Tennis Tips - March 4 - March 10

[CzechPunter]

@money44 I have a niche for 2-0 betting? Sorry, that's just not true - out of the 69 match bets that I've placed so far in 2019, only 3 were for straight set victories (one win, one loss, one push) .

[Grass Cash]

11 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

@money44 I have a niche for 2-0 betting? Sorry, that's just not true - out of the 69 match bets that I've placed so far in 2019, only 3 were for straight set victories (one win, one loss, one push) .

lol ok maybe i'm confused , excuse me . i was just trying to stop four leaf from doing those and losing his money... maybe its darko08 who does them all the time. 

[Grass Cash]

Tung-Lin Wu is once again a 2/1 underdog vs andujar .. I guess he gets no respect from the bookies.. The odds on this match should be close to 2.4 for Tung-Lin Wu - not 3.10 

Edited March 9, 2019 by money44

[bobix]

21 hours ago, money44 said:

 Good luck on those Bobix, my favorite play on your card is pera. I’ve taken her to win outright she looks fit

Well, Pera was serving for the first set at 5-4, then failed to close the tiebreak being 5-2 in front. Unlucky! Johnson and Voegele delivered very easy, but Young was definitely a completely wrong pick.

[bobix]

Let me give you my two cents on betting the straight set wins. As you might have noticed, I mostly play underdogs to win a set, but sometimes I also go for the 2-0. It seems to be straightforward to play the -1.5 sets handicap, or 2-0 correct score, but you should take the time and check the odds for the "Under 2.5 sets" market as well. Not so often, but sometimes the odds are very much the same, or at least there is not such a big gap between them. Therefore in case of a complete burnout you are also covered by the underdog winning in straight sets. No offense, just advice!

[Grass Cash]

Pera dissapointed me a bit taking the lead so early @bobix - I have taken a few punts on another shorter left handed player tomorrow ... MIsaki Doi seems to be in form .. no idea what kind of chance she has vs Pliskova but the odds are appealing to me, and the line seems fair. 

[Grass Cash]

@bobix Mayer has good results in this tournament.. the conditions suit him well. This is my best pick for tomorrow 

[bobix]

1 hour ago, money44 said:

@bobix Mayer has good results in this tournament.. the conditions suit him well. This is my best pick for tomorrow 

I was also looking at Mayer for my usual set handicap, but I'm not completely sure about it. At the moment a much more favored pick for myself is Ramos-Vinolas.

[darko08]

@money44Well probably i have to take more risks but in other way. A lot of times i take the underdog but with some kind of handicap to take less risks. For example i take Flipkens to win at least one set against Genie when probably i should take her to win the match at odds around 3.00. I did the same with Pegula against Zarina and she won her 6-1, 6-1.. when she was paid also with odds around 3.00. I have take a couple of pure hardcourt players who played against claycourters who were "tired" and without adaptation to the conditions here but surprisingly they have win. I was thinking to bet Andreescu to win 2-0 also but finally i didn't and that was another bad decision (that was paid around 2.5 and were a lot of reasons to think that Andreescu would destroy Cibulkova and finally she did). So what's happening to me these days is that im taking a lot of bad decisions, anyway, you're right about what you're saying, a lot of times the best decision is taking the underdog because this is a sport where anybody can beat anybody but i think that betting 2-0 sometimes is not bad.

[Grass Cash]

Darko .. I would love to hear all your thoughts on the next days matches.. There is many underdogs that I like a lot .. This is definitely a time to find say 4 of themand flat all of them .. you could even flat stake 8 of them or a simpler way is to find your best two , and flat stake moneyline on both .. This is very effective for profit .. 

All you have to do is win one of your picks, and you win very nice results.. there is also chance you can win both picks easily ... This is for experienced bettors who are able to strike winning underdog picks often.. I'm sure all you guys are capable of it .. But you can look at Czech Punter for example... Years of experience betting tennis.. smart guy .. but he executes his own strategy which is very conservative .. 

This helps control his bankroll , and its not a volatile way of gambling .. just controlled investing.. So I respect in complete the way he operates , but maybe he is still adapting his betting strategy, and can incorporate more profitable picks also or he bets those but doesn't post them here lol. 

@darko08 So list all your best underdog possibilities for the next 2 days, and I will rank them in order from 1-20 or 1-10 or 1-5 .. however many you decide to do... I will rank them purely value based .. not the chances that you win on them. 

I have done this type of value betting underdog system before with a tennis writer from Czech Republic,. I've lost touch with that person, but we had some interesting results .. I have been improving on that system for about 5+ years, and expect to see some interesting profit here soon .. 

Edited March 9, 2019 by money44

[Grass Cash]

The bets also don't have to be ranked .. its just good to pick the players you think will win sometimes, and not concern yourself with the odds.. Then after you have decided who you think will advance.. You can analyze the value and risk behind the bets... i'm still working on that aspect of the system.  Plays a crucial role in success

Edited March 9, 2019 by money44

[Lorenzi Musetti]

Mayer played very well against Opelka, who got a bad day for first serve. Players like Opelka needs her serve to win those matches. Reilly cant win matches with just 62% of first serves in and just 48% second serves won. conditions like slow court and strong wind can be good for Mayer but Monfils is on fire. Maybe a Games-HC on Mayer is good here.

[Grass Cash]

53-126 +68.71 units (updated results)

[Grass Cash]

also Darko .. I don't think you can take flipkens to win that match outright vs Bouchard .. That was a very surprising result , but it's good that you can see that happening.. I have not followed flipkens recently or bet on her many times.. just once or twice I won with her. 

[darko08]

Kaia Kanepi vs Julia Gorges. Bad luck for Julia, this is not a good opponent for a first round. Kaia has already 1 win here against Larsson (6-2, 6-2) and the conditions are good for her.

Mona Barthel vs Madison Keys

This will be the first match for Keys since the Fed Cup. The last 3 years here she has lost in her first match and she never has win more than 1 match in any of her 6 participations here.

2018: Lost in her first match against Collins (6-3, 7-6)

2017: Lost in her first match against Duque Mariño (6-1, 7-5)

2016: Lost in her first match against Gibbs (6-3, 6-3)

I don’t like so much Barthel but she has already one win here against Lin Zhu and the results show us that Keys doesn’t like the conditions here (the courts are slow).

@money44 I'm searching more underdogs but i have to go out for a moment, more later i will put more underdogs. Give your opinions about them.

[Grass Cash]

I've already taken Barthel.. I think its a closer match than the odds suggest. Its not my favorite pick i have ; but it might be one of the best ... She's getting ridiculous odds to win the match.. Barthel hasn't had good results for awhile , and Keys is overpriced because of her talent.. Obviously there is some risk if she struggles to win against Lin Zhu.. But it could be a warm up match for a complete destruction of Keys. I would really like to do this more often if we can get some more cooperation, and I am happy to do these rankings anytime... Now I mentioned value and I said that I wouldn't take that in mind best I could.. I believe the chances of Barthel winning are 35% or more, and the chances of Kanepi winning is 25%

so I would go like this Ranked

1. Barthel 2. Kanepi

Edited March 9, 2019 by money44

[CzechPunter]

I was thinking about some favourites doubles, but I just can't find anything that I wouldn't mind risking. Schwartzman would be pretty safe under normal conditions, but what I saw from him against Cuevas and Cecchinato some weeks ago was so bad that I don't know what's going on with him. Going to stay with just Kvitova tonight and this for tomorrow.

Rafael Nadal (-5.5) to beat Jared Donaldson at 1.86 with Pinnacle

Now Nadal did lose against Kyrgios, but I'm sure that the loss will stir some anger in him and that he will want to hit out in style, especially against an opponent that can't really hurt him in the state he's in at the moment. And, since the Indian Wells conditions are slow enough, Nadal should get plenty of chances for breaks. He beat Zverev 6-3 6-3 in Acapulco and this should, in theory, be slightly easy, so I'll take the 5.5 line here. Not the most comfortable line for men's best-of-three matches, but Donaldson doesn't seem ready to take on a top player.

[Grass Cash]

I hope you're right about that pick

[CzechPunter]

I have almost the same hopes for almost every single pick, I don't seem to be having any flashes from the future that would allow me to identify which pick I'm going to be right about . Sad but true , though I obviously hope that I'm right about every pick.

[Grass Cash]

Evgeny Karlovskiy to beat Enrique Lopez-Perez @ 1.86 with Pinnacle - 5 units

As I've said Evgeny is in fine form, and he is crushing shots... His movement is good, and he should be able to win this match.. His form dropped a little in the last match but his opponent was hitting more aggressive. 

[darko08]

@money44 opinions about these ones:

Alja Tomjlanovic vs Sabalenka

I have take Alja as underdog a lot of times and she always have lost but by low margins. My feelings are that she will have more chances than the odds suggest again. Alja has already 1 win here against Cornet in straight sets (and that’s no easy because Cornet on slow hard courts is dangerous).

Berankis vs Struff

The odds are because Berankis is here as a LL but the difference is not as big as the odds suggests.

Klizan vs Zverev

Klizan has win the other Zverev (6-1, 6-4) in the first round. Klizan is very good but the main problem is that he is unpredictable (you never know what version he will show), but if he’s implicated he can put Zverev in troubles.

Gunneswaran vs Basilashvili

Gunneswaran has already 3 wins here and this will be the first match for Basilashvili. I like taking him as underdog because he can win against anybody if he’s accurate but at the same time he can lose against everybody if he’s not so Gunneswaran at odds around 3.50 looks not bad (but if Basilashvili plays good the whole match there will be no match).

Kohls vs Kyrgios

Kyrgios won in Acapulco so why not an early bye here against a good player like Kohls after a lot of bad words from him against Nadal and anybody who critics his manners?

Karlovic vs Coric

Ivo at these odds is always a good option because his matches are usually decided in the TB. He has already 1 win here against Ebden (7-6,7-6).

Felix Auger vs Tsitsipas

I know this looks like a bad bet considering how Tsitsipas is playing but I think Felix will have more chances than the odds suggest. One win for Felix here against Norrie (6-2, 6-3).

[Grass Cash]

I've taken a punt on Klizan out of those more than anything .. Also in the future .. You don't have to do all the writeups .. but I'm happy to read those also if you like to include it .. 

1. Klizan 2. Gunneswarn 3. Kohlschreiber 4. Berankis 5. Tomljanovic 6. Karlovic 7. Auger Alliasime

I think Klizan had a legitimate shot, and some of the other picks you listed.. However.. most of these are not the matches that I punted... 

[darko08]

@money44 your top 5 non-favorite players for today/tomorrow (ATP WTA)?¿ 

[Grass Cash]

Also for the original list adding Barthel.. I believe she would take the #1 ranking based on the analysis u described, and Keys lack of matches recently.  @darko08 .. and as mentioned before .. the odds are enormous for her to win lol 

[Grass Cash]

my top five follows and added 5 more 

1. Mayer, 2. Gavrilova 3. Jakupovic/Khromacheva 4. Ostapenko  5. Jaziri 6. Mannarino 7.  Jordan Thompson 8. Gojowcyzk 9. MIsaki Doi 10. Lopez

Of course Barthel does land on this list somewhere, and Klizan.. but second one scares me.. not sure exactly where abouts 

I also did some parlays with Alex Bolt 

parlayed Andreescu and Halep both to lose on the same ticket but its a long shot. 

[darko08]

@money44 mmh i usually like the underdogs you pick but this time i don't like some of them. 

Monfils is in the best moment of his career. Mayer did nothing remarkable in the tournaments he played in the american tour on clay (his best surface) why he should win now a player who is playing some really good tennis. I think Monfils is overrated because the odds are ridicolous but he's the right favorite. 

Jaziri looked out of form in the american tour and he will face a pusher. Simon looks the right favorite.

I can't see Doi surprising Pliskova. The last time i saw Misaki Doi was in the Fed cup when she lost against Georgina Garcia Perez. Georgina has a similar style of playing than Pliskova with one difference: Pliskova does all 10 times better than Georgina. The 3 wins here of Misaki don't impress me because all of them have been against low level players. In her previous tournament she lost against Vekic 6-0, 6-3 in Acapulco.

Vondrousova looks the right favorite to me also and later i will post a bet for her explaining the reasons why (that was a bet that i had on my mind since this morning).

Edited March 9, 2019 by darko08

[apeman666]

9 hours ago, money44 said:

Tung-Lin Wu is once again a 2/1 underdog vs andujar .. I guess he gets no respect from the bookies.. The odds on this match should be close to 2.4 for Tung-Lin Wu - not 3.10 

This is why I love this forum, finding nuggets like this. Followed him twice on the top of this. But  Serious question can he go one more time? Someone please give reason not to go again? 

[ogii55]

Mchale - Pavlyuchenkova 2.70 Pinny

Pavlyuchenkova's shape wasn't very good in her previous event. While McHale is starting to build up the momentum. She was very strong in her matches here. I expect Christina to win here.

[Grass Cash]

I like your response maybe you can rank my pics next time in the order that you see them.. I think that would be a really effective exchange for understanding the strength of some of our underdog picks

[apeman666]

1 minute ago, money44 said:

I like your response maybe you can rank my pics next time in the order that you see them.. I think that would be a really effective exchange for understanding the strength of some of our underdog picks

To be honest I hate the “value” picks on underdogs generally. If there’s some one you don’t think is going to win but there’s “value” in it I don’t get. But you nailed it with this guy cause reading your right up I believed u believed he was going to win. I love information, I don’t always follow tips. U always go with own gut. Do u think tho one more time?