Tennis Tips - February 11 - February 17

[bobix]

Back Fernando Verdasco (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Daniil Medvedev at evens with Pinnacle

Not quite sure why the Spaniard is such a heavy underdog in this matchup, please let me know if I miss something. Ok, Daniil is going through a more than a decent period, but come on... I would also risk half stake on Verdasco's win, but will definitely go with the set handicap at evens. I was already debating whether to back Chardy for a set today, but in the end, it was a lucky choice to skip. The Frenchman had a decent opportunity to take the first set, but failed and then collapsed. Verdasco will have at least a similar if not better chance tomorrow. He also won their previous encounter last year, albeit on grass, but still comfortable.

I am very confident that Halep will easily go through Görges, that could serve as a good banker pick for another bet. Also, have a feeling that Garcia-Lopez might produce a surprising win against Millman, but 1.79 is decent odds on the set handicap.

[darko08]

Ernsts Gulbis to beat Kei Nishikori at 3.66 with Marathonbet

Kei suffered in the previous round against a tired Herbert while Gulbis destroyed Copil. If Gulbis serves in the same way he did he will have more options than the odds suggest. Nishikori had a deep run in the AO but we all know than he could have lost against Karlovic, Majchrzak and Carreño. He’s not playing his best tennis right now and he retired in his match against Nole in the quarterfinals of the AO for an injury.

I think those will be my last bets for this week, I also still have Bedene to win the 2nd quarter at 12.00 (he will play tomorrow against Schwartzman who is playing not well and Bedene leads the h2h 4-0 against him so let’s see what happen there but Diego is still the favourite obviously).

Joao Sousa to beat Pablo Cuevas at 2.70 with bwin

Sousa gave us a good win against Londero and i think that he will have more chances than the odds suggest here against Cuevas.

David Ferrer to beat Albert-Ramos Viñolas at 1.74 with 888

Ferrer is playing his last tournaments but this a very special tournament for him because he has won it 3 times (2012, 2013 and 2014). Albert Ramos is not playing his best tennis right now (I bet against him in Cordoba and that worked). I know Ferrer is old and he will retire soon but he’s also a fighter and Ramos is not in his best right now.

Edited February 14, 2019 by darko08

[Hermes]

18 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Brayden Schnur to beat Steve Johnson at 3.20 with Paddy Power

On a bit of a losing streak at the moment, but I suppose that was expected given the nice winning run at the start of the year. Nevertheless, I still want to play Schnur, especially after going through Johnson's record book that has so many recent losses that it's almost unbelievable. Of course, Schnur is a guy he could finally beat, but he's played some decent matches here already and has enough talent to stay there with Johnson. At 3.20, I think the bookies are underestimating Schnur's chances here.

What a comeback from Schnur on the last set.

[Hermes]

6 hours ago, bobix said:

Back Fernando Verdasco (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Daniil Medvedev at evens with Pinnacle

Not quite sure why the Spaniard is such a heavy underdog in this matchup, please let me know if I miss something. Ok, Daniil is going through a more than a decent period, but come on... I would also risk half stake on Verdasco's win, but will definitely go with the set handicap at evens. I was already debating whether to back Chardy for a set today, but in the end, it was a lucky choice to skip. The Frenchman had a decent opportunity to take the first set, but failed and then collapsed. Verdasco will have at least a similar if not better chance tomorrow. He also won their previous encounter last year, albeit on grass, but still comfortable.

I am very confident that Halep will easily go through Görges, that could serve as a good banker pick for another bet. Also, have a feeling that Garcia-Lopez might produce a surprising win against Millman, but 1.79 is decent odds on the set handicap.

In my honest opinion Medvedev > Tsitsipas and less inconsistent. Verdasco has a history of nerves in big matches and botlling in matches he should have won that's why bookies massively underrate him.The odds look perfectly fine. Medvedev beat a resurgent Monfils last week at Sofia almost too easily. 

No one doubts Verdasco can beat Medvedev if he wanted though.

Edited February 14, 2019 by Hermes
add

[CzechPunter]

Fernando Verdasco to beat Daniil Medvedev at 3.56 with Pinnacle

Like the big odds here again. As has already been pointed out, Medvedev could've easily lost against Chardy yesterday and the fatigue is only going to pile on now with no rest days. Verdasco is still a force to be reckoned with, I'd have him at something like 2.75 here, not 3.50+.

@money44 I watched only a few spots after the first set, but I thought it was more about Khachanov playing crap, Griekspoor was just regularly inspired by the home conditions.

[Sm0k3rZ]

verdasco is such a shit player

[South_African_Punter]

and chokes a lot...I was surprised to see the enthusiasm in here for Verdasco considering what happened last week + Medvedev's sensational form that he is in.

[four-leaf]

Pablo Cuevas to beat (-1.5 sets) Joao Sousa at 2.28 with Unibet

Pablo is playing his usual stuff on clay in South America. I don't see Joao touching Pablo on clay in South America. It takes another level from Joao to break Pablos serve on consistent basis which is likely what's required to take a set from Pablo on clay. It won't happen imo because Pablo is playing on such a high level right now. Saw him playing on livestream in Cordoba and he's back to his best no doubt and I can even see him winning a title this month or reaching another final. With the right opponent Pablo can do wonders and he's winning his matches 2-0 right now when he's winning and this should be no different. Head to head it's 2-3 for Joao but both matches on clay Pablo has won in straight sets.

[Grass Cash]

2 units Griekspoor live with Pinnacle to beat tsonga 8.0 odds

I confirmed the odds at 7.79 after submitting

Edited February 14, 2019 by money44

[Grass Cash]

Tallon is still playing very fine. I think I can smell something with Tsongas game dropping this match. It’s worth the risk at these odds

[Grass Cash]

@CzechPunter I believe it’s far more than that he is hitting a slice backhand an aggressive forehand very well and his speed and Defensive skills are very impressive also. The home crowd can push him to a victory here, If Tsonga is the slightest bit tired from the tournament in France

Edited February 14, 2019 by money44

[bobix]

Hmm... I don't reckon saying I was enthusiastic about Verdasco... did not even bet big on the set handicap, just with normal stake. All that we thought (together with Czech I guess) is that the prices were exaggerated, and we saw value in him. Of course, he produced yet another sloppy performance, so after all, you were right, but I would back him again and again at those odds. Anyway... moving forward.

Halep progressed, albeit it wasn't easy at all, and Garcia-Lopez also delivered the surprising win I was somewhat expecting.

Let's see Ramos-Vinolas.

[xxx1984xxx]

On 13.2.2019 at 8:38 PM, xxx1984xxx said:

Márton Fucsovics - Nikolos Bassilaschwili

 

I saw both in the first game. I liked the Georgian much better. very powerful game. unfortunately he sometimes exaggerates it. have already written about Martin here. I think too overrated. as well as the victory against Klizan. Klizan was a joke today. See Niklos as a favorite here. therefore, the odds are set wrong. VICTOR Bassilashvili

First, sorry for the bet. has anyone seen the game? unbelievable ... Basi leads 5: 4 15: 0 and shoots from there on every second ball out. 40 UE in two sets. I can not believe it but that was a joke. after 20 minutes I was sure that the bet went through.

Edited February 14, 2019 by xxx1984xxx

[darko08]

Well, another bad day for me. @four-leaf you were right about Cuevas, he’s showing some of that tennis that made him a threat for any player on clay and @bobix was right about Ramos, Ferrer did well at first but he had no gasoline for the final set. I need to work better to try to solve this losing streak, but im sure I will do.

[Torque]

@darko08 Keep going. A couple of winners or losers here and there mean nothing. What counts is how you do over hundreds and maybe even thousands of bets - that's what will tell you if you're on the right track 

[Grass Cash]

41-86 +20.16 units 

Jung dispatched Tiafoe very easily, and only wish I had much larger stake going because I had this match staked out for quite sometime.  Hope someone else won also .. Anyways .. Hope I can take my units straight back up now ..  

Book: Pinnacle 2 units each 

Halep to beat svitolina 1.82

Medvedev to beat tsonga 1.77

Dzumhur to beat monfils 3.88

Schnur to beat lorenzi 1.93

Kamke to beat sela 2.24

Paolini to beat zaja 1.95

 

[Grass Cash]

gl @darko08 I know what type of bets you are capable of, and soon i hope you will be on the right track .. I spent years on a downswing before and still trying to rise from it.  This Ostapenko craziness recently was difficult .. She's a tough player to predict , and later this season she's going to win alot of matches probably.. But who knows .. I might stop betting her for awhile.. We all have certain players that we like to bet, and she is not profitable past round 1 right now.. I do feel she's going to do better at indian wells or miami but have to go cautiously.. Her service technique is pretty bad but still lots of potential on serve.. she has nice power and spin but her toss is the main problem. 

[Grass Cash]

Kamke lost already .. pretty upset about that .. but have to do a system play now to insure the rest of the matches 

Fucsovics to beat nishikori @ 4.83 with Pinnacle - 2 units 

Jung to beat Querrey @ 5.35 with Pinnacle - 2 units 

Edited February 15, 2019 by money44
added Jung

[CzechPunter]

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (+2.5) to beat Reilly Opelka at 1.79 with Pinnacle

I liked GGL yesterday, he looked really pumped up and he should be able to outplay Opelka in rallies, the surface is giving him enough in that respect. With TBs always on the cards, I prefer the handicap over the straight win.

[Grass Cash]

For quick analysis on a pick .. CP always reads these .. don't know how he has the time.. lol i joke cp.. Fucsovics looks impossible on paper to win but its actually one of the strongest plays possibly.. Reasoning: The issue here is that Nishikori has an injury.. He withdrew from Aus open already.. I seen his clip in Rotterdam.. he does not look super motivated although playing well enough to win I guess.. I only see one second of his body.. Marton looked poised sealing his win(altho i don't watch that match either), He seems physically strong tho, and his best surface is indoor hard now.. Hard to say what will happen but I just think Fucs wants it more.. Could be a factor in who wins. 

[bobix]

7 hours ago, darko08 said:

Well, another bad day for me. @four-leaf you were right about Cuevas, he’s showing some of that tennis that made him a threat for any player on clay and @bobix was right about Ramos, Ferrer did well at first but he had no gasoline for the final set. I need to work better to try to solve this losing streak, but im sure I will do.

Honestly... I would rather call myself lucky rather than right with Ramos  keep up the work, winners will come  

[South_African_Punter]

Medvedev to beat Tsonga at 1.67 with SportingBet

Medvedev and Tsonga both have had similar playing schedules in the past 2 weeks or so, however, in my mind, Medvedev cruised to victory in ATP Sofia, while Tsonga, who also won ATP Montpellier, had a bit of a tougher time. Also I believe that Medvedev is a more talented player than Tsonga, so I will be backing him here.

[Hermes]

20 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

Medvedev to beat Tsonga at 1.67 with SportingBet

Medvedev and Tsonga both have had similar playing schedules in the past 2 weeks or so, however, in my mind, Medvedev cruised to victory in ATP Sofia, while Tsonga, who also won ATP Montpellier, had a bit of a tougher time. Also I believe that Medvedev is a more talented player than Tsonga, so I will be backing him here.

My 2 cents is that this game is very unpredictable.If it goes to tie breaks it can swing either way.So far Medvedev has been an engine and people have been counting on him to tire as seen by the Verdasco tips yesterday.If anything I'd say the match going more than 2 sets is a higher probability and safer bet or an Over type.I'll wait to watch for better odds but goodluck.

[bobix]

Back Xinyun Han (+1.5 sets) to defeat Misaki Doi at 2.13 with MarathonBet

Back Magdalena Frech (+1.5 sets) to defeat Veronika Kudermetova at 1.91 with MarathonBet

In my opinion, these two matchups from WTA Dubai qualification are much more balanced than the odds suggest, so I am more than happy to play the set handicap, especially at over/almost evens.

Other than these, I would favor Svitolina more than Halep, and Mertens might also have a chance as Kerber apparently did not calibrate herself to optimal temperature yet.

UPDATE: Kudermetova withdraws, Frech will play Jurak, pick void.

Edited February 15, 2019 by bobix

[darko08]

Elina Svitolina (+3.0) to beat Simona Halep at 1.80 with Marathonbet

I have watched both players and I think this will be a close game. Halep is still not at her 100% and Svitolina leads the h2h against her (4-1). The last 3 times they have played Svitolina has won easily (6-0 and 6-4 in Rome, 6-3 and 6-4 in Singapore, 6-1 and 6-1 in Canada), including 2 matches played on hard. The only match won by Halep was played on clay, her favorite surface. I know Halep defends Semifinals but Svitolina lost the last year in the third round because she faced the winner of the tournament: Kvitova. I expect a close match, Elina leads the h2h and Halep is still not at her best. Halep has won here against Tsurenko (6-2, 6-3) and Gorges (7-6, 7-6) while Svitolina has won against Ostapenko (6-4, 6-4) and Muchova (6-4, 6-2). I prefer the handicap because this is a match that can be win by both players and the line even can be covered with a win of Halep in 2 close sets or 3 sets.

Jason Jung (+4.0) to beat Sam Querrey at 1.90 with Marathonbet

Jason Jung won against Tiafoe in straight sets and now he will face a Querrey. Tiafoe is in better form than Querrey and has a better return than him so Jung in theory has an easier match than he had in the previous round. The problem is that for these players usually after a big win comes the fall but not always. Anyway, I expect this line to covered at least.

Edited February 15, 2019 by darko08

[Grass Cash]

Pinnacle: 2 units each

parlay: Jordan Thompson/Cuevas 12.0

ostapenko/kudermetova 4.34

 

[Grass Cash]

1 hour ago, darko08 said:

Elina Svitolina (+3.0) to beat Simona Halep at 1.80 with Marathonbet

I have watched both players and I think this will be a close game. Halep is still not at her 100% and Svitolina leads the h2h against her (4-1). The last 3 times they have played Svitolina has won easily (6-0 and 6-4 in Rome, 6-3 and 6-4 in Singapore, 6-1 and 6-1 in Canada), including 2 matches played on hard. The only match won by Halep was played on clay, her favorite surface. I know Halep defends Semifinals but Svitolina lost the last year in the third round because she faced the winner of the tournament: Kvitova. I expect a close match, Elina leads the h2h and Halep is still not at her best. Halep has won here against Tsurenko (6-2, 6-3) and Gorges (7-6, 7-6) while Svitolina has won against Ostapenko (6-4, 6-4) and Muchova (6-4, 6-2). I prefer the handicap because this is a match that can be win by both players and the line even can be covered with a win of Halep in 2 close sets or 3 sets.

Jason Jung (+4.0) to beat Sam Querrey at 1.90 with Marathonbet

Jason Jung won against Tiafoe in straight sets and now he will face a Querrey. Tiafoe is in better form than Querrey and has a better return than him so Jung in theory has an easier match than he had in the previous round. The problem is that for these players usually after a big win comes the fall but not always. Anyway, I expect this line to covered at least.

I am conerned with the Jung bet .. I think he still has a chance because i took him also.. The issue here is I disagree on Tiafoe's form .. It was not good in New York.. The #1 reason that i bet Jung last match was to lay Tiafoe.. I did think Jung had some positive's going into the match playing well indoors, and I believe he stands a chance vs querrey.. The odds look fair to me, and the +4 games certainly is possible. 

[darko08]

@money44 okok! my reference for what i said about Tiafoe and Sam was the Australia Open, let's see if Jung gives us some good news this evening

[Grass Cash]

1 hour ago, darko08 said:

@money44 okok! my reference for what i said about Tiafoe and Sam was the Australia Open, let's see if Jung gives us some good news this evening

that would be nice, but I wouldn't count on Jung to win for you this time.  I think Cuevas is playing pretty well, and he's far more likely to win in my mind or Thompson.. Still pulling for Jung tho.. Let's see what happens  

I took Halep @ odds 8 in the third set.. I should have won thousands of dollars on that bet, but it is what it is .. Still on the grind waiting for a big score. 

[Grass Cash]

I am watching Kerber - Mertens.. have not bet this yet but i think kerber is going to win .. not confident with it