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Fader

The World Championship 2019

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To add to the Robbo pick, I have 3 more. Hawkins I fancy to beat Hang and K.Wilson and then Williams would be the test, but Williams has shown no form. Semi-final vs Robbo, I would fancy Robbo, but for 25/1 a nice alternative. Allen, in the other half, i would fancy against Yuelong and then he would face my 3rd tip Carter. Winner of that beats Selby in my eyes, which puts them up against Trump or Ronnie for a place in the final. Carter is huge, and fears nobody.

2pts E/W B.Hawkins to win the World Championship 25/1 bet365
2pts E/W M.Allen to win the World Championship 20/1 bet365
1pt E/W A.Carter to win the World Championship 125/1 boylesports

Edited by Fader
price edit* 18/04/19

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Bingham Vs Dott   Bingham -1 @ 4/7 PP

Lisowski Vs Carter  Lisowski @ 5/6 PP

Ding Vs McGill  Ding -1 @ 1/2 PP

 

Bingham won 13-5 in their only previous World Championship meeting. Am very confident of a comfortable victory for Bingham.

Lisowski has had a real breakthrough season and should have too much for Carter.

Ding beat McGill 13-4 in last year Worlds and has an unbeaten record against him.

Bet: 250 Possible return: 1,080

 

My two bets are both straight forecasts, each for 20.

1. Trump to beat Robertson in the final @ 25/1 PP

2. Robertson to beat Trump in the final @ 28/1 PP

My reasoning is that Robertson is the form horse coming into this tournament and has the easier half of the draw. Trump is playing very well at the minute and Ronnie is the only player I can see beating him. Having said that, O'Sullivan doesn't like playing Trump and I feel that Trump will prevail in their quarter.

 

 


 

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The problem with Judd Trump is his cue action. He's as talented as it comes, but he hits the ball so hard that when the real big pressure comes, he will naturally tense up too much and that's when you see him miss a ball by a mile.

I played snooker to a high level for 10 years, so I can spot this very easily. At the World Championships, he wants it so bad, the pressure just seems to mount up too much and he's crumbled numerous times where his cue action has just gone to shit.

The likes of Ronnie in comparison, truly is a Rolls Royce cue action. He'll be hard to beat.

Neil Robertson is very suited to the WC format and should go a long way. Barry Hawkins also loves this venue, but just doesn't seem to have that extra gear, something I also lacked! :rollin 

 

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Ronnie O'sullivan -6.5 frames v James Cahill 2.10 Unibet

Ronnie should honestly be trustworthy enough to lose a maximum of 3 frames against the first ever amateur to qualify for The Crucible.

Neil Robertson -4.5 frames v Michael Georgiou 1.56 Unibet

I don't know mutch about Georgiou so someone please feel free to enlighten me about him if there's anything important to put me off this bet. I think Neil should take this by at least 5 frames so 10-5 minimum against the first ever cypriot to qualify for The Crucible.

Luo Honghao +3.5 frames v Shaun Murphy 1.62 Unibet

Shaun is doing his worst ever season on tour so I doubt he's got enough for a win by more than 3 frames if he even wins the match which certainly is no certainty.

Joe Perry to beat David Gilbert 1.83 Unibet

Joe Perry the hottest qualifier of them all reeling of 30 frames without any problem at all. He only dropped 5 frames in the three qualifying matches and he's lethal at The Crucible. Nobody wants to face this guy in the first round and certainly not the last player to gain direct entry to the maindraw. David has beaten Joe before but only in matches of the shorter format of first to 5 frames. The only time it was to 6 frames Joe won 6-3 and now it's best of 19 so I'd say Joe takes this. 

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5 hours ago, Absurdity1007 said:

I agree.

Robertson carries a bit of form, and Selby is incredibly difficult to beat over matches of this length - you should always have money on Selby to win the World Championship, every single year - but it’s Ronnie’s time again.

It’s unbelievable that he’s gone 5 years without winning it, and it’s time for title number six. Clearly the greatest player ever to pick up a cue, and hopefully he can at least equal Hendry’s seven World Championships, if not surpass that figure, before he retires, because it would be a bit ridiculous if he didn’t end his career with more World Championships than anyone else in the modern era.

Ridiculous it may be, but if it happens there's only one person to blame and his name is Ronald.

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Not many would argue that he's the most naturally talented player ever. Is he the greatest though - that depends on your definition of great. I'd argue to be the greatest at anything it isn't just about talent it's also about attitude and application.

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51 minutes ago, Torque said:

Not many would argue that he's the most naturally talented player ever. Is he the greatest though - that depends on your definition of great. I'd argue to be the greatest at anything it isn't just about talent it's also about attitude and application.

 

Ronnie's attitude has been first class for some time now.

If he didn't have the application, he wouldn't be sitting at the top of the game at his age.

I am also of the opinion that he has to be cut a little more slack than others. He is of genius quality...and with can come some difficulties. Added to the fact that his father is a convicted murderer and his mother is in prison, too. Hardly an easy upbringing.

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1 hour ago, Torque said:

Not many would argue that he's the most naturally talented player ever. Is he the greatest though - that depends on your definition of great. I'd argue to be the greatest at anything it isn't just about talent it's also about attitude and application.

To me, Hendry is and always will be the greatest. He raised the bar by such an enormous amount, it's not even up for debate in my opinion. Ronnie is however the most talented by a long long way and even Hendry has admitted that on several occasions. :ok 

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Bit of an internet issue. One for tonight.

5pts M.Allen (-3.5 frames) to beat Yuelong 11/10 coral
Lovely price from Coral. Many have this at odds on. I just don't see Yuelong competing with Allen with this frame format. Never played eachother which suprises me alittle. Yuelong hasn't played the best players to qualify here and made quite hard work of beating the likes of Sharav, Highfield and Hull, who between them couldn't manage one century.

I fancy Allen here around 10-4.

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come on James, hold it together and win it.

* got to think the bottle will go, haven't you... *

 

wowwww, Cahill wins 10-8. Opens the draw nicely :)

Edited by Fader

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Well done to James Cahill,but this morning Ronnie did not look his normal self but did not make any excuses when being interviewed after the defeat.Still plenty snooker left in the tournament but have not had a bet and just like to watch it but I was pleased for Gary Wilson to get into the second round.

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Ronnie has said a few times he just doesn't get very excited for this event. He looked bored, tired, whatever it was. You get the feeling if Ronnie won, he would turn it on for the rest of the tournament though. He's so dangerous even when he doesn't look like he can be bothered but his break-building was not up to par today. Good for Cahill. really, you would have to say that 1 of about 5 or 6 could win it. Makes for an exciting tournament.

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Can't believe how bad Allen was lastnight. I do wonder if Allen (and Bingham also) let Ronnie's departare get into their head of having more chance of winning this... it's a theory.

nothing appeals to me this morning, but one possible little nice price is Scott Donaldson to have the highest break against Kyren Wilson. Kyren is ofcourse a big favourite in that match and he will probably come through it, but he isn't a big, heavy scorer. You won't see him banging out centuries ala Robertson, Ronnie and Trump.

Kyren beat Donaldson 4-1 in their only match up but that was back in 2012. Donaldson isn't a newbie here, and he beat a very good player in Lu Ning and got a 130 in that match.

4pts S.Donaldson (highest break in match) Vs K.Wilson 9/4 SpreaxEx

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Murphy Vs Robertson gets underway today. Not played eachother in a couple of years. Robertson won the last 2. You would have made Robertson an overwhelming favourite if it wasn't for the sheer powerscoring of Muphy against Honghao. Incredible scoring saw Shuan get 4 centuries in that match and 3 50+. Robertson himself did pretty well too with 2 centuries and 6 50+ scores.

I'm going to push the boat out about and go with both players to get 3+ centuries. Both very capable. More frames in this one and the only way Murphy can really win here is if he plays to the standard of his previous match. I'm also going to throw a half point at "either player to win 3 sucessive frames = no" as i think this one could be a tight match if both perform. It's a big big outsider, hence the half a point.

2pts Both players to have 3+ centuries 5/1 paddypower
0.5pts Either player to win 3 successive frames? No 28/1 bet365

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On 24 April 2019 at 12:08 PM, notanotherdonkey said:

I have placed a double on K.Wilson and J.Lisowki at just under 11-8.Good Luck.

That was pretty poor from Jack Lisowki in both sessions and has a lot to learn especially with some strange shots.Never mind onwards and upwards and keep the faith.

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Maguire takes on "The Ronnie-Slayer" James Cahill tomorrow. Maguire won the only head-2-head between the two when he beat Cahill 4-3 after Cahill being 3-2 up but i think in a match where it's a first to 13 things will be different and far more important to Maguire.

Cahill obviously did really well to beat Ronnie, but Ronnie looked really off. When would you ever see Ronnie only get one century in 9 won frames of snooker? Cahill managed 6 50+ breaks but he couldn't manage a century and sometimes broke down early. 

Maguire will wonder how is even in the 2nd round with his win over Pengfei. Pengfei was the better player in every area but i thought both played well. 2 centuries each in the 10-9 victory and a further 4 50+ and 5 50+ for Pengfei, it really was a scoring bonanza. 

I'm taking Maguire to win this one on the handicap. So many times you see a player win the biggest event of their life, and then in the next round fall to pieces and whilst i don't see Cahill "falling apart" i just can't see him scoring more than 10 frames. 

In the other game, Last years champion Mark Williams takes on Dave Gilbert. Williams had abit of a shaky start to his first round tie, but played well on the whole and I fancy him to beat Dave with a couple of frames to spare. Gilbert only managed a highest break of 75 in his win and you'd have to wonder if he has the form to compete here.

Head-2-head shows Williams with the advantage after winning the last 5. Gilbert will be buyoed by taking Williams to a decider in the World Open final last year. You would have to say that was Gilbert at his best around that time, and he still couldn't get the job done. Williams 13-8 for me.

6.5pts S.Maguire (-2.5 frames) to beat J.Cahill 8/13 bet365
6pts M.Williams (-2.5 frames) to beat D.Gilbert 4/6 bet365
2pts double (Maguire -3.5/Williams -3.5/Over 22.5 frames Selby Vs Wilson) 6/1 paddypower 

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I'm going to take Ali Carter to win his match. Currently down 9-7. I think aslong as he gets the better of the first session he should be OK. Yuelong froze alittle when he got to the end of the match against Allen, so aslong as Carter doesn't get in a position where he is 12-9 or 12-10 down then he should have every chance.

4pts A.Carter to beat Yuelong 6/4 unibet

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No bets from me today but I do fancy Yuelong and Higgins to progress but a good day in store with the 4 matches being close.I did back Gilbert on Saturday morning @4-5 when I new Williams had been in hospital and looked a bit pale in the morning session.Hope Mark makes a full recovery.

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I'm also going to back Trump to win tonight. I think a mixture of Ding mistakes and some fine play tonight will see him through. They are quite evenly matched frames played and won over the years and this looks to be another close one. I'm going to take half a point on 13-12 Judd.

4pts J.Trump to beat Ding 13/8 betfred
0.5pts Trump to win 13-12 6/1 betfred

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8 hours ago, Fader said:

I'm going to take Ali Carter to win his match. Currently down 9-7. I think aslong as he gets the better of the first session he should be OK. Yuelong froze alittle when he got to the end of the match against Allen, so aslong as Carter doesn't get in a position where he is 12-9 or 12-10 down then he should have every chance.

4pts A.Carter to beat Yuelong 6/4 unibet

Well done.Yuelong never got going this afternoon.

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So things get serious tomorrow. Quarter-Finals day. 

10am
David Gilbert Vs Kyren Wilson. Gilbert has lived somewhat of a charmed life in this tournament for me. I would love to see Dave win this one but I just think Kyren is far too strong. They played in the German Masters in Feb and Gilbert was 7-5 up before Wilson won 4 in a row, to win 9-7. David, no century in the win over Perry and then up against a perhaps poorly Williams? has done really well to take his chances, but Wilson was 6-1 down against Hawkins and come back to win in style 13-11. Hawkins started that match on fire, scoring 4 centuries and an 82 in that first 7 legs. 5 centuries for Wilson in the match and for me, he wins here with frames to spare. I'll take Wilson on then handicap.

Gary Wilson Vs Ali Carter. What a great Quarter-Final this is. They played their only h2h match last year in the China Open and Gary won 6-4. Both of these two have had to grind out their wins. Wilson beat Brecel in a decider and then Selby 13-10 whilst Ali beat Lisowski pretty easily and then came back a couple of frames down to beat Yuelong.

The strengths of Ali Carter are there to be seen. He has one of the best wills to win and is one of the most determined players on tour. His weakness though is perhaps his scoring. He is a really attacking player, yet he hasn't managed one century in 23 frames. So if this match turns scrappy you'd fancy Ali. But if Gary scores well, it's there for him.

2.30pm
John Higgins Vs Neil Robertson. John Higgins came through a mammoth game against Bingham and then the next day he's starting a Quarter-Final. For me, this is the problem with Higgins run to the final. Stamina must be abit of an issue and his long potting isn't to the standard of the other guys. He is a world class competitor though, and any mistakes he will pounce. Robertson has looked brilliant so far and really, all year, but there were few little errors creeping in at times against Murphy Neil has a good h2h against Higgins though. Let's take away the Champions League and Robertson has won the last 4 matches that would be labelled "important" really. This one for me and also the Trump match, I will be looking at after the first session has Higgins may start well.

5pts K.Wilson (-3.5 frames) to beat D.Gilbert 11/10 Paddypower
5pts G.Wilson to beat A.Carter 9/5 Ladbrokes
4pts G.Wilson (Highest break) Vs A,Carter 11/8 Betvictor

 

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Well Ding lost the first 2 frames of the evening session when in the 1st should of played safe but that set the tone for the rest of the match and 10-7 could of been different but it is what it is. -2 points for me.

Today I fancy Higgins and Wilson but both be tough games but no bet.

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