Tennis Tips - March 18 - March 24

[four-leaf]

Aliaksandra Sasnovich to beat Viktorija Golubic at 2.25 with Unibet

I don't get it, why is Aliaksandra the underdog here? Just because Viktorija won a 125k event and passed the qualies in Miami it doesn't make her better than Aliaksandra. Sure Viktorija has some form but she met Aliaksandra last season three times and lost every time. She has beaten Aliaksandra once in 2013 on clay in Palermo qualies. Now Aliaksandra is higher ranked and she's playing some good tennis to be a top 40 player so I don't think she will lose this match if she maintains a top 40 quality. Viktorija is not the better player on paper but we'll see how it looks like in reality.

[four-leaf]

Malek Jaziri to beat Dan Evans at 3.00 with Unibet

Dan has never won a maindraw match in Miami. Malek has won several matches in Miami maindraw. I see no reason why Malek should be the underdog here. On paper this match looks even with a slight advantage to Malek who already has won a few matches in Miami. I don't put mutch attention to the ranking of both players but Malek is a bit higher but I don't think that is significant. Anyway this should be a fun match to watch and Malek is probably worth a large stake.

[darko08]

@MaliMisko12 Nope, why u said that? 

Samantha Stosur to beat Madison Keys at 4.25 with 888

First match here for Keys after falling in the first round against Barthel in Indian Wells. Stosur has already one win here against Rodina (6-4, 6-2) and Keys is not in her best so the odds for Stosur looks juicy.

Irina-Camelia Begu to beat Bianca Andreescu at 3.50 with bet365

I think Andreescu will be finally tired after a lot of matches. She comes here after winning in Indian Wells (she played 7 matches there including 2 exhausting matches for her against Svitolina in semis and Kerber in the final). Begu doesn’t look the best opponent for Andreescu considering her possible fatigue cause Begu can take her into long rallies.

Yafan Wang (-2,5 Games) to beat Kristina Mladenovic at 1.86 with Marathonbet

Mladenovic is still getting bad results in singles and I think Wang will be too much solid for her.

[darko08]

Pierre Hughes Herbert (+3,5 Games) to beat Filip Krajinovic at 1.87 with Marathonbet

Krajinovic played well in Indian Wells but I think he’s overrated here. I will take the handicap games to take less risks (I think this line has to be covered without problems by Herbert).

Joao Sousa (2-0) to beat Tseng Chun-hsin at 1.77 with 888

Too much difference. If nothing strange happens here this should be an easy match for Joao.

Thiago Monteiro to beat Bernard Tomic at 2.12 with 888

Monteiro has already 2 wins here (Majchrzak and Harris) and he will face the unpredictable Tomic who has very bad results recently.

A lot of matches for me today so if I don’t get profit at the end of the day I will take a long rest.

@eros good luck! Andreescu has a lot matches on her legs, she has to be tired.. Let's see

[darko08]

Ernests Gublis to beat Miomir Kecmanovic at 2.50 with bet365

Last bet that i had on my mind for today and tomorrow. I don't like to trust in this kind of eccentric players but Gulbis is better player than Kecmanovic. Kecmanovic is overrated for his quarterfinals in Indian Wells but it's important to remark the wins he had there and the fact that he lost in his second match of the qualy against Giron. The odds are also influenced for the 3 consecutive loses of Gulbis but i don't care, he's the better player here.

I was thinking to bet for Feli because i have a lot of doubts about the implication of Paire but finally i won't. Let's see what happens there.

[Foxstar]

@four-leaf and how right you where regarding Ajla Tomljanović!!! 

Edited March 21, 2019 by Foxstar
Small ammendements to the text.

[four-leaf]

Seems like Malek Jaziri doesn't want to play today. He's gonna lose in straight sets I guess so that's one more losingbet unless something radical change comes to fix the way Malek is playing now. Now I at least understand why Maleks odds were so high.

Big misstake to bet on that useless tunisian.

[darko08]

Albert Ramos-Viñolas to beat Lucas Pouille at 2.48 with 888

The last time Pouille won a match was 2 months ago. Albert Ramos has already 1 win here against Copil (6-4, 6-2). He also won 2 matches in Indian Wells against Dzumhur (6-2, 6-1) and Cecchinato (6-4, 6-2). He finally was destroyed by Monfils (6-0, 6-3) but I don’t care so much that loss considering how is playing Monfils. Considering the recent results of both players Ramos should be the favorite here.

[darko08]

Aliaksandra Sasnovich to beat Caroline Wozniacki at 2.88 with 888

Sasnovich is not getting good results but she’s very good and she can trouble any player when she’s focused. The last time Woz won a match was like 2 months ago in the AO. She comes here after losing in the first round in Indian Wells against Alexandrova while Sasnovich has already 1 win here against Golubic.

[darko08]

Miomir Kecmanovic to beat Frances Tiafoe at 2.00 with William Hill

Tiafoe is in a bad shape and this will be his first match here after losing in the first round against Jarry in Indian Wells. Kecmanovic has 1 win here against Gulbis in straight sets and also won some matches in Indian Wells.

Radu Albot (+5.0 Games) to beat Roger Federer at 1.88 with Marathonbet

Albot is in the best moment of his career and he has already 3 wins here. Federer played incredibly well in Indian Wells but finally he choked against Thiem. I think this handicap should be covered by Albot considering his form.

Su-Wei Hsieh to beat Naomi Osaka at 2.96 with Marathonbet

Hsieh has win here against Riske (6-2, 7-5) while Osaka won in her first match here Wickmayer in a 3 set match. I don’t see Osaka playing her best tennis now and I still impressed for how Hsieh played in Dubai so im gonna take her here.

Monica Niculescu to beat Caroline Wozniacki at 3.50 with bet365

I will try another bet against Woz who is far from her best form. She won here her first match since the AO against Sasnovich (who also is getting bad results recently). Niculescu has 4 wins here (Arruaburrena, Kozlova, Zidansek and Muguruza).

[Torque]

2 hours ago, eros said:

Some interesting matches I think we should get involved today but I have no time for detailed previews so I'm just giving 1 short recommendation and I hope the winning train keeps on rollin'.
 

ATP Miami - R2
Radu Albot - Roger Federer
Radu Albot (+1.5 Sets) @ 3.10 Pinnacle
5/10
 

Albot is on fire, he is as good as he never has been before in his career and should be able to gain 1 set today against Federer I think - the machine is a hard fighter and as well mentally as physically on the top. After his tough loss in in the finals of the BNP Paribas Open Roger I think will have the same problems as Dominic had yesterday so I totally see parallels to Thiem's overall condition.

 

 

Good luck with this. Albot will never have a better chance to take at least a set against a top player like Federer that's for sure. As you say he's in great form and despite winning in Dubai and making the final in Indian Wells for me Federer isn't playing that well. He also bombed out of this tourney last year against Kokkinakis in his first match after losing the Indian Wells final against Del Potro and there's no way these conditions are ideal for him.

[Torque]

Come on Radu, one more hold 

[Torque]

Mustard. If you aren't exhausted (i.e Tsitsipas in Dubai) and if you can forget who's across you from the net (i.e Kohlschreiber and Verdasco in Dubai) you can get at Federer. He's absolutely beatable, which is no real surprise as he's 37 years old now. What is surprising is the other players still haven't really cottoned onto this yet.

[Torque]

Beating Federer now for me is a mental thing, it's not physical or technical in terms of tennis ability. It's can you play the opponent and their level not the name because make no mistake, Federer's level is dropping.

[Torque]

Good shout about Hsieh @eros She's a pain to play against and she pushed Osaka hard at the Aussie Open so no real surprise to see her get the win against Osaka here, especially after the way Osaka performed against Wickmayer where she nearly let her emotions get the better of her.

Edited March 23, 2019 by Torque

[darko08]

12 minutes ago, Torque said:

Mustard. If you aren't exhausted (i.e Tsitsipas in Dubai) and if you can forget who's across you from the net (i.e Kohlschreiber and Verdasco in Dubai) you can get at Federer. He's absolutely beatable, which is no real surprise as he's 37 years old now. What is surprising is the other players still haven't really cottoned onto this yet.

Well, you're talking about Federer like anyone can beat him... Come on... Albot has take a set from him but don't forget that Albot is actually one of the most in form players. Federer is beatable? Of course, but not by any kind of player...

[Torque]

Albot is a top 100 player more or less, despite his current ranking. What I meant, obviously, was any good player can beat Federer now and in my opinion if you're a top 100 player then you're a good player - you can play tennis to a high standard and most likely what stops you getting to the highest echelons of the game is consistency but you don't need consistency to beat Federer in one match.

[Torque]

Just ask Kokkinakis, Millman, Donskoy etc

[Torque]

23 minutes ago, Torque said:

Beating Federer now for me is a mental thing, it's not physical or technical in terms of tennis ability. It's can you play the opponent and their level not the name because make no mistake, Federer's level is dropping.

For Albot now it's about belief. If he genuinely believes he can beat the legend that is Federer then he has a chance. If not, expect Federer to win.

Edited March 23, 2019 by Torque

[Torque]

Federer breaks Albot to sneak the second set. That's likely to be game, set and match.

[Torque]

Apologies for hijacking the thread with talk about Albot v Federer but I'm watching it and it's fascinating. Such an insight into the psychology of tennis. Federer is there for the taking but because it's Federer Albot is unsure of himself.

[Torque]

49 minutes ago, Torque said:

Federer breaks Albot to sneak the second set. That's likely to be game, set and match.

And it was. Federer through in three. I'm convinced if Albot had been up against anyone other than a legend of the sport he wouldn't have folded the way he did. Pressure does strange things and for me the pressure of facing off against Federer was what did for Albot.

[aussietennisexpert]

Fognini to win a Set  @ 1.57 bet365 5/10

7-2 record vs rba even though last matches date back 2017 and has taken a set in one of the 2 losses.

Fabio did a semin final in Miami before (and has beaten rba there), while rba's best is 2 ro16

Rba looked tired and not dominant against Tissparevic who's mostly a challenger player nowadays.

Now Fabio hasn't really found form this season with 4 early exits in the last 4 tournaments.

This is as much a bet against rba as a bet for Fabio ...

If Fabio wins the first set he has a very good chance of winning the match..

Edited March 24, 2019 by aussietennisexpert

[Champion]

 

Yulia Putintseva - Anastasija Sevastova Full Event Home (ML) @ 2.73 8/10 PINNACLE

Putintseva won the last four games of both sets to beat an unusually wayward Bencic. She played with more aggression, variety and consistency than she did losing to the Swiss recently in Melbourne, hitting deep into both corners and mixing more slice into the rallies. Once again there were plenty of dramatic antics by both players between points, but this time Putintseva managed to keep her focus during play as Bencic succumbed to frustration, receiving a point penalty for a second code violation in the penultimate game. Playing on a slower surface this time, Bencic failed to dictate enough points or work her way often enough inside the court, instead spraying too many low-percentage errors from disadvantageous positions, especially when it counted most. The Swiss converted just 1 of 6 break points and allowed Putintseva to win 72% of points behind her underwhelming second serve. Yulia made Belinda play a lot of balls and displayed very solid and consistent depth.

On the other hand Sevastova edged out a very hot-and-cold Siniakova in a ragged, see-saw encounter of three sets. In a contest featuring several lengthy strings of unanswered games, Sevastova made just 50% of her first serves overall (33% in the second set), had to break for the match after failing to serve it out, and wasn't a lot more consistent than the Czech off the ground. But she managed to hold her rally game together and contain her frustration in the end. Siniakova played a few decent games at the beginning and a crisp, aggressive second set, but utterly failed to maintain that level when it really counted and never showed any sign of trying to rein in her margins or adjust her tactics. Sevastova took an MTO after 3 games for what appeared to be a superficial injury to her right index finger. Neither played well at the same time, a messy no-rhythm match, with more misses than hits. Sevastova seemed to cope better with the wild swings in fortune..

Ptutinceva plays at HOME she feels great here and is able to win it - odds are great value here!

[South_African_Punter]

Kyle Edmund to beat Milos Raonic at 2.25 with SportingBet

I think Milos Raonic was fortunate to get to the SFs of Indian Wells last week, especially given that he nearly lost to a player outside of the Top 200. He hasn't yet played a match here, as he got a bye in R2 after his opponent withdrew. Kyle Edmund is getting quite a few wins under his belt now having come back from injury. He's in a run of good form here. Also the somewhat slow-ish surface should dent Raonic's most powerful weapon.

[four-leaf]

David Ferrer is playing good tennis at the end of his career. I think he's got a pretty good shot at reaching the fourth round of Miami if he plays as good as he did when he defeated Sascha.

[MaliMisko12]

Guys what do you think about Krajinovic-Federer tomorrow.At Indian Wells I saw and now at Miami that Federer after first set lost his energy,unforced errors at backhand and return for servis are so bad that I have some feeling that Krajinovic can suprise him?

[Korayu]

1 minute ago, MaliMisko12 said:

Guys what do you think about Krajinovic-Federer tomorrow.At Indian Wells I saw and now at Miami that Federer after first set lost his energy,unforced errors at backhand and return for servis are so bad that I have some feeling that Krajinovic can suprise him?

I think he can have a chance getting a set from Federer like Radu did.Players who is playing with Federer have really big pressure on them cos you know he is a legend.Krajinovic came back from 5-2 at final set tiebreak yesterday.Dunno it was Stans faults or himself fight but he did good job.I prob put some bet on Krajinovic +1.5.

[Sir Puntalot]

 to PL @Korayu   

[Torque]

1 hour ago, MaliMisko12 said:

Guys what do you think about Krajinovic-Federer tomorrow.At Indian Wells I saw and now at Miami that Federer after first set lost his energy,unforced errors at backhand and return for servis are so bad that I have some feeling that Krajinovic can suprise him?

 

50 minutes ago, Korayu said:

I think he can have a chance getting a set from Federer like Radu did.Players who is playing with Federer have really big pressure on them cos you know he is a legend.Krajinovic came back from 5-2 at final set tiebreak yesterday.Dunno it was Stans faults or himself fight but he did good job.I prob put some bet on Krajinovic +1.5.

Krajinovic should have every chance. He took a set against Federer the last time they played each other.