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Fader

The World Championship 2019

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A while to go yet until the big one but I want to get this in early as the price will no doubt come down if he wins the Players Championship.

Neil Robertson just looks so good right now. He has the natural long potting ability to his game still ofcourse, but he is now winning ugly too. He can now come back into games he is 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 down from and win 6-4. He has battle qualities now and has already won tournaments this year. I don't think he needs to fear anybody and will take an early 14/1 price on him.

5pts N.Robertson to win the World Championship 14/1 bet365

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Well, that 14/1 looks big now... Robertson after winning the China Open puts himself into the easier side of the draw and stays away from Trump and Ronnie until the final. Great stuff for him. Qualifiers start mid-week for this but the general draw is here :

M.Williams Vs Qualifier
Gilbert Vs Qualifier
Hawkins Vs Qualifier
K.Wilson Vs Qualifier

Higgins Vs Qualifier
Bingham Vs Qualifier
Murphy Vs Qualifier
N.Robertson Vs Qualifier

Selby Vs Qualifier
Brecel Vs Qualifier
Lisowski Vs Qualifier
Allen Vs Qualifier

Trump Vs Qualifier
Ding Vs Qualifier
Maguire Vs Qualifier
O'Sullivan Vs Qualifier

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M. Holt to qualify for world championships 4.00 bet365

Xiao Guodong is the favourite to qualify for The Crucible from this group where Michael Holt is in as the natural second. Xiao Guodong should reach the quali final but Peter Lines who is the likely second round for him can be a tough opponent to get rid of. Michael Holt beat Xiao Guodong in China last week for the first time after losing 5 in a row to the chinese. Michael shouldn't have any problems getting past Brandon Sargeant in the first round and in second round Andrew Higginson likely awaits who he should beat so he should reach the final where I think he'll be facing Peter Lines or Xiao Goudong.

I think Holt has better chances to qualify from his group than the odds suggest so the value is on Holt.

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Qualifications 

I'm looking through these markets and some of the prices for winning a couple of games of snooker are just crazy so I'll be looking for the value for this market and then onto the matches.

I won't go too much into depth with reasoning because it will take me all day with so many groups :

4pts R.Walden (group 10) 7/4 Ladbrokes
2pts H.Vafaei (group 7) 11/2  Ladbrokes
2pts C.Wakelin (group 1) 7/2 Betfred
1.5pts A.Hamilton (group 15) 10/1 Ladbrokes
1pt R.Lawler (group 11) 28/1 ladbrokes
1pt J.O'Connor (group 12) 10/1 betfred
0.5pts A.Hugill (group 4) 66/1 Ladbrokes

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I am going to swerve any bets where my qualification bet is also a part of it so for example i wont take Vafaei to beat Zhang as i have him to qualify.

I will take Ebdon and Un-Nooh on the handicap. Ebdon has been there and done it and Chandler is a player who i think struggles with nerves abit. He never seems to really get into a break and breaks down frequently. I would be suprised if he mad 5 frames today. Same as Bagley really. Un-Nooh with his pace should put pressure on him straight away.

6pts P.Ebdon (-4.5 frames) to beat H.Chandler 4/6 boylesports
5pts Un-Nooh (-6.5 frames) to beat Bagley 11/10 bet365

 

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One more for the 2.30pm starters. Albeit they will finish tomorrow.

I have James to win the group (so to speak) but I very much like him on the handicap. All 3 of the matches between these two would have been covered here and Cahill has won 1 of the last 2 even. I expect it to be a close one. Cahill has every chance.

5pts J.Cahill (+2.5 frames) to beat A.Higginson evens betvictor
 

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Looking ahead to tomorrow :

Dom Dale plays Chris Totten in one of the 10'o'clock matches and I'm not convinced that Dale will have it easy. Dale won 3 on the trot against Totten until the last matchup in Ireland where Totten got the better of him. I just don't see how Totten is 7/1 here. In my eyes, Dales last good result was beating Holt in Germany 5-1 which is the only "decent" result I think he's had this year. If I'm honest Totten has just a poor record this year, but he did beat Dale 4-3 the last time they played and I just cannot see Dale thrashing anybody right now

Robin Hull takes on Yuelong and Hull looks some value at as big as 4/1. Hull won both head-2-heads between these two. Both in 2017 and both with ease (6-2 and 4-1) I know that Yuelong has improved since then but we haven't really seen him play well since losing out to Xintong in that strange match between friends. Hull, by all means, hasn't had a great year but the strong head-2-head and the possibility of Yuelong not being on it appeals. I will leave the handicap alone on this and just have a little 1.5pt throw at this match.

5.5pts C.Totten (+5.5 frames) to beat D.Dale 8/11 Ladbrokes
1.5pts R.Hull to beat Z. Yuelong 4/1 Betfred
1.5pts C.Totten to beat D.Dale 7/1 bet365

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Started the WC with a winner.

Today I placed a rather big bet on Sharav @1,8 Unibet

He had some nice results in October, Novermber 2018, after that he didn't show much. In terms of quality though, he has to be better than his collegue who plays mostly on the Challenge Tour.

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16 hours ago, aussietennisexpert said:

vafaei nice and easy win :+1:

 

Playing well too. Fancy him against Wells too.

10am matches :
McManus takes on female Ng On Yee and you would have to fancy McManus to win heavily. Yee was here last year and got smashed by Selt 10-1 and I would expect a similar result. Mark Davis takes on Rod Lawler and I'll play it safe and back the handicap on that. You would have to think Lawler has a chance though. Davis is not playing well atall and lost to a 16 year old at the China Open.

Sam Criaige as I'm sure many would have seen, I've back quite alot in the past and I'm taking him to beat Rhys Clark on the handicap. Craigie is a powerful scorer and Clark.. well just isnt'

2.30pm matches:
Ali Carter faces Paul Davison and I'll be taking Ali on the handicap here. Ali is another league to Davison and an event as big as this, I expect him to fully compete this week and to qualify with ease.

10pts (Under 13.5 frames) A.McManus Vs Ng On Yee 7/10 coral
7pts R.Lawler (+4.5 frames) Vs M.Davis 4/7 paddypower
5.5pts S.Craigie (-4.5 frames) to beat R.Clark 10/11 paddypower
7pts A.Carter (-4.5 frames) to beat P.Davison 4/7 Paddypower

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least the other bets won to cover McManus being crap. One for today i like

3pts S.O'Sullivan to beat Xu Si. 3/1 betfred

Not 100% convinced with how the Chinese players perform in these longer events and the one time they played went to a deciding frame so worth a punt on Sean i think.

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Bit of a shocking performance from Sean, mixed with a decent performance from Si. Alot of the morning games are ones I've backed on outrights so I've left them alone personally but few for the half 2 games I like.

Jones had had a decent year. 3 50+ breaks in his win in the previous round. McGill, the same 3 50+ breaks. one head-2-head between the two, which Mgill won, but McGill can be very up and down and he's had a dodgy year. Jones has beaten some decent opposition this year, including Ding, Trump, Guodong, and I would expect him to atleast get close, if not get the win.

5pts D.Jones (+3.5 frames) to beat A.McGill 4/5 betvictor
2pts D.Jones to beat A.McGill 5/2 sportingbet

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Not the best session for Jones but had every chance and I still think he can cover the handicap. I'm going to take a look at tomorrow's matches so I'm not rushing tomorrow. 

I like Carter to win on a handicap, but there is just no value. They have set the line at 5.5 which I think is just abit of a joke. Yes, Carter could cover that but not at even to odds on. Not for me. 

Ian Burns takes on Li Hang and Burns beat Hang 4-0 on their only h2h. It's hard to truly know both of the players form based on their opponent but Burns hit 4 50+ breaks and one century against a rather surprisingly half-decent Farakh Ajaib, who himself hit 3 50+ breaks. Li Hang meanwhile hit 3 50+ breaks himself in beating Zhuang. The value has to side with Ian Burns who is still being set as such big underdog status. I will take him on the handicap.

Lu Ning faces Mark King. A rematch of the China Open (where Ning won 6-2) not much would have changed in that time. King won his last round but 3 50+ breaks against Figuerido compared to Lu Ning's classy performance against Taylor where he got 1 century and another 6 50+ breaks would point towards a repeat win for Ning.

Finally, something tells me John Astley is a good shout against Michael White. I just can't trust White to win a game unless it's somebody very poor. He scored half decent in his previous match but it was against a poor player to be fair. I think Astley will score strong himself and make this a tight contest and if it starts going against White, I can see him folding.

5pts I.Burns (+3.5 frames) to beat L.Hang 6/5 Paddypower
5pts L.Ning (-1.5 frames) to beat M.King 6/5 Paddypower
5pts J.Astley to beat M.White 6/5 bet365

 

 

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On ‎4‎/‎12‎/‎2019 at 4:30 PM, Fader said:

Awful tip on the McManus match and 10pts bet. Apoligies for this. Underestimated how crap McManus truly is.

Why apologies?

4/4 so far this WC, I picked the right ones I guess.

Today I followed you with Ning (straight, not handicap), great odds!

 

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Outsiders day tomorrow : 

Daniel Wells is in the form of his life at present. Despite Vafaei being 4-2 up and 5-4 up, at 6-6 Wells put his foot down and won the last 4 frames. In that match, he scored 3 centuries and 6 50+. So 9 50+ breaks. He looked very good in the previous round too when he beat capable fellow Welshman Clarke. He got 2 centuries there too. I can't see Gould beating him by a big margin so I'll certainly be on the handicap, but I think he can win the match. I worry alittle about the nerves late on, but that's why I'll take both in this one.

Mark Davis takes on Haotian and I'll be taking Haotian. Lyu beat Davis in March 4-2 and although this is a completely different match and one that will probably be close, I just fancy Haotian on the scoring. The gritty close frames may go to Davis, but on the whole, you'd have to fancy the young Haotian.

I have to take on Bingtao. I just can't see the love for him. He is a decent player, but Georgiou looked good against Ebdon and I think he can beat Bingtao. I just can't ignore the odds on this one. 

6pts D.Wells (+3.5 frames) to beat M.Gould 4/6 Betfred
2.5pts D.Wells to beat M.Gould 11/5 Betfred
5pts L.Haotian to beat M.Davis 11/10 Betfred
2.5pts M.Georgiou to beat Y. Bingtao 11/5 bet365


 

 

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I'm going to add Wells to be the highest break on that tie. As mentioned, he's hitting the ball so well right now. Gould without a century in his last and Wells with 3 centuries in against Vafaei. Big price. 

4pts D.Wells (Highest break in match) 11/8 bet365

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On 4/8/2019 at 12:10 PM, Fader said:

Well, that 14/1 looks big now... Robertson after winning the China Open puts himself into the easier side of the draw and stays away from Trump and Ronnie until the final. Great stuff for him. Qualifiers start mid-week for this but the general draw is here :

M.Williams Vs Gould
Gilbert Vs Perry
Hawkins Vs Li Hang
K.Wilson Vs Donaldson

Higgins Vs Davis
Bingham Vs Dott
Murphy Vs Honghao
N.Robertson Vs Georgiou

Selby Vs Xintong
Brecel Vs G.Wilson
Lisowski Vs Carter
Allen Vs Yuelong

Trump Vs Un-Nooh
Ding Vs McGill
Maguire Vs Pengfei
O'Sullivan Vs Cahill

Full draw. All starts Saturday

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