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Does anyone have the slightest idea what mathematical concept is behind odds in in-play basketball?

I mean is there a distribution or something to use, as someone could use poisson in football (with time, decaying goal expectancies over time etc)?

 

Even though basketball seams to follow a normal distribution, I don't know what to do with negative values (points cannot be negative).

if I model point differences (hence allow negative values) I cannot model the total points rather than the margin of victories, handicaps only...

 

any idea?

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