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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - March 4 - March 10

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@darko08 - One way you can describe value is if you are backing a bet with odds of  1.6 .. You better be absolutely sure that bet is going to win unless you are doing it in a parlay. 

Vondrousova just played a very long tournament in Budapest.. I did not see her matches but I can almost guarantee you that Ostapenko is more rested than her.  Ostapenko just clobbered a very talented player in the last round only conceding 3 games total.  She is far more experienced than Marketa, and just as talented if not more so.. 

Ostapenko has made the 2nd and 3rd round here in successive years, and she will want to improve on that performance this year as well... i haven't seen the draw but she could advance to the quarterfinals this go round. 

Ostapenko's countrywoman also has advanced in this tournament as well.. I think that provides some additional motivation for whatever reason. 

When we are betting ... we never know when are gonna be correct , but if you take that bet ... like i said ... there is too much of a doubt in this case to lay that type of odds.. The match is atleast 50/50 based on this analysis I've given you... You have no reason such as Ostapenko is injured or something like that... I am 70% confident Ostapenko will take the match

 

Edited by money44

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14 minutes ago, money44 said:

@darko08 - One way you can describe value is if you are backing a bet with odds of  1.6 .. You better be absolutely sure that bet is going to win unless you are doing it in a parlay. 

Vondrousova just played a very long tournament in Budapest.. I did not see her matches but I can almost guarantee you that Ostapenko is more rested than her.  Ostapenko just clobbered a very talented player in the last round only conceding 3 games total.  She is far more experienced than Marketa, and just as talented if not more so.. 

Ostapenko has made the 2nd and 3rd round here in successive years, and she will want to improve on that performance this year as well... i haven't seen the draw but she could advance to the quarterfinals this go round. 

Ostapenko's countrywoman also has advanced in this tournament as well.. I think that provides some additional motivation for whatever reason. 

When you are betting ... you never know when you are gonna be correct , but if you take that bet ... like i said ... there is too much of a doubt in this case to lay that type of odds.. The match is atleast 50/50 based on this analysis I've given you... You have no reason such as Ostapenko is injured or something like that... I am 70% confident Ostapenko will take the match

 

Yeah, I rarely post a bet saying that there is value on there. In this case i can't say that there is value on taking Vondrousova, it's another personal appreciation like almost all my bets. I have following her for a long time and i think that her game can cause some damage to Ostapenko if she's not accurate with her aggressiveness because Vondrousova has a strong defense.

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The problem with backing Ostapenko is similar to that of backing Fognini. So wildly unpredictable that it's impossible to have any degree of confidence in backing her. She can as easily lose 6-0, 6-0 as win 6-0, 6-0. She doesn't have that "fighter spirit" of someone like Halep.

Edited by South_African_Punter

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54-128 +122.65 units

Parlay Alex Bolt/Roberto Carballes Baena @ 8.94 with 5dimes

6 units

Pella already got beaten easily in his doubles match and this is his first tournament on hard.. Bolt is having some decent results at Indian Wells the past week. Schwartzman still struggling with some injury or something, and Baena winning in straight sets last match as an outside vs decent enough hard court player

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In the end, I skipped backing Mayer for a set against Monfils, but Ramos-Vinolas and Bonaventure both delivered, so it's all good.

Back Kyle Edmund + Stan Wawrinka to beat N Jarry, M Fucsovics at evens with Expekt

Cannot really see Jarry troubling Edmund here, beating Tiafoe nowadays doesn't look like a big achievement (at least for me). Edmund should be fired up after his last week performances and I expect him to go for even more here. Fucsovics parted ways with his coach a few days ago, but apart from that, I would have still expected Wawrinka to stop his recent good run.

I am also thinking about going another round with Johnson (vs Shapovalov), Haase beating Rublev, and Muguruza to take a set against Serena.

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4 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

The problem with backing Ostapenko is similar to that of backing Fognini. So wildly unpredictable that it's impossible to have any degree of confidence in backing her. She can as easily lose 6-0, 6-0 as win 6-0, 6-0. She doesn't have that "fighter spirit" of someone like Halep.

But Fognini and Ostapenko have different problems. The problem of Fognini is his implication, he has tanked 3 consecutive tournaments in the south american tour and it's something that he does very regularly (i can't understand why the ATP does nothing in front of this). Ostapenko is unpredictable but for her super aggressive style of playing. 

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4 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

If Jelena Ostapenko gets her winner count going she's hard to stop. When she's in the zone I mean it's very difficult to beat her and I think she's in that zone right now.

I agree with this, and for some reason, I was already thinking about backing her in the first round, skipped though. Anyways, would like to see her putting at least two wins in a row to finally believe she is back in the zone :) 

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12 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

If Jelena Ostapenko gets her winner count going she's hard to stop. When she's in the zone I mean it's very difficult to beat her and I think she's in that zone right now.

All about her serve for me, if shes not hitting first serves then she gets broke... a lot. Seems to be all about confidence as well, she gets into ruts easily and serves doubles. 

But on the other hand if the opponents serve isn't working very good she is excellent at punishing it. Osta is almost a 50/50 in every match. I'd always prefer to watch a couple.

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I'd honestly rather watch anyone else than her, her matches are giving me panic attacks.

And a reminder guys - with almost nine pages of content in this thread already, let's please move on to the next week's thread for next week's picks from tomorrow :ok.

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Feliciano López (+3.0 Games) to beat Kharen Khachanov at 1.94 with Marathonbet

Based on the horrible recent form of Kharen. He’s on 3 losing streak since the AO (Berrettini, Griekspoor and Basilashvili). This will his first match here while Feli has already 1 win here against Berdych (7-6, 6-6).

Filip Krajinovic to beat David Goffin at 2.80 with Marathonbet

Krajinovic has already 3 wins here against Ramanathan (6-4, 6-0), Berankis (6-3, 7-5) and Kukushkin (6-3, 6-4). This will be the first match for Goffin here and his recent results are not good.

Alex Bolt to beat Guido Pella at 2.40 with 888

Bolt has already 3 wins here against Quinzi (6-4, 7-5), Eubanks (7-6,7-6) and Gulbis (6-3, 5-7, 6-2). Pella comes from the south American tour and this will be his first match here.

Alexei Popyrin (+3.0 Games) to beat John Isner at 1.95 with Marathonbet

Popyrin has already 3 wins here against Kovalik (6-3, 6-3), Rosol (7-5, 6-3) and Munar (7-6, 6-3). This will the first match for Isner here and he’s not getting good results recently.

 

@CSanders22 yep, that's probably one of the keys of the match. Take a look at the stats of her match against Brady in Dubai where she lost 6-4 and 6-0. Ostapenko has not a good serve and her second serve is very vulnerable. Vondrousova has a decent serve including her second serves. Ostapenko will need to play with first serves or she will concede a lot of BP. I don't know the stats about this but what results has Ostapenko against lefty players? That will be interesting to know. Another point, Vondrousova destroyed Daria with a lot of drop shots (she has a nice ability to do that) and Ostapenko is a baseliner she will have to be aware of that.

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I've won handsomely this week conservatively betting on Gunnerswan who I've followed through the challenger series closely the past year or so.Generally I'd rank him a 60-70 player and a 45 ranked player who can upset a top 50 regurlarly. I remember him at AO this year and could have gone farther had he not met Tiafoe.I think If Wawrinka can upset Federer(looking at his side of the draw) it possible this Masters 1000 is his for the taking.

Nole isn't  looking unbeatable and if it's a man to upset him in the final its none other than Stanimal.

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Today I'm taking Nadal,Wawrinka,Nishikori all based on virtuous superiority. Fucsovics is regurlaly underrated around here n people lose money, I never bet against him that said i'm silently rooting for stan this tournament.

I never bet on WTA which I equate to throwing money away but I have a hunch on Ostaponenko today.

The matches that I'll follow for upsets are Kachanov/Feli which will come down to aces contest and who will throw more.Kachanov this year having th finals curse that followed Dimitov and might take feli.

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9 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

6-4 *3-0 and Kvitova still lost apparently, even though she then even had a break lead in the decider. How can you not love tennis? It really has been a nightmare ride for me since the Australian Open, I'll be only in a cosmetic profit for the year in posted picks if Nadal doesn't cover today. That said, the recent days were great for my pre-season picks, so there's that small plus at the very least. Great job to everyone who's making a sense out of this Indian Wells though!

You know the swings can be bad sometimes. I am pretty sure everything will change for you in the second part of the season.

 

Two from me.

Ostapenko - Vondarusova 2.32 Pinnacle

 

For the first time this season Ostapenko showed class in his match against Zhang. Vondurosova had some tough moments in her first match. I expect here 2:0 win for Jelena. Ostapenko is a player that is searching her form in many tournaments before hitting the bull's eye.

Krajnovic - Goffin 2,65 Betclick

 

The odds already went down for this one. Still have a value even at 2.50. Krajnovic beat some inform guys as Berankins and Kukushkin in two sets. He smashed Goffin a month ago. David seems to have big problems in last 12 months. Everything started when Dimitrov injured his eye. David is out from Top 20. He don't have points to defend here.

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Thanks - I mean I'm always happy with whatever plus there is, but I obviously wouldn't mind being a bit more lucky :lol. I'd like Vondrousova to win for my pre-season bet and I think that she might, but I'll be cheering for Ostapenko for you guys, there's still plenty of time for the Czech to get her points :ok.

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10 hours ago, darko08 said:

@money44 Yeah, maybe Ostapenko wins this but what is "value"? I think value really never exist in sports betting, it’s just a personal appreciation that sometimes can be reforced with some objective facts but objectively talking value can’t exist because bookies take in consideration all the objective facts possible to fix the odds. You can say “well there is value when bookies make mistakes” but I don’t think so, you can think that but probably there are a lot of other objective facts that bookies have considered and you not. I think that real value (considering this as objective value) only can be found in facts that bookies can’t predict: tanking, physical problems… so If you’re not considering any of these facts don’t have sense talking about value, just about personal appreciations.

You say "just a personal appreciation" as if personal is something misleading or unreliable. Well, betting is all about probabilities, right? And I've read a few "definitions" of probability that say it's about our belief in the chances of an event happening. So yes, it's personal but it does not mean it's impractical or out of touch with reality or that it cannot be used to make predictions.

Consider a simple question about the chances of landing heads or tails when tossing a fair coin: it assumes the coin is fair. It's all good and easy as a probability problem. But pick a random coin. How do you know, how can you be certain in its fairness? So it's always about assumptions and beliefs, not just about "objective facts".

The way I understand it, in probability problems you always start with a model that describes the probability - and that model is your belief, it's not guaranteed to be a 100% description of objective reality. Then probability theory gives you powerful and objective tools that you can apply to the model and come up with predictions. But again, it's about applying "objective" tools/rules to a personal belief/model.

Bookies have the advantage of using huge data sets to come up with the best probability model - their belief. But it's hardly a perfect model (they are happy as long as it works in the long term) and they still have to adjust the odds to balance their risk. I don't think they care whether the final odds are "objective" as long as they are guaranteed to make a profit.

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