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On 4/27/2019 at 11:14 PM, Escaping Captivity said:

In comparison I spend about the same amount of money for the service I use and that includes the downloading of spreadsheets with all the days runners and an whole array of info to boot.

As for recording one's bets, I find a spreadsheet to be perfectly feasible and it only takes a few minutes to input the data.

I use a spreadsheet to produce my bets so it's quite an easy task to add the results to this.

Out of interest what service do you use to get the data for the days runners etc.

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7 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I use a spreadsheet to produce my bets so it's quite an easy task to add the results to this.

Out of interest what service do you use to get the data for the days runners etc.

Horse Race Base.

I pay the old rate of £10 p/m due to being a member for a number of years. I think for new members its £15 p/m now. The free trial of three days should still be available though.

There are several downloadable spreadsheets and the best one in my opinion is under the heading "My Report". This is where you can choose over 100 different pieces of info to add to the spreadsheet including the basic stuff associated with a standard racecard like days since run, official rating, headgear etc.

Plus.....

Win & place % - over a horse's career, distance, course, class, going, direction, surface, month, CD etc. Jockey & trainer stats over different increments, various info about the horse's last three races, miles travelled, lengths beaten in last race, a number of different ratings etc.

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Thanks. I did have a look at this but I was also after historical data to do some testing and I don't think this was available. I ended up using DATAFORM for the historical data but it is quite expensive (about £10 per week).

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7 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Thanks. I did have a look at this but I was also after historical data to do some testing and I don't think this was available. I ended up using DATAFORM for the historical data but it is quite expensive (about £10 per week).

The system builder on there will generate systems for you based on historic data. There's also an option called Stat Attack Extra Archive where you can download or read info off the screen for every race in the past few months. The info available in this particular section is centred around the win and place percentage for going, distance, course etc.

Like I stated previously, you should have a 3 day free trial with no obligation to  sign up. 

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On 4/27/2019 at 11:34 PM, Escaping Captivity said:

How many bets is that over and what are your average odds roughly?

I've only created one system in fourteen years that has surpassed 100% ROI over a month before (215 bets approx.). I began "paper trading" with this particular system six weeks ago in the second week of March. For the first fortnight the average losing run was 1.23. This week has been awful though and has included an 18 long losing streak and the past four days have all churned out negative profit. Because it's still early days and the ROI% exceeded 100 I kinda expected a downturn in results somewhat but not to the extent of 18 losers on the trot. That got me really pissed.

Over last 9 months my system has given me 429 winners and 153 losing bets. This gives me an expected value (probabilty) of 73% (odds of 1.35) the average odds of my winning bets are 1.62 . This gives me an edge of over 11% on the bets i make . As long as i always make bets over 1.35 I am making a value bet.

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1 hour ago, Fazman said:

Over last 9 months my system has given me 429 winners and 153 losing bets. This gives me an expected value (probabilty) of 73% (odds of 1.35) the average odds of my winning bets are 1.62 . This gives me an edge of over 11% on the bets i make . As long as i always make bets over 1.35 I am making a value bet.

Thanks but you're not going to get over 100% ROI when your average winning bets are 1.62. You've miscalculated. In comparison that 100%+ system of mine I mentioned, my average winning bet was over 5.00.

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On 5/7/2019 at 11:26 AM, Escaping Captivity said:

Thanks but you're not going to get over 100% ROI when your average winning bets are 1.62. You've miscalculated. In comparison that 100%+ system of mine I mentioned, my average winning bet was over 5.00.

In 9 months from £200 starting bankroll making £10 bets 5% of bankroll per bet , i have made £1100 profit 

that is a way over 100% Return on my initial investment .

but if you are talking about total amount staked to returns then yes it is only approx 20% ROI

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2 hours ago, Fazman said:

In 9 months from £200 starting bankroll making £10 bets 5% of bankroll per bet , i have made £1100 profit 

that is a way over 100% Return on my initial investment .

but if you are talking about total amount staked to returns then yes it is only approx 20% ROI

Yep, I was referring to your last point - but 20% ROI at a strike rate of around 70%....um...that may not be the best system in the world but at those prices it has to be one of the best odds-on systems most definitely. The balance of ROI and S/R is superb. A 20% system with that consistency is like a finely tuned engine. Nice one, Fazman.

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