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The World Championship 2019


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5 hours ago, Absurdity1007 said:

I agree.

Robertson carries a bit of form, and Selby is incredibly difficult to beat over matches of this length - you should always have money on Selby to win the World Championship, every single year - but it’s Ronnie’s time again.

It’s unbelievable that he’s gone 5 years without winning it, and it’s time for title number six. Clearly the greatest player ever to pick up a cue, and hopefully he can at least equal Hendry’s seven World Championships, if not surpass that figure, before he retires, because it would be a bit ridiculous if he didn’t end his career with more World Championships than anyone else in the modern era.

Ridiculous it may be, but if it happens there's only one person to blame and his name is Ronald.

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Wells covers the handicap atleast. Haotian loses, but Georgiou wins. More important James Cahill hits a 25/1 winner as he beats Judge and wins group 13.

M. Holt to qualify for world championships 4.00 bet365 Xiao Guodong is the favourite to qualify for The Crucible from this group where Michael Holt is in as the natural second. Xiao Guodong shoul

Been too busy, but as soon as I saw Higgins was only 2 behind after being 6 behind. I fancied him to do the job and evens was probably about the right odds, but a bet you'd take 9 times out of 10 - go

51 minutes ago, Torque said:

Not many would argue that he's the most naturally talented player ever. Is he the greatest though - that depends on your definition of great. I'd argue to be the greatest at anything it isn't just about talent it's also about attitude and application.

 

Ronnie's attitude has been first class for some time now.

If he didn't have the application, he wouldn't be sitting at the top of the game at his age.

I am also of the opinion that he has to be cut a little more slack than others. He is of genius quality...and with can come some difficulties. Added to the fact that his father is a convicted murderer and his mother is in prison, too. Hardly an easy upbringing.

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1 hour ago, Torque said:

Not many would argue that he's the most naturally talented player ever. Is he the greatest though - that depends on your definition of great. I'd argue to be the greatest at anything it isn't just about talent it's also about attitude and application.

To me, Hendry is and always will be the greatest. He raised the bar by such an enormous amount, it's not even up for debate in my opinion. Ronnie is however the most talented by a long long way and even Hendry has admitted that on several occasions. :ok 

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Bit of an internet issue. One for tonight.

5pts M.Allen (-3.5 frames) to beat Yuelong 11/10 coral
Lovely price from Coral. Many have this at odds on. I just don't see Yuelong competing with Allen with this frame format. Never played eachother which suprises me alittle. Yuelong hasn't played the best players to qualify here and made quite hard work of beating the likes of Sharav, Highfield and Hull, who between them couldn't manage one century.

I fancy Allen here around 10-4.

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Ronnie has said a few times he just doesn't get very excited for this event. He looked bored, tired, whatever it was. You get the feeling if Ronnie won, he would turn it on for the rest of the tournament though. He's so dangerous even when he doesn't look like he can be bothered but his break-building was not up to par today. Good for Cahill. really, you would have to say that 1 of about 5 or 6 could win it. Makes for an exciting tournament.

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Can't believe how bad Allen was lastnight. I do wonder if Allen (and Bingham also) let Ronnie's departare get into their head of having more chance of winning this... it's a theory.

nothing appeals to me this morning, but one possible little nice price is Scott Donaldson to have the highest break against Kyren Wilson. Kyren is ofcourse a big favourite in that match and he will probably come through it, but he isn't a big, heavy scorer. You won't see him banging out centuries ala Robertson, Ronnie and Trump.

Kyren beat Donaldson 4-1 in their only match up but that was back in 2012. Donaldson isn't a newbie here, and he beat a very good player in Lu Ning and got a 130 in that match.

4pts S.Donaldson (highest break in match) Vs K.Wilson 9/4 SpreaxEx

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Murphy Vs Robertson gets underway today. Not played eachother in a couple of years. Robertson won the last 2. You would have made Robertson an overwhelming favourite if it wasn't for the sheer powerscoring of Muphy against Honghao. Incredible scoring saw Shuan get 4 centuries in that match and 3 50+. Robertson himself did pretty well too with 2 centuries and 6 50+ scores.

I'm going to push the boat out about and go with both players to get 3+ centuries. Both very capable. More frames in this one and the only way Murphy can really win here is if he plays to the standard of his previous match. I'm also going to throw a half point at "either player to win 3 sucessive frames = no" as i think this one could be a tight match if both perform. It's a big big outsider, hence the half a point.

2pts Both players to have 3+ centuries 5/1 paddypower
0.5pts Either player to win 3 successive frames? No 28/1 bet365

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Maguire takes on "The Ronnie-Slayer" James Cahill tomorrow. Maguire won the only head-2-head between the two when he beat Cahill 4-3 after Cahill being 3-2 up but i think in a match where it's a first to 13 things will be different and far more important to Maguire.

Cahill obviously did really well to beat Ronnie, but Ronnie looked really off. When would you ever see Ronnie only get one century in 9 won frames of snooker? Cahill managed 6 50+ breaks but he couldn't manage a century and sometimes broke down early. 

Maguire will wonder how is even in the 2nd round with his win over Pengfei. Pengfei was the better player in every area but i thought both played well. 2 centuries each in the 10-9 victory and a further 4 50+ and 5 50+ for Pengfei, it really was a scoring bonanza. 

I'm taking Maguire to win this one on the handicap. So many times you see a player win the biggest event of their life, and then in the next round fall to pieces and whilst i don't see Cahill "falling apart" i just can't see him scoring more than 10 frames. 

In the other game, Last years champion Mark Williams takes on Dave Gilbert. Williams had abit of a shaky start to his first round tie, but played well on the whole and I fancy him to beat Dave with a couple of frames to spare. Gilbert only managed a highest break of 75 in his win and you'd have to wonder if he has the form to compete here.

Head-2-head shows Williams with the advantage after winning the last 5. Gilbert will be buyoed by taking Williams to a decider in the World Open final last year. You would have to say that was Gilbert at his best around that time, and he still couldn't get the job done. Williams 13-8 for me.

6.5pts S.Maguire (-2.5 frames) to beat J.Cahill 8/13 bet365
6pts M.Williams (-2.5 frames) to beat D.Gilbert 4/6 bet365
2pts double (Maguire -3.5/Williams -3.5/Over 22.5 frames Selby Vs Wilson) 6/1 paddypower 

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I'm going to take Ali Carter to win his match. Currently down 9-7. I think aslong as he gets the better of the first session he should be OK. Yuelong froze alittle when he got to the end of the match against Allen, so aslong as Carter doesn't get in a position where he is 12-9 or 12-10 down then he should have every chance.

4pts A.Carter to beat Yuelong 6/4 unibet

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I'm also going to back Trump to win tonight. I think a mixture of Ding mistakes and some fine play tonight will see him through. They are quite evenly matched frames played and won over the years and this looks to be another close one. I'm going to take half a point on 13-12 Judd.

4pts J.Trump to beat Ding 13/8 betfred
0.5pts Trump to win 13-12 6/1 betfred

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8 hours ago, Fader said:

I'm going to take Ali Carter to win his match. Currently down 9-7. I think aslong as he gets the better of the first session he should be OK. Yuelong froze alittle when he got to the end of the match against Allen, so aslong as Carter doesn't get in a position where he is 12-9 or 12-10 down then he should have every chance.

4pts A.Carter to beat Yuelong 6/4 unibet

Well done.Yuelong never got going this afternoon.

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So things get serious tomorrow. Quarter-Finals day. 

10am
David Gilbert Vs Kyren Wilson. Gilbert has lived somewhat of a charmed life in this tournament for me. I would love to see Dave win this one but I just think Kyren is far too strong. They played in the German Masters in Feb and Gilbert was 7-5 up before Wilson won 4 in a row, to win 9-7. David, no century in the win over Perry and then up against a perhaps poorly Williams? has done really well to take his chances, but Wilson was 6-1 down against Hawkins and come back to win in style 13-11. Hawkins started that match on fire, scoring 4 centuries and an 82 in that first 7 legs. 5 centuries for Wilson in the match and for me, he wins here with frames to spare. I'll take Wilson on then handicap.

Gary Wilson Vs Ali Carter. What a great Quarter-Final this is. They played their only h2h match last year in the China Open and Gary won 6-4. Both of these two have had to grind out their wins. Wilson beat Brecel in a decider and then Selby 13-10 whilst Ali beat Lisowski pretty easily and then came back a couple of frames down to beat Yuelong.

The strengths of Ali Carter are there to be seen. He has one of the best wills to win and is one of the most determined players on tour. His weakness though is perhaps his scoring. He is a really attacking player, yet he hasn't managed one century in 23 frames. So if this match turns scrappy you'd fancy Ali. But if Gary scores well, it's there for him.

2.30pm
John Higgins Vs Neil Robertson. John Higgins came through a mammoth game against Bingham and then the next day he's starting a Quarter-Final. For me, this is the problem with Higgins run to the final. Stamina must be abit of an issue and his long potting isn't to the standard of the other guys. He is a world class competitor though, and any mistakes he will pounce. Robertson has looked brilliant so far and really, all year, but there were few little errors creeping in at times against Murphy Neil has a good h2h against Higgins though. Let's take away the Champions League and Robertson has won the last 4 matches that would be labelled "important" really. This one for me and also the Trump match, I will be looking at after the first session has Higgins may start well.

5pts K.Wilson (-3.5 frames) to beat D.Gilbert 11/10 Paddypower
5pts G.Wilson to beat A.Carter 9/5 Ladbrokes
4pts G.Wilson (Highest break) Vs A,Carter 11/8 Betvictor

 

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G.Wilson Vs A.Carter - I'm going to take over 23.5 frames in this one. I think Carter will get back into it and we'll see atleast a 13-11 here, but to be honest I think it will end up on a decider. If I hadn't had backed Wilson pre match, I'd probably be backing Carter as I see abit of nerves in Wilson.

I'm also quite tempted on K.Wilson. I've underrated Gilbert massively. If you see the nerves early on, then 4/1 is a good price.

5.5pts Over 23.5 frames - Wilson Vs Carter 8/11 betfair
 

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That's some bad luck for Ali. Flukes galore in that one.

I'm going to take Robertson tonight. He was 7-5 up last time I managed to watch any of this and then when I check it's somehow 9-7. I fancy him to win this and 7/4 is a decent enough price to get involved

4pts N.Robertson to beat J.Higgins 7/4 Betvictor

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Semi-finals. I think most people would expect to see Higgins Vs Trump in the final from here but personally would love to see Wilson Vs Gilbert. 

I will take the handicap on Wilson against Trump. I think it's been given with a lack of respect for Wilson almost. Wilson has been excellent this week and has hit ton after ton. Not to mention he has won the last head-2-head and we all know how desperate Trump is for this trophy. In the other Semi-final, I'm going to take the frames. I still think Higgins stamina will come into question and he really had the run of the balls in the latter part of the Robertson match.

5.5pts Over 28.5 frames (J.Higgins Vs D.Gilbert) 8/11 William Hill
6pts G.Wilson (+6.5 frames) to beat J.Trump betfred
2pts G.Wilson to beat J.Trump 9/2 bet365

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By all means, go for it. Trump has never won this event and I think it shows when he is a big favourite. Have you actually watched Gary Wilson in this tournament?  It's unlikely Wilson will win, hence a 2pt bet, but the handicap is a solid bet, hence the 6pts bet.  

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I think you are just looking at "Trump" the name Abs. You haven't watched any Gary Wilson matches atall. 

"He is the better player" doesn't always work. Selby was the better player. Carter is a better player too and he's beaten them both. Trump has periods where he dips a lot. He hasn't won this event and that makes a big difference. He is likely to feel the nerves just as much as Wilson. Even if Trump wins here, I would fancy Higgins to beat him in the final like he did last time Trump got to a final (which was 8 years ago...)

7 centuries so far for G.Wilson. Joint top in this event with Kyren Wilson & Maguire. Trump was brilliant in the 1st session against Maguire otherwise it could have been different in that match. He just about beat Un-Nooh after a big comeback. He just about beat Ding (after a comeback) .. by no means does it look like he can cover a handicap.

But don't let me put you off. He could destroy anybody on his day. 

 

 

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It’s not so much the name ‘Trump’ that’s influencing my bet here, rather the name Gary Wilson.

I’d be lumping on any top player here, against Gary Wilson, given both the circumstances and the length of match, particularly one who scores as heavily as Judd Trump.

 

Gary Wilson has been the standout player.

I actually stopped taking you seriously when you said that you hadn't watched any of his games.

Judd Trump has been patchy this tournament whereas Wilson has been nothing short of superb.

To base an opinion merely on a players name and rank without taking into account form is amateur to say the least.

Trump has to be favourite, but I think the bookies have priced this one up about right.

 

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That’s a bit unfair. I am a snooker fan, I just happen to have been watching the other table to the one Wilson has been on.

’Standout player’ or not, I still have to go on his career, rather than 3 matches this fortnight. David Gilbert for example, although he hasn’t been this far in Sheffield before, he has some pedigree in his career and results elsewhere, whereas Gary Wilson doesn’t have that. I think it’s a total mismatch, but we’ll have to wait and see.

 

Its actually 6 matches over this last month. He was excellent in qualifying.

Gary Wilson has been on TV a massive amount over this tournament, so I can only assume that you have turned off when his games have been on.

As this is a betting forum, I try and offer reasoned advice, and advising to back against a player that by your own admission you 'haven't seen' is just crazy.

Class and pedigree serve players well, particularly in Sheffield, but Wilson is the form player and is proving that again. His very best game may well mean he will still come up slightly short, but nothing like an -8.5 handicap that you suggest.

Edited by mcsilks
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Both Trump and Wilson have been crap really this session, but nevertheless it ends 14-10. Wilson only needs one frame to cover the handicap and Trump will no doubt offer that the way he's playing

In the other match, how Gilbert is only 2 up I have no idea. Higgins has been woeful and has had every run of the ball you could imagine. Has to be the luckiest player I've seen this tournament. However, Gilbert stated bottling it late in the session and he's only on 13 so Higgins looks the bet at evens.

5pts J.Higgins to beat D.Gilbert evens paddypower 

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