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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - January 14 - February 3

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41 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, apparently I do, because I don't think that he would have the desire to go to Cleveland to throw his first match away and go for more travels, I don't think that he's getting an appearance fee :loon. He can crash and burn, everyone can, that's part of the risk, but I'm getting well above evens against a guy that won three games against Van De Zandschulp last time out and that ended 2018 by losing to complete no-names in India, so I'll go for that. Feel free to post your tip on Broady at 1.80.

1. He had to plan his tournaments months ago and he would get sanctioned if he would pull out late without an injury so yeah, he had to go to Cleveland, no matter if he wants or not or has other plans for the weekend.

2. I watched the match vs Zandschulp last week as it was a tournament in the region i live in Germany and obviously he was tanking because he knew he has to travel to the US for the next few tournaments. As Estrella broady had to plan his year early a couple of months ago and if you pull out of a tournament you have to bring a proof that you are injured or having private reasons not to play, otherwise you would get a fine. He had no intention to win there.

3. What has A to do with B? I said Estrella has absolutely NO VALUE for me and Broady is the favorite but i didn't say Broady has any value at 1.6-75 right now. Only because one bet has no value it obviously doesn't mean the other bet makes sense or has any kind of value. In my opinion odds are perfectly fine here and Estrella is the underdog but obviously Broady is struggling a bit recently so odds are a bit shorter than they should be if Broady has a good streak or shape. 

Touching Estrella indoors must be a perfect matchup and a perfect situation and big odds. 2.25 is too short to back a guy who might have other plans at the weekend plus almost no experience on fast indoor courts in the last 5 years. This makes no sense obviously. I wish you good luck as i do not have bet placed here so i hope you'll win your bet.

Edited by opole

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Broady might've been tanking, I don't know about that, thanks for the info, but you could you please tell me how you came to the conclusion that he could be playing in Cordoba? There might be some main draw wild cards left, but it's not his home country and his ranking is rather low, so I don't think that he's getting that. As for qualifying, the latest entry list that I was able to find doesn't have him among the alternates, with both WCs taken. I'm just asking if you perhaps have better sources than myself.

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5pts C.Garcia (-3.5 games) to beat J.Brady Evens Coral
Brady, Ranked 115th Vs Garcia, ranked 19th. Not sure why Garcia has odds of evens on her to win (with -3.5 handicap). Brady hasn't even had much of a start to the season. She's gone out of Brisbane in Qualifcation, out of the Australian Open to Maia and despite winning her qualification matches easy here, she hasn't beaten anybody remotely close to Garcia's standard. I would expect Garcia to beat her in straight sets like she has done the 2 times these have met in the past.

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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Broady might've been tanking, I don't know about that, thanks for the info, but you could you please tell me how you came to the conclusion that he could be playing in Cordoba? There might be some main draw wild cards left, but it's not his home country and his ranking is rather low, so I don't think that he's getting that. As for qualifying, the latest entry list that I was able to find doesn't have him among the alternates, with both WCs taken. I'm just asking if you perhaps have better sources than myself.

He is ALT #11 or #12 i think and there are already a few guys in from the ALT list out as for example Arguello and Collarini who are both on the ALT list received MDWCs (like Londero who is also on the Q list right now) so they are out of the ALT list, same for Cachin who received a QWC and probably doesn't need it as he gets in directly. So wouldn't be shocked if he gets in there as some other ALTs are won't come to Cordoba and will pull out like Evan Song or Tak Khun Wang. Furthermore Cordoba is the official replacement of Quito Open and we all know which big success Estrella had there so i won't be surprised if he maybe gets in or receives a wild card for qualies as Cachin as i said who received one should get in directly. He may have some contacts here which help him.  Not 100% sure of course but i wouldn't shocked as said. It isn't a reason to bet against Estrella but everyone who thinks about taking Estrella should take this into account imo. Still i would not bet on Broady here as i said, it's a classic no bet situation imo. But i didn't want to make something bad here, only some additional thoughts for you and everyone who wants to follow.

Edited by opole

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Well, that's certainly useful info, none of the entry lists that I was able to find had more than ten alternates, any chance you could share a link? Because obviously ATP and WTA are retarded enough not to have it as public info, so one always has to google things and get incomplete data.

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5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, that's certainly useful info, none of the entry lists that I was able to find had more than ten alternates, any chance you could share a link? Because obviously ATP and WTA are retarded enough not to have it as public info, so one always has to google things and get incomplete data.

I got access to the ATP playerzone data via a good friend of mine who is a regular player on the tour.

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Challenger Cleveland

Ryan Shane @ 3.23 Pinnacle 4/10

Shane is a big hitter and obviously he is dangerous at faster surfaces and indoors, he reached his first final there two months ago. His nerves are the problem, he is too inconsistent but if he is on he can bang especially with his forehand. his serve is also a massive weapon. He was one of the best college players a couple of years ago but never made it at the pros. But i do not give up on him, maybe 2019 is his breakthrough year, who knows, he's still relatively young at age 24 so we might see him crack into Top 200 this year. His opponent JJ wolf is in really really good shape, won Columbus challenger at home as he is a player of Ohio State and also destroyed all of his opponents at college last two weeks but i think he is still young and Shane is a total unpredictable matchup for him. Should be close.

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WTA Hua Hin (Thailand), hard

Minella Mandy - Zheng Saisai

Zheng Saisai @ 1.48 - 1.59

I expect Zheng to take her first 2019 win.

  • Zheng (24 years) is younger than Minella (33 years)
  • Zheng (42) is higher in ranking than Minella (101)
  • Zheng (39 games in 2018) plays much on on hardcourts than Minella (5 games in 2018)
  • Thailand is much closer to Zheng than to Minella
  • It seems that odds for Zheng decreases on most of the bookmakers

Of course Minella may still win this but there are lot of arguments that speak in favor of the chinese.

Edited by vvararu

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Maria Sharapova to beat Darya Kasatkina 2-0 at 1.83 with Unibet

Rolling on with Sharapova, as Kasatkina has been a mess recently. Meanwhile, it was clear that the tournament means a lot for Maria during the first round, so I think that she'll want to do her best and try to establish herself as the Russian number one again. Kasatkina is bound to bounce back at some point, of course, but she's won exactly one set so far in this season, so I hope that she's going to delay the comeback a bit :lol.

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58 minutes ago, Fader said:

What the hell has happened to carol garcia. She's a mess! my mum could beat her at the moment with that serving.

She is playing like Hsieh did last night. To make it worse, Brady has a long service game and immediately takes a MTO for a back rub. Fuming

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8 minutes ago, KennyDelight said:

She is playing like Hsieh did last night. To make it worse, Brady has a long service game and immediately takes a MTO for a back rub. Fuming

Really hard to watch such a sh*t performance. Doesn't even look like she cares. I've seen a couple of times her think about not even running to the net for drop shots that are easily achievable. If she can't beat players like Brady, she may aswell retire. Her desire is non-existent right now.

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WTA - SINGLES: St. Petersburg (Russia), hard (indoor) - 1/16-finals

Azarenka Victoria    -    Gasparyan Margarita

Azarenka Victoria @ 1.83 - 2.00

I expect Azarenka to win because

  • Azarenka (51) is higher in ranking than Gasparyan (81)
  • Azarenka won more hardcourt games (percentage-wise) in 2018 (6/12) than Gasparyan (8/24)
  • Both are russian speakers so no one will feel a foreigner (still advantage for Gasparyan because of her residence in Russia)
  • Odds on Azarenka decreases on most of the bookmakers
  • I haven't seen Gasparyan's last games but, as I know, she had a knee injury at the end of last year. Probably it won't influence a lot, but still, good to know.

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Shocks me how a player can play as good as Lisicki did in some parts of the match (she played well with her forehand and her serve and also did some good drop shots) for then unreasonably becoming an absolute mess in other parts of the match. Luckily for me the line (+5.5) is covered: 6-3, 6-4.

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I wish I could find a bookie offering "outright market" for st petersburg. I want to take Mladenovic to win the event. She's stated as 40/1 but cannot find it anywhere to bet it. If she beats Ostapenko would imagine that will be more like 16/20s :(

Won this event in 2017. Semi-final last year, losing to eventual winner Kvitova. Kvitova must be tired after her Aus Open and would face sharapova in the semis. all the hallmarks. each-way at 40s would be the bet for me but i just cannot get it.

I will be taking anything over 20 later though. I also fancy Cibulkova against Alexandrova. Any opinions on that matchup?

 

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Jelena Ostapenko to beat Kristina Mladenovic at 2.02 with 888

This match will be a drama, for sure. We have 2 players in a very bad shape. I never bet in matches where Ostapenko is involved because she's very unpredictable but i usually bet against Mladenovic (she's very good playing doubles but she's not getting good results in singles since a long time). Im a little bit surprised to see Ostapenko as the non-favorite player here so i think theres is value on her because a see her slightly favorite here.

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8 minutes ago, Fader said:

I wish I could find a bookie offering "outright market" for st petersburg. I want to take Mladenovic to win the event. She's stated as 40/1 but cannot find it anywhere to bet it. If she beats Ostapenko would imagine that will be more like 16/20s :(

Won this event in 2017. Semi-final last year, losing to eventual winner Kvitova. Kvitova must be tired after her Aus Open and would face sharapova in the semis. all the hallmarks. each-way at 40s would be the bet for me but i just cannot get it.

I will be taking anything over 20 later though. I also fancy Cibulkova against Alexandrova. Any opinions on that matchup?

 

Wow, really? Mladenovic is not getting good results in singles since a very long time. I can't imagine her winning this event!

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2 minutes ago, darko08 said:

Wow, really? Mladenovic is not getting good results in singles since a very long time. I can't imagine her winning this event!

She will need to perform here to protect her points and if you look at her results on the indoor circuit they are not that bad. 11 wins and 5 losses. Those 5 losses to Kontaveit(21st) twice, Petkovic(64th), Kvitova(7th) and Sasnovich(30th) she has had some bad results recently, but she obviously likes this event.

I'unno maybe I'm bonkers. If she loses to Ostapenko then saves me a bet I guess :D

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22 minutes ago, Fader said:

She will need to perform here to protect her points and if you look at her results on the indoor circuit they are not that bad. 11 wins and 5 losses. Those 5 losses to Kontaveit(21st) twice, Petkovic(64th), Kvitova(7th) and Sasnovich(30th) she has had some bad results recently, but she obviously likes this event.

I'unno maybe I'm bonkers. If she loses to Ostapenko then saves me a bet I guess :D

Yep, looks like indoor hard courts fit Mladenovic’s game but defending a lot of points doesn't mean that the player will go far here just that she will be implicated. To be honest anything can happen in this match but i did some money betting against Kristina in singles the last year and i prefer going with Jelena here. Kristina has better serve but i expect a lot of double faults and breaks from both players here, and i prefer Ostapenko's forehand. I wouldn't be surprised if Kristina wins, like i said this will be a drama between 2 players in a bad shape

Edited by darko08

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I think odds look about right. i wont be betting on the individual match but I like the chances of Mladenovic to go deep if she's on form. As you say, both look abit shaky at the moment and i also expect a break-fest. Good luck with the Osta pick mate.

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Donna Vekic (2-0) to beat Veronika Kudermetova at 1.83 with William Hill

Vekic was playing so well but disappointed me when she lost in the second round against Kimberly Birrell in a 3 set match after beating Mladenovic in straight sets in the AO. She did well in Brisbane beating Rybarikova, Bertens and Sasnovich and losing finally against Pliskova who was in a very good shape. I could not see her first match here against Bacsinszky but she won her after losing the first set (4-6, 6-1, 6-3) and this is an incredible comeback considering how good was playing Bacsinszky the last matches. Kudermetova has entered in the main draw as a lucky loser (she lost in the third match of the qualy against Gasparyan in straight sets: 6-0 and 6-1…). In the first round she destroyed Danilovic (6-2, 6-1) but im not impressed by that because Olga has a bright future but she’s still so young. Vekic has played well recently and she’s the most experienced player here so I expect her to win this comfortably.

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