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sfarad

HELP with the maths - Lay Away team sequence

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Hi guys,

I am struggling with the maths to build a strategy of the following specs:

1) Pick 15 specific matches every week. The odds usually are from 2.00 - 3.5 for the away team  

2) Lay the away team.

Now, with my historic data of 3 years the highest number of matches in which the away teams won was  8 out of the 15. Normally it's 3-7 away wins out of the 15. THIS IS why I want this to happen.

Here comes the problem. I am thinking of building a progressive strategy in which in case I lose a match, I double or bet 1.5x  BUT the 15 games I pick do not occur in a sequence. Normally 3-4 matches occur at the same time... So I could have 4-5 groups of matches until the 15th game is over.

Is there any possible way to build a strategy to succeed with this strategy? 

 

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:welcome to PL @sfarad  :ok 

This is effectively a martingale system and is doomed to failure long term. Doubling up on expectancy is a long term loser. Classic examples of this are when people see 5 or 6 reds on the bounce and bet black in casinos. I once saw 23 reds on the bounce and the double up bet from 6 to 23 starting at £10 is around £500k.

You will win with martingale for a bit, but when you lose, you'll lose everything you gained previously because the multiple bet becomes so big - bigger than your bank. :sad 
 

 

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Hi Sir Puntalot,

I know the risks of martingale.

I am asking about maths. Hypotheticly if the maximum of "losses" I have throughot the 15 games, is maximum 8 losses. Is there any strategy I can use to make this work? The thing I am struggling with is that the matches occur 3-4 games in parrallel. If this was game after a game, I would use martingale without a doubt. 

This is what I need help with.

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I am not sure I understood correctly.

 You will pick every week 15 games (probably not random but based on some strategy) and based on your back testing (3 years) you noticed that happened 3-7 away team to win. You would be happy to play a martingale but your problem is that there may be 4 games on the same moment? Is that right?

 

Regarding your question I think you have no other option but to number the games 1,2,3,4 then consider all the previous games have been lost. (will lay no 4 as you have already lost 1-3).

If you will lose all will continue as usual with no.5. If you win no3 for example and lost 4,will continue with no 5 as the new number 2 (with the difference that the stake will be bigger)

I am sure that you have already thought on it.

 

On the other hand, you probably know what the risks are. And probably know that math is against you and is almost impossible to win against math.

If you play odds 2.00 – 3.5  that means that the probability for away  win would be around 30% – 50% in a single game and you assume that cannot happens (or will happen on other life)  more than 8 games in a row.

The bad news is that in every game, even on game no.9, the players have no idea you play martingale and their chance to win is 30%-50% like in the game no.1 . The difference is that you will play a huge stake.  Do the math.

More than that even if we assume, by absurd,  there are some calculations that show us that away team will not win 8 in a row (or with an extremely low probability) , these are available for an infinite number of games. Unfortunately your 15 Games may happen to be won all by away teams very often.

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On 18.2.2019 at 9:15 AM, giraldi said:

I am not sure I understood correctly.

 You will pick every week 15 games (probably not random but based on some strategy) and based on your back testing (3 years) you noticed that happened 3-7 away team to win. You would be happy to play a martingale but your problem is that there may be 4 games on the same moment? Is that right?

 

 

Regarding your question I think you have no other option but to number the games 1,2,3,4 then consider all the previous games have been lost. (will lay no 4 as you have already lost 1-3).

If you will lose all will continue as usual with no.5. If you win no3 for example and lost 4,will continue with no 5 as the new number 2 (with the difference that the stake will be bigger)

I am sure that you have already thought on it.

 

 

On the other hand, you probably know what the risks are. And probably know that math is against you and is almost impossible to win against math.

If you play odds 2.00 – 3.5  that means that the probability for away  win would be around 30% – 50% in a single game and you assume that cannot happens (or will happen on other life)  more than 8 games in a row.

The bad news is that in every game, even on game no.9, the players have no idea you play martingale and their chance to win is 30%-50% like in the game no.1 . The difference is that you will play a huge stake.  Do the math.

More than that even if we assume, by absurd,  there are some calculations that show us that away team will not win 8 in a row (or with an extremely low probability) , these are available for an infinite number of games. Unfortunately your 15 Games may happen to be won all by away teams very often.

Dear Giraldi,

I understand the risks of martingale. And I am fully confident of this system results that, although anything is possible, I assume the risks of not exceeding 8 losses in 15/16 games.

I am attaching you an example of ACTUAL results where 8 losses were hit.

See how I divided the games into 7 groups, each group means that the games in the group start at the same time.

IS THERE ANY WAY to use martingale with this system? I just don't know how to spread the money throughout groups and what to do in case of AWAY win (loss).

Please take a look at the spreadsheet attached and let me know.,

Capture.JPG

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5 hours ago, sfarad said:

Dear Giraldi,

I understand the risks of martingale. And I am fully confident of this system results that, although anything is possible, I assume the risks of not exceeding 8 losses in 15/16 games.

I am attaching you an example of ACTUAL results where 8 losses were hit.

See how I divided the games into 7 groups, each group means that the games in the group start at the same time.

IS THERE ANY WAY to use martingale with this system? I just don't know how to spread the money throughout groups and what to do in case of AWAY win (loss).

Please take a look at the spreadsheet attached and let me know.,

Capture.JPG

dude, one simple formula to calculate the probability of a win or losing streak:

(1/P)^a

P - your loss probability, a- your number of bets lost (streak).

No idea what your odds are, let's say 3? Look at this table, it is really eye opening -

 

image.png.73bb71980957d116d0e5cbc15b9efd3f.pngWinning and Losing Sequences Calculations

 

(copyright soccerwidow) - so think about how long you want to stay in the betting game... with odds of 3 you will hit 10 losses in a row every 35 bets statistically..

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Hi there liero,

I am not asking regarding the probability to lose or win. This has nothing to do with my request.

If you can, please read carefully my question and if you can answer the question....

 

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