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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - February 25 - March 3

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Denis Kudla to beat Ricardas Berankis at 2.45 with Unibet

I'll give Denis some bigger chances than the odds suggest for him to win. They met twice as they split a pair of matches in 2013 on hardcourt. Why pick Denis? I like how he dismantled Matteo Berrettini and I think Ricardas might be overrated now because he beat Daniil Medvedev. This match should at least be 50/50 before it begins. How it goes when it starts is another thing but I'll take my chances with Denis at the current odds.

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24 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Denis Kudla to beat Ricardas Berankis at 2.45 with Unibet

I'll give Denis some bigger chances than the odds suggest for him to win. They met twice as they split a pair of matches in 2013 on hardcourt. Why pick Denis? I like how he dismantled Matteo Berrettini and I think Ricardas might be overrated now because he beat Daniil Medvedev. This match should at least be 50/50 before it begins. How it goes when it starts is another thing but I'll take my chances with Denis at the current odds.

Do you think an in-play bet might be useful here? Just to see how they are measuring up to each other?

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@South_African_Punter or anybody else awake ?.. what do you think the chances of Gerasimov are today .. he's beating quality opponents, and I believe that Stefanos might be gassed out. @four-leaf did you see how well berankis was playing yesterday.. kudla may have only won because of poor form opponent 

Edited by money44

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1 minute ago, money44 said:

@South_African_Punter or anybody else awake ?.. what do you think the chances of Gerasimov are today .. he's beating quality opponents, and I believe that Stefanos might be gassed out. 

Just remember that Haase, who he beat yesterday, is in very form at the moment, so not sure how much to read into Gerasimov's victory yesterday. Also Gerasimov had many BP opportunities yesterday (0/7 in Set 2), which he didn't take. It is very possible Tsistipas could be gassed out, but unsure whether Gerasimov can take advantage.

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Great , thats very important information , also Nishikori looks a bit gassed to me as well for the record but he is running quite fast .. so, I don't know what to think of that.. But it might be just enough to help me out either way .. ok i take break .. bbl 

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54 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

Do you think an in-play bet might be useful here? Just to see how they are measuring up to each other?

Yes I think an in-play bet could be useful... I think I'll cash out my bet on Denis for now, I'm kind of worried that Denis might lose in straight sets after @money44 said Ricardas played well yesterday.

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Gael Monfils to beat (-4.5) Marcos Baghdatis at 1.90 with Unibet

Gael is defenitely worth a shot at this handicap today. He played excellent yesterday and Marcos will be under pressure constantly on his serve here. A little bit safer pick than going for Denis Kudla to beat Ricardas Berankis. Feeling confident that Gael covers this easy enough.

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5 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Gael Monfils to beat (-4.5) Marcos Baghdatis at 1.90 with Unibet

Gael is defenitely worth a shot at this handicap today. He played excellent yesterday and Marcos will be under pressure constantly on his serve here. A little bit safer pick than going for Denis Kudla to beat Ricardas Berankis. Feeling confident that Gael covers this easy enough.

Appreciate your picks bro! Unfortunately tailed the Kudla one without seeing the latter posts, though this saved some bread :)  Any other picks for today? Reckon Kyrgios has a chance at Nadal this evening?

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Fernando Verdasco to beat (+1.5 sets) Roger Federer at 2.20 with Unibet

Backing Roger nowadays in any match is suicide. He's not covering handicaps, losing sets and matches. To back a player like Fernando here could be a good choice. I don't think Fernando wins because he always have struggled to beat the swiss, something he has never achieved but I can see Fernando taking a set.

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46 minutes ago, Altior94 said:

Appreciate your picks bro! Unfortunately tailed the Kudla one without seeing the latter posts, though this saved some bread :)  Any other picks for today? Reckon Kyrgios has a chance at Nadal this evening?

Nick the clown has no chance at Rafa this evening. Can't see it happening if Rafa plays like he did last night.

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Felix Auger Aliassime to beat Pablo Cuevas at 2.62 with Bet365.

Alright, I watched Aliassime beat Cuevas last week and he was pretty impressive. Cuevas has been playing pretty well and I still rate him as a slight favorite to take this match, but at these odds, I have to back Aliassime. Cuevas looked gassed out in the third set while playing Aliassime and if this match goes the distance, I would definitely fancy the chances of the Canadian. 

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Marton Fucsovics (+4.5) to beat Roger Federer at 1.97 with Unibet

This looks like a fairly high line given Federer's woes and given that he is yet to face a player that can rely on his serve a lot. Fucsovics has been playing well lately and he has played against Federer before, so he shouldn't be scared by what's going to come. I'm not convinced that he's going to win, but the +4.5 games line does look worth taking to me.

@money44 I'd fancy Ferrer a touch more, can't see Lopez winning personally, De Minaur is moving too well imo.

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@CzechPunter I also reckon there might be a sizable chance with the man known as Berankis vs Monfils .. He's having quite a tournament so far, and it would seem as though Gael's wheels are running out of gas... He didn't look at top form vs Marcos today.. I didn't see the Federer match.. Did anybody see it ?

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It was the same scenario as before, Roger starting well, then dropping, then bouncing back again and his opponent not being up to the task. I'd say that Fucsovics can serve better at the moment than both Verdasco and Kohli though. I didn't see his match today, but the scoreline looks very convincing.

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The scoreline can sometimes look conveniently convincing because Struff was not playing well , and Marton has an advantage on the baseline vs him. Vs Roger that advantage is switched, and by a wider margin.. Question only if roger's fitness is up to the match which is hard to say unless we have someone who watched the match. I've had a tough time deciding when to lay him , and I will review some tapes. 

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I've seen enough to determine from the match Vs Verdasco that Roger is looking good enough to make a championship run.. That doesn't bode well for our predictions of Coric and Fucsovics +4.5 games.. I'd be careful with that , and I'm going to be as well... AT this point I believe that Berankis or Hurkacz may be a safer try in Dubai tomorrow 

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My two cents on Federer v Fucsovics is that Fucsovics will never have a better chance to score a big win. Even if he goes a set down, he'll know he's still in it as Federer isn't closing out matches in straight sets with any kind of regularity at all. On top of that, Fucsovics took a set against Djokovic earlier in the season so a set against Federer must be a possibility and if it does go to three sets then who knows who takes the W. Kohli and Verdasco might have both fallen away but much of that probably has to do with all the losses they've suffered against Federer down the years. Fucsovics doesn't carry those kind of scars which could make him dangerous if he is able to be competitive in the same way Kohli and Verdasco were.

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