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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - February 11 - February 17

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7 hours ago, darko08 said:

Well, another bad day for me. @four-leaf you were right about Cuevas, he’s showing some of that tennis that made him a threat for any player on clay and @bobix was right about Ramos, Ferrer did well at first but he had no gasoline for the final set. I need to work better to try to solve this losing streak, but im sure I will do.

Honestly... I would rather call myself lucky rather than right with Ramos :) keep up the work, winners will come ;) 

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Medvedev to beat Tsonga at 1.67 with SportingBet

Medvedev and Tsonga both have had similar playing schedules in the past 2 weeks or so, however, in my mind, Medvedev cruised to victory in ATP Sofia, while Tsonga, who also won ATP Montpellier, had a bit of a tougher time. Also I believe that Medvedev is a more talented player than Tsonga, so I will be backing him here.

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20 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

Medvedev to beat Tsonga at 1.67 with SportingBet

Medvedev and Tsonga both have had similar playing schedules in the past 2 weeks or so, however, in my mind, Medvedev cruised to victory in ATP Sofia, while Tsonga, who also won ATP Montpellier, had a bit of a tougher time. Also I believe that Medvedev is a more talented player than Tsonga, so I will be backing him here.

My 2 cents is that this game is very unpredictable.If it goes to tie breaks it can swing either way.So far Medvedev has been an engine and people have been counting on him to tire as seen by the Verdasco tips yesterday.If anything I'd say the match going more than 2 sets is a higher probability and safer bet or an Over type.I'll wait to watch for better odds but goodluck.

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Back Xinyun Han (+1.5 sets) to defeat Misaki Doi at 2.13 with MarathonBet

Back Magdalena Frech (+1.5 sets) to defeat Veronika Kudermetova at 1.91 with MarathonBet

In my opinion, these two matchups from WTA Dubai qualification are much more balanced than the odds suggest, so I am more than happy to play the set handicap, especially at over/almost evens.

Other than these, I would favor Svitolina more than Halep, and Mertens might also have a chance as Kerber apparently did not calibrate herself to optimal temperature yet.

UPDATE: Kudermetova withdraws, Frech will play Jurak, pick void.

Edited by bobix

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Elina Svitolina (+3.0) to beat Simona Halep at 1.80 with Marathonbet

I have watched both players and I think this will be a close game. Halep is still not at her 100% and Svitolina leads the h2h against her (4-1). The last 3 times they have played Svitolina has won easily (6-0 and 6-4 in Rome, 6-3 and 6-4 in Singapore, 6-1 and 6-1 in Canada), including 2 matches played on hard. The only match won by Halep was played on clay, her favorite surface. I know Halep defends Semifinals but Svitolina lost the last year in the third round because she faced the winner of the tournament: Kvitova. I expect a close match, Elina leads the h2h and Halep is still not at her best. Halep has won here against Tsurenko (6-2, 6-3) and Gorges (7-6, 7-6) while Svitolina has won against Ostapenko (6-4, 6-4) and Muchova (6-4, 6-2). I prefer the handicap because this is a match that can be win by both players and the line even can be covered with a win of Halep in 2 close sets or 3 sets.

Jason Jung (+4.0) to beat Sam Querrey at 1.90 with Marathonbet

Jason Jung won against Tiafoe in straight sets and now he will face a Querrey. Tiafoe is in better form than Querrey and has a better return than him so Jung in theory has an easier match than he had in the previous round. The problem is that for these players usually after a big win comes the fall but not always. Anyway, I expect this line to covered at least.

Edited by darko08

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1 hour ago, darko08 said:

Elina Svitolina (+3.0) to beat Simona Halep at 1.80 with Marathonbet

I have watched both players and I think this will be a close game. Halep is still not at her 100% and Svitolina leads the h2h against her (4-1). The last 3 times they have played Svitolina has won easily (6-0 and 6-4 in Rome, 6-3 and 6-4 in Singapore, 6-1 and 6-1 in Canada), including 2 matches played on hard. The only match won by Halep was played on clay, her favorite surface. I know Halep defends Semifinals but Svitolina lost the last year in the third round because she faced the winner of the tournament: Kvitova. I expect a close match, Elina leads the h2h and Halep is still not at her best. Halep has won here against Tsurenko (6-2, 6-3) and Gorges (7-6, 7-6) while Svitolina has won against Ostapenko (6-4, 6-4) and Muchova (6-4, 6-2). I prefer the handicap because this is a match that can be win by both players and the line even can be covered with a win of Halep in 2 close sets or 3 sets.

Jason Jung (+4.0) to beat Sam Querrey at 1.90 with Marathonbet

Jason Jung won against Tiafoe in straight sets and now he will face a Querrey. Tiafoe is in better form than Querrey and has a better return than him so Jung in theory has an easier match than he had in the previous round. The problem is that for these players usually after a big win comes the fall but not always. Anyway, I expect this line to covered at least.

I am conerned with the Jung bet .. I think he still has a chance because i took him also.. The issue here is I disagree on Tiafoe's form .. It was not good in New York.. The #1 reason that i bet Jung last match was to lay Tiafoe.. I did think Jung had some positive's going into the match playing well indoors, and I believe he stands a chance vs querrey.. The odds look fair to me, and the +4 games certainly is possible. 

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1 hour ago, darko08 said:

@money44 okok! my reference for what i said about Tiafoe and Sam was the Australia Open, let's see if Jung gives us some good news this evening:hope

that would be nice, but I wouldn't count on Jung to win for you this time.  I think Cuevas is playing pretty well, and he's far more likely to win in my mind or Thompson.. Still pulling for Jung tho.. Let's see what happens :cheers 

I took Halep @ odds 8 in the third set.. I should have won thousands of dollars on that bet, but it is what it is .. Still on the grind waiting for a big score. 

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10 hours ago, money44 said:

Kamke lost already .. pretty upset about that .. but have to do a system play now to insure the rest of the matches 

Fucsovics to beat nishikori @ 4.83 with Pinnacle - 2 units 

Jung to beat Querrey @ 5.35 with Pinnacle - 2 units 

I think you're right about Marton Fucsovics but maybe not on Jason Jung, I will bet myself on Marton to beat the Kei.

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1 hour ago, money44 said:

that would be nice, but I wouldn't count on Jung to win for you this time.  I think Cuevas is playing pretty well, and he's far more likely to win in my mind or Thompson.. Still pulling for Jung tho.. Let's see what happens :cheers 

I took Halep @ odds 8 in the third set.. I should have won thousands of dollars on that bet, but it is what it is .. Still on the grind waiting for a big score. 

Nice move! I did the same, at third set 4-2 after Halep came back from 0-30 and then 3 BPs. The odds were then 4.95 great value in a very possible momentum change, especially in women tennis. Luckily for us, it worked out :) I had Svitolina and Mertens in a set handicap parlay, but also backed Kerber at the beginning of the second set. Let's see...

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Kei Nishikori (-4.0) to beat Marton Fucsovics at 1.81 with Marathonbet

In this case im not right with you about the match between Fucsovics and Nishikori. Fucsovics has played 6 matches in 9 days and this is not best way to play against a Nishikori that is not playing his best tennis but who will be fit for this one (only 2 matches played here since the AO). I expected a hard match for Kei against Gulbis but I was wrong, he destroyed him (6-1 and 6-4 and could have been worse for him). Nishikori is more solid than Fucsovics and considering that he has played 6 matches in 9 days I expect a comfortable win for Nishikori.

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17 minutes ago, darko08 said:

Kei Nishikori (-4.0) to beat Marton Fucsovics at 1.81 with Marathonbet

In this case im not right with you about the match between Fucsovics and Nishikori. Fucsovics has played 6 matches in 9 days and this is not best way to play against a Nishikori that is not playing his best tennis but who will be fit for this one (only 2 matches played here since the AO). I expected a hard match for Kei against Gulbis but I was wrong, he destroyed him (6-1 and 6-4 and could have been worse for him). Nishikori is more solid than Fucsovics and considering that he has played 6 matches in 9 days I expect a comfortable win for Nishikori.

I second you on this, Kei should be able to cover this handicap if no physical problems arise. It should be the end of a nice run for Fucsovics.

FYI: I am Hungarian, so I can share some info about Márton with you. He is looking to hire one more coach to make the next step forward. His current one told the media last year that Márton needs somebody who is able to work with him around 8-10 weeks a year to improve mostly his service and the efficiency of winning key points.
The name is Olivier Tauma, and he should join their team in the next two weeks. 

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Daniil Medvedev (-2.5) to beat Gael Monfils at 1.77 with Marathonbet

Medvedev is playing incredible the last weeks. Now he will face Monfils who is also playing well but not in the same level than the russian. Just one week ago Medvedev won easily against Monfils in the semifinals of Sofia (6-2, 6-4), so I expect another win for Medvedev here.

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Reilly Opelka to beat John Isner at ? with ?

As soon as the prices come around I think I will back Reilly to beat Big John as there is 50/50 between these two who wins because of the serves they have. I think we'll see Reilly in his first ATP final now versus Sam Querrey.

Brayden Schnur/Sam Querrey over 22.5 games at 1.80 with bet365

Basically another toss up. Sam as slight fav, not big like 1.25 that he is. That's just because of ranking and experience Sam gets the favouritism. I expect three more sets for Sam here.

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Back Lucie Hradecka to beat Polona Hercog at 2.20 with Pinnacle

The Czech lady is apparently going through a good time, which should give her the ammunition to qualify on the main table. She might have had some problems in the first set against Eden Silva, but then came back and stormed into the final round of the qualies. I was already thinking about backing Elbaba for a set against Hercog yesterday, but I was a p*ssy. I simply don't rate her good enough to win today.

UPDATE: forgot to mention that Hercog had a MTO yesterday, not sure though how serious her injury was.

 

Edited by bobix

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Rogerio Dutra Da Silva -1.5 Sets @ 2.11 in SBOBet Stake 3.5/10

 

Rogerio Dutra Da Silva is a clay-courter, plays in his country and he's already used to the xlay surface 'cause he has played in Punta Del Este Challenger, ATP250 Cordoba and Buenos Aires and the Davis Cup games against Belgium.

On the other side, it will be the first game for Donati on clay-court 'cause his last game was in the previous draw from Montpellier in hard indoor.

Nothing much more to sat, it should be an easy win for the brazilian.

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Hradecka won in 3 sets, let's go with another one...

Back Stan Wawrinka (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Kei Nishikori at 1.74 with MaratonBet

In the early morning, the odds were at 1.86 with various bookies, I thought there is still time to post the pick, but since then dropped well. Not quite sure why the Japanese guy is such a favorite here taking into account the good form Wawrinka shown this week against more than reputable indoor players. Wawrinka troubled Nishikori well enough during their previous encounters should have a real chance here this afternoon. Over 1.70 for a set, really? OK, I'll take it.

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Simona Halep (-1.5 Sets) to beat Elise Mertens at 1.96 with 888

Nothing much to say here. Halep has won the 2 matches that they have played by the fast way and both matches were played in 2018 (6-2, 6-1 in RG and 6-0, 6-3 in Madrid). I’m still disappointed with the awful performance of Mertens in the Fed Cup. It’s true that she has played better here but I expect a win for Simona in 2 sets considering that she is better and is in a better form than Mertens.

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9 minutes ago, Crimson_Silhouette said:

Yastremska to beat Muguruza at 2.00 with Bet365

Yastremska has been in terrific form this year and has a positive head to head against Muguruza. She is yet to drop a set against Muguruza and I believe she has enough firepower to get through this match. 

:welcome to PL @Crimson_Silhouette  :cheers 

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