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StevieDay1983

Europa League Predictions > Mar 14th

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Europa League

Dynamo Kiev have won their last 5 matches. (Europa League)
44% of FC Sevilla's conceded goals occurred after the 75th minute. (Europa League)
Zenit have scored in 80% of their away matches. (Europa League)
Chelsea have scored 32% of their goals after the 75th minute. (Europa League)
FC Krasnodar have scored 38% of their goals after the 75th minute. (Europa League)

You can find interesting 72 Football Betting Streaks for 14.03.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-14-03-2019-13729

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Dynamo Kiev vs Chelsea

The first preview from the second legs of the last 16 in the Europa League is the done and dusted tie (or so we think!) between Dynamo Kiev and Chelsea that is set to take place at the Olimpiyskiy National Sports Complex in a 5.55pm kick-off. The time and venue makes it feel more like my weekly kick around with my mates down the local leisure centre.

Dynamo Kiev received a proverbial humping (is a humping proverbial? Probably not!) in a 3-0 loss away to Chelsea in the first leg. It's going to take something quite incredible to turn this tie around. Alyaksandr Khatskevich's side bounced back on the domestic front with a convincing 4-0 win at home to Arsenal Kiev on the weekend. There's a slight difference is class though.

Chelsea continue their resurgence under Maurizio Sarri. The Italian manager oversaw his side snatch a late equaliser in a 1-1 draw with Wolves. Ordinarily, a disappointing couple of points dropped but this was against a Wolves side that has already taken points off Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal, Tottenham, and Chelsea themselves in the league this season. Don't forget that Wolves also knocked Liverpool out of the FA Cup. So maybe not as bad a point as some might think.

Still, this is a different kettle of fish as the old saying goes. Dynamo Kiev are famously strong at home but they've faltered a couple of times this season already with defeats to Jablonec in the group stages of this competition and both FC Lviv and Karpaty Lviv in the league.

The Blues are still not great away from home. Sarri's side have only won 2 of their last 5 away matches in all competitions. I'm thinking with the score-line so convincingly in their favour they might settle for just getting the job done on aggregate. A narrow defeat won't faze them. I can see Dynamo Kiev giving it a go but coming up short.

Dynamo Kiev Double Chance @ 1.73 with MarathonBet

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.72 with Bet365

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For Benfica - Dinamo Zagreb, the Portuguese are asked to overturn 1-0 in the first match if they want to go through the Europa League quarter-finals. Low but probably the victory for the "eagles" of Lisbon
SL BENFICA vs GNK DINAMO ZAGREB @@ SL BENFICA, odds 1.47

Napoli has a much clearer landscape as he traveled to Salzburg with a 3-0 pillow in the first race. Everything for all the Austrians, so it's perfectly reasonable to choose the many goals
FC SALZBURG vs SSC NAPOLI @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.65

Valencia has a 2-1 away from the first match with her, but her work remains quite difficult in the rematch. The home team can score and stand out for both teams to score
FC KRASNODAR vs CF VALENCIA @@ Both team to score, odds 1.75

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Slavia Prague v Sevilla- Sevilla to win at 2.05 with Bet365

Sevilla was e better team in 1st leg and deserved to win, but the match ended 2-2. I don't think in second straight game the luck will cover Slavia Prague, even more so Sevilla will be with fully of confidence after their big win against Sociedad at the weekend. 

Arsenal v Rennes- Arsenal to quality at 1.80 with Bet365

Arsenal lost in 1st leg with 1-3 and now will need to covered 2 goal difference. It won't be easy against hard to beat team like Rennes, but Arsenal are different team upfront their crowd. They won with 2-0 against Manchester United before few days and i think that they can repeat the same result here.

 

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Arsenal vs Rennes

The second preview from this round of second leg matches in the Europa League last 16 comes from the Emirates Stadium where Premier League side Arsenal will be looking to overturn a disappointing 3-1 first leg deficit against Ligue 1 club Rennes in this 8pm kick-off tonight.

Arsenal were left dumb struck by the heavy loss in the first leg out in France. Sokratis first half sending off saw an early lead by the Gunners cancelled out before the French side tore the vulnerable back-line of Unai Emery's side apart. Arsenal hit back on the weekend with an impressive 2-0 win over Manchester United in the league. If that performance was any indicator of what's to come tonight then it could be an interesting game.

Rennes will be delighted to have this two goal lead coming into this second leg but will be wary of that away goal. It means even a 2-0 win for Arsenal will be enough and that's more than possible. Julien Stephan's men followed up the win last Thursday with another 3-1 win at home in the league against Caen.

There is positive news for the Gunners with Alexandre Lacazette returning from suspension after his three game ban was reduced to just two matches. Lucas Torreira will also be back available for selection. The absence of Sokratis is a blow but this will be a game where Arsenal will very much spend most of the game in the opposition half.

Only once in Europa League history has a team progressed to the next knockout round after losing the first leg 3-1. Interestingly, that was another London club in the shape of Fulham who lost 3-1 away to Juventus before beating them 4-1 at home. Imagine that score-line in today's climate!

In the previous 18 times when Arsenal have lost the first leg of a European game, they have only progressed on 3 occasions. However, one of those occasions was in the previous round against BATE Borisov. So the odds may be stacked against them but there's hope.

Rennes can come into this game in a positive mindset. Not only do they possess a two goal lead but they have also only lost one of their last seven Europa League knockout matches. That solitary loss came back in 2008 in a 1-0 defeat to Dutch side FC Twente.

I have a funny feeling that Arsenal could still do this. I felt that before the red card of Sokratis that the Gunners were in firm control of the game out in France. They are a strong side at home having won 11 of their last 13 competitive matches at home. I can see a solid win for them here either 2-0 or even 3-0 victory. It may even take extra-time if Rennes get that away goal but I really think they're up against it despite their two goal advantage.

Arsenal to Qualify @ 1.91 with William Hill

Arsenal HT/FT @ 1.80 with Ladbrokes

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I liked your post .. but now I have second thoughts.. I see that Rennes has won the first leg 3-1, and this team has been undervalued all tournament.. @i1_principe @StevieDay1983. I was on Rennes when they defeated Betis a couple weeks ago at a big price... They have a quality team, and I don't think overcoming a 2 goal deficit is any easy feat here.. I wish u guys luck, but i'm going to look at another match for a punt. 

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Worth keeping in mind as potential value bets. Going back a decade in this competition, there have been six previous KOs where the home side in the second leg lost the first leg by 2-3 goals and were then established as dogs to a favorite of under 2.00. Two of those sides won the second leg outright: Molde 1-0 over Sevilla in a round of 16 match in 2016, and Sporting 1-0 over Atletico Madrid in last year's quarterfinals. It's a small sample, but the away sides in this sample know they can lose narrowly and still advance. They may have rotated their sides, as well.

The other home dog today is Slavia. There have been six other matches in this database with the same circumstances, having drawn the first match or lost by 1. With the tie in the balance, two of those six home dogs have won outright: APOEL 2-0 over Bilbao in a 2017 round of 16 match, and Dnipro, 1-0 over Napoli in a 2015 semifinal.

Winning 4 of 12 at odds of between 3.70 and 6.00 is pretty good. Actually, one match in each small sample featured a home dog of more than 5.00, and both lost. So at odds of 3.70 to 4.99, home dogs have gone 2-5 and 2-5. If you took all 10 of those over the years, you won 12 units of profit.

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After the first leg score, for me Rennes should be favourites to qualify from the tie, but they are still outsiders, so have to go with Rennes to qualify at 2.00 (Ladbrokes).  And no, i'm not going against Arsenal because i'm a spurs fan!   

I read earlier this week that Rennes have scored at least once in every single away game they have played dating back to October 2017 which is some going.  Arsenal are not the most defensive minded of teams and therefore I think Rennes are likely to score at least 1 in this match, meaning Arsenal need to score 3 just to get to extra time.  Of course they are capable of doing that, or even winning say 4-1 to win the tie.  But I think with a 2 goal start and a proven goal scoring record away from home (they scored 3 vs Betis away in the last round), I think the French side are the value pick.

 

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Some interesting views on Rennes tonight. It seems they are saving their best performances for the Europa League with their Ligue 1 performances very average. Appreciate the comments ahead of tonight's game and it will be an intriguing one to watch. Best of luck with your bets. This is exactly why we all bounce ideas off each other. Love the contribution from you guys.

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • 2015 Newbury Eligible 8/1 888sport
    • Cameron Norrie to beat Jeremy Chardy at 3.00 with Betfair I don't see where these odds come from. I wouldn't back Jeremy as such a big favourite as he has been playing crap all season.
    • 7:40 Newbury Image Of The Moon 4/1 bet365
    • Wolves Arlecchino's Leap 9/1 b365 All the best.
    • Thanks Darran!! They go faster than that in most points which probably wasn't ideal! But always thought he was going to win. 
    • Ecuador vs Japan Group C comes to a thrilling conclusion tonight at midnight when bottom placed Ecuador will take on 3rd placed Japan at the Estadio Mineirao in Belo Horizonte. The victory will secure a place in the last 8 for the winners but a draw or defeat for either side would result in elimination. Ecuador have had a tournament to forget so far. Hernan Dario Gomez's side have lost both of their group matches against Chile and Uruguay. It means that La Tricolor come into this game needing a win to progress as a best third placed team from this group. A draw or loss would see them finish bottom. Japan were tipped by myself to struggle. They looked set to do so after the 4-0 loss to Chile in their opening game but the 2-2 draw with Uruguay suggested there was hope. A win could potentially push them into 2nd place but it's more likely to be a third placed finish and a tie against Brazil in the Quarter-Final or elimination from the group phase. I've not really been overly impressed by either side so far in this tournament. Japan offered more against Uruguay but I think that was more a case of Oscar Tabarez's team under-estimating their opponents. I think when the chips are down that Ecuador could do enough to steal a win and sneak into the last 8. Ecuador to Win @ 2.10 with Betfred Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.66 with Marathonbet
    • K. Flipkens to beat C. Wozniacki, Pinnacle @2.62 I am going against mine favourite female tennis player, all because of the injuries (back and left leg). Otherwise, I would be backing Caro at any time vs Kirsten.  I expect that even if Caro win the first set, Flipkens eventually win due to lack of matches (and wins) from the Dane.  🍺
    • Chile vs Uruguay The first game up in this final round of fixtures from Group C is between 1st placed Chile and 2nd placed Uruguay in an 8pm kick-off at the Estadio do Maracana in Rio de Janeiro. Both sides have already qualified for this game so we could see an encounter that resembles more a friendly match-up. Chile will be pleased with their performances so far. Reinaldo Rueda's men have established themselves as potential tournament winners after securing a 4-0 win over Japan and then a 2-1 victory against Ecuador. A few first team starters could be rested here but they'll be keen to keep momentum heading into a potential Quarter-Final game with Peru or Colombia. Uruguay have shown two sides of their game so far. The 4-0 obliteration of Ecuador was La Celeste at their finest but then the laborious 2-2 draw with Japan where they needed a penalty to help them on their way showed signs of weakness. Both sides will want to give key players a rest but they'll also be wary that the losers could end up facing an impressive Colombian side where as the winners will be handed a winnable tie against Peru. Both of these teams have the attacking power in their squads to make this a goal fest. Neither defence has looked impenetrable in this tournament but they're solid enough at the back. We could see a more risk-free approach by both managers. I'm not sure I can call a winner so backing a score draw seems like the most logical option. Draw @ 3.40 with BetVictor BTTS @ 1.95 with RedZone
    • Wolverhampton 19:00 Griggy 11/1 EW Skybet
    • Bluella   17.00 chepstow 9/1 ladbrokes
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