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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - February 4 - February 10

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Players like Wawrinka don’t need to gain money with match fixing, they have a lot of money. Wawrinka had a complicated match against Copil who did final in this tournament the last year and Basilashvili can win against the best players but he also can lose against low ranked players because he has an ultra-aggressive style of playing. There is a lot of match fixing in Challengers and ITF events but I can’t imagine players with a good ATP ranking fixing matches so it’s more a motivation issue like you said. Obviously, there will be some that do it but not too many (and not the 2 players you have mentioned I guess). The most typical form of match fixing in this level is that where players bet for themselves on a full match bookie and If they see that they can’t win the match they retire.

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Roberto Bautista Agut to win ATP Sofia at 5.50 with bet365

My last bet this week. Considering the odds we have 4 favorites to win here: Bautista (5.5), Tsitsipas (5.5), Khachanov (5.5) and Medvedev (6.0). From all these players Bautista is the one who “theorically” has two first rounds easier than the others had.

He will face tomorrow Ebden (his victory against him is paid at 1.15). Ebden almost lost against Adrian Andreev, a local player who is 17 years old.

In his second match Bautista will face Yannick Maden/Seppi/Fucsovics (I think that he now is so much better than any of them). Fucsovics had an injury in the AO and he couldn’t compete for his country in the Davis Cup, so he can’t be in his best. Seppi played 2 matches in the Davis Cup (against Ramanathan 6-4, 6-2 and against Gunneswaran 6-1, 6-4). Both matches were played on Grass (different surface from here: hard indoor). Yannick Maden, who surprisingly won against Mannarino, can’t be a threat for RBA.

In the Semifinal he will face Khachanov/Berrettini/Copil/Lazarov/Verdasco. At first I have to say that this looks the kind of tournament were Verdasco has an early “unexpected” defeat (these are my feelings, let’s see what happens). Lazarov is a local player who is 17 years and probably will be destroyed by Verdasco if nothing “strange” happens there. Then Verdasco will face Copil (anybody can win here). The other players are Khachanov and Berrettini. The Russian played 2 matches in the Davis Cup (against Huesler 6-3, 7-5 and against Laaksonen 7-6, 6-7, 6-4). The matches were played on hard but is remarkable how Laaksonen put him in real troubles. Is important to remember that Bautista won against Khachanov 6-4, 7-5, 6-4 in the Australia Open (RBA leads the h2h 3-1 and the only 2 matches played on hard are victories for RBA). Anyway, I think Berrettini can put in some troubles to Karen, let’s see.

Im not gonna analise the possible Finalists from the other part. We have there Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Haase, Monfils,… The 2 more dangerous are Medvedev and Tsitsipas I guess (also Monfils if he finds some regularity in his game).

Finally, I want to talk about Bautista. He is in his best form. In the AO he won against Murray, Millman, Khachanov and Cilic. He won in Doha, beating there Berrettini, GG Lopez, Wawrinka, Djokovic and Berdych. I have no doubts about his implication here, he did Title here in 2016, beating Troicki in the Final.

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On 5/2/2019 at 9:00 AM, MAGA_Trump said:

Giannessi to win at 1'57 with >Betfair Stake 2'5/10

Giannessi 2-0 at 2'35 with >Unibet 0'75/10

6-7(8) 7-5 7-6(4) victory for Giannessi

There was no live TV on Bet365 on this match so I wasn't able to watch it. More than 3 hours game. Thiago served for the match in the 2nd set but luckily was not able to do it.

 

 

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What do you think about Kotov - Coppejans in Budapest Challenger? Special facts on it.

 

Kotov is a 20 years old russian that has won 1 game in Budapest and with a year record 7-2 (all game in hard surface).

 

On the other side of the net, there will be Coppejans that last Saturday the 2nd of February was playing Davis Cup in Brazil on clay court.

His record on hard is 55-62.

 

Much more experience for the belgian but I think the tough games in Davis Cup on clay and the surface change will affect him a lot.

 

Pavel Kotov @ 1'86 at Pinnacle Stake 1/10

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Daniel Brands (+1.5 sets) to beat Martin Klizan at 1.70 with Pinnacle

I don't have much of an appetite betting on Klizan after the weekend, but I can't see a better bet for tomorrow right now. Brands has been on fire so far in Sofia and his serve is working really well, while Klizan's first match here saw yet another roller-coaster. Klizan is the favourite, but he's dropping sets left and right against stable players.

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Pablo Cuevas to beat (-1.5 sets) Malek Jaziri at 1.76 with Unibet

Pablo have already beaten Malek in straight sets on hardcourt 2016 in Winston-Salem open by 7-5 6-1. If anyone saw Pablo playing yesterday he was absolutely outstanding. He didn't face a break point the hole match because his serving was so perfect. Pablo looks like he's back to his normal standard of play again and that means he will likely win this match in straight sets.

Marius Copil to beat Fernando Verdasco at 2.35 with Unibet

Marius and indoor hardcourts in Europe is always a good combination, it's where he is the most dangerous and that performance in first round when he beat Stan is just enough for me to think he can beat Nando as well. Mirza Basic the last seasons Sofia winner is out but that's just because his form have been awful ever since he won that Sofia final. Marius who was runner up last season sits in a hole different situation because he is making progress and that's why he's winning matches like never before. Nando is a lefty but I think Marius can deal with that well enough to beat him and reach the quarterfinal. Nando is living a lot on his reputation nowadays and he isn't the player who reached the Aussie open semifinal many years ago. Now Nandos tournaments often ends with him going out before the quarterfinal. He doesn't have the same ability to win titles anymore and he is living on his routine in many matches but it's not enough to reach finals. I just can't help but thinking Marius wins this with his big serve that gets him out of danger many times. He finished his last match with saving a break point in the last game when he was serving for the match and nicely finished the match by serving two huge first serves. Nice value on Marius here so I'm all over it.

 

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Pierre-Hugues Herbert to beat Illia Ivashka at 1.40 with William Hill

Guido Pella to beat Albert Ramos at 1.52 with 888

I know I said that Bautista to win in Sofia would be my last bet but I like these two bets. This is a week to look for upsets (Goffin and Kachanov have lost today), especially for those players who played in the Davis Cup but I don’t expect any surprise with these two matches. Herbert is playing in his home country and destroyed Kudla in his first match here (6-1, 6-2). The reason is exactly the same for the other match, Pella is playing in his home country and destroyed Paolo Lorenzi in his first match (6-1, 6-3). His opponent is Albert Ramos, who is in a bad form and suffered a lot in his first match against Hugo Dellien (7-6, 4-6, 6-3). 

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Marcel Granollers to beat Denis Shapovalov at 3.50 with Unibet

Simple reasoning for this one. Marcel is in decent form as he won a challenger in Vietnam just before he went to Melbourne and Denis played Davis cup over the weekend and that could mean this is one match to many for him. Denis played well in Melbourne and his performance in Davis cup was flawless but I'm not gonna get carried away by that. Small stake on Marcel here.

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Marcos Baghdatis to beat Lucas Pouille in first set at 2.70 with Unibet

Simple reasoning here. They have met twice, once in 2014 on indoor hard in a challenger in France and then Marcos won first set but retired in second. And last season they met again in US open and Marcos won first set again but Lucas won 3-1. I see the same scenario happen again here. Marcos was alright yesterday and should fancy his chances tonight so Marcos to win first set at least.

Edited by four-leaf

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18 hours ago, MAGA_Trump said:

Pavel Kotov @ 1'86 at >Pinnacle Stake 1/10

Kotov won by 6-4 2-6 6-3

3 hours ago, aussietennisexpert said:

Lucas Pouille -1.5 games to beat Marcos Baghdatis at 1.50 with bet365

Feels like Pouille should pick up a relatively easy win here.

Still, knowing Pouille and the possibility for tie breaks I don't want to go too crazy on the handicap.

 

1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

Marcos Baghdatis to beat Lucas Pouille in first set at 2.70 with Unibet

Simple reasoning here. They have met twice, once in 2014 on indoor hard in a challenger in France and then Marcos won first set but retired in second. And last season they met again in US open and Marcos won first set again but Lucas won 3-1. I see the same scenario happen again here. Marcos was alright yesterday and should fancy his chances tonight so Marcos to win first set at least.

You're so brave to be with Baghdatis. Hope you'll be lucky today.

What do I think about it?

I don't know what will be the motivation of Pouille for an ATP250 tournament in his country.

But what about Baghdatis? I have a particular theory about him: he cannot play more than 3 games in a row in a good level. Maybe it's about his age (33), maybe for some other things.

Last year for example he was in 1/8 in Indian Wells but he retired before beggining the match and in Saint Brieuc Challenger he lost in Semifinals against Lestienne in 2 sets.

If I had to bet, I'll bet on the @aussietennisexpert . Anyway, good luck also to @four-leaf

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Honcova/Poznikhirenko to beat Kostic/Mihalikova at 1.90 with Bet365

Another opportunistic bet. Mihalikova is supposed to have Fed Cup duties to fulfill and she's losing in the singles as we speak, chances are that she's going to lose in the doubles as well. Not a guarantee, but it doesn't make any sense to have her team as the favourites. Note that there isn't all that much time before the match starts, only a couple of hours.

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9 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Honcova/Poznikhirenko to beat Kostic/Mihalikova at 1.90 with Bet365

Another opportunistic bet. Mihalikova is supposed to have Fed Cup duties to fulfill and she's losing in the singles as we speak, chances are that she's going to lose in the doubles as well. Not a guarantee, but it doesn't make any sense to have her team as the favourites. Note that there isn't all that much time before the match starts, only a couple of hours.

Tournament?

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Just so all you people know, Roberto Bautista Agut will eat Marton Fucsovics in Sofia tomorrow. No way Marton will have a chance in the quarterfinal. He was like an amateur from time to time last match, broken left and right. Just errors everywhere you could see Marton.

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I think Pouille is overrated here. Pouille has not played any match for the last two weeks and Baghdatis has won already 3 matches here. Wouldn’t be surprise if we have another upset here. Bautista did not play any match since the AO and he lost the first set against Ebden who played awfully in his first match here. Goffin did not play any match since the AO and he lost in straight sets against Krajinovic. These first matches for favorite players who have not played any match since 2 o 3 weeks and have to play against decent players who already have some wins here and are totally adapted to the courts are extremely dangerous for them. I also have to add at this list those players who come after playing recently 2 or 3 matches for his country in the Davis Cup (Khachanov), especially when that was on a different surface. It’s true that Pouille plays in his home country and that makes me think that he will be implicated but that’s not enough to give him these odds against a decent player who is totally adapted to these courts and has 3 wins here. Anyway, I can’t give a decent opinion about how the match will be because this week I only have watched some parts of the Tsonga/RBA matches.

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Fed Cup. Belgium: 1.80 - France: 1.97 (888)

The matches will be played in Liege (Belgium) and the surface is hard indoor.

France: Caroline Garcia, Cornet, Parmentier, Mladenovic, Fiona Ferro

Belgium: Elise Mertens, Van Uytvanck, Flipkens, Bonaventure.

Thoughts? I already have my own opinion about this one but I want to know your opinions to see if are the same than mine

Edited by darko08

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