Tennis Tips - March 4 - March 10

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Highly irregular week this time around, with a slow start and then the Indian Wells tournament just explodes, so there's that to look forward to!

[ogii55]

On 3/2/2019 at 8:53 AM, eros said:

Can we trust her again you think? Ty.

Sorry, just saw your post here. In fact she has some injury and played too much on singles and doubles in the last few days, so the best she did was to take a set in the semis.

 

Crespatte - DH Lee 2.90 Pinnacle

Crespatte changed the level this season. He started the season pretty well stunning a lot of guys, who are on DH Lee's level or better. Last season he played mostly on hard and won a lot of futures evens. DH Lee is pretty risky dude. He can lose from everyone. He did well last week, but have just two days to rest before traveling from Japan to China. Nice value.

 

 

 

[Lorenzi Musetti]

9 hours ago, ogii55 said:

Crespatte - DH Lee 2.90 Pinnacle

Crespatte changed the level this season. He started the season pretty well stunning a lot of guys, who are on DH Lee's level or better. Last season he played mostly on hard and won a lot of futures evens. DH Lee is pretty risky dude. He can lose from everyone. He did well last week, but have just two days to rest before traveling from Japan to China. Nice value.

 

 

 

Nice one. but it was closer than it should have been in second set because crespatte lost his drive. i cashed out in the ninth game because frenchman played complicated balls without success (like the stop on 30-15 or 30-00 maybe - same he played  as winner on the line in tiebreak by 3-3) and looked annoyed after that. 

[ogii55]

If Baptiste has lost the TB in the second, probably he would lose the match.

[Grass Cash]

Hi everyone .. Is there someone that can give me opinion on what they think about Sara Sorribes tormo as a player ? @CzechPunter @darko08 @delfino @Lorenzi Musetti @opole @four-leaf @bobix @South_African_Punter @French Punter @WinningTipster @ogii55

Thank you guys 

sorry if i missed people but want to draw some attention for opinions

Edited March 4, 2019 by money44

[CzechPunter]

I don't see her losing today. A fairly typical mid-range Spanish player, can keep the ball in play for a while, but doesn't have enough power and accuracy to take the fight to the other player. This means that she usually wins against the more average players or those who are misfiring, but loses badly against the top sort that can produce reasonable power and accuracy consistently. She's doing surprisingly well so far in 2019, but the Indian Wells courts are playing slow.

[Grass Cash]

Czech - Thank you for your response .. I think I have found my goldmine pick .. I'm going to back Lara Arraubarrena to win vs Swiatek.. I have seen some clips of Swiatek, and I'm really not very impressed with what I saw .. She also has some tape on on her ankle in melbourne... Her physical body doesn't look very fit to me even if she is a good young tennis player .. I am preparing to fire huge stake on this .. I have seen some results this year from Lara and past years @ indian wells also .. 

Let me know if this bet atleast makes sense.. I know I can always lose but looks really appetizing for me , I'd feel alot better if you atleast confirmed there is some huge value on this .. ok my friend take care. 

also , if anyone else thinks there is value on this .. that would be great .. because I've got Lara as the favorite to win this match .. the odds on pinnacle is nearly @ 4 right now 

Edited March 4, 2019 by money44

[CzechPunter]

I have to admit that I was also thinking about that match when I first saw the draw and I don't really understand why the odds are going up. I thought that 3.00 was about right with perhaps slight value on Lara, now you can get 4.00 at Bet365, so either people are just backing Swiatek on grounds of favoritism or there is something we don't know about, i.e. an injury. Swiatek has much more talent and she's even potentially a GS contender in the future, who knows, but she can clearly misfire and Lara is a player to take advantage of that. I might have an in-play punt or something and I definitely won't be putting you off that bet - unless there's something we don't know, there is value in backing Lara.

[Grass Cash]

Thanks Czech .. I actually am having second thoughts about the whole bet.. I appreciate your help .. also I believe there is some value but I'm looking for something 100%, and this doesn't feel as secure as I'd like it to be.  I am concerned there is too much support for Swiatek right now, and she really like to win this. 

[Grass Cash]

Sorribes tormo doesn't impress me at all .. I think Glushko has just a good as chance to win if not better.. This was my initial thinking.. Sorribes tormo serve is bad, and she has no results at this tournament.. She beat Tomljanovic who is capable of errors, and maybe struggled with tormo's slice shots .. then she lost to out of form radwanska in 2017 who got railed by peng in straight sets the next round. Sara has lost 4 out of the last 6 matches she's played in straight sets .. If Julia is healthy .. then she got a real chance for it 

[Grass Cash]

50-116 +73.2 units 

Bastian Malla to beat Boluda-Purkiss @ odds 1.83 with Heritage - 10 units 

 

Edited March 4, 2019 by money44
10 unit edit - 1 hour prematch

[four-leaf]

Marie Bouzkova to beat Viktorija Golubic at 2.80 with Unibet

Viktorija won the 125k IW tournament and looks to be cruising to another win in this qualifying match but the matchup doesn't seem to fit Viktorija at all. Marie is a talented 20 year old who can easily beat Viktorija just like she did in Brisbane this season.

Head to head: Marie - Viktorija

2019 Brisbane International AUS Hard Round 3 (Qualifier) Marie Bouzkova 4-6 6-1 6-2

Julia Glushko to beat Sara Sorribes Tormo at 3.90 with Unibet

Julia has beaten Sara before on hardcourt 2015 in a 125k tournament in Dalian quarterfinal 7-6 6-3 so there are warning signs here that Sara can lose again. Julia just isn't as bad as her odds suggests and the matchup probably is favorable to her.

@money44 I like Lara Arruabarena to beat Iga also but I'll be on these two underdogs only for now. We'll see later what I do with Laras match.

[four-leaf]

@CzechPunter do you know what's happening with Eleni Daniilidou? She's 36 years old now and retired in december in an ITF semifinal after showing great form winning 3 straight matches 2-0 with minimum 4 breaks win in every match. Do you think she will come back to top 200 if she is injury free or have we seen the end of her career in 2018? I hope she comes back in some way, she was ranked no.14 in 2003.

[CzechPunter]

I have no idea, but her Instagram doesn't seem to be mentioning retirement, so she might be coming back.

[ogii55]

3 hours ago, money44 said:

Hi everyone .. Is there someone that can give me opinion on what they think about Sara Sorribes tormo as a player ? @CzechPunter @darko08 @delfino @Lorenzi Musetti @opole @four-leaf @bobix @South_African_Punter @French Punter @WinningTipster @ogii55

Thank you guys 

sorry if i missed people but want to draw some attention for opinions

She has huge problems with her serve and is making a lot of DF, but she is a typical fighter. She was very close to take a set vs Golubic last week. I like to play her when she is outsider, specially when she is showing some form, taking a match or two in a tournament without making many DF and with better second serve winning % then 35.

[Grass Cash]

@ogii55 I am trying to decide if Glushko can beat her.. I think she can dump to glushko .. I know Julia had a knee brace last time at the u.s. open, and I'm not sure if she's healthy but four-leaf has already posted a tip on tormo to lose .. She's just not a very talented player.. Sometimes if she's making alot of shots but she has service problems like u said, and she doesn't really play hard court winning tennis.. I think her best shot is a slice backhand. 

[ogii55]

2 hours ago, money44 said:

@ogii55 I am trying to decide if Glushko can beat her.. I think she can dump to glushko .. I know Julia had a knee brace last time at the u.s. open, and I'm not sure if she's healthy but four-leaf has already posted a tip on tormo to lose .. She's just not a very talented player.. Sometimes if she's making alot of shots but she has service problems like u said, and she doesn't really play hard court winning tennis.. I think her best shot is a slice backhand. 

If you are not sure for some match, just skip it. This is the best way to deal with those. Search for matches that you are very confident with.

[Grass Cash]

I am going to take a look at it in play instead .. the match starts right now

[ogii55]

Bonaventure - Danilovic  2.63 at boyles

Danilovic is a bit overrated on hard. Ysaline has better serve. It's very important for Bonaventure that it won't be a hell of a heat with big humidity. She just can't play well in those conditions. 20-26 Celsius is  well for her.

[Grass Cash]

I'm on Glushko @ogii55 I didn't get the price that I wanted .. but i took glushko after she won the first 3 points of the match 

[darko08]

Sorry @money44 i have not login till now. Anybody has some thoughts about the McNally-Pliskova (the bad one) match? McNally is in a very good form, anybody think that at 1.65-1.70 has some value?

[CzechPunter]

At 2.25 I'd rather be on Pliskova personally.

[ogii55]

No play for me. I like Mcnally a lot, because she is future Top 100 for sure, but Plyskova is very experienced with big serve. Mcnally is kind of seek and destroy player. If she wins here it will be by 2:0. I was heavy on her against Golubic, but she couldn't deliver (Didn't expect Golubic to make such a strong tournament.). I expect from Mcnally to take the first set

[Grass Cash]

Atp Challenger Santiago 

51-116 +81.5 units

All 10 unit bets with Pinnacle

Joao Souza to beat Arguello @ 3.43

Bastian Malla to beat Bagnis @ 3.61

Juan Pablo Varillas to beat Monteiro @ 4.39

Andrea Collarini to beat Giannessi @ 2.89 

I will write more analysis if my picks start winning, and there is also less picks. This is a very strong lineup for me, Good luck to all loungers in the tennis spot. 

[Hermes]

Looking at the qualifiers I think P. Gunnerswan is a top 5 challenger player for a while now and he had a descent showing against Tiafoe who had a good AO run.I think there's value against J.Jung the last time they met Gunnerswan bottled it and technically could have gone either way.The bets are looking tasty.

I also expect R. Berankis and R.Albot to have relatively easier times going on form.Thoughts? @CzechPunter @South_African_Punter

[South_African_Punter]

Yes, Albot is looking really solid at the moment (won Del Ray Beach) and is playing a challenger-level player, so I can't foresee an upset there. Berankis always makes me a bit nervous as he is somewhat of an "up and down" player (related to fitness & injury issues), but seeing his opponent's very bad form, I'd also take him.

I don't have an opinion on Gunnerswan/Jung. 

Edited March 5, 2019 by South_African_Punter

[CzechPunter]

I don't really agree with the first tip, Jung has been in a better form than Gunneswaran recently, so the odds look alright to me really. I do agree with the other two and I'll be going for two picks today.

Berankis (vs. Uchiyama) + Albot (vs. Krueger) at 2.04 with Pinnacle

Should be too strong honestly, I think @Hermes is pointing things out correctly here. The underdogs might be inspired, but the quality of Berankis and Albot should show eventually.

Thomas Fabbiano to beat Marcos Giron at 1.63 with Pinnacle

The conditions in Indian Wells are reasonably slow and that should suit Fabbiano, who's also been in nice form recently, almost beating Verdasco in Dubai after beating two players that I'd rate slightly above Giron.

[four-leaf]

I think Elias Ymer looks undervalued, he's playing Darian King. The thing that makes Darian the favored player there is the bad form of Elias and that he's coming from clay but I think Elias has more experience in qualies than Darian does and Darian loses often to players higher ranked than himself. He beat Elias 2-0 in Delray Beach qualies 2017 but Elias gained some revenge in Aussie open last year winning in straight sets himself.

 

But I don't want to risk anything now since everything in the IW qualies either has bad value or looks like a toss up to me.

[DrO]

Alexei Popiryn (-3.5) to beat Jozef Kovalik @1.65 local bookie

Decent odds on Popiryn here. Alexei is playing good tennis from the beginning of the season,while Kovalik haven't play a single match since USO last year. Also,i think Kovalik is more a clay court "specialist".