PL Tips Top Tracks 2019

[BillyHills]

Start of a new year start of a new thread.

As previously discussed this is an attempt to narrow down the amount of selections thrown up by the PL Tips. I have been tracking the performance at every race course since we started the Tips in August 2016. It is quite clear that some tracks consistently perform well and others the very opposite. I have no idea why this is so but figures don't normally lie when tested in full.

One thing I have noticed is that some races or instances the performance dips so this year I am going one step further and attempting to omit the worst offenders. I accept we will miss some winners along the way by doing this.

Races or instances to leave alone - (this may be added to over time)

1. Bumpers
2. Sellers
3. Claimers
4. Odds On favourites
5. Novices/Maidens where fancied horse(s) have not ran before
(discretion will be applied here rather than any exact ruling)
6. Hunter Chases

All bets will be staked at 10pts win or 5pts EW
Prices will be from bet365 or PP at the time of the post in this thread, these may differ from the Tips page as these are published between 4.30 and 6pm.

[TimmyB]

Thanks @BillyHills - just wondering if you will be running the analysis of the Top 10 courses on the basis of your narrowed down criteria, and if it has made much of a difference in terms of the courses that come out best?

[BillyHills]

Top Tracks for January

Calendar (AW may add fixtures at late notice)

Jan 1 Catterick, Musselburgh
Jan 2 Newcastle
Jan 3 Chelmsford
Jan 4 Kempton
Jan 5 Newcastle, Wincanton, Kempton
Jan 6 Newcastle
Jan 7 Musselburgh
Jan 8 Newcastle
Jan 9 Taunton, Kempton
Jan 10 Catterick, Chelmsford
Jan 12 Newcastle, Kempton
Jan 13 Kelso
Jan 15 Newcastle, Kempton
Jan 16 Kempton
Jan 17 Newcastle, Wincanton
Jan 18 Musselburgh, Kempton
Jan 19 Ascot, Taunton
Jan 22 Kelso, Newcastle
Jan 23 Catterick, Kempton
Jan 24 Chelmsford
Jan 25 Newcastle
Jan 26 Chelmsford
Jan 28 Kempton
Jan 29 Newcastle
Jan 31 Newcastle, Wincanton

 

 

[BillyHills]

3 minutes ago, TimmyB said:

Thanks @BillyHills - just wondering if you will be running the analysis of the Top 10 courses on the basis of your narrowed down criteria, and if it has made much of a difference in terms of the courses that come out best?

Timmy, In a word, No I have not done a complete analysis using these omissions. Its quite difficult to do with the way the spreadsheet saves the data at the minute. I am told this will improve during 2019 so a more in depth look may be possible.
Lets just say its a gut feeling having done thousands of races and having to settle the results for the sheets. I know where i'm wasting money more times than not, if that makes sense. This happens on all courses so I don't think it will have any impact on what gets into the top 10 to be honest.

One thing I will be doing this year is keeping a track of every type of race for the included selections, whether its Flat, NH, Class 3 or Class 6, handicap or graded etc.... and after a while that may also throw up something.

Cheers

[TimmyB]

Thanks, that's really helpful. It's been an interesting first year betting on the horses and I've learnt loads from you and many others on the site. Here's to an even better 2019 - and I may even find some time to enter my own selections in the naps comp!

[BillyHills]

50 minutes ago, TimmyB said:

Thanks, that's really helpful. It's been an interesting first year betting on the horses and I've learnt loads from you and many others on the site. Here's to an even better 2019 - and I may even find some time to enter my own selections in the naps comp!

Yes Timmy, you should enter mate

I'm doing bigger prices in that comp this year!!

[BillyHills]

Time	Track	Race Type	Class	Horse		Odds
12.25	Catterick	Novices Hurdle	Class 4	Tight Call (IRE)		3.00
1.00	Catterick	Handicap Hurdle	Class 4	Frozon	EW	11.00
1.35	Catterick	Novices Chase	Class 4	Braavos	EW	9.00
2.45	Catterick	Handicap Chase	Class 4	Manwell (IRE)		2.88
3.20	Catterick	Handicap Hurdle	Class 5	Samtu (IRE)		8.50
12.30	Musselburgh	Novices Hurdle	Class 4	Liva (IRE)		3.50
1.05	Musselburgh	Handicap Hurdle	Class 3	Dans Le Vent (FR)		2.75
1.40	Musselburgh	Handicap Chase	Class 2	Forth Bridge		4.50
2.15	Musselburgh	Handicap Hurdle	Class 2	Chica Buena (IRE)		5.00
2.50	Musselburgh	Handicap Hurdle	Class 4	Kajaki (IRE)		2.25
3.25	Musselburgh	Handicap Chase	Class 4	Always Lion (IRE)		3.50

[BillyHills]

Results
Manwell Won 9/4, Tight Call NR

Disappointing start with 4 2nd's at Musselburgh!!
We did miss a 2/5 loser though!!

Stakes: 110pts
Returns: 42.50pts
Total (67.50)

 

[BillyHills]

 

3.35 Newcastle Maiden Class 5 Ice Pyramid (IRE) 2.88 4.10 Newcastle Handicap Class 4 Breaking Records (IRE) 5.50 4.45 Newcastle Novices Class 5 Fiction Writer (USA) 2.88 5.15 Newcastle Handicap Class 5 Popping Corks (IRE) 8.00 5.45 Newcastle Handicap Class 5 Newmarket Warrior 3.00 6.15 Newcastle Handicap Class 5 Rey Loopy (IRE) 5.50 6.45 Newcastle Handicap Class 4 Royal Prospect (IRE) 3.00 7.15 Newcastle Handicap Class 6 Windforpower (IRE) 5.50

[Brekstel]

Makes sense for BH to focus on the more reliable courses and race types. Just out of interest and not that you'd need it with the PL Tips delivering, does anyone on the forum use software to decide on bets? I've thought about it in the past but never looked into it in any depth.

Re the 2/5 loser, it never ceases to amaze me how many odd-ons horses (and I don't back odds-on myself) go down. Someone somewhere is decreeing these horses are more or less a shoo-in yet in reality a sizeable percentage don't live up to expectations, to say the least, and no doubt many punters fall for it.   

[BillyHills]

11 hours ago, Brekstel said:

Makes sense for BH to focus on the more reliable courses and race types. Just out of interest and not that you'd need it with the PL Tips delivering, does anyone on the forum use software to decide on bets? I've thought about it in the past but never looked into it in any depth.

Re the 2/5 loser, it never ceases to amaze me how many odd-ons horses (and I don't back odds-on myself) go down. Someone somewhere is decreeing these horses are more or less a shoo-in yet in reality a sizeable percentage don't live up to expectations, to say the least, and no doubt many punters fall for it.   

Figures will tell you that about 65% of odds on favourites win but in certain types of race they are very vulnerable and very poor value. In races where all of the form is tried and tested like Group races for instance they are more reliable. Beats me why some people want to back an odds on shot in a seller though!

Re: Software
Not sure mate, I suppose systems are similar, anything that takes the emotion out of selecting horses is good for me! I much prefer a set of figures telling me which horse to back ie: my ratings

[BillyHills]

Update later

 

4.45	Chelmsford City	Handicap	Class 6	Steal The Scene (IRE) EW	13.00
5.20	Chelmsford City	Handicap	Class 4	Lacan (IRE) EW	10.00
5.55	Chelmsford City	Handicap	Class 2	Royal Birth	5.50
6.25	Chelmsford City	Handicap	Class 4	Shamshon (IRE)	5.00
6.55	Chelmsford City	Handicap	Class 6	Mr Potter	5.00
7.25	Chelmsford City	Handicap	Class 6	Konigin	7.00
7.55	Chelmsford City	Handicap	Class 6	Sharp Operator EW	9.00

[Brekstel]

A couple of queries on odds....I recall reading on a previous thread that 6/4 was the minimum price to take for (top ten tracks) PL tips. Is this generally found to be the case? Another poster said he backs anything 6/1 or above each way, albeit it's 8/1 and above which is advised e-w for PL bets. 6/1-15/2 single bet wins are nice - especially when the odds drift - but it's also frustrating when you see a few of them placing and you've backed win only. 

Edited January 3, 2019 by Brekstel

[BillyHills]

1 hour ago, Brekstel said:

A couple of queries on odds....I recall reading on a previous thread that 6/4 was the minimum price to take for (top ten tracks) PL tips. Is this generally found to be the case? Another poster said he backs anything 6/1 or above each way, albeit it's 8/1 and above which is advised e-w for PL bets. 6/1-15/2 single bet wins are nice - especially when the odds drift - but it's also frustrating when you see a few of them placing and you've backed win only. 

No idea mate, none of these recommendations were mine. I leave it up to the individual to bet them how they like. I know some will bet anything 5/1 or over EW as its a money back job if its placed etc.....
The 8/1 is just something we came up with as a cut-off point for EW bets, we had to start somewhere and thats a point I think the majority would accept as a fair marker for an EW bet. 

[BillyHills]

Ok results time

Not a great start to the year, we had our first 'missed' bet today when the fav in the first drifted to odds against and won. Although the race was omitted for 2 reasons, it was odds on last night and the main danger was a debutant so i'm happy with the decision.

Newcastle: Ray Loopy 9/2
Chelmsford: Shamshon 4/1

Loss of 55pts on the 2 days
Totals: (122.50)

 

[BillyHills]

Kempton: Third Race omitted due to odds on fav.

 

2.10	Kempton	Handicap	Class 6	Mr Potter	EW	15.00
2.45	Kempton	Handicap	Class 5	Choral Music		8.50
3.50	Kempton	Handicap	Class 3	Chiefofchiefs		4.33
4.20	Kempton	Non-Handicap	Class 2	Sunsprite (IRE)		4.50
4.50	Kempton	Handicap	Class 6	Arlecchinos Arc		7.50
5.20	Kempton	Handicap	Class 6	Gorhams Cave	EW	15.00

[BillyHills]

Results
Mr Potter NR
Chiefofchiefs Won 100/30 (op 13/2 last night!)
Sunsprite NR
Gorhams Cave 3rd 14/1

Stakes 60pts
Returns: 85.83pts
Totals: (96.67)pts

*Just realised i missed Sharp Operator EW the other day and settled it as a loser.
Should have been £15 returns and not a £10 loss

Totals (71.67)pts
 

[BillyHills]

Big day coming up

2 races omitted : 415 Kempton (Maiden no form) 310 Wincanton (Bumper)

 

4.45	Kempton	Handicap	Class 6	Elysian Lady	EW	11.00
5.15	Kempton	Handicap	Class 6	Molten Lava (IRE)		7.50
5.45	Kempton	Handicap	Class 3	Ventura Blues (IRE)	EW	10.00
6.15	Kempton	Handicap	Class 2	Castlelyons (IRE)	EW	11.00
6.45	Kempton	Handicap	Class 4	Wedding Date		3.25
7.15	Kempton	Handicap	Class 5	Moon of Baroda	EW	10.00
7.45	Kempton	Handicap	Class 6	Power Home (IRE)	EW	12.00

 

11.55	Newcastle	Handicap Hurdle	Class 4	Suggestion		3.50
12.25	Newcastle	Novices Chase	Class 4	Hawk High (IRE)		5.00
12.55	Newcastle	Novices Hurdle	Class 4	Lord Of The Rock (IRE)		3.00
1.30	Newcastle	Handicap Chase	Class 5	Outnumbered (IRE)		4.50
2.00	Newcastle	Handicap Hurdle	Class 5	Petite Ganache (IRE)		4.00
2.35	Newcastle	Handicap Chase	Class 3	Thedrinkymeister (IRE)		3.25

 

12.30	Wincanton	Handicap Hurdle	Class 4	Desiremoi Dauthie (FR)	EW	9.00
1.05	Wincanton	Handicap Nov Chase	Class 4	Lex Talionis	EW	13.00
1.35	Wincanton	Novices Hurdle	Class 4	Caro Des Flos	EW	9.00
2.05	Wincanton	Handicap Nov Chase	Class 3	Caltex (FR)		6.50
2.40	Wincanton	Handicap Hurdle	Class 3	Tight Call (IRE)	EW	13.00
3.15	Wincanton	Handicap Chase	Class 2	Theinval (FR)		6.50
3.50	Wincanton	Maiden Hurdle	Class 5	Le Ligerien (FR)		5.00

[BillyHills]

Results
KP:  Castlelyons 2nd 10/1
NC: Hawk High Won 4/1 (R4), Petite Ganache Won 3/1
WN: Desiremoi Dauthie 2nd 8/1, Caro Des Flos NR, Tight Call 2nd 12/1

Stakes: 200pts
Returns: 136pts
Totals: (135.67)pts

[BillyHills]

Sunday
Omitted 300 Kheros as first 2 in market are debutants.

 

1.00	Newcastle	Handicap	Class 6	Galileos Spear (FR)		5.00
1.30	Newcastle	Handicap	Class 6	Something Brewing (FR)		6.50
2.00	Newcastle	Handicap	Class 5	Tor	EW	9.00
2.30	Newcastle	Handicap	Class 5	Mr Carbonator		7.50
3.30	Newcastle	Handicap	Class 4	Fuwairt (IRE)		4.50

[BillyHills]

Just a NR at Newcastle (40pts)

Only 3 at Musselburgh tomorrow

First 2 races are odds on favs, Ontopoftheworld and Nefyn Point
Last race is a Bumper (Alright Sunshine)

 

 

1.55	Musselburgh	Handicap Nov Chase	Class 4	Henrys Joy (IRE)		3.00
2.25	Musselburgh	Handicap Hurdle	Class 4	Sarvi		4.50
3.00	Musselburgh	Handicap Hurdle	Class 4	Tyrell (IRE)	EW	21.00

[BillyHills]

Results

Henrys Joy Won 9/4
Stakes 30pts
Returns 32.50pts
Totals: (173.17)

 

[BillyHills]

2 races omitted
545 Set Piece (odds on), 645 Lorna Cole (odds on)

 

3.40	Newcastle	Handicap	Class 5	Archive (FR)	EW	13.00
4.10	Newcastle	Handicap	Class 6	King Oswald (USA)	EW	10.00
4.45	Newcastle	Handicap	Class 3	Woodside Wonder		6.50
5.15	Newcastle	Handicap	Class 3	Outrage		4.50
6.15	Newcastle	Handicap	Class 6	Cherry Oak (IRE)		5.00
7.15	Newcastle	Handicap	Class 5	Wiff Waff		5.00

[BillyHills]

Update later

325 Taun omitted = Hunter Chase/odds on
 

Wed

4.15	Kempton	Handicap	Class 7	Be Bold	EW	11.00
4.45	Kempton	Novices	Class 5	Enchanting Man		2.88
5.15	Kempton	Handicap	Class 5	Emma Point (USA)	EW	11.00
5.45	Kempton	Handicap	Class 5	Magic Mirror		4.50
6.15	Kempton	Non-Handicap	Class 2	Corinthia Knight (IRE)		3.75
6.45	Kempton	Handicap	Class 6	Nananita (IRE)		4.50
7.15	Kempton	Handicap	Class 6	Viola Park		6.50
7.45	Kempton	Handicap	Class 4	Human Nature (IRE)		3.25
1.10	Taunton	Novices Hurdle	Class 4	Sign Of War (IRE)		5.50
1.45	Taunton	Maiden Hurdle	Class 4	Le Ligerien (FR)		3.75
2.20	Taunton	Handicap Chase	Class 3	Still Believing (IRE)		3.25
2.55	Taunton	Handicap Chase	Class 3	Style De Garde (FR)		3.50
4.00	Taunton	Handicap Hurdle	Class 5	Milldean Silva (IRE)		3.00

[BillyHills]

Results

Pretty hopeless at the moment!!

Just 1 winner at 11/2 and a place at 17/2 : 80.63
Loss: 109.37 

Totals: (282.54)pts
 

[BillyHills]

12.25	Catterick	Hurdle	Class 4	Travel Lightly		3.25
1.00	Catterick	Handicap Novices Hurdle	Class 4	Come On Charlie		2.50
2.45	Catterick	Handicap Chase	Class 3	Same Circus (IRE)		4.50
3.15	Catterick	Handicap Hurdle	Class 4	New List	EW	10.00
3.50	Catterick	Handicap Hurdle	Class 4	The Steward (USA)		7.50

 

 

4.15	Chelmsford City	Handicap	Class 5	Caledonia Duchess	EW	11.00
4.45	Chelmsford City	Handicap	Class 7	Ertidaad (IRE)		8.00
5.15	Chelmsford City	Novices	Class 4	Themaxwecan (IRE)		4.50
5.50	Chelmsford City	Handicap	Class 4	Global Art		7.00
6.25	Chelmsford City	Handicap	Class 5	Enthaar		4.50
6.55	Chelmsford City	Handicap	Class 6	Caledonia Laird		7.00
7.25	Chelmsford City	Handicap	Class 6	Your Band		3.50
7.55	Chelmsford City	Handicap	Class 6	Poppy May (IRE)		6.00

[BillyHills]

Results

Cat: -50pts
Chl: +5pts
Totals: (327.54)pts

[BillyHills]

Sat

Omit 500 Newcastle

 

3.30	Newcastle	Handicap	Class 7	Good Man (IRE)		5.50
4.00	Newcastle	Handicap	Class 4	Glory of Paris (IRE)		3.75
4.30	Newcastle	Handicap	Class 6	Molten Lava (IRE)		5.00
5.00	Newcastle	Novices	Class 4	Kareena Kapoor		1.72
5.30	Newcastle	Handicap	Class 3	Azzeccagarbugli (IRE)		2.75
6.00	Newcastle	Handicap	Class 4	Helovaplan (IRE)		4.50
6.30	Newcastle	Handicap	Class 5	Capla Demon	EW	9.00
7.00	Newcastle	Handicap	Class 6	Giacomo Casanova	EW	13.00
12.20	Kempton	Hurdle	Class 4	Tiffin Top		3.25
12.55	Kempton	Novices Hurdle	Class 3	Lomachenko		2.10
1.30	Kempton	Handicap Chase	Class 3	Amour de Nuit (IRE)		2.50
2.05	Kempton	Chase	Listed Race	Top Notch (FR)		2.63
2.40	Kempton	Handicap Hurdle	Listed Race	Doux Pretender (FR)		8.50
3.15	Kempton	Handicap Chase	Class 2	Barney Dwan (IRE)		4.00
3.45	Kempton	Handicap Hurdle	Class 3	Oakley		4.50

[BillyHills]

Results

NC: Won 12/1 EW
KP: Won 13/8, Won 9/2

Stakes: 140pts
Returns 163.25pts
Totals: (304.29)pts

 

[BillyHills]

Sunday 

Omit first race - odds on

 

12.30	Kelso	Novices Hurdle	Class 4	Skandiburg (FR)		1.63
1.00	Kelso	Novices Hurdle	Class 4	Lord Yeats		2.10
1.35	Kelso	Handicap Hurdle	Class 2	Martila (FR)		3.25
2.05	Kelso	Handicap Chase	Class 2	Mount Mews (IRE)		3.25
2.40	Kelso	Handicap Hurdle	Class 5	Choochoobugaloo		2.25
3.10	Kelso	Handicap Chase	Class 3	Groundunderrepair		3.25
3.40	Kelso	Handicap Chase	Class 4	Achill Road Boy (IRE)		2.50