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opole

UFC : 2019

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Francis Ngannou @ 2.65 5dimes 7/10

Do me a fkn favour!!! What the heck is going on here? There is no way on gods green earth that Cain Velasquez is the favorite vs. Francis Ngannou tomorrow. All the UFC hipsters are taking Velasquez because he is an ATG and a huge draw in the game but let's face the truth...this guy is shot to pieces. No way he gonna beat that beast Ngannou this night. Ngannou fought three times in 2018 and faced elite opposition: Heavy handed guys like Miocic and Lewis and he wasn't stopped. His chin is good enough to take some heavy blows. Velasquez is 36 years old, he fought only twice in the last five and a half years. He wasn't allowed to fight two or three years ago because of health issues. Ngannou will make it short here, expect the same outcome as vs. Overeem here.

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Impressive call but like you say not that surprising , I did expect a bit of a fight from Cain and looks like that could be last we see of him , I'm actually very intrigued by a DC vs Ngannou match up can DC close the gap and take him down before being put to sleep i'd be interested to see the line on that. 

Any thought on the card in Prague tomorrow nice early one for viewing here in UK

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Walt Harris @1.63 5dimes 10/10

Joke odds on Harris. Should be 1.3 or even less. Harris will destroy Spivak tomorrow, i guarantee you that. Spivak out of shape, totally soft and simply one or two classes below Harris. Fought some old guys in Russia, his UFC debut will expose him as what he is....not quality level fighter. Harris will eat him alive, he might hurt him badly here.

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Arjan Bhullar @2.20 Pinnacle 4/10

Bhullar is an Olympian freestyle Wrestler. He developed good striking aswell. He only lost to Wieczorek via omoplata sub, great finish but very, very unlucky for Bhullar and to be fair Adams isn't really a BJJ guy...Adams has Division 1 Wrestling background so he's okay but still class below Bhullar and imo Wrestler beats striker. I like him as an slight underdog to "upset" Adams with his wrestling skills.

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Arjan Bhullar @2.20 Pinnacle 4/10

Bhullar is an Olympian freestyle Wrestler. He developed good striking aswell. He only lost to Wieczorek via omoplata sub, great finish but very, very unlucky for Bhullar and to be fair Adams isn't really a BJJ guy...Adams has Division 1 Wrestling background so he's okay but still class below Bhullar and imo Wrestler beats striker. I like him as an slight underdog to "upset" Adams with his wrestling skills.

bhullar wins an unanimous decision with 2x 29-28 and 30-27. 29-28 was good score, 30-27 a bit harsh, i think adams won the second round. but a win is a win!!

Edited by opole

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Walt Harris @1.63 5dimes 10/10

Joke odds on Harris. Should be 1.3 or even less. Harris will destroy Spivak tomorrow, i guarantee you that. Spivak out of shape, totally soft and simply one or two classes below Harris. Fought some old guys in Russia, his UFC debut will expose him as what he is....not quality level fighter. Harris will eat him alive, he might hurt him badly here.

easy harris stopped him after 50 secs of round 1, there were 2 or 3 classes between them lol....i had small side bet on KO aswell and it cashed but i think going with BIG stake on the ML was the right move in the first place

this was first grade gift from the books. 

Edited by opole

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UFC 238

Blagoy Ivanov @2.30 5dimes 4/10

I really like Ivanov as an underdog here. He's allrounder with good grappling & wrestling skills but can also fight on his feet as he's very good boxer aswell. One of the things i like about him is he's improving from fight to fight. I and expect another step-up from him. Tuivasa is one-dimensional brawler who is nice to watch but he's not versatile enough to handle a guy like Ivanov in my opinion. I doubt Tuivasa can knock him out and if it goes to decision i think Ivanov will have the upper hand. Tuivasa also having a questionable gas tank. I think Ivanov should be the favorite. So we have good value on him.

 

 

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20 hours ago, opole said:

UFC 238

Blagoy Ivanov @2.30 5dimes 4/10

I really like Ivanov as an underdog here. He's allrounder with good grappling & wrestling skills but can also fight on his feet as he's very good boxer aswell. One of the things i like about him is he's improving from fight to fight. I and expect another step-up from him. Tuivasa is one-dimensional brawler who is nice to watch but he's not versatile enough to handle a guy like Ivanov in my opinion. I doubt Tuivasa can knock him out and if it goes to decision i think Ivanov will have the upper hand. Tuivasa also having a questionable gas tank. I think Ivanov should be the favorite. So we have good value on him.

 

 

Thank you, sir! Another great call! 👏 👏 👏

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Dana White's Contender Series 17

Bill Algeo @2.90 Betonline 3/10

This should be a pick em' fight. Algeo is one of the best prospects in Pennsylvania. He's a very good striker with vicious kicks, also very good on the ground with nice submission skills. He developed very well in the last few years. Both having very good resumes considering the level they were fighting on. I like my action on Bill Algeo as the sizeable underdog.

 

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UFC ON ESPN 3

Junior Albini @2.10 William Hill 7/10

I really fancy Albini over Greene here. Greene hasn't fought anyone of notice yet and still he had two close fights with Jeff Hughes who is probably one level below Albini. Greene lost the first fight vs. Hughes and won the second via split decision,, it was really close and it shows the current level of Greene who is simply a tall tuff dude but not even that powerful for a Heavyweight. I absolutely don't rate him in any kind. I think main reason why Albini is the dog here is that he lost his last three fights but those opponents were not bad at all although Oleynik and Arlovski are both old and probably shot. Arlovski is still one of those guys who can expose prospects as not that good and he exactly did it with Albini who isn't a huge prospect on his own but still in my opinion one class above his opponent. The other guy who stopped Albini was a big dude from Suriname with crazy power who just ko'd a guy within 9 seconds at the weekend at UFC Greenville. I love the Albini play here and i think it's wise to take the bet right now as odds are dropping fast and heavy.

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Alonzo Menifield x Jordan Griffin => @1.68 Intertops 8/10

Be careful with Griffin. You need to pick him vs. Vince Murdock as the fight vs. veteran Chas Skelly was cancelled.

I really think there is no real path to victory for both Craig and Murdock.

Menifield is one of the biggest prospects right now. He's very quick and has great striking game, very explosive. I think they're bringing Craig in because Menifield should deal with him pretty easily and brutally. Menifield has great TDD and should easily avoid the ground. On their feet i expect Menifield to crush Craig brutally. There are probably two levels between them in the stand up. 

Griffin should deal with his late notice opponent aswell. Griffin is a good striker and grappler, throws great combinations in the pocket but also has some good judgement of distance. Murdock is pretty poor imo. I think Griffin shouldn't have any problems and will probably score a stoppage here.

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I don't have much time to write long time analysis for this card but my picks are:

Amanda Nunes wins by decision 3.50 Intertops 4/10

Panni Kianzad wins by decision 3.40 William Hill 4/10

Jorge Masvidal wins by decision 9.00 Bet365 2/10

I think Holm will survive here but i don't see her doing any damage because i think she's simply too old and too slow to land big in the pocket. Nunes might want to brawl with her and Holm will probably stay at the outside. Expect a boring fight here. Nunes should get the decision in the end.

Kianzad is better & sharper striker imo, more accurate aswell. She has very good lead left hand and if she decides to throw the right a bit more often then i expect her to outscore Avila.

Masvidal should be a very living dog here today vs. Askren who was beaten up badly by Lawler last fight. The stoppage for Askren there was BS, Lawler wasn't out. Askren is simply a terrible stand up fighter and i don't see him going anywhere with this. Even guys like Khabib or Usman having some decent striking skills while Askren has absolutely NOTHING to offer. I thinkt his is stop point, Askren will lose his 0 here. But Askren probably has very good chin as he took MASSIVE damage in his career sometimes and still wasn't hurt or rocked so i think Masvidal dec is better than Masvidal ML.

I also think there is decent value on Diego Sanchez to beat Chiesa. But i pass on Sanchez as i think his chin might be wrong but odds around 4.20 are simpy stupid. If Diego has a good night, he can blast Chiesa out and i think Chiesa is somehow a bit of a quitter if he's hurt. He doesn't like to get hit and Sanchez is very good allrounder with decent striking, wrestling and especially decent grappling. I doubt Chiesa will sub him here, Chiesa path to victory is imo a decision. But we'll see. Too many questionmarks about Sanchez here although i am really tempted by his odds.

Edited by opole

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Avila vs Kianzad Fight goes to decision - 2/3 Skybet  (7pts) 
Rencountre via Stoppage - 10/1 Bet365 (1pt) 
Shahbazyan via Stoppage - 13/10 Betway  (4pts) 
Perez to win -  9/5 William Hill (2pts) 
Gadelha to win - 2/5 Bet 365  (5pts)
Chiesa via Submission - 21/4 Coral (3pts) 
Rockhold vs Blachowicz Doesn't go to decision - 2/3 Coral (3pts)
Askren via Stoppage - 19/5 Marathon Bet (4pts) 
Nunes via KO/TKO or DQ - 6/4 Betfair (3pts)
Jones via Stoppage - 5/11 Marathon Bet (3pts)


The No Bet Fights : 
 
I expect Arnold Allen to Win but -300 line isn't for me. 
Also Vera at -400 I believe his opponent is better than these odds but I'm opting out.    

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