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harry_rag

Six Nations 2019

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Not too much activity on the thread for last year's comp but thought I'd post my early thoughts rather than keep them to myself. Would welcome any views on the following (especially re drop goals) or any other aspects of the tournament.

1: Outright market: Best prices are as follows with the "true" odds based on the Rugby Vision ratings in brackets.

Ireland 5/6 (11/10)
England 4/1 (12/5)
Wales 11/2 (11/2)
Scotland 18/1 (17/1)
France 22/1 (55/1)
Italy 1500/1 (>1000/1)

Ireland clear favourites, but a suggestion that they are a little too short. If you agree, I saw 11/10 "the field" with one firm or you could obviously lay Ireland. The RV ratings may flatter England suggesting they should be that short but there might be a case for backing them at 4/1 or better. The only bet I've had so far is to take 13/2 for Wales (Lads were 6/1 when I first looked and I was able to apply a price boost). Wales are actually above England in the World Rankings and, although they have 3 away games this year, they do host both Ireland and England.

Nothing particularly floats my boat on the spreads outright but I'd buy Wales at 25 if you gave me a free bet to use (pays 60-40-20-10-5-0 for 1st to 6th places).

I could've make a case for 5/6 no Grand Slam and 7/4 no Triple Crown but I'm not inclined to bet in either market and both have shortened slightly now.

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2: Total Kicking Metres

I've sold total kicking metres at 3,800 with SX (to very cautious stakes). That's the total distance of all successful kicks at goal.

Made up at 3,308 last year from 116 kicks (average distance 28.52 metres).

In the previous 5 tournaments the total kicks have been 126, 130, 132, 115 and 126, making the 6 year average 124.17.

28.52 times the average number of kicks gives 3,541 and times the highest total = 3,765.

Hopefully more upside than downside from a sell.

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3: Drop Goals

I'd really welcome any informed opinion on this subject.

The spreads say 2.5-3 while the fixed odds betting is all over the place to the extent that there's value to be had one way or the other, if not both! The average for the last 6 tournaments is 2.33 (2-2-1-3-3-3 from latest to oldest).

On the basis of drop goals seem to be falling out of favour I'm inclined to take the best looking price for an unders line. Given that all of the prices could be argued to be value, which betting option instinctively makes most appeal:

>2.5 drop goals at odds against

<2.5 drop goals at odds against

>1.5 at a shade of odds on

Over the last 2 years, the 6 Nations teams have all played 22 or 23 matches and have scored 8 drop goals between them, 2 each for England, Ireland, France and Italy.

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4: Opening Fixtures

France v Wales - my gut feel handicap was Wales by 3, the RV ratings favour them by 2. The markets, however, very narrowly favour France. Not much edge to be had but Wales at 11/10 to win or 15/8 to win by 1-12 points would be my idea of the best bets.

Scotland v Italy - I had Scotland by 21 but RV go +27. The markets agree with them as the spreads go 24-27 and the fixed odds handicaps are 24 or 25 points. The bets I'll be looking out for when prices are up are an angle for Italy to score more points or tries than expected.

Ireland v England - I went for Ireland by 12 but RV and the markets say 8 or 9. Nothing appeals yet from a betting perspective but worth noting that some rankings have Ireland edging out NZ for top spot!

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Re drop goals, after much deliberation I've been converted to the side of overs. A lot of opinion seems to be weighted towards some tight games that might see a dearth of tries and towards the concept of teams pretty much looking to practice drop goals in the run up to a World Cup.

Here the the key prices should anyone want a bet of any sort.

<2.5 drop goals is 11/10 with Tote/Fred
>1.5 drop goals is 8/11 with Lads
Exactly 3 drop goals is 4/1 with Lads/Sportingbet
4+ drop goals is 5/1 with Lads/Sportingbet

The bet I recommend is dutching the exactly 3 and 4+ to get 2.73 for >2.5 drop goals. You can tease this upwards a bit if you can use a priceboost with Lads.

I took the stats back 8 years to cover the last 2 World Cup years and the totals are as follows with the World Cup years highlighted:

2-2-1-3-3-3-3-5

Overall stats suggest it's a great price, last 3 renewals are a concern but the general consensus re tighter games and World Cup year allay the worries to an extent.

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England out to 9/2 with Hills so big enough for me to back them; that leaves me opposing Ireland with England and Wales, the next two in the betting.

Hills doing an offer of stake £20 on top tryscorer (win or £10 e/w) and get a free fiver bet every time they score a try. I've done Seymour at 20/1. There are stronger selections but Hills are notably shorter about them and he starts against Italy tomorrow.

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For tonight's opening game I've bought Wales hotshots at 16 with Spreadex (25 points per Adams, J.Davies, North, L.Williams try)

That looks a couple of points light to me and will show a 9 point profit if they manage just a single try between them. In what's expected to be a close and low scoring game I'm happy with that as a value interest bet.

I could make a case for North anytime at 4/1 with the same firm but, as he's in the hotshots anyway I may swerve a single on that.

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Ireland/England: Buy Ireland hotshots at 24 with SPIN (Stockdale, Ringrose, Earls, Henshaw)

4 points higher elsewhere, I think that's a more accurate price. Having looked at the player stats (especially Stockdale, obviously) I'm happy buying these 4 where there's even a single point profit to be had if they only score one try between them.

Nothing on Scotland/Italy yet but still leaning towards some sort of bet on Italy points or tries.

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6 hours ago, harry_rag said:

For tonight's opening game I've bought Wales hotshots at 16 with Spreadex (25 points per Adams, J.Davies, North, L.Williams try)

That looks a couple of points light to me and will show a 9 point profit if they manage just a single try between them. In what's expected to be a close and low scoring game I'm happy with that as a value interest bet.

I could make a case for North anytime at 4/1 with the same firm but, as he's in the hotshots anyway I may swerve a single on that.

:ok Hotshots make up at 50, both tries for North so shame I swerved him at 4/1. Called the game correctly in terms of Wales win by 1 to 12 points though didn't look likely at half time. Didn't back that due to the outright bet on Wales which obviously looks in better shape after the comeback. 

1 drop goal on the board and kicking metres made up at 168 which I'd take every game.

All in all an enjoyable game that went ok from a betting perspective.

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On 1/30/2019 at 12:44 PM, harry_rag said:

Scotland v Italy - I had Scotland by 21 but RV go +27. The markets agree with them as the spreads go 24-27 and the fixed odds handicaps are 24 or 25 points. The bets I'll be looking out for when prices are up are an angle for Italy to score more points or tries than expected.

Best bet for me in this game is evens for Italy to score >1.5 tries with PP/BF Sportsbook. Odds on elsewhere and I think that's correct. No spread option appeals so keeping it simple and at shorter odds.

I can't resist 15/2 with Lads for a successful drop goal (7/1 plus price boost)

Finally, a few mug/fun bets that appeal at the prices. All to small stakes, some using freebies.

An Italy player to be man of the match 14/1 Betway
Drop goal in both of today's games at 48.75 with PP
Italy to win the race to 20 points at 24/1 with 888
Campagnaro to score a try in the 1st 10 minutes at 100/1 with PP
Campagnaro try/Italy to win and score >14.5 points at 50/1 with Lads

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19 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Ireland/England: Buy Ireland hotshots at 24 with SPIN (Stockdale, Ringrose, Earls, Henshaw)

4 points higher elsewhere, I think that's a more accurate price. Having looked at the player stats (especially Stockdale, obviously) I'm happy buying these 4 where there's even a single point profit to be had if they only score one try between them.

Added Stockdale to score the 1st or 2nd try at 4/1 Fred - just about feels like a backable price for the clear favourite in the try scorer markets with the 2 bites at the cherry (he's 7/1 best for 1st try). 

Neither team to score 20 points at 9/4 Lads - landed in 5 of the last 10 6 Nations meetings between the teams, 4 out of 5 in Ireland.

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Quick review to see how the bets have panned out so far.

Antepost outright: Wales and (especially) England both upset the odds by winning, Wales in from 13/2 to 3/1 and England from 9/2 to odds on! Obviously reasonably pleased with that.

Kicking metres sell: Sold at 3,800 which equates to 253 metres per match, current total 597 which is 199 per match. Market currently suspended but will obviously have moved downwards. A decent result that, if replicated over all 5 sets of fixtures, would see a make up of just 2,985.

Drop goals: 1 so far which shortens the odds of the over bet landing.

France/Wales: 34 points profit on the buy of Wales hotshots.

Scotland/Italy: Modest profit as the main bet on Italy >1.5 tries covered the losses on the smaller bets.

Ireland/England: WIpeout on this game, lost most or all of the profit from the other two but at least the England outright bet looks good now.

An enjoyable first weekend, bring on the next one!

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Early thoughts on week 2, no money risked yet as we wait for the full array of markets to be offered.

The spreads for Wales supremacy over Italy opened at 21-24 but now stand at 18-19 and handicap lines are similarly down from 22/23 to 17/18. Wishing I'd taken the opening lines, watching brief for now but expect to be siding with Italy points or tries again.

Scotland/Ireland lines are pitched as expected around the 5-7 mark and hard to dispute that. Best bet for me, if I had to pick one now, would be Ireland by 1-10 points at 11/5. I'd be happy to side with Scotland hotshots if offered the right players and price.

My "guesstimate" for England/France was +18 but the market goes 4 or 5 points lower than that. If you pressed me for a bet now I'd take England -12 at 10/11.

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Scotland/Ireland: Bought Scotland hotshots at 24 with SX (Maitland, Jones, Seymour, Hogg) Not expecting a try fest here but happy to take Scotland's 4 highest tryscorers over the last 4 years at a price that edges into profit if they muster a single try.

I've also backed >1.5 cards in the game at 9/4 Hills. Got a feeling it could be "tasty" (to get all technical) and don't think that's a bad price compared to a potential bookings buy at 12. As short as 11/10 elsewhere (which is ridiculous).

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England/France:

Slade to score a try at 4.6 and Tuilagi at 4.4. Both seem reasonable at 3/1 or better.

Buy France hotshots at 16 with SX (Fickou, Basteraud, Penaud, Huget) SPIN are four points higher with one player different, I'd have expected a similar price for this quartet. A decent bet with 9 points profit for a single try.

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Nice to finish on a winning note, Slade try and 9 point profit on "le Hotshots"!

No drop goals this week but the outright position on England/Wales looks good.

Also reasonably happy with the kicking metres sell. 1121 after 6 games apparently. If that average plays out across the remaining games (a big if) then the bet is on track for a profit of almost 1,000 times stake! :loon

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On 2/8/2019 at 8:52 PM, thecurlyone1 said:

I’m wales -18

ireland 1-12 winning margin 

 

England - 12 

2 out of 3 hopefully not too bad an outcome.

I've just had a look at the initial "gut feel" handicaps I wrote down for each game, before tweaking them based on a closer look and prices on offer. I've been way out in England's games, 22 points when they beat Ireland and 18 against France. For the other 4 games I've either been spot on (both Wales games) or 1 point out (both Scotland games).

Somehow I don't think that's translated into the sort of betting profits it ought to have done, especially with me not backing a lot of the bets I've said made most appeal. :eyes

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On 11/02/2019 at 3:36 PM, harry_rag said:

2 out of 3 hopefully not too bad an outcome.

I've just had a look at the initial "gut feel" handicaps I wrote down for each game, before tweaking them based on a closer look and prices on offer. I've been way out in England's games, 22 points when they beat Ireland and 18 against France. For the other 4 games I've either been spot on (both Wales games) or 1 point out (both Scotland games).

Somehow I don't think that's translated into the sort of betting profits it ought to have done, especially with me not backing a lot of the bets I've said made most appeal. :eyes

i was 1/2 a point up on saturdays game 

so i went in again on england 1/3 pt each on -15 , -18 & -20  worked out alright  :)

 

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    • Vernons Sports JOIN
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    Casino 10
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