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Tennis Tips - February 11 - February 17


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Back Alexandre Muller (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Simone Bolelli at 1.77 with MarathonBet

Going for my usual set handicap where I see value. It's OK that the Italian is the favorite in this matchup, but I don't really think if he will be able to close this in two sets. Muller hopefully put his past injuries behind himself, and the home turf will boost his morale even more to play a good match.

Back Dalma Gálfi (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Natalia Viklyantseva at 2.03 with MarathonBet

I did not wake up early enough, therefore missed playing Makarova for a set... :( I will pick Gálfi instead, and I know that I'm going well against the odds here... The Russian lady played some excellent tennis in the FED Cup lately, and she is the right favorite, but so did Gálfi, which might be a bit unexpected from her taking into account the average year 2018 she had. But she apparently started 2019 well, and I'm pretty sure she will give more than 100% in front of the home crowd.

GL :hope

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WTA Dubai. Muguruza - Yastremska

Muguruza to win @2.17 (Betano)

I thing Muguruza has good chances to win if she keeps her morale up and focuses on the game. Yes, Yastremska has a great shot but she is very emotionally unstable sometimes (yes, Muguruza as well :) ). I've seen her doing a lot of double errors and Muguruza, being in a good day, might penalise her for it. 

It will be the 5th appearance of the Spaniard in Dubai, which means she likes this tournament and will take it seriously.

I don't see Yastremska going with the 3rd win over Muguruza.

 

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Gálfi canceled out the loss on Muller, so at least I broke even with these two picks. Let's see what we have for tomorrow...

Back Roberto Carballes Baena to beat Nicolas Jarry at 2.20 with Expekt

Jarry is not convincing at all nowadays. He might have won two matches in the Davis Cup, but none of them was easy despite playing against all but reputable clay court opponents. Since then he lost two first-round matches, and I think tomorrow he'll make it three in a row. Carballes, on the other hand, seems to be playing quite OK, recently lost only to Cecchinato in a tight encounter, who ended up winning the tournament in Buenos Aires. I think the odds should be reversed here, so I am more than happy to back the Spanish guy.

Back Alison Riske (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Julia Goerges at 1.93 with Pinnacle

Goerges is a clear favorite here, agreed. These two ladies met this week in Doha, where Julia won in 3 sets. There is a general rule in tennis (applicable to all sports though, I guess), this is something a very good friend of mine told me who was a professional player. It is anything but easy to beat somebody twice who you met recently. This is why I did not agree with many of you when backing Medvedev against Monfils (albeit back then I did not state my opinion here). Riske is very rhapsodic, this match can easily end in two sets, but I hope she will show her better face and fight well.

Other than these I am also looking at Suarez Navarro and Karlovic, maybe I'll make a parlay of 3 set handicaps adding also Carballes.

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Back Damir Dzumhur to beat Peter Gojowczyk at 1.80 with Pinnacle

This match will be played on Tuesday, not tomorrow. Bet365 opened the odds at 1.66 the rest of the bookies at around 1.80 but already started to drop. Dzumhur's season start was awful, but after the Davis Cup he won two matches against good/in-form players like Tsitsipas and Kukushkin, being demolished later by tournament winner Monfils. But this should be enough for him to gather some pace and he will next have a favorable opponent in the form of Gojowczyk. Despite the fact of having some good (but short) periods from time to time, I always rated the German an average player, nothing special. Dzumhur also lead the H2H 2-0, and all of those were indoor hard matches.

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11 hours ago, bobix said:

I always rated the German an average player, nothing special

really? atp 60 nothing special. incredible tennis player imo and great fighter as well. not to mention the 1,8m eur he put together thru his short career.... tru that I would lay off this match, or maybe lean dzumhur as well.... :) GL

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1 hour ago, shambata said:

really? atp 60 nothing special. incredible tennis player imo and great fighter as well. not to mention the 1,8m eur he put together thru his short career.... tru that I would lay off this match, or maybe lean dzumhur as well.... :) GL

6

You're right my master! I was too harsh with my thoughtless words, and I should have said that Dzumhur's form is rising, while Gojowczyk is still calibrating himself instead. Anyway, I will stick with my pick of course. I would love to be a top200 player, but don't even play this sport... so yeah, ATP 60 is a decent place.

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