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Sir Puntalot, 5 Mar 2019 8:38pm in Chinese Football Predictions
Week 2 remaining matches tissue...
*I'm going to assume that all teams without an outright quote would win the league at least once if I ran more than 5000 sims...
I am back
New here - cannot find the Forum Rules anywhere so may need some guidance.
I have created ratings for the China Super League (just for fun !) on an excel spreadsheet that then creates odds predictions for matches. If the bookmakers are offering better odds than these then a value bet can be suggested.
Are these predictions something I can post here as its a bit lonely just preparing them for myself?
I presume a link to download my spreadsheet is a no no.
Early kick off tomorrow so early prediction - more tomorrow
So just three predictions for this weekend.
Today's game was an exciting 4 goal affair but its only the result that counts - either a winner or as in this case a loser.
Overall a good (lucky) start for the predictions on this Forum. Don't get carried away though as the losing streak is always just round the corner.
Could be the beginning of my losing streak but here is what the spreadsheet says for this weekend - three home wins hopefully.
Off to Eastbourne to watch the tennis today - looks like a sunny day.
Details on how these selections are made is described in the 'Betting Strategies and Systems' forum while the stake is the % probability of the outcome occurring as per the system spreadsheet. More predictions next Friday.
At the start of the Season I gave Beijing Guoan a 100pt rating increase due to their team strengthening and this proved correct with Bejing Guoan currently sitting top of the league.
I read today that Rafael Benitez is joining Dalian Yifang as manager but I intend to let the system amend their rating according to results. The tempation is to add 50pts as Dalian Yifang must have aspirations beyond their current mid-table position however this may take time. Lets see what happens.
Current team ratings after 15 games compared with last season's closing rating and this season's start are;
Unsurprisingly given my decision not to adjust the rating for Dalian Yifang following the arrival of Benitez my system recommends a gamble on their opponents this weekend. The other prediction is also a longshot so do not be surprised if we see a blank this weekend.
The stake represents the systems expected percentage true odds so at 32 % and 28% they are unlikely to be successful but if they are the rewards are worthwhile.
So the new manager bounce may be occuring and the system will adjust accordingly for this though in retrospect a small nudge in the right direction would have helped.
Some early games this coming week so watch out for some equally early predictions.
Just one prediction for this week and another longshot I am afraid so expect the worst.Regarding Dalian Yifang the system has agreed with the market and the odds on offer are within 2% of the expected result so no value bet available.
Well that was a turn-up for my trousers a 3-2 win. I took odds of 43/10 fairly early on and watched as the odds steadily dropped over the past few days. However 5/2 was still on offer just before kick off.
I may live to regret not adding that bonus to Dalian Yifang following the appointment of Benitez as manager as once again the system is predicting them to lose in the midweek game. Maybe they will.
Fortunately the Benitez bounce has ended with a bump.
Just the single selection for this coming weekend.
I always say if you are going to get it wrong do it in a big way.
No Selections for this weekend. On holiday now but will try to post selections for the weekend 2-4 August from sunny Torquay if I get time.
Two rather unlikely selections for this weekend. I should probably double check these but as I am drinking beer by the pool not sure I will bother so here goes and if they come in it will help pay for the holiday.
Two rather more sane selections for this weekend.
Five losses on the trot is a bit concerning so lets hope we have a good midweek with these selections.
Just keeping our noses in front
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