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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - April 8 - April 14

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2 hours ago, eros said:

Gl my friend, but at such low odds I honestly can't find a little bit of value. I already took Andujar, because in opposite to Delbonis he's in great form.

Andujar @ 2.34 Pinnacle

4/10

Good pick there, although I feel rather aggrieved, at least in the first set as Delbonis had so many chances to win that set!!

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3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Btw, a shout-out to Nicolas Almagro, who's apparently ending his career this week by playing in home Challenger :ok. He might have some words with Melzer and come back again though :lol.

With all the problems Nico has had I doubt it would help by having some words with Jurgen. Nico is clearly going to lose in first round now to Mario Vilella Martinez who's up 5-2 in first set.

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54 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

Good pick there, although I feel rather aggrieved, at least in the first set as Delbonis had so many chances to win that set!!

Doesn't help even if he gets 100 chances to win the match judging by how the previous encounters between them in past years looked. This time wasn't any different compared to their 5 previous encounters and there probably is not a coincidence. 

Edited by four-leaf

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Giulio Zeppieri vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis @6.50 5dimes 4/10

Kokkinakis missed last three months due to same shoulder injury he had years ago. He was hitting the practice courts again in February but his shoulder didn't react well to the stress so he missed another two months because of that. Now he's starting at clay and we'll see how his shoulder react in a competitive match. He will be rusty for sure and i doubt we gonna see him playing near his best in the next few weeks. Considering clay was his worst surface (1-4 record since 2016) since having a good run on it in 2015 i am not even betting against him because of the clay. Fact is we don't know how his shoulder reacts here and his opponent is for real, Zeppieri is one of the biggest prospects in Italy right now behind Lorenzo Musetti who is also playing the tournament. 

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Okay . So People have seen how I bet here.. losing mostly on some big underdog picks.  Similar to what Opole does except he wins more picks than me :ok. I have decided for the betterment of the forum to stop posting these longshot type bets.. I will still make my own bets for these, but when I post here .. it will be on favorites to win the match similar to what Czech Punter does.. I think this is a more realistic way to help out... Godspeed !

Antonia Lottner to beat Kristyna Pliskova @ odds -127 with Pinnacle 

I have taken Lottner to upset Bencic because I thought Belinda was not in 100% health, but also I believe Lottner is playing some decent tennis at the moment as well.. So I think you got to get up on the train while its riding smooth, and this is what I feel will win.. I'm about 60 % confident. Good day all 

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it makes sense to me Czech because my scale of value is too volatile to work on a creative system where everything can bet at any price. I'm going to try this for now , and see how it works out .. I have a good feeling with it .. Trust me ! :ok

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Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat Timea Bacsinszky at 2.63 with Betfair

Sveta in a 50/50 match like this where the best fighter comes through I think I trust Sveta to battle her way through this. Sveta owns this matchup so far with 4-0 on hardcourt and losing only one set. With Svetas battle qualities the odds look wrong here. It should be 50/50 pricing so 2.63 has to be taken. I honestly don't see what makes Timea the favourite because you can't make her favourite against a player like Sveta only because she's got home advantage.

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52 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat Timea Bacsinszky at 2.63 with Betfair

Sveta in a 50/50 match like this where the best fighter comes through I think I trust Sveta to battle her way through this. Sveta owns this matchup so far with 4-0 on hardcourt and losing only one set. With Svetas battle qualities the odds look wrong here. It should be 50/50 pricing so 2.63 has to be taken. I honestly don't see what makes Timea the favourite because you can't make her favourite against a player like Sveta only because she's got home advantage.

Brilliant analysis .. I think this also is a 50/50 match, and just because its in Switzerland .. they are giving Bacsinszky a massive price.. On a neutral court you might see a line about Sveta 2.10.  I'm not sure homecourt matters as much in tennis as say for example a loud basketball game.  Really just matters who is better prepared to win, and wants it more.  actually 2.2 is a bit more accurate if its nuetral site because sveta has not won alot of matches recently 

Edited by money44

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I have a seen a clip of Bacinszky previous match now , and my own pick Lottner I am worried about.. I have concerns about both of these matches , and really looking elsewhere for something more concrete.. I do wish you luck on your pick tho. 

Edited by money44

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ATP Marrakech

Andreozzi G. - Simon G.

Simon @1.62 (unibet).

Being a great pusher and clay being the best surface for that, I'll go with Simon G. to win.

From the stats, we can see that Simon has been being a quite successful clay player till now. (see the attach). Regretfully, the stats from the same site does not look accurate for Andreozzi. However, I've checked and in 2018-2019 the guys does not have so many wins (2-3) against top 100 players. In 2019, yesterday's win agains Ramos was first out of five.

Of course anything can happen but I believe that Simon will piss the Argentinian off with his long ralleys.

 

 

Screen Shot 2019-04-10 at 17.08.27.png

Screen Shot 2019-04-10 at 17.09.13.png

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Grand Prix Hassan II

Jiri Vesely to beat Juan Ignacio Londero @ odds -117 with Pinnacle

I have seen some highlights from Jiri's last match in Morocco. Well, to be clear. He is serving the ball quite largely. His movement looks about usual. Could be better, but adequate. The net play and striking of the ball from the baseline appear to be in fine form. Jiri Vesley seems very motivated at this tournament right now, and has made the semi-finals twice here already.. I have him placed in the finals right now. 

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6 hours ago, vvararu said:

ATP Marrakech

Andreozzi G. - Simon G.

Simon @1.62 (unibet).

Being a great pusher and clay being the best surface for that, I'll go with Simon G. to win.

From the stats, we can see that Simon has been being a quite successful clay player till now. (see the attach). Regretfully, the stats from the same site does not look accurate for Andreozzi. However, I've checked and in 2018-2019 the guys does not have so many wins (2-3) against top 100 players. In 2019, yesterday's win agains Ramos was first out of five.

Of course anything can happen but I believe that Simon will piss the Argentinian off with his long ralleys.

 

 

Screen Shot 2019-04-10 at 17.08.27.png

Screen Shot 2019-04-10 at 17.09.13.png

Which website is that from? Seems it could be quite useful.

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4 minutes ago, money44 said:

Grand Prix Hassan II

Jiri Vesely to beat Juan Ignacio Londero @ odds -117 with Pinnacle

I have seen some highlights from Jiri's last match in Morocco. Well, to be clear. He is serving the ball quite largely. His movement looks about usual. Could be better, but adequate. The net play and striking of the ball from the baseline appear to be in fine form. Jiri Vesley seems very motivated at this tournament right now, and has made the semi-finals twice here already.. I have him placed in the finals right now. 

I'm on Vesely aswell, and considering to back him to win the title here. He clearly enjoys playing this tournament, participating every year since 2014 - and actually made three semifinals (2015 Casablanca).

He beat Fognini 7-6, 6-4 but the score could have easily been 6-1, 6-1. He had breakpoints in the first, third and fifth service game of Fognini in the first set, and was serving for the match 5-1 in the second.

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ATP HOUSTON

Reilly Opelka to beat Casper Ruud at 1.90

Opelka, despite his one-dimensional game, has been doing well this year, winning his maiden ATP title in NY and doing well-ish in Miami. I believe that the Houston clay is quite fast (anyone confirm?) and thus it won't be a hindrance to his main weapon. He also beat Casper in 2017 and I think he will do so again.

 

Edited by South_African_Punter

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20 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

ATP HOUSTON

Reilly Opelka to beat Casper Ruud at 1.90

Opelka, despite his one-dimensional game, has been doing well this year, winning his maiden ATP title in NY and doing well-ish in Miami. I believe that the Houston clay is quite fast (anyone confirm?) and thus it won't be a hindrance to his main weapon. He also beat Casper in 2017 and I think he will do so again.

 

Yes it is. I confirm

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56 minutes ago, Metaphor said:

Do you mind if I post a badminton tip or is this reserved for tennis only?

I would vote its fine to do here.  Because a badminton forum like this would not take off, and it could be useful to people who want to bet on that. 

There could be some rules like no more than 1-2 tips per day, and keep them in the same posting.. Not enough people will check the badminton forum regurlarly enough.. Seems like a fair exception, but Czech Punter will let you know if its allowed here or not soon probably when he wakes up in Europe. 

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I am making small exception atleast for now because one of my favorite players Ana Bogdan is in process of dismantling Sorribes Tormo in Bogota .. this is not a bold marked play... But I am heavily favoring Bogdan to win the third set .. now its late second set.. 

Perhaps for in play matches only .. I might send some opinions for longer shots, but sticking to the guns pre-match only faves 

Edited by money44

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • ahh the Flyer. I used to be a fan   anyone know what the weather in Windsor is like?  gonna mention Polybius in the 7:40, back at the right trip and a generous price, but going dependant. good to soft atm is fine, but won’t want too much rain through the day
    • Just looking at tomorrows fixture and West Indies against Bangladesh. The 9/5 on Bangladesh looks a great price and enough for me to get involved. West Indies have been so hot and cold this tournament but ultimately, once Hope and Gayle go, it turns into a T20 match for these players. That doesn't always work. Bangladesh have been plenty solid enough in this tournament and so I'll take them to win this one. 5pts Bangladesh to beat W.Indies 9/5 Betfair
    • Monday 17/06/2019  Nottingham 08:20 FITZROVIA f/c. 13/8 stake = 10 pts WIN
    • Terrible tipping today. Apologies to anybody that was unfortunate enough to follow. I may have to be more selective in tournaments like these. Although I did lower the points on these. Looking at tomorrow for what it's worth.. Fraser Patrick beat Tom Ford in their only head-to-head 4-1 and they face eachother again tomorrow in the morning. The scot lost his Riga Masters qualifier to fellow scot, Donaldson but he played some decent stuff. Ford had some odd results though end of last season. I'll take Patrick on the handicap.  Next I'll take Xu Si when he plays the out-of-form Andrew Higginson. Higginson was whitewashed in his Riga Masters match and lost a few matches at the end of last season he should have been winning. Xu Si is in abit of form after hitting plenty of centuries at Q-School. next up I'll take Ian Burns against Scott Donaldson. Burns is a very capable player who I had some success backing last season and despite him losing the last head-to-head 4-2, prior to it he had won the prior 2 including a 5-0 whitewash. Finally, I'll take O'Neill to beat Maguire. O'Neill looked really impressive in his beating of Barry Hawkins and Maguire lost to Liam Highfield at the Riga a week ago. You have to wonder if Maguire will take this event seriously. 5pts F.Patrick (+2.5 frames) to beat T.Ford 4/5 boylesports 4pts I.Burns to beat S.Donaldson 15/8 coral 2pts X.Si to beat A.Higginson 6/4 boylesports 2.5pts J.O'Neill to beat S.Maguire 17/5 unibet  
    • Scott Griekspoor to beat Facundo Mena at 2.33 with Pinnacle No reason to have Scott as an underdog in this match. He's the reigning Blois champion and he often delivers good results at home in Netherlands and in France. Last season he even beat Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-4 6-4 in the final so he can play some very high quality tennis the older brother of Tallon Griekspoor.
    • Windsor 7.10 Come On Tier - 10/1 PP e/w thanks Come On Tier - from Lee Carter yard now as he was previously with David Simcock until till May this year, He's not ran for 55 days when he ran at Lingfield 1m AW when he won by 1.25 lengths, His other win came in his 2nd race on a racetrack at Nottingham 1m GD when winning by 3.25 lengths and his very first time on a racetrack was here GS when he came 3rd beaten 1.5 lengths when his new yard 2 years later bring him back here to try and rekindle his turf races again with Sean Levey in saddle
    • Result Doncaster 05:35 MAID IN MANHATTAN.....2nd..6/4 Todays Profit =  - 10.00 pts Current Years Profit 2019 =  + 109.62 pts.   (Years Profit 2018 = + 90.52 pts.) (Years Profit 2017 = - 73.44 pts.) (Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.) (Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.) (Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.) (Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.) (Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.) (Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.) (Years Profit 2010 = +166.01 pts.) Bank = + 2611.00 pts. Profit = + 2511.00 pts   Current Losing Run =  1
    • 3.30 Carlisle - Irish Minister 40/1@bet365
    • Kilbeggan, 19:00, Eimear, 7/2 BV
    • 2nd -  tracked leaders, went 2nd over 5f out, led over 2f out, soon headed, no impression on winner final furlong, kept on Dr Richard Kimble 15.15 Catterick 1 Pt Win @ 9\2 Paddy Power Won 3 times last year. 16/1 and visored for 1st time, last of 8 in handicap at Ripon (12f, good to firm) 11 days ago. Doesn't look in love with the game at present. 
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