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2019 Winter Derby / Kempton Grade 3 Chase - Tips & Trends

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Two big betting races at the weekend 

On the flat we have the Winter Derby and over sticks at Kempton we have a Grade 3 Handicap Chase

3.35 Kempton:
3m 
888Sport Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Previous Winners

Screen Shot 2019-02-20 at 09.02.07.png

9/10 Aged 9 or less
8/10 Carried 11st 5 or less
7/10 Rated 145 or less
7/10 ran within 2 months
19/21 Placed last time out (11 won)
18/21 Ran at least 3 times this season
16/21 First 4 in betting

_____________________________________________________

3.15 Lingfield:

1m2f Betway Winter Derby Stakes (Group 3) (All-Weather Championships Fast-Track Qualifier) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Previous Winners

Screen Shot 2019-02-20 at 09.08.16.png

8/10 Rated 106+
7/10 Drawn 7 or higher
11/21 Won last time out
18/21 Aged 6 or less
13/21 First 3 in the betting
15/21 Won at this trip
16/21 No more than 3 runs this season

 

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Selections

Lingfield Winter Derby

8/10 Rated 106+
We lose Pactolus, Court House, Chiefofchiefs


11/21 Won last time out
We lose Big Country


18/21 Aged 6 or less
We lose Hathal, Master The World

Selection: 
Wissahickon 4/11 Betfred

_________________________________________

Kempton

8/10 Carried 11st 5 or less
We lose Double Shuffle, Adrien Du Pont, Modus, Rather Be


16/21 First 4 in betting
We lose Romain De Senam, Walt, Catamaran De Seuil, Didero Vallis

All other trends qualify

Glen Rocco is a CD winner so is the selection

Selection:
Glen Rocco 7/2 Coral

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888 sport 

Have 3 almost joint rated horses at the top .....talkischeap who ran a cracker last time ......double shuffle who has a lot of weight but winners have come from 154 in past ...classy ....and romain de senam who ran a very decent time last time off 11 -10 and now carrys 10-7 so needs respecting at big price for Nichols ......cant split them however I try so I'll have all 3 

Talkischeap 4pts win 11/2

Double shuffle3 pts win 8/1 

Romain de senam 3pts win 14/1 

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3.35 – 888Sport Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ITV4
14/16 – Rated 139 or higher   (7,8,9,10)
14/16 – Finished in the top 5 last time out   
13/16 – Aged 9 or younger
12/16 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks   (1,2,4)
11/16 – Won a class 2 chase or better before   (5,6)

2 Pts EW Modus @ 11\1 Bet365 1/4 1-3

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On 21/02/2019 at 4:49 PM, richard-westwood said:

888 sport 

Have 3 almost joint rated horses at the top .....talkischeap who ran a cracker last time ......double shuffle who has a lot of weight but winners have come from 154 in past ...classy ....and romain de senam who ran a very decent time last time off 11 -10 and now carrys 10-7 so needs respecting at big price for Nichols ......cant split them however I try so I'll have all 3 

Talkischeap 4pts win 11/2

Double shuffle3 pts win 8/1 

Romain de senam 3pts win 14/1 

2nd 4th 5th...bummer

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