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CzechPunter

Australian Open 2019

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1 hour ago, Hermes said:

Raonic is playing a solid top 5 tennis now.The match against Wawrinka is a statement.Despite this feat he seems very unfased and focussed in this moment.Taking him to beat Pierre Hughes Herbert.I'd be suprised if he lost this.In fact I'd go to say it would be the biggest uset of the tournament so far if he does.Coric to beat Krajinovic.I would also take Cilic to beat Verdasco.

Raonic was struggling at the end with an injury. I'd be very cautious in backing him any further.

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Johanna Konta to beat Garbine Muguruza at 2.65 with Betsson

No upsets at all on the womens side today so here should be a quite good chance of the first and only upset of the day. Just a probability bet and it's 2-0 in the head-to-head for Johanna who beat Garbine on grass in Eastbourne and US open in 2015. I think we'll see an upset here.

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5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Lucas Pouille to beat Alexei Popyrin at 1.52 with Pinnacle

Looks like an overreaction to me. Pouille isn't going to be as bad as Thiem and I still don't like Popyrin for all kinds of reasons. The crowd can carry him to a set, but Pouille should take the match in the end.

Popyrin +4 Game Spread 2.06 Pinny

Pouille hasn't been the same since the end of last years hard court season. He's amassed 100 UFE this tournament already. Could be a recipe for another upset imo.

Fritz +6.5 Game Spread 2.01 Pinny

 

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T.Fritz (+2.5) to beat Federer at 2.63 with Pinnacle

I see big value here .Fritz have very good form . He beat Norrie in straitght sets and 3:1 Monfils :0 . Federer have problems in last game against Evans and in my opinion he should have bigger problems with a Fritz . In h2h they plays ones in 2016 and then Federer won only 2:1 (on grass).

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Roberto Bautista to beat Khachanov at 2.66 with Pinnacle

I really don`t understand why is 2.66 on Bautista .. I know he had problems in last 2 games but he played against Millman and Murray .. Before AO he beat Wawrinka,Berdych and Djokovic! I believe to he can get higher in this tournament . He won 2/3 matchs against Khachanov so I see another value in this tip . 

Edited by Rypcio

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7 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Lucas Pouille to beat Alexei Popyrin at 1.52 with Pinnacle

Looks like an overreaction to me. Pouille isn't going to be as bad as Thiem and I still don't like Popyrin for all kinds of reasons. The crowd can carry him to a set, but Pouille should take the match in the end.

I like your bet a lot here. can you please tell me who you think has the better chance between Taylor Fritz and shapavolov.. All the best

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1 hour ago, Rypcio said:

T.Fritz (+2.5) to beat Federer at 2.63 with Pinnacle

I see big value here .Fritz have very good form . He beat Norrie in straitght sets and 3:1 Monfils :0 . Federer have problems in last game against Evans and in my opinion he should have bigger problems with a Fritz . In h2h they plays ones in 2016 and then Federer won only 2:1 (on grass).

Even though Monfils cruised easily past Dzumhur he was clearly suffering Vs Fritz.For a guy known for his athletism you could clearly see he was suffering last two sets.Ankle injuries.Not discounting Fritz I think he's a player on the up but I think Roger might be too much for him..Monfils could beat Fritz on Wednesday but I don't think Roger will take him easily.

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Forewarn. There is a good chance I'm due to hit something because I've been on a massive losing streak since Atp World Tour Finals

36-73 +18.02 units(All picks are valued at one unit risked) 

Taylor Fritz to beat Roger Federer@ 11/1 with William Hill

Molcahnov/Zelenay to beat Herbert/Mahut@ 5.5 with 5dimes

Adamczak/Moore to beat Krejcikova/Siniakova@ 6 with 5dimes

Sevastova 1.71, Svitolina 1.23, Nishikori 1.12, Klepac/Martinez Sanchez 1.41, Peschke/Melichar 1.33 parlay 5dimes@ 4.42 

Fair plays.. I'll do some analysis again when my picks start winning 

 

 

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Tomas Berdych to beat (-2.5 sets) Diego Schwartzman at 2.38 with Unibet

Tomas is playing the best tennis he can play right now on this surface. Diego had all to mutch trouble in last round to be able to have chance in this match. I doubt he'll have enough for a set when he's dropping his serve constantly to a guy like Denis Kudla. He was cruising last match until he started making silly errors left and right and allowed Denis Kudla back in to the match. Tomas will punish Diego for any sort of errors he makes. Tomas is in that kind of form right now and I don't see him dropping a set on hardcourt against a guy like Diego when he's in this sort of form.

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Cilic (-1.5) to beat Verdasco

Berdych to beat Schwartzman

(10/11 for the double at Unibet)

 

I fancy Cilic strongly here. The h2h is 9-5 in Marin's favour, but most of the Spaniard's wins came early in his career. Verdasco hasn't beaten Cilic for 3 and half years now. Verdasco is of course 5 years older and at 35 this tends to make more of a difference. Cilic is used to going deep in slams and was of course the finalist here last year. Its a tournament and a surface he loves and I expect him to go on to meet Federer in the quarter final.

Berdych looks to be rediscovering some form at just the right time and is always a dangerous player on these quicker surfaces. I like Schwartzman quite a lot, as a player, he's a good tactician and he is a fighter. But I just think he struggles sometimes against the bigger hitters and Berdych definitely comes into that category.

I like this double and at a shade under Evens I think its fair value. 

 

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Federer + dimitrov bet365 @ 1.6

Big stake.

 

not much to say Tsitsipas has been “fighting” to make it there every round 4 sets with huge drops of focus

federer has already beaten him at Hopman cup.. I feel like it will be even easier this time

not sure how Seppi managed to lose to Tiafoe Feels like Tiafoe makes way too many unforced errors and has only a few good shots in between feels like dimitrov should straight sets him

also Tiafoe has only taken one set in 2 matches .

odds are probably going to drop imo

Edited by aussietennisexpert

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Mixed Doubles

S. Zhang/J. Peers -1.5 sets @ 2.25 Sbobet 4/10

Usually don't like those mixed doubles events as it's more a exo than a real tournament if women and men sharing a tennis court BUT i like this one as Fucsovics on the other side looked injured vs. Coric, took a medical timeout there and wasn't able to play near 100% there. I doubt he is going all in here.

Zhang and Peers already played three slams together in mixed doubles in 2018 and they won 5 of their 8 matches reaching the semifinal of the US Open finally. They should win this quite comfortably i think.

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Rafael Nadal (-5) to beat Tomas Berdych at 1.85 with Marathon

I watched both today and I can't see Berdych doing much even in his current form. The mental handicap is still going to be there most likely and Nadal's somewhat improved serve should be crucial in making the Czech suffer.

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Joao Sousa vs Kei Nishikori

They have played twice against each other, with one win per side. Both have had long matches in this tournament, but i consider Nishikori has been more convincing during his wins, besides he recently won an ATP tiyle which helps him to feel more confidence. the odds for the ML are awful, so i'm taking the handicap Nishikori -6 @1.735 in Pinnacle

Btw, nice to be back! :ok

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8 minutes ago, Uriel18 said:

Joao Sousa vs Kei Nishikori

They have played twice against each other, with one win per side. Both have had long matches in this tournament, but i consider Nishikori has been more convincing during his wins, besides he recently won an ATP tiyle which helps him to feel more confidence. the odds for the ML are awful, so i'm taking the handicap Nishikori -6 @1.735 in Pinnacle

Btw, nice to be back! :ok

Did you actually watch the matches? No offense, i also think Nishikori should pull this off and win vs. Sousa BUT Nishikori looked horrible. How can you write that Nishikori was more convincing than Sousa? Sousa played 2times better than Nishikori in both of his matches. Nishikori was outpointed by Karlovic from time to times and i do not talking about the serve or something. Nishikori was absymal vs. Majchrzak and didn't look good vs. Karlovic either. I would not touch this handicap with one hand right now. Sousa also has a very awkward style and also uses a lot of slices like Karlovic and Nishikori had many problems to handle the slice. 

The H2H is irrelevant as one win for Sousa was a retirement by Nishikori by the way. 1-1 sounds so even considering Sousa never won a set vs. Nishikori. Still, i doubt this is serious value. I would consider taking the over here instead of -6 at worse odds.

Sousa looked pretty good so far and beat two very good players (Kohli, Pella). Was very impressed by the serve of Sousa which worked really well under those conditions.

Anyway...good luck but i can only stay away from that match. Everything can happen but if everything goes his way sousa should have pretty decent chance to win at least one set here.

Edited by opole

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18 hours ago, Rypcio said:

Roberto Bautista to beat Khachanov at 2.66 with Pinnacle

I really don`t understand why is 2.66 on Bautista .. I know he had problems in last 2 games but he played against Millman and Murray .. Before AO he beat Wawrinka,Berdych and Djokovic! I believe to he can get higher in this tournament . He won 2/3 matchs against Khachanov so I see another value in this tip . 

3:0 for Bautista ,so I have right 

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