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Tennis Tips - April 8 - April 14


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Monte Carlo qualification Mischa Zverev vs. Julian Ocleppo @3.35 Pinnacle 8/10 Zverev in horrendous form and shape. Looked horrible vs. Daniel in Marrakech. Clay was always his worst surface

Grigor Dimitrov -1 game @2.00 Dafabet 3/10 I like Dimitrov here for some reasons. He's living in Monte-Carlo for years now and so this is kind of a home tournament for him. He prepared well in MC

Just post what you think has value, don't force yourself into posting just favourites or underdogs, that doesn't make any sense.

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Timea Bacsinszky to beat Tamara Korpatsch at 1.30 with Paddy Power

My venture to the world of short odds misfired quite spectacularly last week, but I'm going to try my luck again here. Basically a home tournament for Timea and Korpatsch has been playing really poorly so far in 2019, so I really don't see any other result than a win for Timea here. She did lose against Korpatsch last year, but that was when she was still getting back after a long injury.

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we've got interesting prospect playing in murcia tomorrow.

carlos lopez montagud born 200km away from murcia, had some good success in murcia last month on itf tour level where he reached the semifinal and lost to alvaro lopez san martin in three sets. lopez san martin beat bagnis this week in alicante. looked also like a great prospect.

his opponent is roberto ortega-olmedo who is more adapted to hardcourt, he didn't do much on clay last year. he looks in bad shape in monterrey vs young, i think he was a bit off because he didn't play for few weeks recently.

i think lopez montagud could be a living dog here, i am risking a bet on him

carlos lopez montagud @3.15 5dimes 4/10

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Evgeny Karlovskiy to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina @ 3.80 with 5dimes

Today we have once again a player that should not be underestimated. Karlovskiy is a punisher of the ball, and this is a match of pride vs youngster Fokina. Karlovskiy serve is strong enough to hold against Fokina at will, and he will find some break opportunities firing off all cylinders from the baseline. Karlovskiy has the experience, power, motivation. He is well rested from his finals loss vs Lopez-Perez in Zhuhai. I think he was exhausted from lots of tennis that week, and Lopez Perez played quite well. Now a rejuvenated Karlovskiy after some poor losses on following hard court tournaments has had the proper time to rest. I have not seen footage on him recently, but I am not impressed by Davidovich physical strength in any of his attributes. Also I believe Evgeny has figured some things out with his own game in terms of grinding points out with few errors and using consistent slice shots.. This will work to his advantage on the clay surfaces as well. 

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3 hours ago, money44 said:

Evgeny Karlovskiy to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina @ 3.80 with 5dimes

Today we have once again a player that should not be underestimated. Karlovskiy is a punisher of the ball, and this is a match of pride vs youngster Fokina. Karlovskiy serve is strong enough to hold against Fokina at will, and he will find some break opportunities firing off all cylinders from the baseline. Karlovskiy has the experience, power, motivation. He is well rested from his finals loss vs Lopez-Perez in Zhuhai. I think he was exhausted from lots of tennis that week, and Lopez Perez played quite well. Now a rejuvenated Karlovskiy after some poor losses on following hard court tournaments has had the proper time to rest. I have not seen footage on him recently, but I am not impressed by Davidovich physical strength in any of his attributes. Also I believe Evgeny has figured some things out with his own game in terms of grinding points out with few errors and using consistent slice shots.. This will work to his advantage on the clay surfaces as well. 

On clay I can't trust a player who lost to James Ward on clay and has a 0-5 record on clay on the challenger tour. Sure it's an opportunity for Evgeny to qualify for this ATP 250 clay event but the spaniard is so mutch more versatile player with more talent so I have to skip a bet on the russian.

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Pablo Andujar to beat Federico Delbonis at 2.25 with Unibet

Pablos best time of the year is now, I think he's strong enough to play 3 clay events in a row. He successfully defended his challenger title from last year yesterday and I don't think there's gonna be any problems for him to recover in time for Marrakech. He's well prepared for this event. It's one of his favourite events and he owns a positive 5-0 record in this matchup. Federico is not in the best form ever exactly and I don't see him beating an in-form Pablo easily just because he's supposed to be tired.

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H2H between Pablo and Delbonis is malicious.

5-0 Pablo only tells the half of the story.

Delbonis was up a set and a break in the last three encounters and he regained some momentum, form and confidence after having a good run in Miami + he usually plays very good in Morocco (won the tournament in Marrakech in 2016). He was struggling a lot with the lefty serve in the past vs. Delbonis IMO and it was probably PRIME Pablo who had those problems....

Now Pablo is getting old. You can see that He was struggling with athletic players who let him run a lot like Martinez Portero or Domingues and he played two full weeks (10 matches in 12 days, only three days off in last two weeks).

I think this is a bit of a trap: Andujar defending title + 5-0 H2H....i would not bet on Pablo here tbh. I would wait for inplay odds and then deciding what to bet after seeing Andujar on court. Could be literally deadly tired and looking awful. 

Edited by opole
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Emiliana Arango to beat Bibiane Schoofs at 5.55 with Betsson

As usual it's an upset if Emiliana wins a match in Bogota like last year when she reached the quarterfinal. She hasn't done mutch since and now she's 18 years old. She obviously has a lot of points to defend this week but for a start, beating Bibi shouldn't be impossible for her.

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Hugo Dellien to beat Casper Ruud at 3.00 with bet365 

I think Ruud is overrated here. He did nothing remarkable recently while Hugo won a Challenger a few weeks ago. The surface conditions should be better for Hugo so lets try.

Edited by darko08
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1 hour ago, darko08 said:

Hugo Dellien to beat Casper Ruud at 3.00 with bet365 

I think Ruud is overrated here. He did nothing remarkable recently while Hugo won a Challenger a few weeks ago. The surface conditions should be better for Hugo so lets try.

I agree with you. I'm on as well :hope

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Giulio Zeppieri to beat Thanasi Kokkinakis at 8.00 with Betfair

Thanasi hasn't played since Aussie open and he never was a player with clay as his best surface. He's up against a 17 year old italian player player who's best result so far is taking a set off Victor Galovic in Bergamo two months ago. In Barletta so far Giulio has blasted his older compatriot Giuseppe Tresca 6-0 6-1. Judging by Giulios result in first round he shouldn't be at 8 to win this match.

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@four-leaf I remember you hyped this Taiwanese youngster Wu Tung-Lin a month ago. I didn't catch him playing but saw the results and he did beat four current or ex- top100 players in Santiago. How big is his potential? He is playing in Taipei Challenger tomorrow against Jason Jung, and I'm considering to back him at odds around 2,25.

Edited by Metaphor
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Barletta Challenger 2R

Napolitano to beat Grigelis @1.44 with 888sport

Grigelis played two singles matches and one doubles in Davis Cup on Saturday, and lost badly 6-2, 6-0 to Ouahab. According to @opole Grigelis looked sick. He did beat Kolar here in the first round but took a medical timeout in the second set, and was not far away from losing the match in the third. Despite the H2H, I think Napolitano, who has had a decent season so far, will be the winner on home soil.

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Varvara Lepchenko (+1.5 sets) to beat Amanda Anisimova at 1.96 with Pinnacle

Anisimova wasn't all that convincing against the seriously struggling Lisicki in the first round and she won only because the German went mentally missing in the second half of the match, being unable to deliver any reasonable serves. Lepchenko is an aging force, no doubts about that, but she had no problems in the first round and the faster conditions certainly suit her style, so I see her taking a set more often than not.

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1 hour ago, Metaphor said:

@four-leaf I remember you hyped this Taiwanese youngster Wu Tung-Lin a month ago. I didn't catch him playing but saw the results and he did beat four current or ex- top100 players in Santiago. How big is his potential? He is playing in Taipei Challenger tomorrow against Jason Jung, and I'm considering to back him at odds around 2,25.

Well I saw he won very easily against his compatriot in the last round and I think I'm gonna post a bet that says Tung-Lin Wu will beat Jason Jung tomorrow. He certainly is a player with something about top 200 potential in him and he's bound to climb the rankings and I haven't been all to impressed by Jason Jung so far this season and I wasn't impressed by Jason Jung last season either and have rarely been impressed by that guy.

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30 minutes ago, Metaphor said:

Barletta Challenger 2R

Napolitano to beat Grigelis @1.44 with 888sport

Grigelis played two singles matches and one doubles in Davis Cup on Saturday, and lost badly 6-2, 6-0 to Ouahab. According to @opole Grigelis looked sick. He did beat Kolar here in the first round but took a medical timeout in the second set, and was not far away from losing the match in the third. Despite the H2H, I think Napolitano, who has had a decent season so far, will be the winner on home soil.

Napolitano wins by WO

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Federico Delbonis to beat Pablo Andujar @ 1.57 with SportingBet

So Pablo has played a lot of tennis in the past 2 weeks and is probably going to feel it today, given his age. Yes he does own a 5-0 H2H in this match up but the last match between these two was in 2014, effectively making the H2H record somewhat irrelevant. Delbonis did not play all at badly in his last tournament, even managing to take a set off Djokovic.

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40 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

Federico Delbonis to beat Pablo Andujar @ 1.57 with SportingBet

So Pablo has played a lot of tennis in the past 2 weeks and is probably going to feel it today, given his age. Yes he does own a 5-0 H2H in this match up but the last match between these two was in 2014, effectively making the H2H record somewhat irrelevant. Delbonis did not play all at badly in his last tournament, even managing to take a set off Djokovic.

 

21 minutes ago, eros said:

Gl my friend, but at such low odds I honestly can't find a little bit of value. I already took Andujar, because in opposite to Delbonis he's in great form.

Andujar @ 2.34 Pinnacle

4/10

One person guaranteed to be happy at least :lol

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2 hours ago, eros said:

Gl my friend, but at such low odds I honestly can't find a little bit of value. I already took Andujar, because in opposite to Delbonis he's in great form.

Andujar @ 2.34 Pinnacle

4/10

Good pick there, although I feel rather aggrieved, at least in the first set as Delbonis had so many chances to win that set!!

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3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Btw, a shout-out to Nicolas Almagro, who's apparently ending his career this week by playing in home Challenger :ok. He might have some words with Melzer and come back again though :lol.

With all the problems Nico has had I doubt it would help by having some words with Jurgen. Nico is clearly going to lose in first round now to Mario Vilella Martinez who's up 5-2 in first set.

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54 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

Good pick there, although I feel rather aggrieved, at least in the first set as Delbonis had so many chances to win that set!!

Doesn't help even if he gets 100 chances to win the match judging by how the previous encounters between them in past years looked. This time wasn't any different compared to their 5 previous encounters and there probably is not a coincidence. 

Edited by four-leaf
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Giulio Zeppieri vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis @6.50 5dimes 4/10

Kokkinakis missed last three months due to same shoulder injury he had years ago. He was hitting the practice courts again in February but his shoulder didn't react well to the stress so he missed another two months because of that. Now he's starting at clay and we'll see how his shoulder react in a competitive match. He will be rusty for sure and i doubt we gonna see him playing near his best in the next few weeks. Considering clay was his worst surface (1-4 record since 2016) since having a good run on it in 2015 i am not even betting against him because of the clay. Fact is we don't know how his shoulder reacts here and his opponent is for real, Zeppieri is one of the biggest prospects in Italy right now behind Lorenzo Musetti who is also playing the tournament. 

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