolas Almagro, who's apparently ending his career this week by playing in home Challenger :ok. He might have some words with Melzer and come back again though :lol.

With all the problems Nico has had I doubt it would help by having some words with Jurgen. Nico is clearly going to lose in first round now to Mario Vilella Martinez who's up 5-2 in first set.

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54 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

Good pick there, although I feel rather aggrieved, at least in the first set as Delbonis had so many chances to win that set!!

Doesn't help even if he gets 100 chances to win the match judging by how the previous encounters between them in past years looked. This time wasn't any different compared to their 5 previous encounters and there probably is not a coincidence. 

Edited by four-leaf

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Giulio Zeppieri vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis @6.50 5dimes 4/10

Kokkinakis missed last three months due to same shoulder injury he had years ago. He was hitting the practice courts again in February but his shoulder didn't react well to the stress so he missed another two months because of that. Now he's starting at clay and we'll see how his shoulder react in a competitive match. He will be rusty for sure and i doubt we gonna see him playing near his best in the next few weeks. Considering clay was his worst surface (1-4 record since 2016) since having a good run on it in 2015 i am not even betting against him because of the clay. Fact is we don't know how his shoulder reacts here and his opponent is for real, Zeppieri is one of the biggest prospects in Italy right now behind Lorenzo Musetti who is also playing the tournament. 

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Okay . So People have seen how I bet here.. losing mostly on some big underdog picks.  Similar to what Opole does except he wins more picks than me :ok. I have decided for the betterment of the forum to stop posting these longshot type bets.. I will still make my own bets for these, but when I post here .. it will be on favorites to win the match similar to what Czech Punter does.. I think this is a more realistic way to help out... Godspeed !

Antonia Lottner to beat Kristyna Pliskova @ odds -127 with Pinnacle 

I have taken Lottner to upset Bencic because I thought Belinda was not in 100% health, but also I believe Lottner is playing some decent tennis at the moment as well.. So I think you got to get up on the train while its riding smooth, and this is what I feel will win.. I'm about 60 % confident. Good day all 

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it makes sense to me Czech because my scale of value is too volatile to work on a creative system where everything can bet at any price. I'm going to try this for now , and see how it works out .. I have a good feeling with it .. Trust me ! :ok

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Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat Timea Bacsinszky at 2.63 with Betfair

Sveta in a 50/50 match like this where the best fighter comes through I think I trust Sveta to battle her way through this. Sveta owns this matchup so far with 4-0 on hardcourt and losing only one set. With Svetas battle qualities the odds look wrong here. It should be 50/50 pricing so 2.63 has to be taken. I honestly don't see what makes Timea the favourite because you can't make her favourite against a player like Sveta only because she's got home advantage.

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52 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat Timea Bacsinszky at 2.63 with Betfair

Sveta in a 50/50 match like this where the best fighter comes through I think I trust Sveta to battle her way through this. Sveta owns this matchup so far with 4-0 on hardcourt and losing only one set. With Svetas battle qualities the odds look wrong here. It should be 50/50 pricing so 2.63 has to be taken. I honestly don't see what makes Timea the favourite because you can't make her favourite against a player like Sveta only because she's got home advantage.

Brilliant analysis .. I think this also is a 50/50 match, and just because its in Switzerland .. they are giving Bacsinszky a massive price.. On a neutral court you might see a line about Sveta 2.10.  I'm not sure homecourt matters as much in tennis as say for example a loud basketball game.  Really just matters who is better prepared to win, and wants it more.  actually 2.2 is a bit more accurate if its nuetral site because sveta has not won alot of matches recently 

Edited by money44

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I have a seen a clip of Bacinszky previous match now , and my own pick Lottner I am worried about.. I have concerns about both of these matches , and really looking elsewhere for something more concrete.. I do wish you luck on your pick tho. 

Edited by money44

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ATP Marrakech

Andreozzi G. - Simon G.

Simon @1.62 (unibet).

Being a great pusher and clay being the best surface for that, I'll go with Simon G. to win.

From the stats, we can see that Simon has been being a quite successful clay player till now. (see the attach). Regretfully, the stats from the same site does not look accurate for Andreozzi. However, I've checked and in 2018-2019 the guys does not have so many wins (2-3) against top 100 players. In 2019, yesterday's win agains Ramos was first out of five.

Of course anything can happen but I believe that Simon will piss the Argentinian off with his long ralleys.

 

 

Screen Shot 2019-04-10 at 17.08.27.png

Screen Shot 2019-04-10 at 17.09.13.png

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Grand Prix Hassan II

Jiri Vesely to beat Juan Ignacio Londero @ odds -117 with Pinnacle

I have seen some highlights from Jiri's last match in Morocco. Well, to be clear. He is serving the ball quite largely. His movement looks about usual. Could be better, but adequate. The net play and striking of the ball from the baseline appear to be in fine form. Jiri Vesley seems very motivated at this tournament right now, and has made the semi-finals twice here already.. I have him placed in the finals right now. 

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6 hours ago, vvararu said:

ATP Marrakech

Andreozzi G. - Simon G.

Simon @1.62 (unibet).

Being a great pusher and clay being the best surface for that, I'll go with Simon G. to win.

From the stats, we can see that Simon has been being a quite successful clay player till now. (see the attach). Regretfully, the stats from the same site does not look accurate for Andreozzi. However, I've checked and in 2018-2019 the guys does not have so many wins (2-3) against top 100 players. In 2019, yesterday's win agains Ramos was first out of five.

Of course anything can happen but I believe that Simon will piss the Argentinian off with his long ralleys.

 

 

Screen Shot 2019-04-10 at 17.08.27.png

Screen Shot 2019-04-10 at 17.09.13.png

Which website is that from? Seems it could be quite useful.

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4 minutes ago, money44 said:

Grand Prix Hassan II

Jiri Vesely to beat Juan Ignacio Londero @ odds -117 with Pinnacle

I have seen some highlights from Jiri's last match in Morocco. Well, to be clear. He is serving the ball quite largely. His movement looks about usual. Could be better, but adequate. The net play and striking of the ball from the baseline appear to be in fine form. Jiri Vesley seems very motivated at this tournament right now, and has made the semi-finals twice here already.. I have him placed in the finals right now. 

I'm on Vesely aswell, and considering to back him to win the title here. He clearly enjoys playing this tournament, participating every year since 2014 - and actually made three semifinals (2015 Casablanca).

He beat Fognini 7-6, 6-4 but the score could have easily been 6-1, 6-1. He had breakpoints in the first, third and fifth service game of Fognini in the first set, and was serving for the match 5-1 in the second.

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ATP HOUSTON

Reilly Opelka to beat Casper Ruud at 1.90

Opelka, despite his one-dimensional game, has been doing well this year, winning his maiden ATP title in NY and doing well-ish in Miami. I believe that the Houston clay is quite fast (anyone confirm?) and thus it won't be a hindrance to his main weapon. He also beat Casper in 2017 and I think he will do so again.

 

Edited by South_African_Punter

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20 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

ATP HOUSTON

Reilly Opelka to beat Casper Ruud at 1.90

Opelka, despite his one-dimensional game, has been doing well this year, winning his maiden ATP title in NY and doing well-ish in Miami. I believe that the Houston clay is quite fast (anyone confirm?) and thus it won't be a hindrance to his main weapon. He also beat Casper in 2017 and I think he will do so again.

 

Yes it is. I confirm

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56 minutes ago, Metaphor said:

Do you mind if I post a badminton tip or is this reserved for tennis only?

I would vote its fine to do here.  Because a badminton forum like this would not take off, and it could be useful to people who want to bet on that. 

There could be some rules like no more than 1-2 tips per day, and keep them in the same posting.. Not enough people will check the badminton forum regurlarly enough.. Seems like a fair exception, but Czech Punter will let you know if its allowed here or not soon probably when he wakes up in Europe. 

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I am making small exception atleast for now because one of my favorite players Ana Bogdan is in process of dismantling Sorribes Tormo in Bogota .. this is not a bold marked play... But I am heavily favoring Bogdan to win the third set .. now its late second set.. 

Perhaps for in play matches only .. I might send some opinions for longer shots, but sticking to the guns pre-match only faves 

Edited by money44

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10 hours ago, money44 said:

Grand Prix Hassan II

Jiri Vesely to beat Juan Ignacio Londero @ odds -117 with Pinnacle

I have seen some highlights from Jiri's last match in Morocco. Well, to be clear. He is serving the ball quite largely. His movement looks about usual. Could be better, but adequate. The net play and striking of the ball from the baseline appear to be in fine form. Jiri Vesley seems very motivated at this tournament right now, and has made the semi-finals twice here already.. I have him placed in the finals right now. 

I was thinking the same, Jiri seldom loses early in Marrakech. Now everything is new to JIL, he won an ATP tournament but he didn't preserve his game from Cordoba for other tournaments. He's like still on the same challenger level he had before he won Cordoba.

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