FA Cup Predictions > Jan 4th - 7th

[StevieDay1983]

The FA Cup 3rd Round is here! 64 teams are left in the competition with 32 ties being played this weekend. Plenty of ties where we could see potential giant killings. Due to the high level of ties I'll be previewing an extra game in this round of matches. So let's see what bets you guys have got lined up and see if we can crack the enigma code that is the FA Cup 3rd Round! 

[Tiffy]

Last season I noticed that the underdogs priced around 4/1 did ok.

Im looking at the teams at those prices, playing teams with either promotion or relegation on their minds.

Burnley V Barnsley 4.2

Sheff Weds v LUTON 3.1

Bolton V Walsall 4.2

Gillingham V Cardiff 4.0

Newcastle V Blackburn 5.5

And with 5000 travelling fans behind them at Selhurst Park, I fancy Grimsby to get something, (probably a draw) here @8/1

Possibly Peterborough to get something away at Middlesborough

Also

Bristol City V Huddersfield 2.4

 

 

[malabgd]

Tranmere Rovers v Tottenham

Tranmere Rovers: Ollie Banks (18/1 m, probably in), Shamal George (0/0 g, left the club)

Tottenham: Jan Vertonghen (9/1 d), Mousa Dembele (10/0 m), Erik Lamela (11/4 m, illness), Victor Wanyama (4/0 m), Eric Dier (13/2 m), Vincent Janssen (0/0 f)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[Neubs]

I´m today on this Bet: Tottenham to Win with Total of Under 3.5 Goals....

Spurs will field a strong team said Pochettino, but he will rotate. So i think some offensive Players like Kane, Alli or Eriksen will sit on the Bench. Last Season Tottenham must go in Replay Games against Newport and Rochdale, so i think that they didn´t want this scenario again. They will take this Match serious, but i think they will look with One Eye on next Mideweek Semi Final Game against Chelsea. So Pitch also will not be the best and Tranmere Team will be high Motivated but they are limited in quality. So i expected a Spurs Team which dominate the Game but maybe without some important Offensive Players and with this one Eye on next Game agains Chelsea i expected some FT-Results about 0-2 or 0-3

[Neubs]

@Tiffy

Nice Opinions from you, but why you not fancy Shrewsbury. Most Players of Stoke are against Coach Rowett and Bojan and Bauer, both Players made this "offical" in Social Media. Lost against Birmingham and Bristol - and made a Draw against Bolton. In all 3 Games they played very poor. The quality is for sure very High, but maybe they didn´t want show it, because of Rowett.

So i  think if Rowett will not get sacked today i will play in the evening a Double Chance here.

[thfc]

If anyone is looking to back spurs tonight, my advice would be to be wary.  Spurs will rotate probably at least 8 first team players, with the Chelsea semi-final coming up on Tuesday. 

Clearly the players coming into the team will be better quality than Tranmere's players, but last season, spurs heavily rotated their FA cup teams when playing away to Newport and Rochdale and drew both games (the Newport game with a late spurs equaliser).  Tranmere are on a similar level to those teams and this is their cup final so they will be going all out to perform well.

I still think Spurs will win, but not as convincingly as the outright odds suggest.  I don't expect Kane, Alli or Eriksen to be playing tonight, and I assume Llorente will come in as the main goal threat.  However, he is hardly match sharp so I wouldn't be relying on him to score.  I think Lucas Moura is also likely to start this one, and he would be my shout for a spurs goal (anytime at 2.25 with Bet365) as a better bet than spurs on the outrights.

 

[thfc]

Following @Tiffys post on possible cupsets, what about Forest away at Chelsea?  Chelsea have some injury problems at the moment and have the league cup semi-final against Spurs on Tuesday to consider.  They weren't able to break down a poor Southampton team the other day.  I'm sure Hazard will be rested and they will probably play their Europa league team with Giroud, Loftus Cheek etc.  Still a decent team of course.

Forest beat Arsenal last year in the cup (albeit at home) and I fancy them to make a game of it against Chelsea.  Forest are inconsistent but did beat top of the table Leeds in their last game and are going along nicely in the championship.  At odds of 17, I think they are a bit overpriced given Chelsea's injuries etc.  Forest +1 may also be a play.  I just hope Forest don't weaken down themselves and have a go.

 

[thfc]

And I also fancy Wolves to beat Liverpool on Monday.  Wolves up their game against the bigger clubs, and are well placed in the league to have a real go at the FA cup.  Liverpool are sure to rotate their squad, and this is clearly their lowest priority of the three competitions they are still in.  I don't expect the recent 2-0 Liverpool win against wolves to have a bearing on this match, as I imagine at least 6-7 of Liverpool's first team players that played in that game will be rested.

Liverpool have a recent history of struggling in the FA Cup, including a loss to Wolves at home in the 2016/17 season. They also were held to draws by Exeter and Plymouth away from home in recent years, and last year managed to lose at home to West Brom.

Klopp doesn't appear to take the cup seriously, so I think Wolves are worth a go at 4.5 (Bet365).  

[StevieDay1983]

Tranmere vs Tottenham

The FA Cup 3rd Round kicks off this Friday night when League Two promotion hopefuls Tranmere play Premier League title contenders Tottenham in a 7:45pm kick-off at Prenton Park. Will this be the first traditional "cupset" of the round or will the underdogs be given an expected lesson in football?

Tranmere have endured their hard times over the years. Funnily enough, I was reading Nige Tassell's critically-acclaimed book "The Bottom Corner" the other week. In that, he visits a number of non-league clubs to cover their own plights and what not. Tranmere was one club he covered and it was interesting to hear how former FA chief executive Mark Palios has come in as owner and turned things around. It's been a slow process but it's been an effective one. Since the book, when the club was competing in the National League, they have not only returned to the Football League but are now hunting down a promotion berth to League One.

This season has been a solid one for Micky Mellon's side. The club are 9th in League Two and just 3 points off the play-offs. Their recent form can be twisted to suit what you feel their mindset will be heading into this game. On one hand, they've only managed 1 win in their last 5 league games. On the other hand, it's 3 league games undefeated.

Tottenham come into this game in great form. Mauricio Pochettino's side have kept up the pressure on the top two of Liverpool and Manchester City. Spurs are now just 6 points off the title pace and must be considered genuine contenders for the Premier League title.

Their form has consisted of 6 wins from their last 7 league games. They come into this game having scored less than 3.5 goals in each of their last four cup games against lower league opposition. This could be a trickier game than many anticipate. Tranmere boast the best defensive home record in League Two having conceded just 0.38 goals per game at home this season. Only MK Dons and Liverpool boast equal or better defensive records at home in the top five divisions of English football.

Having seen Tottenham at first hand at the Cardiff City Stadium during the week it's clear Pochettino has built a squad that is inter-changeable. Spurs could rest half of their side and they would maintain a fluency. I think that's exactly what Pochettino will do. I think he'd secretly love to win the FA Cup so might take this more seriously than people assume. I think Tranmere will put up a fight but Tottenham should sneak a win by a goal or two. Not a lot of value here so tread carefully.

Total Goals Scored Under 3.5 @ 1.69 with MarathonBet

Tottenham -1 @ 1.55 with Sportingbet

@Mindfulness, @Pep004, @MaliMisko12, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @godofhorses, @Tiffy, @waynecoyne, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @Duke_Tm, @dogmeister, @Arkadi Manucharov, @derbent, @fat, @allyhibs, @6avin24, @discipline, @the bastardian, @Bronxie, @Bett, @KikoCy, @teddybear3011, @markus808, @allthethings, @Kenton Schweppes, @vasilli07, @Dylan Lynch, @neilovan, @JKos, @zemo91, @kulikTS, @mrclubbie, @Judeksi, @Henind666, @Dave1X2, @canaries91, @jazzman02, @sajtion, @Darran, @postmanplod69, @eddiem, @bartonbank, @yossa6133, @Teodore, @thinkpink63, and @AndreBR, what bets are you guys looking at here?

[Mindfulness]

Crystal Palace V Grimsby Town

Grimsby Town +2.0 AH @ 2.17 Matchbook

I agree with @Tiffy here in the sense that Palace are probably priced a bit too short for this match. Grimsby are pretty high up the form table in league two and they have a chance to at least make the scoreline look respectable here.

Hodgson says he is taking the competition seriously but is likely to rotate 7 or 8 players for this game. We've already established that Palace are not the best home team in the EPL and have really struggled to score goals on their own patch so far this campaign. Ok so the cup is a separate competition but Palace's home form in the league is a cause for concern.

Domestic cup games are usually difficult to predict and most bets are a bit of a punt. I only play at half stakes in these kinds of situations so it's time to relax and throw some quids on the bonfire.

I have quite a few games on my shortlist for this card but currently waiting for manager interviews and team news, will post again if I take anything else.

 

[StevieDay1983]

Gillingham vs Cardiff

If you want to know a game in the FA Cup this weekend where there's likely to be an upset then it's quite likely to happen at the Priestfield Stadium for this 3pm kick-off where League One side Gillingham will entertain Premier League club Cardiff. I'm not saying we've been ineffective in the FA Cup under Neil Warnock but... well, we have!

Gillingham are not exactly enjoying the best time this season with the club sat in 18th position in League One just 1 point above the relegation zone. Steve Lovell is probably not in danger of losing his job but the last thing the club wants is to suffer relegation back down to League Two. A cup game like this will offer welcome relief from the stress of league action.

Cardiff are also battling in their own fight in the Premier League. Warnock's men are exceeding expectations by being sat in 17th place but survival in the top flight of English football is certainly the priority. Warnock has never prioritised the FA Cup when with us so we're not expecting that to change here. This could be a last chance saloon game for a number of fringe players who could be facing the exit door in January if they don't impress.

This fixture has seen a large number of goals. The last time these two sides met was back on 30th April, 2005. It was a 1-1 draw at the Priestfield Stadium but both clubs were in different situations back then. They last met in the FA Cup even further back on 7th December, 1996 when Gillingham prevailed as 2-0 winners in the FA Cup 2nd Round.

As a Cardiff fan, I'm already writing this one off. I love the FA Cup. I have so many memories of this competition. From playing non-league Enfield to beating Manchester City in 1994 and Leeds in 2002. Then there was our run to the final in 2008. It's a brilliant cup competition but we have other priorities this season so focus on the FA Cup is taking a break. I can see Gilllingham catching us out. Warnock will play a back up side and our back up players are notoriously poor when coming in for these games. I can see a 2-1 loss for us or maybe a 1-1 draw. I'll advise the double chance because maybe I'm just being a typically pessimistic Bluebird!

Gillingham Double Chance @ 2.00 with Betway

BTTS @ 1.77 with SportPesa

[willie82]

Good write up stevieday1983. This fixture jumped out at me when I looked at the odds on the coupon (10/11) but now 4/5. Gillingham have been poor lately and I think Cardiff fringe players will be motivated enough and have enough to win at gillingham. Has Warnock said anything re team news?

[allthethings]

Tiffy's right about 4/1 underdogs, but let me flesh that out with numbers from the past decade. Dogs of up to 4.99 tend toward draws when they get a result in the round of 32, and dogs of 5.00-5.99 tend toward wins. That's true of both home and away dogs. My database is built with closing odds (from Betexplorer), so you'll have to see what happens between now and kickoff.

[allthethings]

7 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Tranmere vs Tottenham

The FA Cup 3rd Round kicks off this Friday night when League Two promotion hopefuls Tranmere play Premier League title contenders Tottenham in a 7:45pm kick-off at Prenton Park. Will this be the first traditional "cupset" of the round or will the underdogs be given an expected lesson in football?

Tranmere have endured their hard times over the years. Funnily enough, I was reading Nige Tassell's critically-acclaimed book "The Bottom Corner" the other week. In that, he visits a number of non-league clubs to cover their own plights and what not. Tranmere was one club he covered and it was interesting to hear how former FA chief executive Mark Palios has come in as owner and turned things around. It's been a slow process but it's been an effective one. Since the book, when the club was competing in the National League, they have not only returned to the Football League but are now hunting down a promotion berth to League One.

This season has been a solid one for Micky Mellon's side. The club are 9th in League Two and just 3 points off the play-offs. Their recent form can be twisted to suit what you feel their mindset will be heading into this game. On one hand, they've only managed 1 win in their last 5 league games. On the other hand, it's 3 league games undefeated.

Tottenham come into this game in great form. Mauricio Pochettino's side have kept up the pressure on the top two of Liverpool and Manchester City. Spurs are now just 6 points off the title pace and must be considered genuine contenders for the Premier League title.

Their form has consisted of 6 wins from their last 7 league games. They come into this game having scored less than 3.5 goals in each of their last four cup games against lower league opposition. This could be a trickier game than many anticipate. Tranmere boast the best defensive home record in League Two having conceded just 0.38 goals per game at home this season. Only MK Dons and Liverpool boast equal or better defensive records at home in the top five divisions of English football.

Having seen Tottenham at first hand at the Cardiff City Stadium during the week it's clear Pochettino has built a squad that is inter-changeable. Spurs could rest half of their side and they would maintain a fluency. I think that's exactly what Pochettino will do. I think he'd secretly love to win the FA Cup so might take this more seriously than people assume. I think Tranmere will put up a fight but Tottenham should sneak a win by a goal or two. Not a lot of value here so tread carefully.

Total Goals Scored Under 3.5 @ 1.69 with MarathonBet

Tottenham -1 @ 1.55 with Sportingbet

@Mindfulness, @Pep004, @MaliMisko12, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @godofhorses, @Tiffy, @waynecoyne, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @Duke_Tm, @dogmeister, @Arkadi Manucharov, @derbent, @fat, @allyhibs, @6avin24, @discipline, @the bastardian, @Bronxie, @Bett, @KikoCy, @teddybear3011, @markus808, @allthethings, @Kenton Schweppes, @vasilli07, @Dylan Lynch, @neilovan, @JKos, @zemo91, @kulikTS, @mrclubbie, @Judeksi, @Henind666, @Dave1X2, @canaries91, @jazzman02, @sajtion, @Darran, @postmanplod69, @eddiem, @bartonbank, @yossa6133, @Teodore, @thinkpink63, and @AndreBR, what bets are you guys looking at here?

There's no value at all in what you've suggested. You'll cash both at terrible odds if the final score reads either 0-2 or 0-3, and cashing one will lose you money.

Spurs did have the two replays last winter, but over the years this hasn't been a typical outcome. Really, there's no way to handicap a match like this. This represents the highest odds on a home dog since I started keeping track. If you look at the matches in the round of 32 with a home dog of more than 8.00, you get one draw, four losses by exactly one goal, one loss by two and one loss by four. With these bets taken together, you'd profit in one of those seven circumstances. In the round of 16, there are ten such matches, and you'd have profited from three of them.

[Tiffy]

17 hours ago, Neubs said:

@Tiffy

Nice Opinions from you, but why you not fancy Shrewsbury. Most Players of Stoke are against Coach Rowett and Bojan and Bauer, both Players made this "offical" in Social Media. Lost against Birmingham and Bristol - and made a Draw against Bolton. In all 3 Games they played very poor. The quality is for sure very High, but maybe they didn´t want show it, because of Rowett.

So i  think if Rowett will not get sacked today i will play in the evening a Double Chance here.

I did look at this fixture and think about putting it on the list. Stoke are neither here nor there this season, so yeah there could definitely be an upset in this match.

[Marek76]

Accrington Stanley - Ipswich  @2.4

Accrington won against Colchester in the first round before cruising past Cheltenham.

Having picked up just two wins in the first half of their Championship campaign, a cup competition is likely to be the last thing on the minds of Ipswich’s players. Ipswich have shown very little sign of improvement under Paul Lambert and suffered defeats (without scoring!) to Nottingham Forest, Stoke, QPR and Middlesbrough in December.

[allthethings]

Peterborough 6.32, Oxford Utd 6.25, Gillingham-Cardiff X 3.95

[allthethings]

2 hours ago, allthethings said:

Peterborough 6.32, Oxford Utd 6.25, Gillingham-Cardiff X 3.95

Could have done without the Gills' winning goal. I did also take Blackburn and Portsmouth to get draws at about 3.45 each. See Norwich have had one sent off early...

[StevieDay1983]

Woking vs Watford

If you want a David versus Goliath fixture in the FA Cup this weekend then you need look no further than National League South side Woking hosting Premier League Watford at the Kingfield Stadium in a 2pm kick-off on Sunday afternoon. Is this the big upset of the 3rd Round that we're all waiting for? Hmm.

Woking are a team not to be written off. The Cardinals are 2nd in their division 5 points behind league leaders Torquay but with three games in hand. Alan Dowson's team are looking to rise back up to the National League after relegation last season. It's been a memorable season so far but could it get even better here?

Watford are continuing to remain in the top half of the Premier League table. Javi Gracia's men are 8th in the table but it's now three league games without a win for the Hornets. The club is likely safe from relegation this season so you'd think they're the exact sort of side along with your Everton, Bournemouth, and Leicester etc that would be keen to give the FA Cup a real go.

There isn't much form for us to reflect on coming into this game. Woking lost by three goals when they last played a team in the Football League. Watford also won by three goals when they last played lower league opposition at this round of this competition. I have a feeling this game could end in a similar manner.

Watford -2 @ 2.50 with Betfair

Watford to Win to Nil @ 1.97 with MarathonBet

@willie82, I hope you didn't back us today. Warnock never reveals much about his side before cup games but you know he'll at best mix it up. I felt he should have given more fringe and youth players a start. Playing half reserve players and half first team players just meant we lost any cohesion. Even giving reserve players a go would have held some cohesion because they are playing in the reserves every week. Nevermind, disappointing loss but not surprising.

[StevieDay1983]

Newport County vs Leicester

The 4:30pm kick-off today in the FA Cup 3rd Round is another tasty clash when last season's surprise cup package Newport County host Leicester at Rodney Parade. Mike Flynn's side were impressive in last year's competition but can they cause an upset again here?

Newport County have had a rollercoaster history that includes going out of business, relegation, promotion, winning titles in England and Wales, and cup giant-killings. Former players and managers include Alf Sherwood, Terry Butcher, and John Sheridan. It's a club that's seen it all. The club is currently 13th in League Two but it's mediocrity and calm that the fans will undoubtedly not be taking for granted after recent spells in the non-league.

Leicester have also had their heartbreak this season but Claude Puel has managed to keep the Foxes on a steady path when they could very easily have collapsed under the tragedy experienced. The club is 7th in the Premier League and almost reached the EFL Cup Semi-Finals. However, some fans are calling for Puel to be removed... which is astonishing.

If you're coming into this game expecting goals then prepared to be disappointed. 5 of Leicester's last 6 matches in the FA Cup have seen less than 3 goals scored. 10 of their last 14 cup games have seen less than 3 goals scored. If that wasn't enough to persuade you to back a low-scoring game then just 1 of their last 14 competitive matches has seen 3 goals or more scored. I'm not expecting Newport to bring the attacking flair in this game either.

Based on those stats and having seen both Newport and Leicester play this season I can honestly say this could be a really dour affair. Newport will look to make it a war of attrition and Leicester probably won't see a replay as the worst thing given their safe position in the Premier League and distance off the European spots.

Leicester HT/FT @ 1.83 with Betway

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.65 with Unibet

[cluelessG]

I just read that Hull City have made 8 changes to their starting lineup while Millwall have only made 2. So despite Hull's excellent form, I am going for the home win - odds slightly above evens.

[allthethings]

After the last-play PK by Portsmouth robbed me of my second draw, I'm back with two more: Millwall-Hull X 3.37 and Preston-Doncaster X 3.56.

[Neubs]

Today i think Away Teams are good Choice. For me i have Oldham +1.5 and small the Oldham win. No really BIG Surprises here in this Round, so maybe Oldham can made it....

Also i´m on Under 3 Goals in Sheffield-Barnet Game and on DC of the Away Teams in Preston-Doncaster and Milwall-Hull Games....

And also my Main Bet for today is a Combo from Watford AHC-1.5 and Leicester to Win... First Leicester i´m afraid off, but after there good Games in League and without any danger about relegation they can take this serious today and will made it...

[betcatalog]

If Liverpool's hierarchy is in line, obviously the cup is going to third place after the championship and the Champions League. Unfortunate at this stage to fall on a good team like Wolves and even away. It may be that Coop's coach has made some changes in his original composition and the "Reds" do not have the enormous quality bench. Wolves' hosts have a qualifying set and can compete against their current opponent
WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS vs LIVERPOOL FC @@ +0.50 AH WOLVERHAMPTON, odds 2.05

[waynecoyne]

With van dijk expected to be rested and maybe fabinho playing centre back liverpool could be vulnerable aerially.

Willy Boly has 2 goals in 21 games and scored v spurs recently.

I have bought his goal minutes at 4 with sporting index and backed him first goalscorer at 60/1 and also last goalscorer at 60/1

ladbrokes boosted.

[StevieDay1983]

Wolves vs Liverpool

The FA Cup 3rd Round action comes to a close tonight when Premier League clubs Wolves and Liverpool go head-to-head at Molineux for this 7:45pm kick-off. Will we see yet another upset after yesterday's drama or can the Reds put their defeat to Manchester City behind them to prevail victorious?

Wolves are performing well back in the top flight after a prolonged absence. Nuno Santo's side are 9th and only need a handful of wins to confirm their spot in the top division of English football for next season. The club is enduring an inconsistent run of form with 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 defeats in their last 4 league games. However, they have taken points against a number of big teams this season including Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham, and Chelsea.

Liverpool remain top of the Premier League with a 4 point advantage over rivals Manchester City despite their defeat in their last league game. It was a first defeat of the season for Jurgen Klopp's team and the big question now will be how well they can bounce back after that loss? They beat Wolves 2-0 in this fixture in the league just before Christmas so that match will still be relatively fresh in the players' minds.

The Reds boast the superior head-to-head record over recent meetings. Liverpool have won 4 and lost 2 of the last six encounters between the two teams. This could be a dull affair with Wolves seeing less than three goals scored in 9 of their 12 competitive home games this season and Liverpool only seeing more than two goals scored in 7 of their 14 away competitive matches this campaign.

As a few of you have mentioned, the FA Cup is likely to be down the pecking order for Liverpool this season. It's very much a season built around the Premier League and Champions League. I think we can expect Liverpool to rest a number of players. Wolves are stuck in the middle of the table without much realistic hope of Europe or relegation. I can see the home side really going for this tonight and potentially springing a surprise win... although I'm not sure it would be that surprising if Liverpool field a weaker side.

Wolves Draw No Bet @ 3.00 with William Hill

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.12 with MarathonBet