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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - February 25 - March 3

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5 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Gael Monfils to beat (-4.5) Marcos Baghdatis at 1.90 with Unibet

Gael is defenitely worth a shot at this handicap today. He played excellent yesterday and Marcos will be under pressure constantly on his serve here. A little bit safer pick than going for Denis Kudla to beat Ricardas Berankis. Feeling confident that Gael covers this easy enough.

Appreciate your picks bro! Unfortunately tailed the Kudla one without seeing the latter posts, though this saved some bread :)  Any other picks for today? Reckon Kyrgios has a chance at Nadal this evening?

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Fernando Verdasco to beat (+1.5 sets) Roger Federer at 2.20 with Unibet

Backing Roger nowadays in any match is suicide. He's not covering handicaps, losing sets and matches. To back a player like Fernando here could be a good choice. I don't think Fernando wins because he always have struggled to beat the swiss, something he has never achieved but I can see Fernando taking a set.

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46 minutes ago, Altior94 said:

Appreciate your picks bro! Unfortunately tailed the Kudla one without seeing the latter posts, though this saved some bread :)  Any other picks for today? Reckon Kyrgios has a chance at Nadal this evening?

Nick the clown has no chance at Rafa this evening. Can't see it happening if Rafa plays like he did last night.

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Felix Auger Aliassime to beat Pablo Cuevas at 2.62 with Bet365.

Alright, I watched Aliassime beat Cuevas last week and he was pretty impressive. Cuevas has been playing pretty well and I still rate him as a slight favorite to take this match, but at these odds, I have to back Aliassime. Cuevas looked gassed out in the third set while playing Aliassime and if this match goes the distance, I would definitely fancy the chances of the Canadian. 

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Marton Fucsovics (+4.5) to beat Roger Federer at 1.97 with Unibet

This looks like a fairly high line given Federer's woes and given that he is yet to face a player that can rely on his serve a lot. Fucsovics has been playing well lately and he has played against Federer before, so he shouldn't be scared by what's going to come. I'm not convinced that he's going to win, but the +4.5 games line does look worth taking to me.

@money44 I'd fancy Ferrer a touch more, can't see Lopez winning personally, De Minaur is moving too well imo.

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@CzechPunter I also reckon there might be a sizable chance with the man known as Berankis vs Monfils .. He's having quite a tournament so far, and it would seem as though Gael's wheels are running out of gas... He didn't look at top form vs Marcos today.. I didn't see the Federer match.. Did anybody see it ?

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It was the same scenario as before, Roger starting well, then dropping, then bouncing back again and his opponent not being up to the task. I'd say that Fucsovics can serve better at the moment than both Verdasco and Kohli though. I didn't see his match today, but the scoreline looks very convincing.

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The scoreline can sometimes look conveniently convincing because Struff was not playing well , and Marton has an advantage on the baseline vs him. Vs Roger that advantage is switched, and by a wider margin.. Question only if roger's fitness is up to the match which is hard to say unless we have someone who watched the match. I've had a tough time deciding when to lay him , and I will review some tapes. 

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I've seen enough to determine from the match Vs Verdasco that Roger is looking good enough to make a championship run.. That doesn't bode well for our predictions of Coric and Fucsovics +4.5 games.. I'd be careful with that , and I'm going to be as well... AT this point I believe that Berankis or Hurkacz may be a safer try in Dubai tomorrow 

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My two cents on Federer v Fucsovics is that Fucsovics will never have a better chance to score a big win. Even if he goes a set down, he'll know he's still in it as Federer isn't closing out matches in straight sets with any kind of regularity at all. On top of that, Fucsovics took a set against Djokovic earlier in the season so a set against Federer must be a possibility and if it does go to three sets then who knows who takes the W. Kohli and Verdasco might have both fallen away but much of that probably has to do with all the losses they've suffered against Federer down the years. Fucsovics doesn't carry those kind of scars which could make him dangerous if he is able to be competitive in the same way Kohli and Verdasco were.

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Rafa Nadal to beat (-4.5) Nick Kyrgios at 2.16 with Unibet

And suddenly the clown gets overrated like an Elephant at an amusement park because he beat the mug Andreas Seppi. Rafa is gonna destroy him. But still I keep the stakes down because you never know but things aren't looking bad for Rafa nowadays and I don't see Nick as the man who can seriously put a stop to Rafas title charge in Acapulco or even trouble him.

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Feliciano Lopez to beat Alex de Minaur at 3.65 with Unibet

Alex hasn't deserved this sort of favouritism yet. Especially not when he's facing a guy who served lefty like crazy against him in Paris last season and won just because of that and that Feli I saw yesterday also and if he can repeat that game again Alex could be in trouble.

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I'm also wondering what's going on with a certain Jannik Sinner right now. I haven't really been paying attention to him until last week, when he swept a Challenger tournament as a massive underdog, winning 5 matches as an underdog and the finals as the favorite, very decent opposition as well. Crazy what home conditions can do sometimes and considering which guys he was losing to before that tournament happened.

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Frances Tiafoe/Mackie Mcdonald over 2.5 sets at 2.32 with Unibet

I really don't see Frances as the man who suddenly takes down Mackie in straight sets and ends his good run because he's won one match in Acapulco. Mackie was playing very well in Delray Beach and a straight sets win for any of these two I don't see coming.

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1 minute ago, four-leaf said:

Frances Tiafoe/Mackie Mcdonald over 2.5 sets at 2.32 with Unibet

I really don't see Frances as the man who suddenly takes down Mackie in straight sets and ends his good run because he's won one match in Acapulco. Mackie was playing very well in Delray Beach and a straight sets win for any of these two I don't see coming.

Never mind all that... Go Mackie Go!!! :lol

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David Ferrer to beat (+4.5) Sascha Zverev at 1.78 with Unibet

David is looking awfully good this season even though it's his last but he's playing such tennis that I really don't see him going down in this match by 5 games. He's all over the place and playing great. When he beat Tennys Sandgren I just felt all the match David was the man to win it and I never got really worried even though he went down a break and Tennys served for the second set. David was just awesome and I don't see him going down here by more then 2-3 games in one of his best tournaments. He's got the crowd on his side to, they're really cheering for David every point he wins.

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52 minutes ago, Torque said:

My two cents on Federer v Fucsovics is that Fucsovics will never have a better chance to score a big win. Even if he goes a set down, he'll know he's still in it as Federer isn't closing out matches in straight sets with any kind of regularity at all. On top of that, Fucsovics took a set against Djokovic earlier in the season so a set against Federer must be a possibility and if it does go to three sets then who knows who takes the W. Kohli and Verdasco might have both fallen away but much of that probably has to do with all the losses they've suffered against Federer down the years. Fucsovics doesn't carry those kind of scars which could make him dangerous if he is able to be competitive in the same way Kohli and Verdasco were.

Kohlschrieber and Verdasco are both more accomplished players than fucsovics. We also know that sometimes Roger can struggle with lefties like Nadal.. I think that's the excuse for Verdasco to take a set off him 

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3 minutes ago, money44 said:

Kohlschrieber and Verdasco are both more accomplished players than fucsovics. We also know that sometimes Roger can struggle with lefties like Nadal.. I think that's the excuse for Verdasco to take a set off him 

They certainly are. They're also more accomplished than the likes of Millman, Donskoy, Stakhovsky, Kokkinakis and any of the numerous other rank outsiders over the years to beat the Swiss. Being more accomplished doesn't count for much IMO when you've never beaten the player across the net from you in a dozen tries or more.

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@Torque You have to decide for yourself what is right , but I don't see it happening .. If you watched the Fucsovics match this morning, and you thought he was spectacular .. maybe I might change my mind on this , but we haven't had a single person come in here and analyze the match vs Struff yet.. So we are only going based on the scoreline, and Beating Struff does not convince me 

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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

I'm also wondering what's going on with a certain Jannik Sinner right now. I haven't really been paying attention to him until last week, when he swept a Challenger tournament as a massive underdog, winning 5 matches as an underdog and the finals as the favorite, very decent opposition as well. Crazy what home conditions can do sometimes and considering which guys he was losing to before that tournament happened.

He's a massive talent maybe.. I watched some of the match vs Lamasine.. I tried a punt on Lamasine, and Sinner was hitting exceptional shots.. The video was not real clear, and I'm uncertain of his strength and fitness level but he seems to be a shotmaker. The Italians are having a strong run in tennis right now with a very deep roster of talented players of all ages on the mens side... I have yet to determine the women, but I have seen quite a few on the rankings. 

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I'm not saying I think Fucsovics will win just that as much of a paradox as it might seem, the lesser player compared to Kohlschreiber and Verdasco in Fucsovics has a better chance of causing an upset win IMHO. Now I've said that Federer will probably click into gear and beat Fucsovics easily. That's betting for you :ok

Oh and Fucsovics needn't be spectacular to beat Federer - Just ask Millman. Nobody will ever convince me that Millman beat Federer. Federer beat Federer. What Millman did, and for which he deserves enormous credit, is hung in there. If Fucsovics can hang tough in the same way it's possible Federer could do the rest for him.

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I usually am on the side of betting against Federer, and I've lost before doing this a few times atleast.. Don't forget this is Federer's home.. He lives in Dubai if I remember correctly.. I think you will need a bigger effort than someone of Marton fucsovic's ability.. I am hoping Coric can pull it off in the next round, but I'm very uncertain of that now as well. 

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