Tennis Tips - January 14 - February 3

[opole]

5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, that's certainly useful info, none of the entry lists that I was able to find had more than ten alternates, any chance you could share a link? Because obviously ATP and WTA are retarded enough not to have it as public info, so one always has to google things and get incomplete data.

I got access to the ATP playerzone data via a good friend of mine who is a regular player on the tour.

[opole]

Challenger Cleveland

Ryan Shane @ 3.23 Pinnacle 4/10

Shane is a big hitter and obviously he is dangerous at faster surfaces and indoors, he reached his first final there two months ago. His nerves are the problem, he is too inconsistent but if he is on he can bang especially with his forehand. his serve is also a massive weapon. He was one of the best college players a couple of years ago but never made it at the pros. But i do not give up on him, maybe 2019 is his breakthrough year, who knows, he's still relatively young at age 24 so we might see him crack into Top 200 this year. His opponent JJ wolf is in really really good shape, won Columbus challenger at home as he is a player of Ohio State and also destroyed all of his opponents at college last two weeks but i think he is still young and Shane is a total unpredictable matchup for him. Should be close.

[vvararu]

WTA Hua Hin (Thailand), hard

Minella Mandy - Zheng Saisai

Zheng Saisai @ 1.48 - 1.59

I expect Zheng to take her first 2019 win.

• Zheng (24 years) is younger than Minella (33 years)
• Zheng (42) is higher in ranking than Minella (101)
• Zheng (39 games in 2018) plays much on on hardcourts than Minella (5 games in 2018)
• Thailand is much closer to Zheng than to Minella
• It seems that odds for Zheng decreases on most of the bookmakers

Of course Minella may still win this but there are lot of arguments that speak in favor of the chinese.

Edited January 29, 2019 by vvararu

[Fader]

What the hell has happened to carol garcia. She's a mess! my mum could beat her at the moment with that serving.

Edited January 29, 2019 by Fader

[CzechPunter]

Maria Sharapova to beat Darya Kasatkina 2-0 at 1.83 with Unibet

Rolling on with Sharapova, as Kasatkina has been a mess recently. Meanwhile, it was clear that the tournament means a lot for Maria during the first round, so I think that she'll want to do her best and try to establish herself as the Russian number one again. Kasatkina is bound to bounce back at some point, of course, but she's won exactly one set so far in this season, so I hope that she's going to delay the comeback a bit .

[KennyDelight]

58 minutes ago, Fader said:

What the hell has happened to carol garcia. She's a mess! my mum could beat her at the moment with that serving.

She is playing like Hsieh did last night. To make it worse, Brady has a long service game and immediately takes a MTO for a back rub. Fuming

[Fader]

8 minutes ago, KennyDelight said:

She is playing like Hsieh did last night. To make it worse, Brady has a long service game and immediately takes a MTO for a back rub. Fuming

Really hard to watch such a sh*t performance. Doesn't even look like she cares. I've seen a couple of times her think about not even running to the net for drop shots that are easily achievable. If she can't beat players like Brady, she may aswell retire. Her desire is non-existent right now.

[vvararu]

WTA - SINGLES: St. Petersburg (Russia), hard (indoor) - 1/16-finals

Azarenka Victoria    -    Gasparyan Margarita

Azarenka Victoria @ 1.83 - 2.00

I expect Azarenka to win because

• Azarenka (51) is higher in ranking than Gasparyan (81)
• Azarenka won more hardcourt games (percentage-wise) in 2018 (6/12) than Gasparyan (8/24)
• Both are russian speakers so no one will feel a foreigner (still advantage for Gasparyan because of her residence in Russia)
• Odds on Azarenka decreases on most of the bookmakers
• I haven't seen Gasparyan's last games but, as I know, she had a knee injury at the end of last year. Probably it won't influence a lot, but still, good to know.

[CzechPunter]

@vvararu Please try to always post the bookmaker you're betting with so that we know where to get the listed odds! 

[vvararu]

Azarenka is very aggressive but, also, does many mistakes. I hope she will take second set and save my nerves.

[darko08]

Shocks me how a player can play as good as Lisicki did in some parts of the match (she played well with her forehand and her serve and also did some good drop shots) for then unreasonably becoming an absolute mess in other parts of the match. Luckily for me the line (+5.5) is covered: 6-3, 6-4.

[Fader]

I wish I could find a bookie offering "outright market" for st petersburg. I want to take Mladenovic to win the event. She's stated as 40/1 but cannot find it anywhere to bet it. If she beats Ostapenko would imagine that will be more like 16/20s

Won this event in 2017. Semi-final last year, losing to eventual winner Kvitova. Kvitova must be tired after her Aus Open and would face sharapova in the semis. all the hallmarks. each-way at 40s would be the bet for me but i just cannot get it.

I will be taking anything over 20 later though. I also fancy Cibulkova against Alexandrova. Any opinions on that matchup?

 

[darko08]

Jelena Ostapenko to beat Kristina Mladenovic at 2.02 with 888

This match will be a drama, for sure. We have 2 players in a very bad shape. I never bet in matches where Ostapenko is involved because she's very unpredictable but i usually bet against Mladenovic (she's very good playing doubles but she's not getting good results in singles since a long time). Im a little bit surprised to see Ostapenko as the non-favorite player here so i think theres is value on her because a see her slightly favorite here.

[darko08]

8 minutes ago, Fader said:

I wish I could find a bookie offering "outright market" for st petersburg. I want to take Mladenovic to win the event. She's stated as 40/1 but cannot find it anywhere to bet it. If she beats Ostapenko would imagine that will be more like 16/20s

Won this event in 2017. Semi-final last year, losing to eventual winner Kvitova. Kvitova must be tired after her Aus Open and would face sharapova in the semis. all the hallmarks. each-way at 40s would be the bet for me but i just cannot get it.

I will be taking anything over 20 later though. I also fancy Cibulkova against Alexandrova. Any opinions on that matchup?

 

Wow, really? Mladenovic is not getting good results in singles since a very long time. I can't imagine her winning this event!

[Fader]

2 minutes ago, darko08 said:

Wow, really? Mladenovic is not getting good results in singles since a very long time. I can't imagine her winning this event!

She will need to perform here to protect her points and if you look at her results on the indoor circuit they are not that bad. 11 wins and 5 losses. Those 5 losses to Kontaveit(21st) twice, Petkovic(64th), Kvitova(7th) and Sasnovich(30th) she has had some bad results recently, but she obviously likes this event.

I'unno maybe I'm bonkers. If she loses to Ostapenko then saves me a bet I guess

[darko08]

22 minutes ago, Fader said:

She will need to perform here to protect her points and if you look at her results on the indoor circuit they are not that bad. 11 wins and 5 losses. Those 5 losses to Kontaveit(21st) twice, Petkovic(64th), Kvitova(7th) and Sasnovich(30th) she has had some bad results recently, but she obviously likes this event.

I'unno maybe I'm bonkers. If she loses to Ostapenko then saves me a bet I guess

Yep, looks like indoor hard courts fit Mladenovic’s game but defending a lot of points doesn't mean that the player will go far here just that she will be implicated. To be honest anything can happen in this match but i did some money betting against Kristina in singles the last year and i prefer going with Jelena here. Kristina has better serve but i expect a lot of double faults and breaks from both players here, and i prefer Ostapenko's forehand. I wouldn't be surprised if Kristina wins, like i said this will be a drama between 2 players in a bad shape

Edited January 29, 2019 by darko08

[Fader]

I think odds look about right. i wont be betting on the individual match but I like the chances of Mladenovic to go deep if she's on form. As you say, both look abit shaky at the moment and i also expect a break-fest. Good luck with the Osta pick mate.

[CzechPunter]

I, for one, am pretty amazed that Kvitova is indeed playing. Madness if you ask me.

[darko08]

Donna Vekic (2-0) to beat Veronika Kudermetova at 1.83 with William Hill

Vekic was playing so well but disappointed me when she lost in the second round against Kimberly Birrell in a 3 set match after beating Mladenovic in straight sets in the AO. She did well in Brisbane beating Rybarikova, Bertens and Sasnovich and losing finally against Pliskova who was in a very good shape. I could not see her first match here against Bacsinszky but she won her after losing the first set (4-6, 6-1, 6-3) and this is an incredible comeback considering how good was playing Bacsinszky the last matches. Kudermetova has entered in the main draw as a lucky loser (she lost in the third match of the qualy against Gasparyan in straight sets: 6-0 and 6-1…). In the first round she destroyed Danilovic (6-2, 6-1) but im not impressed by that because Olga has a bright future but she’s still so young. Vekic has played well recently and she’s the most experienced player here so I expect her to win this comfortably.

[vvararu]

Impressive start from Ostapenko.

[darko08]

Just now, vvararu said:

Impressive start from Ostapenko.

When Ostapenko serves decently and feels the ball with her forehand is an incredible tough opponent to beat.

[darko08]

6-1 0-5: a lot of breaks, double faults, unforced errors… anyone doubted that this would be a drama? I can’t imagine what can happen in the third set 

[vvararu]

That girl is crazy...

[Fader]

battle of the tankers. women's tennis is embarrassing lol

 

I think this is why it was a no bet for me. 1st game in 3rd set, Mlad 30-40. She wins that game, she wins the set 6-0. These 2 have been incredibly weak.

Edited January 29, 2019 by Fader

[darko08]

But Ostapenko played better. Kristina won the 2nd set by doing nothing. She did the same tactic that a lot of players do when they play against Ostapenko: put the ball in the court and wait for the UE from Jelena. That worked just for the second set when Jelena was colder. Anyway, i will not bet in any match with Ostapenko involved for a long time  typical match from her.

Edited January 29, 2019 by darko08

[Grass Cash]

Fantastic park Darko08 .. I was going to comment earlier but I completely butchered the Australian open .. so I think its best that I don't post any picks for a long while .. I needed Ostapenko to complete a very important parlay today , and she scared me alot in the second set.. but in the end was an amazing bet 

[Grass Cash]

I am taking a look at some matches in Cleveland .. I don't believe that Darian King is good indoors. I think Roy Smith or Petrovic might have a shot .. They are both taller players indoors which might help in the serving department.. But its pretty clear their opponents are better .. dynamic changes a bit in indoor conditions.. especially first match indoors for young 

definitely not pulling triggers on any of these cleveland guys yet .. I need some more info , or i might wait for in play but looks too risky atm

Edited January 29, 2019 by money44

[four-leaf]

Roy Smith to beat Donald Young at 5.75 with Unibet

Roy hasn't looked good at the start of this season but a first win over Gijs Brouwer could give him some momentum and perhaps he can play well enough to match Donald now. Roy isn't as bad as the odds suggest I think and he had a major ranking boost late last season when he reached his first challenger final which he lost to Brad Klahn. I saw Donald beat Collin Altamirano last friday but he didn't look to good, making many unforced errors and he consequently lost the semifinal after that to Brayden Schnur. If he does play like he did last week he could be in trouble in this match too. Small stake on Roy here.

[Grass Cash]

good luck @four-leaf I might jump on this match in play .. nice to know what u think tho - TY 

[darko08]

Julia Gorges (2-0) to beat Vera Zvonareva at 1.95 with William Hill

My last bet for tomorrow is another 2-0. Gorges Is playing very well recently. She disappointed me in the AO losing against Danielle Collins (6-2, 6-7, 4-6), who surprisingly reached the semifinals, but won in Auckland (beating there Larsson, Barthel, Bouchard, Kuzmova and Andreescu) and Luxembourg. Her style fits perfectly in this kind of courts where the balls go fast (she’s a big hitting player with one of the best serves in the WTA). He defends semifinals from the last year where she finally lost in a 3 set match against the winner of the tournament: Kvitova. She won her first match here in straight sets against Maria Sakkari. Zvonariova will have the favour of the crowd but she’s not getting good results. She won in the first round here in straight sets against Makarova, who is out of form (6 losing streak). Before that she lost in straight sets against Astra Sharma in the first match of the qualy in the AO (3-6, 2-6).