Sir Puntalot

Boxing Tips: Jan/Feb/March 2019

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I hope we'll get odds for Germain vs. Claggett on Saturday in Canada. So far i can't see any book with a prize for that fight. I have the feeling they would/will make a big mistake but let's see.

On the other side i think Marrero is a tough matchup for Nyambayar. Marrero is awkward and has power and Nyambayar showed that he is vulnerable in his last two fights although he won them he was hurt badly.

Kownacki, Thurman and also Munguia should win their fights pretty easily although Kownacki vs Washington is a closer matchup than those other two fights obviously.

Rojas vs. Xu is another fight at the weekend where i believe we'll see a clear winner. Either Rojas via decision or he will knock the Chinese out.

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Adam Kownacki vs. Gerald Washington 

Under 7.5 rounds @ 2.690 Pinnacle 4/10

It's a 10 rounder so we need a stoppage till 1:30 in Round 7. Just for the record.

Washington is nearly 37 years old. He is solid but nothing special, lacking stamina, power and movement. And this is pretty much the whole story here. You need exactly those three things to keep Kownacki off:
1. The Pole has a sturdy chin and you only can keep him off if you've got the power to rock/hurt him. Even Charles Martin who is a big puncher couldn't do that with his power so i strongly doubt that Washington can do that.
2. You need a good stamina. You have to be there if Kownacki slows down after 6-7 rounds as he usually does.
3. And of course you need good legs (= good movement) to avoid the heavy pressure. Getting caught at the ropes is one of the ugliest things you can do vs. a pressure fighter like Kownacki.

Washington doesn't have those abilities. Especially Washingtons stamina is probably worse than Kownackis. He has a good jab but this isn't enough to keep a guy like Kownacki off. I agree Kownacki is overrated as fcuk but he should have enough to beat Washington comfortably who went life and death with Wesley Nofire in his last fight. Washington was gassing after three or four rounds. His inactivity recently isn't a good sign either. Washington is overrated due to winning a couple of rounds vs. Wilder in a hyper cautious fight at the beginning where Wilder needed a few rounds to figure out how to fight a guy who has almost the same size like himself because he only fought old shot slow small bums most of the time.

I think there is a pretty good chance that Washington will get stopped or quit early. Once he's feeling Kownackis pressure and power and slowing down with his movement i can see him falling apart like he did vs. Miller. 

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Patrick Day vs. Ismail Iliev

Patrick Day @ 2.4 5dimes 5/10

Let's be clear here...Illiev can't crack an egg with his punches, he is featherfisted and has a very boring style to fight. He NEVER knocked an opponent out in his whole career so far. Officially he scored three knockouts but one of them was a doctors stoppage due to a cut (vs. Villalba), another one was due to an injured opponent (vs. Salzmann) and the third one was more or less a corner stoppage (vs. Gulyakevich). Furthermore Iliev has a very boring style to fight, i think he is one of the most boring fighters who's fighting on a decent level in Europe and has some televised fights. I doubt he will impress the judges in America with his style + he has some attitudes which can lead to point deductions quickly as holding and he has no home advantage here so who knows.

On the other side Patrick Day is solid domestic level in the US. He beat some good opponents recently and is on a very solid streak of five straight wins by decision. His opposition was durable as i mentioned. He beat Elvin Ayala who is a durable journeymen. He beat Eric Walker who was in prison for 13 years but is a very solid boxer and beat for example one of Al Haymons top prospects Chris Pearson. Furthermore he has wins over Kyrone Davis (was a very good amateur) and Virgilijus Stapulionis. Day is a typical stylish american fighter: athletic body, fast hands and movement, explosiveness and obviously the solid amateur background you have if you grow up in those american boxing gyms.

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Cristian Rafael Coria vs. Joel Diaz Jr.

Cristian Rafael Coria ML @ 20.50 Sportbet 3/10

Coria is tough as nails, he has an iron chin and was never stopped in his seven losses and he fought some good opposition like Hiroki Okada, Daud Yordan, Custio Clayton or Paulus Moses. Although Coria isn't looking that heavy handed he dropped both Okada and Yordan so he might have above average power dropping that kind of opposition. Joel Diaz Jr. is still a prospect, very raw, he didn't fight for 16 months after getting knocked out by Regis Prograis and fought a 40yo glass chinned bum afterwards with 8 ko losses (out of 15) so no comparison to Coria at all. Coria is a living dog here and if he can bring the pressure to Diaz and maybe hurt him i can see Coria taking the fight, also on points.

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11 hours ago, opole said:

Cristian Rafael Coria vs. Joel Diaz Jr.

Cristian Rafael Coria ML @ 20.50 Sportbet 3/10

Coria is tough as nails, he has an iron chin and was never stopped in his seven losses and he fought some good opposition like Hiroki Okada, Daud Yordan, Custio Clayton or Paulus Moses. Although Coria isn't looking that heavy handed he dropped both Okada and Yordan so he might have above average power dropping that kind of opposition. Joel Diaz Jr. is still a prospect, very raw, he didn't fight for 16 months after getting knocked out by Regis Prograis and fought a 40yo glass chinned bum afterwards with 8 ko losses (out of 15) so no comparison to Coria at all. Coria is a living dog here and if he can bring the pressure to Diaz and maybe hurt him i can see Coria taking the fight, also on points.

Coria wins by KOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOo

BOOOOOOOOOOM

 

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Derrick Webster vs. Lennox Allen 

Lennox Allen wins by KO/TKO/DQ @ 12 William Hill 2/10

Allen is huge and he came in three pounds heavier than Webster. Allen looks like a LHW and Webster was beaten by a MW in the past. I think size matters here and i can see Allen grinding Webster down. Allen might be not that high but from the body composition i think this could be a huge mismatch. And Allen obviously has the power. 

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Felipe Romero vs. Steve Nelson

Over 2.5 rounds @ 2.4 22bet 5/10

Huge mistake by the books offering the 2.5 here. This is an 8 rounder. Romero is the first real test for Nelson and he was brought into that to give Nelson a couple of rounds and a decent test. Romero was Usyk's debut opponent and went 5 rounds with him. He also went 10 rounds with Masternak, 9 rounds with Leapai, 8 rounds with Bivol and 6 rounds with Glowacki. I know he was stopped in one round by Benavidez and Luis Garcia but he was caught cold and i doubt it'll happen again. Wouldn't be surprised if this goes the distance to be honest. Nelson has only stopped total bums so far. No doubt he'll win this but 2.5 rounds? No, i think the line should be at least 4.5...

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3 hours ago, opole said:

Felipe Romero vs. Steve Nelson

Over 2.5 rounds @ 2.4 22bet 5/10

Huge mistake by the books offering the 2.5 here. This is an 8 rounder. Romero is the first real test for Nelson and he was brought into that to give Nelson a couple of rounds and a decent test. Romero was Usyk's debut opponent and went 5 rounds with him. He also went 10 rounds with Masternak, 9 rounds with Leapai, 8 rounds with Bivol and 6 rounds with Glowacki. I know he was stopped in one round by Benavidez and Luis Garcia but he was caught cold and i doubt it'll happen again. Wouldn't be surprised if this goes the distance to be honest. Nelson has only stopped total bums so far. No doubt he'll win this but 2.5 rounds? No, i think the line should be at least 4.5...

already in the pocket, they are in round 4 now...EASYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY win

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Ivan Redkach vs. Tyrone Harris

Under 4.5 rounds @2.0 5dimes 4/10

Typical mismatch. Harris is a natural 130 pounder while Redkach is a natural 140 pounder and a big one. I doubt Harris can take the power at 140. He was stopped at 130/135 several times and now he's facing an awkward tricky southpaw with heavy hands. Furthermore Redkach came in 3 lb heavier than Harris, he might be much bigger & heavier comes fight night.

Edited by opole

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15 hours ago, opole said:

Ivan Redkach vs. Tyrone Harris

Under 4.5 rounds @2.0 5dimes 4/10

Typical mismatch. Harris is a natural 130 pounder while Redkach is a natural 140 pounder and a big one. I doubt Harris can take the power at 140. He was stopped at 130/135 several times and now he's facing an awkward tricky southpaw with heavy hands. Furthermore Redkach came in 3 lb heavier than Harris, he might be much bigger & heavier comes fight night.

Ukrainian Ivan Redkach (22-4-1, 17 KOs) made quick work of Tyrone Harris (26-14, 16 KOs) scoring a first round knockout in a scheduled eight-round welterweight match.

Nice work again, opole!

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