2019 Thyestes Handicap Chase - Tips & Trends (Thursday)

[BillyHills]

Big handicap on Thursday in Ireland

300 Gowran Park

3m1f Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase (Grade A) (5yo+)

How many runners will Gordon Elliott have? 

Previous Winners

 

Trends
10/10 Ran within 2 months
9/10 Rated 145 or less
8/10 Aged 8 or more
6/10 Carried less than 11st 5lbs
16/22 had won at 3m or more
18/22 had ran at least twice that season

*Interestingly 7 previous winners were placed last time out and also
7 previous winners failed to complete the course last time out!

 

 

[richard-westwood]

What an Interesting and difficult race to tackle .......such a puzzle .......the ratings have made it harder actually 

Total recall     313    20/1 

Sunos novios   308   25/1 

Polidam    306    33/1 

Solumn grundy    303 

Where do I start ......its possible solumn grundy might not even make it into race as 6th reserve and even then hes only 4th rated .....obviously the 2 that stand out are the Mullins horses total recall and polidam but both those have issues .....total recall only ran 4 days ago and trends suggest that's not enough to recover although that last run looked promising and had won atc3mile in past ....interesting trainer has left in so far ......polidam has patchy form ....looked promising in the Guinness and a reproduction of that gives him chances if he can last the extra distance ......I'll wait for final decs but in such a difficult race I think a couple of big priced e.w bets is the way to go 

[Tedthewolf]

On 1/20/2019 at 5:58 PM, BillyHills said:

Big handicap on Thursday in Ireland

300 Gowran Park

3m1f Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase (Grade A) (5yo+)

How many runners will Gordon Elliott have? 

A lot but probably not as many as Willie Mullins will have!

 

 

 

Edited January 22, 2019 by Tedthewolf

[richard-westwood]

It is crazy how many horses they will have combined ....potentially 60 % ......rated race through class and speed sheets and both have the same 2 horses in top 3 ....

Pleasant company 

General principle 

So that's threw a spanner in works as neither are in my normal ratings but general principle certainly although out of form ...fits the profile of the usual winner and has a fantastic racing weight .....and is Gordon elliot's.....certainly is shining out near bottom ....food for thought 

Edited January 23, 2019 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

Decided to stick with the majority....as meatloaf said 2 out of 3 ain't bad....

Pleasant company looks a little high in weights but has a high class rating and ew value so looks decent.....general principle will have to improve on recent form but has all the pieces ....right weight ....form at 3 mile ...unexposed ...good trainer so also looks good value .....3rd rated invitation only also must come into calculations as hes 2nd and 4th on 2 of 3 ratings so  no slouch but big price ew bets for me in an open race 

Pleasant company 5pts ew 25/1 betvictor

General principle 5pts ew 14/1 betvic

[BillyHills]

Final Card

 

10/10 Ran within 2 months
We lose Monbeg Notorius, Mall Dini, Up For Review, Ilseofhopesndreams, Bellow Mome

9/10 Rated 145 or less
We lose Aplha Des Obeaux, Pleasant Company, Invitation Only, Sumos Novios, Dounikos,
Pairofbrowneyes, Valseur Lido, 

8/10 Aged 8 or more
We lose Nick Lost

14/22 Placed or Failed to complete last time out
We lose Polidam, General Principle, Out Sam, Borice, Mr Diablo, Woods Well

Selections
1pt EW Some Neck 10/1 BetVictor (5 places)
1pt EW Goulane Chosen 33/1 Paddy Power (first 6)
*Goulane Chosen is the 1st reserve.
 

[Tedthewolf]

I have just taken 20/1  1/5 6 places  on french import BORICE i think this horse will be gambled on . Made its Irish debut in the paddy power wacked the first fence and that was that was on good ground which is no use to this horse also. Has a nice weight in this will get its toe in with the soft ground  much better than debut and will be horse to keep an eye on imo Elliort hasnt bought this horse from France for the fun of it!

Edited January 23, 2019 by Tedthewolf

[Trotter]

I'm looking at this one in a slightly unusual way ……. I've taken out all the Elliott and Mullins runners 

The theory is that if they had one or maybe two that they were really confident about they wouldn't run 6 or more horses , they'd save those other horses for other races in the next few weeks. Because they have 6 and 8 runners I'm reading that as meaning they're not confident that they have a potential winner

Only left with 4

Valseur Lido seems to be on the downgrade now

Sumos Novios is 11 now and needs a handicap career best. Might be better at under 3 miles, though has won at the trip

Leaves me with two

Mr Diablo EW 20/1

Mall Dini EW 12/1

 

[Tedthewolf]

1 hour ago, Trotter said:

I'm looking at this one in a slightly unusual way ……. I've taken out all the Elliott and Mullins runners 

The theory is that if they had one or maybe two that they were really confident about they wouldn't run 6 or more horses , they'd save those other horses for other races in the next few weeks. Because they have 6 and 8 runners I'm reading that as meaning they're not confident that they have a potential winner

Only left with 4

Valseur Lido seems to be on the downgrade now

Sumos Novios is 11 now and needs a handicap career best. Might be better at under 3 miles, though has won at the trip

Leaves me with two

Mr Diablo EW 20/1

Mall Dini EW 12/1

Dont  know where you got 20/1 on Mr Diablo Trott but if i could get that id be all over it e/w as it would be my second pick in the race!

 

[Trotter]

I thought I got it from the Racing Post racecrad but obviously not ……. must have been looking at the wrong horse

It's 12/1 now ……. bet365 ….. so I'll take that for the purpose of the thread

Mr Diablo EW 12/1

Mall Dini EW 12/1

 

[Tedthewolf]

lol i was ready to book a taxi to your local bookie Trott mate

[Trotter]

I think a taxi to the cash machine might be more in order after the race !

As for my theory...……. Elliott and Mullins horses finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th

Back to the drawing board on that one !