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Tennis Tips - April 1 - April 7


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ouahab won 62 60 walk in the park for the legend. i took some more of ouahab this morning, no idea why some books had him aroiund 2.7....strange one, ouahab dominated from the first point as expe

we're good here, galdos/varillas won 75 62

C. Beck/E. Navarro vs. D. Jurak/J. Ostapenko 7.76 Pinnacle 4/10 Beck and Navarro both very good junior players, they received a wild card for the tournament in Charleston because they're probably

10 hours ago, aphro said:

Hello, everyone!

Does anybody have thoughts on Petra Martic? Looks like there's value in her odds

Petra won 2:0 
And does anyone have an eye on

Mladenovic beats Muguruza

and

Collins beats Puig?

I also see value in their odds, but expert's opinion is necessary.

 

Edited by aphro
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I can say that I was really impressed with Marcora from trom the few minutes I seen him playing Baldi.. It could be just that Baldi was serving and playing poor, and this is why Marcora won the match.. But his forehand is a real weapon, and he has a decent serve also. I sort of felt like this can be an upset as Krajinovic scorelines are not impressive so far this tournament.  But, after watching the match .. I was convinced that Marcora is the more talented player than Baldi. just my two cent opinion on that one.. I had bet Keys to beat Stephens, and now there is a trickier match coming up vs Puig after exerting alot of energy in the previous round. 

I am tempted to try a parlay of Puig/Marcora.  It seems crazy, and unlikely if you look at their oppponents.. I feel that Puig is even higher risk to lose vs Keys .. So I will probably just continue to search if there is something else in Monterrey preferred. :clap

Edited by money44
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13 hours ago, Torque said:

I'm taking two today - one from Charleston and one from Monterrey.

5pts Monica Puig to beat Danielle Rose Collins @ 1.91 William Hill

Puig looks good this week and she's beaten better players than Collins has to reach this stage. The Puerto Rican is showing some signs of returning to the form that made her an Olympic champion and if she can play near that level here she should get the better of a tough competitor in Collins. The American is unlikely to make it easy for Puig and will scrap for every ball so it could be that the best play is overs, but I'll stick to the match line and take Puig to continue her resurgence in form.

2pts Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Victoria Azarenka @ 2.10 William Hill

Pavlyuchenkova has a terrific record at this tournament and that alone would be enough for me to back her as an underdog in this one, but what also sways me is her performances so far in this edition. The Russian blew Jorovic off the court last time out without so much as dropping a game and whilst Azarenka looked in good touch against Diyas she wasn't as dominant as she should have been against Kato in the first round. At the price and taking into account her pedigree in Monterrey, Pavlyuchenkova has to be the play here.

I'm also putting a point on the double at 4.01.

 

This was a very helpful post to the forum here.. I had taken Azarenka, and I'm not sure whether I bet Puig in some parlays or not, but I was confused on both matches. 

This insight is helpful to everyone, and I would like to see you post more of your picks. I have had terrible results here recently but I am going to try and post atleast some thoughts in here to pre-match even if it may not be my best picks now .. Because I try to post these at bigger odds, and they lose .. So much of the time my secondary regular picks are far stronger

So for example yesterday I thought Mager had a real chance vs Krajinovic @ 4.65 .. I didn't post it here because I'm just running bad right now.. Also one of my best picks was Emilio Gomez who took care of business of Polansky. The match was closer than I thought.  I am not sure if Polansky played really well or what exactly happened.. So the closeness of this match makes betting on Emilio Gomez dangerous in the next round vs Young because I believe that he will be a step up from Polansky. 

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Jil Teichmann to beat Kaja Juvan @ odds -135 with Pinnacle

Teichmann beat her handily in the last tournament, and has continued rolling through the current one only dropping one game in her previous match.. She is a clay specialist, and difficult to play against for such a young player.. Teichmann is also a capable athlete, and will have trouble to lose this 

Edited by money44
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Adam Moundir vs. Laurynas Grigelis @4.33 Dafabet 4/10

I have watched Grigelis yesterday and he was clearly not fit. He was coughing all the time, he looked spent from the first point and was missing the easiest shots. It is relatively cloudy and cold (about 15-16 degrees, no sun and rainy) in Casablanca and i do not expect him to do much better today under those conditions. We all know how much pressure those lower ranked players have to compete in Davis Cup otherwise they won't get all the subsidies and other stuff like equipment by the national association. I don't think he should play right now but obviously he'll do again.

Moundir on the other side is an interesting player. He was a solid junior, nothing too spectacular but solid. He played college tennis at Old Dominion from 2014 to 2018 and had his first season at the pro circuit last year. He did well. I watched his match vs. Berankis and he was a bit nervous in the first set but played very well in the second set. I think he as some talent. Flat strokes with good power, backhand down the line looked great, serve motion is awkward but he can hit it hard. He needs to improve his movement for sure, but Berankis is a tricky player who can give you some trouble on clay aswell. I don't think Grigelis is anywhere near his best right now and Moundir will play his heart out.

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5 hours ago, money44 said:

This was a very helpful post to the forum here.. I had taken Azarenka, and I'm not sure whether I bet Puig in some parlays or not, but I was confused on both matches. 

This insight is helpful to everyone, and I would like to see you post more of your picks. I have had terrible results here recently but I am going to try and post atleast some thoughts in here to pre-match even if it may not be my best picks now .. Because I try to post these at bigger odds, and they lose .. So much of the time my secondary regular picks are far stronger

So for example yesterday I thought Mager had a real chance vs Krajinovic @ 4.65 .. I didn't post it here because I'm just running bad right now.. Also one of my best picks was Emilio Gomez who took care of business of Polansky. The match was closer than I thought.  I am not sure if Polansky played really well or what exactly happened.. So the closeness of this match makes betting on Emilio Gomez dangerous in the next round vs Young because I believe that he will be a step up from Polansky. 

I'm not sure it was that helpful! Yes Puig won but I suggested that match would go over and it didn't, plus Pavlyuchenkova got hammered by Azarenka so it's fair to say I didn't really read either match right. I made a slight profit due to how I chose to stake, but to level stakes the picks returned a loss.

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59 minutes ago, money44 said:

@torque .. you did not suggest level stakes tho..  your top rated play was Puig, and it was clearly stated risking 5 units on that. 

I realise that - my main point was that despite making a profit, neither match turned out the way I expected

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4 hours ago, opole said:

Adam Moundir vs. Laurynas Grigelis @4.33 Dafabet 4/10

I have watched Grigelis yesterday and he was clearly not fit. He was coughing all the time, he looked spent from the first point and was missing the easiest shots. It is relatively cloudy and cold (about 15-16 degrees, no sun and rainy) in Casablanca and i do not expect him to do much better today under those conditions. We all know how much pressure those lower ranked players have to compete in Davis Cup otherwise they won't get all the subsidies and other stuff like equipment by the national association. I don't think he should play right now but obviously he'll do again.

Moundir on the other side is an interesting player. He was a solid junior, nothing too spectacular but solid. He played college tennis at Old Dominion from 2014 to 2018 and had his first season at the pro circuit last year. He did well. I watched his match vs. Berankis and he was a bit nervous in the first set but played very well in the second set. I think he as some talent. Flat strokes with good power, backhand down the line looked great, serve motion is awkward but he can hit it hard. He needs to improve his movement for sure, but Berankis is a tricky player who can give you some trouble on clay aswell. I don't think Grigelis is anywhere near his best right now and Moundir will play his heart out.

cancelled, amine ahouda replaced moundir

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M. Arevalo/R. Arevalo vs. S. Galdos/J. Varillas 1.91 Dafabet 4/10

No way Arevalo brothers are even here. Prize is probably based on Marcelo who is pretty good doubles player and ranked very high but his brother Rafael is trash at that level to be fair because Galdos and Varillas are pretty good players on challenger level. Arevalo/Arevalo only beat countries like Puerto Rico, Bolivia or Paraguay in doubles over the last years. They lost to almost every decent team. I expect Peru to win that one. Simply more quality. Rafael also stand-by-player...only playing DC anymore.

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3 minutes ago, cluelessG said:

And of course now Amine Ahouda will go on to beat Grigelis...

not neccessarily, grigelis *5-4 up in the first set.

can't understand it why they're letting ahouda play the deciding rubber as he didn't play for 8-9 months and moundir was looking good yesterday....

Edited by opole
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2 hours ago, opole said:

M. Arevalo/R. Arevalo vs. S. Galdos/J. Varillas 1.91 Dafabet 4/10

No way Arevalo brothers are even here. Prize is probably based on Marcelo who is pretty good doubles player and ranked very high but his brother Rafael is trash at that level to be fair because Galdos and Varillas are pretty good players on challenger level. Arevalo/Arevalo only beat countries like Puerto Rico, Bolivia or Paraguay in doubles over the last years. They lost to almost every decent team. I expect Peru to win that one. Simply more quality. Rafael also stand-by-player...only playing DC anymore.

we're good here, galdos/varillas won 75 62

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ATP Marrakech qualification

Lamine Ouahab vs. Adrian Menendez-Maceiras @2.34 Pinnacle 5/10

SPaniard in a slump for months now, he didn't do much on clay over the last years...Ouahab will go full beast mode here i think, had a good weekend in Marrakech in Davis Cup winning one single match and one doubles match losing only the second singles rubber vs. tricky Berankis...Ouahab should be fav here! Nice matchup for him, MM has nothing to hurt him on clay.

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Lamine Ouahab to beat Adrian Menendez-Maceiras at 2.10 with William Hill

Going for that as well even though the odds have already dropped a bit. They haven't dropped that much, however, and Ouahab is still not the fav for some reason. Importantly, the Davis Cup was played on the very same courts as the ATP Marrakech tournament, so Ouahab is already thoroughly familiar with the conditions.

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3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Lamine Ouahab to beat Adrian Menendez-Maceiras at 2.10 with William Hill

Going for that as well even though the odds have already dropped a bit. They haven't dropped that much, however, and Ouahab is still not the fav for some reason. Importantly, the Davis Cup was played on the very same courts as the ATP Marrakech tournament, so Ouahab is already thoroughly familiar with the conditions.

AMM is at his best on hardcourts. It's where he has his best record.

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