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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - January 14 - February 3

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Aryna Sabalenka to beat Alison Van Uytvanck at 1.55 with betfair

Alison started the year with an injury in her first match in Auckland. She won in Hobart against Brengle (7-6, 7-5) but then lost in the next round against Schmiedlova (6-3, 6-2) and lost in the first round of the AO against Wozniacki (6-3, 6-4) so she has not started well this year. She has win against Flipkens (6-2, 6-4) in the first round here. Sabalenka started the year by the best way, winning in Shenzen. She won there against Tatjana Maria, Alexandrova, Sharapova, Yafan Wang and Riske. She lost in Sydney against the winner of the tournament: Kvitova and was surprised by Anisimova in the AO after her wins against Boulter and Kalinskaya.

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On 30/01/2019 at 8:07 AM, CzechPunter said:

Dudi Sela to beat Pedro Martinez Portero at 1.67 with William Hill

I'm not sure how much damage Sela will be able to do on the main tour from now on, but it's clear that he still has what it takes to win some Challenger matches. Starting the season late, he won the doubles last week after losing against Majchrzak in three sets in the singles, which is a result that nobody can blame him for given how well that guy was playing against Nishikori. Portero doesn't look like a big threat to me and I'd have the odds at the 1.40 mark here.

Retired at 5-1 in the second omgggg

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Yeah, picked the wrong bookie there :\.

Roy Smith (+4.5) to beat Darian King at 1.74 with Pinnacle

Following you guys in Cleveland, the handicap looks a touch high even given that this is indoors and that it shouldn't be too hard for Smith to hold serve. The outright win is certainly playable as well though, so good luck to us!

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It may seem close with that result from Houston last season but I think Roy looks to have pretty good controll of what his doing and it's probably not a coincidence that he beat Donald Young also. Odds have started to drop a little on Roy now.

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Vera Zvonareva to beat Darya Kasatkina at 2.12 with Unibet

Aryna Sabalenka to beat Ekateryna Alexandrova 2-0 at 1.86 with Unibet

Going against Kasatkina once again, she's still to get going and has no match practice going into this, while Zvonareva looked good in the second part of her previous match. It's mainly a bet against Kasatkina though. The other bet is very much for Sabalenka, on the other hand, as she's playing well again and and she's a level above Alexandrova in nearly every single respect. I didn't watch Alexandrova today, but she could've easily lost against Boulter in the previous round had Boulter not been such a headcase.

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Donna Vekic to beat Petra Kvitova at 4.00 with bet365

I expect Petra to run out of steam here as she's playing for the fourth straight week and now on a different continent having to travel from Melbourne to St. Petersburg. Donna is not as forgiving as Vika was in the last round and she's defenitiely in decent form or whatever form you can expect from Donna to have nowadays and she's good enough to take advantage of any fatigue that Petra has. Same thing happened last season in St. Petersburg when Caroline Wozniacki came from Melbourne after winning AO as she won her first match but went out to Daria Kasatkina in the match after. Highly likely that Petra should start feeling some fatigue and finally get knocked out before the final of a tournament again after reaching two successive finals down under. Petra wins this match probably if she's 100% but chances are she's not gonna be 100% this time.

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Donna Vekic (+4.5 Games) to beat Petra Kvitova at 1.98 with 888

I was preparing the explication for this one but there is no need to do it because four-leaf has done it in his post. The fatigue from Kvitova after a lot of matches played and the good form from Vekic are the main reasons.

I watched Alexandrova and she had some kind of problem/pain during the match. I don’t know what she had exactly but she and her coach looked a little bit worried. During the second set looks like their plan was “go on and if we lost the second set we retire” but even with that handicap she won in straight sets. If somebody else has seen the match and knows what she had exactly or can find some info about this would be good.

Edited by darko08

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Dayana Yastremska to beat Garbine Muguruza at 1.95 with SportingBet

I'm a big fan of Ms. Yastremska, and she has deposed of her previous two opponents with relative ease. Obviously Muguruza will be somewhat more of a challenge than her two previous opponents, however, Yastremska beat Muguruza in Luxembourg last year in straight sets (6-2, 6-3) despite having to back up from her win in Hong Kong the previous week.

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On 28/1/2019 at 12:53 PM, darko08 said:

I was thinking to bet Yastremska to win this tournament at 13.00. Yastremska has played and won against most of the favourites to win this tournament: Muguruza, Shuai Zhang, Tomljanovic and Saisai Zheng. The only of the 5 favorite players to win that has not played against Dayana is Caroline Garcia (6.00) but she’s so far from her best form. If Dayana and Muguruza win their first two round they will meet each other in quarterfinals (I think that the winner of that match will win the tournament). Finally I didn’t the bet, let’s see if I regret this.

Ok i regret. Now is paid at 1.90...

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Vera Zvonareva to beat Donna Vekic at 2.32 with betfair

Vekic is playing well recently but at these odds i prefer Zvonareva. Vekic won easily in straight sets against Kvitova (6-4, 6-1), who after her long run in the AO couldn’t compete here at her best. Vekic now will have to face a completely different player who will take her into long rallies. The Russian won in her second match against Julia in a 3 set match after losing the first set. In her third match, she has won against Kasatkina in straight sets (Kasatkina was not in her best but she played a decent match). Zvonareva has a big chance here to play another Final after 7 years. She is playing well, she’s fighting every point and she’s doing it in her home country.

Sorry i edit because at 888 is paid at 2.70

Edited by darko08

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Well I am still missing out on the payouts I'm after whether I post here or don't post here.. I am changing the rules for what I'm doing now, and I am not going to submit any plays here unless I am very confident with their success.. Before I was executing a value based strategy, and it was not as successful as I was hoping. Part of the problem was there was very few underdogs that actually won this past Australian open.. However, alot of the bets I was making were in accordance to how often these numbers are profitable at big odds, and not actually who I thought I was going to win the match..

38-81 +15.31 units(Includes all recent losing Australian open plays, including one winning parlay with doubles, and the two losses I took from December with Wawrinka and Coric Future prediction to win Aussie title) But overall I have lost about 25-30 picks in a row, and winning only about 3-5 in between there.  This is not a winning format to post here even if I could have better results on different times.. But, thats enough for confusing and poorly written explanation.. Sorry to anybody who took losses on those tho.. I am increasing the unit size of my plays on here now.. All bets will be staked two units instead of one with the expectation of much higher accuracy predictions

2 units Magda Linette to beat Yastremska @ 4.67 with Pinnacle

2 units Zhe Li to beat Taro Daniel @ 3.06 with Pinnacle

I am paying very close attention to matches at Hua Hin, and have won two bets in a row Linette.  She is playing very well. Yastremska played amazing vs Muguruza, but the catch here is that Garbine played one of the worst matches I have ever seen from her if not the absolute worst. She also was nervous, and serving very poor.. I have more analysis on the match but I don't want write book here. 

I caught some of the Davis cup in Guangdong Arena, China. There is not a huge crowd there supoorting China for whatever reason, but Zhe Li was on fire, and I made terrible mistake not paying attention to this match early in live betting because the odds was huge vs Nishioka.. Daniel may be a step up in class for the home team here, but if Li's level does not drop.. I imagine he will continue his fine tennis form, and take the match for China who is cheering him on last match with unbridled enthusiasm.

 

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Joao Sousa to beat Mikhail Kukushkin at 2.25 with Betsafe

I go for the head to head here and the need to win for Portugal. Joao is up 2-0 on hardcourts in this matchup and he needs to bring a win for Portugal here to keep the tie alive and I have to think he will do it. He lost to Sascha Bublik yesterday but that loss was just one of the regular surprises of this tournament. And Joao has never lost a set on hardcourt to Mikhail so I recommend a bet on Joao here.

Edited by four-leaf

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Shapovalov Denis to beat Klizan Martin Davis cup  @  2.10 bet365

Denis played ok at the Australian open, even though he lost their only match I feel like he’s a better player or its at least a 50/50 match

i think they’re playing on clay where both player are pretty good 

 

any opinion ?

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Klizan is just about to defeat Shapovalov in the doubles and he could win the tie for Slovakia by beating him in the singles next. Can't see how 2.10 on the Canadian can be value. Unless a comeback happens in the doubles, I'd much rather back Klizan.

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