Australian Open 2019

[CzechPunter]

[four-leaf]

Australian Open progress by player

Casper Ruud to qualify and lose in the first round at 3.50 with Unibet Redbet 888sport

Casper hasn't improved for me more than making the qualification and going out in first round. Based on what I saw from him in the US challenger tournaments on hardcourt late last season he shouldn't have any problems qualifying but reaching the second round might be tough.

[CzechPunter]

Draws just out! https://ausopen.com/draws

[DrO]

RBA - Murray
Edmund - Berdych
Kyrgios - Raonic

Very intriguing matches of R1

[opole]

Some good bets coming up. This is indeed looking like an interesting draw.

[CzechPunter]

Tomas Berdych to beat Kyle Edmund at 1.72 with Bet365

I can't see Edmund repeating his last year's run and he's been handed a very tough R1 draw in the form of Berdych, who surprised everyone in the first week by almost winning his comeback tournament. The Aussie Open has always been kind to the Czech, he's in a really good form, and Edmund might be suffering from some health issues if the rumors are true.

[opole]

To everyone: The deciding tiebreak at the AO in the fifth set at 6-6 will be played to 10. New rule.

[aussietennisexpert]

After seeing her match today against Kerber Kvitova at 17 to win outright looks like a good bet. Although Kerber did look a bit tired 

[CzechPunter]

Melbourne has always been too hot for Kvitova - and she's never willing to skip the preceding tournaments either. I wish you luck though.

[opole]

James Duckworth @ 18.27 Pinnacle 1/10

No idea what's wrong with Nadal actually, pulling out of the second match in Abu Dhabi, pulling out of Brisbane too, then playing some usless Fast 4 tennis in singles and doubles. Rafa might be ready to compete but still he has almost no match experience AND we all do not know if the leg is ready for three or even four or five sets. Duckworth had some bad luck vs Fucsovics and he played well vs. Murray too but made too many errors in the end. I mean there is only a small chance he's gonna beat Nadal in a best of five but it might be the situation if it can happen then next week. 

[opole]

Damir Dzumhur @ 3.14 Pinnacle 5/10

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/tennis/109780029/gael-monfils-withdraws-from-asb-classic-for-a-third-time

Monfils had to pull out of Auckland because of a quadriceps injury. 

Dzumhur is a tough matchup although the Bosnian wasn't looking good so far in 2019 i think we'll see a different Dzumhur at the first Slam as he is a typcial guy who is playing his best tennis at the biggest tournaments. It also very unlucky to play the first match of the new season vs. Djokovic. Dzumhur looked pretty good in Melbourne in the past, he reached the third round in 2018 and 2014, and beat Edmund in 2016 while losing to Goffin in four sets afterwards. Dzumhur is still a Top 50 player and a grinder, he will let Monfils run a lot and i think this is one of the worst matchups Monfils can have in the first round of a Slam at the new season withoung having any match practice.

[opole]

Mischa Zverev @ 2.52 Pinnacle 4/10

Odds on Popyrin are a joke. Mischa Zverev had a very rough 2018 season but i expect him to do much better in 2019 as he had a very good prep and was focusing 100% on Melbourne to have the best possible shape. He is already in Australia for almost two weeks as he was preparing alongside Alex Zverev at the Hopman Cup and travelled to Melbourne early this week. Popyrin is still very young and his opening matches in 2018 showed that. He was blasted out of the court by de Minaur and wasted three set points vs Klizan in the first and was almost out in the second while being 0-3 down there but came back and nearly won from being 0-5 down in the deciding tiebreaker. Very, very shaky. Zverev is a very bad matchup as he gives Popyrin no rythm at all with his slices and serve & volley AND he is a lefty nad Popyrins backhand is a weakness. I think Zverev has  good chance here, he had a very good run in Melbourne two years ago beating Murray and Isner and the courts suiting his chip and charge style relatively well.

[CzechPunter]

Milos Raonic to beat Nick Kyrgios at 1.80 with Pinnacle

Kyrgios is being hyped up for no reason here imo, his first appearances in 2019 were really poor, while Raonic was showing glimpses of good form. Against Harrison, Kyrgios won through serve alone and then lost easily against Chardy once his big serves stopped working.

[opole]

Matteo Berrettini @ 3.56 Pinnacle 4/10

I actually do rate Berrettini as high as Tsitsipas in terms of pure talent and skills. I think the Italian can go the same way as Tsitsipas in the last season although he is two years older. Berrettini is quite similar to Tsitsipas, both are hard hitting ball striker with huge serve and offensive ground game. They met at the 2017 US open qualifiying and Berrettini lost in three sets while all three sets went to the tiebreak and i expect another tight outcome here, maybe a lot of tiebreakers. This is a Best of five match and i can't see Tsitsipas winning this easily as he looked vulnerable recently, Seppi outplayed him from the baseline and he was also making too many errors. 

[opole]

Pablo Cuevas @ 3.25 Pinnacle 4/10

Malek Jaziri @ 3.04 Pinnacle 3/10

Feliciano Lopez @ 2.969 Pinnacle 4/10

Matthew Ebden @ 2.53 Pinnacle 4/10

I'll write some additional words about those bets later on but i think all of them are living dogs in their matches.

 

[Torque]

3 hours ago, opole said:

Pablo Cuevas @ 3.25 Pinnacle 4/10

Malek Jaziri @ 3.04 Pinnacle 3/10

Feliciano Lopez @ 2.969 Pinnacle 4/10

Matthew Ebden @ 2.53 Pinnacle 4/10

I'll write some additional words about those bets later on but i think all of them are living dogs in their matches.

 

Good luck with those opole - you're a braver man than me. Cuevas and Ebden look in poor form, although admittedly it's very early in the season and Feliciano hasn't played properly since last season. I guess that's factored into the pricing but I wouldn't be rushing to back them regardless. I like your thinking about opposing Monfils, Popyrin and Tsitsipas and also Nadal, although with the latter I'd probably take something safer like set overs or Duckworth on a plus. Just my two cents 

[Grass Cash]

28-44 +30.37 units 

Australian Open Round 1 (Hope to turn a small profit, use as reference. Second set of matches will be generic lines taken from an odds site.  They will be available on various books shortly but i'm heading out of town. gday folks !  All Plays is one unit each

Sportsbook: 5dimes

Opelka 2.8
Alex Bolt 3.4
Polmans 3.75
Mannarino 7.5
Tipsarevic 12.0
Del Bonis 4.6
Gojowczyk 6.3
Klizan 3.75
Mcdonald 2.6
Tomic 4.55
Paire 3.9
Siegemund 3.8
Ferro 7.63
Kozlova 3.2
Barthel 5.05
Arraubarena Vecino 5.4
Aiava 4.4
Sorribes Tormo 5.25
Riske 3.85

Andujar 6.23
Jakupovic 5.4
Krueger 29.1(pinnacle)
Haddad Maia 1.9(5dimes)
Pablo Cuevas 2.9
Majchrzak 12.51(pinnacle)
Vanni 3.99
Schmiedlova 4.25(5dimes)
Kalinskaya 4.83
Krajinovic 1.9(5dimes)
Christian Garin 6.54
Whitney Osuigwe 3.79(pinnacle)
 

 

 

Edited January 11, 2019 by money44
Thought entire draw was reviewed before

[opole]

5 hours ago, Torque said:

Good luck with those opole - you're a braver man than me. Cuevas and Ebden look in poor form, although admittedly it's very early in the season and Feliciano hasn't played properly since last season. I guess that's factored into the pricing but I wouldn't be rushing to back them regardless. I like your thinking about opposing Monfils, Popyrin and Tsitsipas and also Nadal, although with the latter I'd probably take something safer like set overs or Duckworth on a plus. Just my two cents 

You're absolutely right mate, on the paper i fully agree that probably most of those odds looking correct but i think we have a good chance to go out with a decent plus here.

Ebden is always underrated in my opinion, we all forget about the fact he is still a Top 50 player and was ranked #39 in the world a couple of months ago. I watched three matches of him this year and i think his form is decent enough to beat Struff who is always a hot & cold player. I watched all his matches in Auckland this week more or less and i can't say i am impressed. Vs. Djere he looked poor, came back from being 2-5 down in the first set winning the tiebreaker from being 3-5 down and then Djere retired after he got broken in the second set. It was a very weak level of play. Ebden on the other side looked in good shape but had some issues with his serve in Perth but looked much better in Sydney this week, i know he lost to Andreozzi but i would not overrate that at all. Andreozzi is a completly different matchup compared to Struff, Ebden likes those hard hitting opponent and big servers. On the other side he definitely has some issues with the likes of Ferrer, Andreozzi, Fognini, Simon and so on. I would consider that as a 50/50 match with a small advantage for Ebden who's playing at home. 

The thing about Cuevas vs. Lajovic is simple: I do not rate Lajovic as a player who can trouble Cuevas from the baseline as Lajovic hasn't a weapon in his game to push Cuevas and dictate the play. Cuevas looking good vs. Klahn, then looking bad vs. Humbert but let's face the truth...a guy like him at his age is focusing on the bigger events and tournaments to make money. Lajovic on the other side is in pretty weak form although he won two matches in Doha i think he looked poor there, especially on serve. Broken a dozen times, he already was broken 12 times in four matches. Cuevas beat him on clay three years ago, probably not that important as it was three years ago and on clay obviously BUT i think Cuevas is a very bad matchup for Lajovic as Cuevas is a guy who also likes long rallies and you can't frustrate him with that. In my opinion Lajovic is one of the most overrated Top 50 players these days, i he can lose literally to anyone in Top 100 and i do rate Cuevas despite age, form and ranking as a very dangerous player who should have won more titels in his career than he won. Cuevas is better on hardcourt than his record suggests. For me this is an equal matchup where i like Cuevas as he has the better serve and Lajovic struggled a lot with holding serve recently.

Jaziri is a pure value bet as the odds are based 100% on his retirement in Sydney vs. Querrey. Officially it was "knee pain" but i doubt he is seriously injured or something, he was 16 14 down outpowered by Querreys crafty strokes and serves and he looked really frustrated + he looked off like he has a jetlag or something, maybe the journey from Pune to Sydney was too much as he only had two days in Australia. I expect him to do much better vs. Ivashka. Ivashka is dangerous with his power but let's be clear: If Jaziri is fully fit he should be the favorite...

Last one is Feli Lopez. I am not sure if Lopez is a good bet at all but it's definitely value. Lopez just announced he will marry some new women in his life soon, i do not know if that's the reason why he didn't play a match yet in 2019 BUT he is in Australia for some time now and preparing for the AO. Lopez and his game style is awkward as **** and i can see a guy like Thompson having massive problems with that. Those serve & volley style and slices all over the place are tough to handle for a guy who is one-dimensional like Thompson. I can remember Thompson failing a lot of times at the Open as he was too nervous and i can say if he is Lopez will take advantage of the fact. Thompson has a weak record in Melbourne, last year he lost as a massive favorite to Nicolas Kicker and i can see the same thing happen again.

[darko08]

There a lot of bets for the 1st round and I like them so I just will be looking for some upset in the women draw and follow your predictions

Alison Riske to beat Kiki Bertens at 4.00 with William Hill

Alison did so well in the last tournament in Shenzen, winning against Qiang Wang (6-3, 6-3), Rodina (4-6, 6-2, 6-3), Cirstea (7-5, 6-1) and Zvonariova (6-0, 1-0). She lost in the final against Sabalenka but took a set from her and could won that match in straight sets (6-4, 6-7, 3-6). I know I have said this several times here but Kiki is usually overrated by the bookies (in this surface she’s not as good as she is in claycourts). Kiki is the favourite obviously but I think Alison has real chances.

[opole]

Two more additional thoughts:
Both Chung and Shapovalov looked HORRIBLE in Auckland this week and both are massive favorites in their matches. I am thinking about going against them as it wasn't a bad day or something, it was just a poor level of play. Shapovalov did almost 1000 unforced errors vs Sousa and Andujar is a very solid baseline grinder with good defense, maybe lacking stamina for a long 4 or 5 set marathon. Chung losing to Statham from being 5-1 up in the first set was probably one of the biggest surprises we got to see in 2019. Chung was looking completly out of form and lacking confidence in his game. He looked awful. Klahn could be decent enough to beat him. 

And another information: Andy Murray announced his retirement from professional tennis after Wimbledon 2019.

Edited January 11, 2019 by opole

[Grass Cash]

@opole I really don't agree that Ebden is underrated.. If anything .. I think he might be a bit overrated.. be careful with him .. I like the Aussies that I have on my card, and I think one of the male player wins for sure... all of them is atleast odds 3.

[South_African_Punter]

37 minutes ago, darko08 said:

37 minutes ago, darko08 said:

There a lot of bets for the 1st round and I like them so I just will be looking for some upset in the women draw and follow your predictions

Alison Riske to beat Kiki Bertens at 4.00 with William Hill

Alison did so well in the last tournament in Shenzen, winning against Qiang Wang (6-3, 6-3), Rodina (4-6, 6-2, 6-3), Cirstea (7-5, 6-1) and Zvonariova (6-0, 1-0). She lost in the final against Sabalenka but took a set from her and could won that match in straight sets (6-4, 6-7, 3-6). I know I have said this several times here but Kiki is usually overrated by the bookies (in this surface she’s not as good as she is in claycourts). Kiki is the favourite obviously but I think Alison has real chances.

 

Kiki has improved her hardcourt game, certainly at the back end of last year. She's not simply good on clay anymore, and she's started off quite decently this year. Remember she won against Halep in a hardcourt Masters final last year, if I remember correctly.

Edited January 11, 2019 by South_African_Punter

[opole]

20 minutes ago, money44 said:

@opole I really don't agree that Ebden is underrated.. If anything .. I think he might be a bit overrated.. be careful with him .. I like the Aussies that I have on my card, and I think one of the male player wins for sure... all of them is atleast odds 3.

I do not agree here at this point. Polmans is a bum, no idea why he got the WC but Kudla should beat him comfortably especially as he looked in good shape recently. Fair odds for me around 5 or 6. Bolt on the other side is clearly struggling recently, no idea if he is injured or something but his performances were poor, i am quite a fan of Bolt and his aggressive style but he isn't in good shape. No idea what Sock will bring to the table but if he is fit and prepared well then he should beat him. And Cilic is one of my dark horses to win the whole thing, can't see him losing to Tomic here in the first round. Tomic is a joke these days and had no preperation at all because of an injury.

And i like Ebden and i rate him as a very skilled player with good variety while Struff is a inconsistent ballbasher who relates on his serve most of the time. If it doesn't work he is in a world full of trouble.

Edited January 11, 2019 by opole

[darko08]

20 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

Kiki has improved her hardcourt game, certainly at the back end of last year. She's not simply good on clay anymore, and she's started off quite decently this year. Remember she won against Halep in a hardcourt Masters final last year, if I remember correctly.

Yeah, in Cincinnati. She has improved her hardcourt game but giving her 1.25 against a good harcdcourt player as Alison i think is exaggerated.

[Grass Cash]

I entered all of my plays in a hurry because I’m leaving for vacation and I didn’t realize that all of the Betting lines were not released. Sorry guys but I am going to modify my initial card and there will be some additions but no removal’s

[CzechPunter]

I'm on the side of Ebden being overrated, a poor man's Isner let's say, although with some small pluses. I was thinking about opposing Shapovalov as well and I really liked Andujar in the past, but seeing him fail twice at the start of the season in a not-so-great way isn't a great sign, he didn't stand much of a chance against Opelka and there was also that TB choke if I'm correct. I might very well end up backing him to win a set or something and I'd be all over it with some better performances, but the worry that I have is that he might easily be there just to collect the paycheck. If he wins set one, he could be really competitive and even win maybe, but an effortless 3-0 could be on the cards as well.

[Grass Cash]

I'm not sold on Shapavolov either .. I'm probably go against him .. updating card now with additional matches not seen 

[opole]

14 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

I'm on the side of Ebden being overrated, a poor man's Isner let's say, although with some small pluses. I was thinking about opposing Shapovalov as well and I really liked Andujar in the past, but seeing him fail twice at the start of the season in a not-so-great way isn't a great sign, he didn't stand much of a chance against Opelka and there was also that TB choke if I'm correct. I might very well end up backing him to win a set or something and I'd be all over it with some better performances, but the worry that I have is that he might easily be there just to collect the paycheck. If he wins set one, he could be really competitive and even win maybe, but an effortless 3-0 could be on the cards as well.

What? A poor mans Isner? This would be the last comparison i would have made haha. Ebden is playing with so much variety. He has a good backhand, solid serve, great net game as he is a very skilled doubles player and he knows how to change pace. A thing that is not very common in 2018/2019 while almost all youngsters trying to hit as hard as they can (maybe de Minaur is a good example for not doing that). Ebden is probably one of those guys who underachieved big as he was plagued by several injuries during the past and in his prime. Of course he is no elite athlete and no Top 20 player or something but his game style is definitely underrated, as he is more exciting and more dangerous than most think if they only take a look at his results.

And i agree. Andujar is probably the best example for betting on the set handicap. I think we might get a good prize for +2.5 sets and in the end i expect Shapovalov going through but having some problems, probably in four sets. 

Edited January 11, 2019 by opole

[CzechPunter]

He definitely has more variety than Isner, there's no doubt about that, but he's much less resilient mentally imo. Yep, there's a good price on +2.5 sets/Over 3.5 sets, but boy am I scared about that Opelka result.

[opole]

Just now, CzechPunter said:

He definitely has more variety than Isner, there's no doubt about that, but he's much less resilient mentally imo. Yep, there's a good price on +2.5 sets/Over 3.5 sets, but boy am I scared about that Opelka result.

I am too, the reason why i took nothing yet BUT i think we can't compare those two tournaments. He came straight from Pune, late arrival in Sydney and now he had some time there and is playing a big tournament where one or two wins can guarantee an income he won't make in ten tournaments like Sydney. The match vs. Donskoy in Sydney was good though, if he plays like that he should win a set at least, Shapovalov is in awful form, he looked horrible vs. Sousa, spraying erros left and right.