Hunter Chase - 3.45 Warwick

[Darran]

No Road To Rome this time although we do have the horse I thought was going to beat him at Taunton in Shantou Flyer. Now there is little point in me repeating what I wrote a couple of weeks ago on him and as much as this is a deeper race than Taunton he obviously is the one they all have to beat. The slight concern would be that he is having his first run of the season whilst his main rivals have had a start and obviously with Cheltenham the aim he is unlikely to be 100%, but even so if he is to have a chance at Cheltenham he really ought to be winning this. He also has to finish in the first 2 to get 1 of his 2 qualifying runs so they can't leave too much to work on.

Not many 11yo will have only had 18 runs but Hazel Hill has not seen the racecourse all that often over the years. Connections have taken things very slowly with him as well as they could easily have gone for Cheltenham last year although he ended up at Towcester the day before instead. He hacked up in both Hunter Chases last season at Towcester and the month before at Leicester, but this contest is in a different league to those two. I was at Chaddesley Corbett when he made his seasonal return last month and he bolted up in what was a pretty weak race as well. He has been well backed and for all of 2 minutes was available at 14/1, but take the first 1 off and you get his current price. Obviously a double figure quote was stupid and we don't truly know how good he is as this is by far his toughest test. He might prove himself up to it, but my quite big concern is his jumping. At Leicester he was on the whole pretty good, but Towcester he made a few errors and I didn't think he jumped all that well the last time. He also jumped out to his right so he might be better going the other way round. At a double figure price I certainly would have put him up as a bet, but I don't think 4/1 is value as his jumping will really be put to the test here.

I would imagine Brandon Hill has Aintree as his aim after finishing a superb 2nd off 130 in the Topham Chase last month. That run obviously gives him a chance here, but there is every chance he might have to top it to win this. He is likely to make the running and he is a great jumper so I can imagine that he will put plenty of these to the sword. He might not have enough at the end to beat Shantou Flyer if he is anywhere near his best, but you can easily see him hitting the frame.

I said above that not many 11yo have run just 18 times, but Cousin Pete has only run 14 times! Cousin Pete ran a fantastic race to finish 3rd in last year's Foxhunter at 66/1 and he put behind a disappointing 2017 when he wasn't right. In 2016 he won at Cheltenham on Hunter Chase night and I actually thought he could turn into a Foxhunter contender although I didn't think he had progressed enough to actually be capable of finishing as close as he did last year. It was a bit disappointing he was beaten at 1/3 at Barbury last month on his first run since Cheltenham, but the ground was pretty quick and I imagine that they would have looked after him that day. I suspect we will see a much better performance here and Warwick should suit him better than Market Rasen where he was beaten in a Hunter Chase last year. His handicap rating is actually 134 which is 1lb higher than Brandon Hill and crucially because his Hunter Chase win came in 2016 he doesn't have to carry a penalty in this. That means he gets weight from the 3 above him in the betting and his jockey takes off another 7lbs as well. 9/1 seems a very fair price to me especially as Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and Coral are going 4 places.

Double Ross ran a cracker to finish 4th in last season's Kim Muir and that gives him an obvious place chance in this, but he hasn't gone close to repeating that since and he is 13 now so I don't really fancy him here. 

Current connections paid £35k for Mr Mix and he won the Desert Orchid Silver Cup at Wincanton last season off 139 so that gives him a fair chance in this. On his pointing form this year though you wouldn't really fancy him as he has finished 3rd and 2nd in two points at Cottenham. What I will say though is Cottenham probably wouldn't really suit as it isn't much of a test so going up a little in trip would suit him more. I don't like him enough to want to back, but he I wouldn't be surprised if he ran a decent enough race.

Connetable is another ex-Nicholls horse and he finished 3rd in the Pertemps Final at The Festival last year. His new connections paid £50k for him at the sales which is looking rather pricey given his two runs for his new trainer as he has been stuffed twice in handicap chases at big prices. Maybe he can do better after another break, but this is a decent hunter chase and he isn't for me.

For his trainer's sake I hope Upswing runs better than his other Hunter Chase runner so far, but he is hard to fancy on what he was doing in his last 4 runs under Rules. Bally River Boy was put in pretty short given his Fontwell win came in a fairly weak race and he was a little lucky to win as a better jockey would have seen the 2nd win for me. He likes to get on with it as well and I find it hard to see him having the class to be good enough to see off Brandon Hill on that front. He bolted up at Ffos Las on his seasonal return in a Mixed Open last month, but it was Ffos Las heavy and not as strong a race as this. Net D'Ecosse has already had 3 point runs and the form he has shown is below what will be needed to win this, although he was 2nd to Irish Anthem at Clifton last month and that one is heading to the Foxhunter so maybe he won't be a completely lost cause. The rest look outclassed.

I think Shantou Flyer is the most likely winner, but he is priced up tight enough. I can see him drifting given most Maxwell runners do so he might hit a price worth backing him at during the day and if he does I will add to this post. Any value on Hazel Hill has long gone for me and I really worry about his jumping in a race like this in what is by far his biggest test. Brandon Hill has no worries on the jumping front and can give it a good go from the front. The horse though I think holds the best value at this stage is Cousin Pete given he gets weight from those 3. We know he has the class and I fully expect him to step up on his Barbury effort and if he shows the form he did to finish 3rd in the Foxhunter last year then he looks to have a great chance of hitting the frame at the very least. I might add more bets during the day tomorrow.

Cousin Pete 1pt e/w @ 9/1 with Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and Coral (all going 4 places)

 

[Lisa603]

I've already had an two small win bets  on Net D'Ecosse & Upswing 

 

But id be foolish not to have an ew bet on your selection Darran...you could be my saviour come 3.50pm

 

Good Luck tomorrow 

[Darran]

So Cousin Pete has been really well backed and is no longer an e/w price. I think the price is right now so I wouldn't want to back him at the current price if you haven't already got involved.

As mentioned in the preview I thought Shantou Flyer would drift and he has been. I was considering putting him up as a bet, but I instead I will put 3 small f/c bets up with him to win the race and either Cousin Pete, Hazel Hill or Brandon Hill to finish 2nd to him. I have the race between those 4 and although you a couple of the others could get involved I do think if Shantou Flyer does win one of those 3 will follow him home so it makes more sense to play the forecast rather than just a win bet.

Shantou Flyer to beat Cousin Pete 0.5pts f/c

Shantou Flyer to beat Hazel Hill 0.5pts f/c

Shantou Flyer to beat Brandon Hill 0.5pts

[Lisa603]

Cant win them all - Hereford on Wednesday ! looks another minefield. 

[Darran]

Wow what an impressive performance from Hazel Hill this afternoon. It was his biggest test to date and boy did he overcome it. He made a mockery of my concerns over his jumping as he jumped superbly and the way he came away from the rest of the field was impressive. Paddy's for some reason went 25s on him for Cheltenham after the race and not surprisingly it only last a little longer than their 14s on him to win today's race. He is now a best price of 12/1 for the Foxhunter. I wouldn't be wanting to take that at the moment. First of all as his lack of runs over the year's suggest he clearly isn't easy to keep sound. Also if it came up really testing I don't think it would suit him at all. He is one to consider though come the day for sure.

Now I am going to play devils advocate a bit here as you can pick holes in the form. Shantou Flyer clearly for whatever reason ran nowhere near to his best and it is going to be a tough ask to get him qualified for Cheltenham let alone him have any chance in the race. I find it hard to think he has regressed that much so maybe he wasn't fit or there was another issue. Mr Mix stayed on well for 2nd and as I said in the preview he improved for the step up in trip. He could do with a stiffer test, but he will surely find a winning chance at some point. 

Brendon Hill ran a cracker from the front, but you have to say that connections would have been better off running him at Hereford on Wednesday over a more suitable trip as he hasn't seen it out and paid let on for trying to go with the winner. Upswing was backed at very big odds and he ran a solid race although his profile is hardly a level of consistency. Cousin Pete ran a very strange race. He jumped poorly and at the open ditch on the straight going away from the stands on the final circuit I don't know how he didn't come to grief as he took off way too early. My feeling is he probably got out paced and needs a longer trip, but even so it was disappointing he was only 7th. I just wonder if the 4miler at Cheltenham's Hunter Chase night would be his ideal race.

So as you can see as strong a race as it looked on paper you can pick holes in the form of the race given how it panned out. Even so it was still a top effort from the winner and he more than deserves a crack at the Foxhunter.

I will be back tomorrow night for Hereford's race on Wednesday.