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Tennis Tips - April 1 - April 7


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Andrea Arnaboldi to beat Carlos Taberner at 2.70 with Unibet

Looks like Andrea is a bit underrated now. Carlos doesn't strike me as one of the best players in this challenger tournament. He will have to do more than winning a first round match to convince me of that. Andrea is not the player you want to face when you're regularly losing matches like Carlos is doing right now. That potential Carlos showed in 2017 when he won his first challenger tournament seems long gone now and I'd be surprised if he starts climbing rapidly on the rankings again.

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ouahab won 62 60 walk in the park for the legend. i took some more of ouahab this morning, no idea why some books had him aroiund 2.7....strange one, ouahab dominated from the first point as expe

we're good here, galdos/varillas won 75 62

C. Beck/E. Navarro vs. D. Jurak/J. Ostapenko 7.76 Pinnacle 4/10 Beck and Navarro both very good junior players, they received a wild card for the tournament in Charleston because they're probably

Sticking my head out and saying that Spain has a new top player on clay coming in Carlos Alcaraz Garfia who right now is playing in Alicante versus the italian Jannik Sinner. CAG is 15 years old and already trying his luck as a pro. He's won two clay junior tournaments this season and is at a junior world no.26 which is also his career high junior ranking. He won first set 6-2 and lost second 6-3 to his italian two year older opponent. Both players are showing some great potential and I can't wait to see what both will be up to next.

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Jelena Ostapenko (-4.5) to beat Shelby Rogers at 2.00 with Bet365

I can, of course, imagine Ostapenko being really shambolic and messing things up here, but, if she's at least somewhat there, she shouldn't have too many problems routing Rogers, who's just getting back to the tour after a long break. Beating Rodina means nothing these days, that girl is now 2-10 for the season.

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7 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Jelena Ostapenko (-4.5) to beat Shelby Rogers at 2.00 with Bet365

I can, of course, imagine Ostapenko being really shambolic and messing things up here, but, if she's at least somewhat there, she shouldn't have too many problems routing Rogers, who's just getting back to the tour after a long break. Beating Rodina means nothing these days, that girl is now 2-10 for the season.

This is probably not a smart bet based on the fact that u were wrong about Rogers last time, and as I mentioned.. Rogers has done well here.. Good luck however cheers 

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Carlos Alcaraz Garfia to beat Lukas Rosol at 3.70 with Unibet

This new guy CAG really feels like the real deal. Just 15 years old and huge lack of experience but still playing good as hell. Talent wise I'd say Lukas doesn't have even half the talent CAG has. Lukas could easily be in a heep of trouble right from the start of this match.

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24 minutes ago, DrO said:

They still have that green clay surface in Charleston? It's pretty much faster than a "regular" (European),isn't it?

All clay courts in USA has green clay I think. That's at least what I've seen on every american clay tournament from challenger level and ITF level to ATP and WTA level.

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C. Beck/E. Navarro vs. D. Jurak/J. Ostapenko 7.76 Pinnacle 4/10

Beck and Navarro both very good junior players, they received a wild card for the tournament in Charleston because they're probably the best prospect doubles team out there right now with a strong 51-15 record at junior level and 8-7 at pro level. Navarro lost a close match to Siegemund last night session. Pretty good talent imo. They have played over 70 doubles matches together and i expect them to be very movitated here. Jurak and Ostapenko on the other side teaming up for the first time, Ostapenko has to play her singles match before vs. tough opponent Rogers who is btw a local from Charleston so i doubt she will go out without a fight. Ostapenko also will play in Bogota next week, tough conditions there with high altitude and a different claycourt. Jurak obviously isn't bad but doubt she alone will make a huge difference, she's old and her serve is weak. Can see an upset here if the youngsters reach their peak today.

Edited by opole
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41 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

All clay courts in USA has green clay I think. That's at least what I've seen on every american clay tournament from challenger level and ITF level to ATP and WTA level.

Houston atp is red clay tournament. The green clay is faster surface yes Dr O

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9 hours ago, opole said:

C. Beck/E. Navarro vs. D. Jurak/J. Ostapenko 7.76 Pinnacle 4/10

Beck and Navarro both very good junior players, they received a wild card for the tournament in Charleston because they're probably the best prospect doubles team out there right now with a strong 51-15 record at junior level and 8-7 at pro level. Navarro lost a close match to Siegemund last night session. Pretty good talent imo. They have played over 70 doubles matches together and i expect them to be very movitated here. Jurak and Ostapenko on the other side teaming up for the first time, Ostapenko has to play her singles match before vs. tough opponent Rogers who is btw a local from Charleston so i doubt she will go out without a fight. Ostapenko also will play in Bogota next week, tough conditions there with high altitude and a different claycourt. Jurak obviously isn't bad but doubt she alone will make a huge difference, she's old and her serve is weak. Can see an upset here if the youngsters reach their peak today.

beck/navarro won 16 63 13-11 :ok

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Well done in the doubles.

Greta Arn to beat Kristina Mladenovic at 5.00 with Unibet

Mladenovic obviously deserves to be the favourite here and she can win the match 6-2 6-2 if she turns up in full force, but the odds are way too juicy for me to turn them down given that Mladenovic isn't going through a particularly great patch of form. Greta is an aging force, but she's playing freely with no pressure and it just doesn't make sense to me to have her at 5.00 despite the obvious quality difference.

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13 minutes ago, opole said:

beck/navarro won 16 63 13-11 :ok

Nice one @opole. Goes to show what a bit of research can do. Also, @four-leaf unlucky with the young Spaniard - up a double break in the final set - should really have closed out. I guess that was the inexperience showing but he definitely looks a prospect and one to keep an eye on.

Edited by Torque
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good job on your pick @opole .. sure was a banger .. i caught the score in the tiebreak near the end of the match .. I was going to follow if Ostapenko lost her singles match like Czech said , but in the end it didn't matter.. Probably more poor serving from Jelena Ostapenko .. losing singles matches and doubles now because of this reason, and then she has inconsistent play on the ground coupled with that.. Two dangerous combinations for losing tennis 

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Based on the scorelines , it looks to me as though Gasparyan is the finer bet, and i also trust her more than greta arn .. but i'm still deciding on this .. I should probably just tail Czech punter and some other tips i found online.. its pretty clear one of the two is going to be a close match.. 

I have noticed, and maybe you have done it also .. Czech Punter .. you actually have a pretty high win percentage when you play outsiders (large odds) So I'm tempted to just roll with you on that , The scary part for me is Arn just losing to Maia, and then Mladenovic outlasting her in a compared recent opponent.. and the fact that Greta Arn is 39 years old.. So still deciding , and may actually just bet them both instead .. ok guys .. cu later on :gimme

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Okay , I have reviewed the Mladenovic match vs Haddad, and I liked what i saw to bet against Kristina. Her serving is floating the ball very softly over the net and some passive play from the baseline also.  This is a double backed play by myself and Czech Punter who have scouted this match. Typically I will play these bets alot and lose more than I like to.. Still trying to polish the style with less losing bets, but the fact that Czech Punter is included on this.. brings the equity much higher. 

I'm rating this a 49% chance for completion - good luck. 

Great(Greta) Arn to beat Kristina Mladenovic @ 4.78 with Pinnacle

 

Edited by money44
added a nick by mistake and kept it
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I am also recommending a parlay with: This bet is in conjunction with the Double backed play mentioned earlier. I see this result if Greta comes through for us. For me it makes sense, and I know there is people like Czech Punter who will ask me what does this match have to do with the tennis match in Monterrey, Mexico..  Well, I will respond to him saying that maybe it doesn't, but its just something that I see, and sometimes I get results with it.  

Danielle Rose Collins to beat Kaia Kanepi @ 1.96 with Pinnacle

:hope

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W80 Palm Harbor

Michaela Honcova vs. Elitsa Kostova @3.27 Pinnacle 3/10

Just a try. Honcova looked solid in the first round although she had some problems with here serve but hey...it's WTA. Kostova on the other side made it to the Bogota qualifying yesterday as a couple of players withdrew there. Kostova has a good record in Bogota and she played there in 2016, 2017 and 2018...Orlando - Bogota around 4-5 hr flight so definitely possible to be there on Saturday. She has a tough draw in Florida anyway with a possible match vs. #3 Kovinic in the next round and then probably #1 Gibbs. 

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Yannick Hanfmann to beat Filip Krajinovic at 3.65 with Unibet

I can buy Yannick as the heavy underdog in this match but I don't buy that Filip would run over him easily with the game he displayed last match. It's probably going to take a little bit more time for Filip to find a good rythm in his game on clay. Filip looked rusty in his first match on clay in over a year. Frederico Ferreira Silva is nothing special and Filip still lost the first set. It wont get any easier this time.

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Marcos Giron to beat Marcel Granollers Pujol at 2.05 with Unibet

Marcel is an aging force but he can still win some matches from time to time. This match though he is in risk of losing because Marcos has been in really good form all season and it doesn't seem to stop for him in Monterrey. I think Marcos is going to win this more often than not when he is in the kind of form he's in.

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