CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - January 7 - January 13

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ATP Auckland Marco Ceccinato to beat Tennys Sandgren @2.10 with Bet365

Marco is the number 3 seed here and is coming off a semi final run at Doha so seems to be flying under the radar.

Tennys is favourite tonight but plays his best tennis in the US, imo.

I also think it's worth a punt on Marco in the outright market @17.00 ew. (half the odds to reach the final) with Corals.

good luck all  :ok

Edited by yogg
I forgot to mention the bookies name.

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On 7.1.2019. at 8:41 PM, DrO said:

While i'm still thinking about Olga's match i did find something interesting in Men Q

C. Ruud - H.Laaksonen under 22.5 games @1.95 (local)
I think that bookies have something wrong here. Laaksonen's game is more suitable for indoor conditions than outdoor hard courts. And h2h is also speaking in favour of this bet 'cause Ruud have beaten him twice in relatively easy fashion. The last match was just a week ago at Playford Challenger and Casper won 63 64. I don't see what could change for Henri in 7 days.

Obviously the match did not go as I expected, but I guess that wining bet is all that counts. :lol

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Luck is not on our side atm, so, if that bet is going to fail I'll definitely stop posting picks. My bet is especially against Maden, because he has a pathetic preparation including some serious health problems. I see no reason for such high odds on Baldi and take him with high stakes at pinnacle. Gl if someone follows.

Tennis - ATP Australian Open - Qualifiers  VZ - 1X2  Yannick Maden - vs - Filippo Baldi

Filippo Baldi @ 3.17 Pinnacle

10/10

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Following you on this one @eros. Let's hope it goes better than the last one 

Now, for my first pick. From Hobart,  Kenin S - vs - Jabeur O

Kenin S, @1.81 Unibet

She had 2 good games at Auckland, although she lost against Kuzmova, and now she edged Garcia (although not in her best shape). I reckon she has enough for Jabeur and the odds seem good to me

Good luck

 

Edited by Cormo

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Ayeni is a total disaster, maybe talented but totaly stupid guy. Total fail but I believe that is time to recover.

Australian Open Qualifications

Korda S. - Soeda G. bet: 1 @3,50 (Bet365)/ stake 5/10

Sebastian Korda is no doubt very talented player. One year ago he was ranked as top junior on the worth. Also a year ago he did the best achievment of his career so far- won  youth Australian Open so now is time to start a serious career (maybe not correct words because in 2018 he played already professional tournaments but I meant that now he should raise a lot in ranking in really short time). First opponent Go Soeda was quite solid, ranked 47th but it was in ..2012. Currently he is 34 years old and slowly going down, his results are not impressive and I believe Korda is capable to win here.

Australian Open Qualifications Womens

Rodionova A.- Muchova K. bet: 1 @5,74 (Pinnacle)/ stake 5/10

I don't get these odds. Karolina Muchova is still young (22 years old) but probably never will be top player, in my opinion is not even material for top 50. What's more she rarely plays on hard courts as it is not her favorit one. Arina Rodionova till 2014 was Russian but since then she is under Australian flag and here residence is Melbourne so motivation is 100% and what means she should feels great on those courts and also hard surface is her natural where she plays all the time so I believe her chances are much bigger then odds suggest.

 

 

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John Isner to beat Taylor Fritz @ 1.53 with bet365

Seems like a freebie at this price.

taylor fritz played a good match before and served well last match but hasn’t received well 

on the other side John loves Auckland, never lost to fritz rarely goes out early there and just had the best season of his career..

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1 hour ago, aussietennisexpert said:

John Isner to beat Taylor Fritz @ 1.53 with bet365

Seems like a freebie at this price.

taylor fritz played a good match before and served well last match but hasn’t received well 

on the other side John loves Auckland, never lost to fritz rarely goes out early there and just had the best season of his career..

Hmm that was a bad pick. He managed to lose both tie break without ever being in the lead 

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Cameron Norrie to beat Taylor Fritz at 2.20 with Unibet

This is the one pick that's standing out for me the most today, especially with Unibet going a bit higher than others. Norrie is in a splendid form, having beaten Tsitsipas in the Hopman Cup and then two tough opponents in Auckland, while Fritz was hardly convincing against Copil before beating Isner in two boring TBs. Norrie is a better defender than both of those and should have a good chance of winning in the current form.

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7 hours ago, Cormo said:

Not your best form @PrivateTips :(

Kenin won. I'll look for another bet today, let's see if smth winks at me

Strange results again, sorry if somebody followed-  Rodionova had her moment in second set where she had balls to lead 5:2 but instead of these we had 4:6... I don't get Sebastian Korda, guy whose main weapon should be his serve and it was absolutely horrible. I liked to bet on underdogs but recently no luck with me so I will try to share some lower-odds bets but more confident.

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Schwartzmann to beat Nishioka @ 1.75 SportingBet

I think bookies are over-reacting to Nishioka's win over Rublev, who didn't seem to be near his best. Schwartzmann, known for his return game, should be able to easily overcome Nishioka.

Edited by South_African_Punter

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Double parlay for me tonight

Iga Swiatek (vs.Bolsova Zadionov) + Badosa Gilbert (vs.Raina) @2.10 (local)

Swiatek is talented girl on the beginning of her professional career. She showed that she's very strong mentally as well,overturning the match with Olga Danilovic,winning tie-break in the decider. Iga won in the only match they played last year on Pelham ITF 62 61. It was on the clay,and i suppose that this surface will be even bigger advantage for Polish girl.
Badosa i think is better player than Raina and i really like her result in the previous round where she won over Denisa Allertova. 

GL:hope
 

Edited by DrO

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1 hour ago, South_African_Punter said:

Schwartzmann to beat Nishioka @ 1.75 SportingBet

I think bookies are over-reacting to Nishioka's win over Rublev, who didn't seem to be near his best. Schwartzmann, known for his return game, should be able to easily overcome Nishioka.

We think on the same way. 

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Ashleigh Barty (-2,5 games) to beat Kiki Bertens at 1.83 with 888

Finally, I will post one bet for this week. I think Barty is better player in this surface than Kiki. He has played against Ostapenko (6-3, 6-3), Halep (6-4, 6-4) and Mertens (6-3, 6-3). Kiki has played only 2 matches against easier players, Bernarda Pera (7-5, 6-4) and Putintseva (6-2, 6-2). Barty dominates 2-0 the h2h against Kiki (6-3 and 6-1 in the Canadian Master 2018 and 2-6, 6-3 and 7-5 in Brisbane 2014), both matches played in hard. The last reason is that Barty plays at home so the crowd will be with her.

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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Cameron Norrie to beat Jan-Lennard Struff at 2.06 with Marathon

Both guys have been playing really well recently, but Norrie has been a touch better imo and he should also be much fresher for this one after Struff's epic against PCB. 

+ Struff is playing the double as well I think.

 

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2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Cameron Norrie to beat Jan-Lennard Struff at 2.06 with Marathon

Both guys have been playing really well recently, but Norrie has been a touch better imo and he should also be much fresher for this one after Struff's epic against PCB. 

It's 1.66 already at Unibet :(

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Week 2 is already over for me, i close the book for the week and i only take one bet this week and i think it was a smart decision as the tournaments went really strange, also AO qualies were really tough although i didn't follow that closely as i was too busy with my job including a two day travel to London till yesterday.

WEEK 2

WON: 1
VOID: 0
LOST: 0
STAKED: 4
BACK: 7.42
BALANCE: +3.42
YIELD: 85.5%

 

Overall

WON: 18
VOID: 0
LOST: 21
STAKED: 135
BACK: 162.3
BALANCE: +27.3
YIELD: 20%
 

Good luck everyone for the last three days of the week and keep up the good work in here guys.:ok

Next week we'll have a big big amount of work to do ...i am already taking my first bets, i hope we have a good discussion over in the Open topic.

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Renzo Olivo (+5.5) to beat Ilya Ivashka at 1.82 with Pinnacle

I've already spent way too much time thinking about this one, so let's just throw it in and hope for the best. I liked Olivo back a few years ago and, even though he had a really crappy 2018, there's clearly still some talent in his body given his good performances this week. Trusting his fairly small frame on a hard court is a bit tough given how well Ivashka can serve, but the handicap compensates for that at 5.5, which is - in general - really high in men's tennis. The bet is more about my gut feeling at the end of the day.

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19 hours ago, darko08 said:

Ashleigh Barty (-2,5 games) to beat Kiki Bertens at 1.83 with 888

Finally, I will post one bet for this week. I think Barty is better player in this surface than Kiki. He has played against Ostapenko (6-3, 6-3), Halep (6-4, 6-4) and Mertens (6-3, 6-3). Kiki has played only 2 matches against easier players, Bernarda Pera (7-5, 6-4) and Putintseva (6-2, 6-2). Barty dominates 2-0 the h2h against Kiki (6-3 and 6-1 in the Canadian Master 2018 and 2-6, 6-3 and 7-5 in Brisbane 2014), both matches played in hard. The last reason is that Barty plays at home so the crowd will be with her.

 by 0.5 game but it's in :lol

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The Sasnovich - Kvitova match has been delayed at least 1 hour 25 minutes due to storms in Sydney. 2.75 on Sasnovich wouldn't be out of the question given Kvitova has defended her points from last year and given storms are predicted for rest of tonight

Chances are it'll be delayed until tomorrow if forecasts are correct (right now in Sydney thunder and lightning, medium to heavy rain)

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Tennys Sandgren to beat (-1.5 sets) Cameron Norrie at 3.45 with Unibet

Can resist this juicy price on Tennys as straight sets winner. He's been great this week and Cameron is in his first final with less experience. He's at home where he grew up in Auckland but that should just mean he'll maybe have nerves playing a part in this match and he wasn't looking so convincing in the semi acctually. He may have won the match and qualified for his hometown tournaments final but that could be where it ends big time. Tennys have played some solid tennis this week, just look at how he knocked Phil Kohli off the court and he reached his first final last season in Houston and could play more relaxed here and he's got a better chance of winning a title this time. Cameron will probably get more chances for titles. They have met several times on the challenger tour with Cameron winning most of the times and once in the Tiburon final where Cameron won in straight sets. Tennys won in straight sets once in those meetings and once in 3 but my feeling says Tennys will take it this time in straight sets.

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • Mr Magill 505 taunton 12/1 bet365
    • Denis Istomin to beat Lukas Lacko at 1.50 with Unibet Denis has a 7-1 lead in this matchup and I'd be surprised to see him lose this one honestly. Lukas should encounter enough problems for him to lose this matchup again. I see no big obstacles for Denis not to win this so 1.50 is fair enough and should be taken.
    • One little Accy i like too. Bingham was talking on a podcast about this being a "bonus" tournament and he has done what he needs to qualfy for Sheffield. Screams to me that he will lay down for Ronnie. Robertson could easily cover this handicap and Trump, although Williams is abit of value, should beat Williams in all reality. 2pts J. Trump -2.5, N. Robertson -1.5 & R. O'sullivan -3.5  10/1 Ladbrokes
    • Parlay at 7.30 with Unibet Paolo Lorenzi to beat (+3.5) Felix Auger-Aliassime at 2.28 See above Mike Ymer to beat Noah Rubin at 1.75 See above Kristyna Pliskova to beat Yanina Wickmayer at 1.83 Kristyna met Yanina just last week in Guadalajara and won in a deciding set tie-break and I'm of the opinion that Yanina just won her last match because her opponent was tired after winning Guadalajara 125k. She'll encounter a lot more problems to deal with now.
    • Today we have Judd Trump Vs Mark Williams and Neil Robertson takes on Selby at 1pm and tonight Ronnie takes on Bingham. The evening game will carry over to tomorrow. I'm going to leave the Trump Vs Williams match, but I do see value in Robertson to beat Selby at over evens. Selby likes the longer format, but he's in no form right now and certainly not in the same form as Robertson. 5pts N.Robertson to beat M.Selby 11/10 bet365
    • Mikael Ymer to beat Noah Rubin at 1.75 with Unibet Mike has already beaten Noah once and it was in the challenger final of Noumea this season in straight sets and judging by the way he played in last match I'd say he's good enough to win this one.
    • Paolo Lorenzi to beat (+3.5) Felix Auger Aliassime at 2.28 with Unibet I like Paolos chances in this matchup. Felix is still a rather crude talent and if he had troubles to beat Luca Vanni he'll have even more troubles this match, at least enough troubles to not be able to cover this handicap. Paolo is quite a stable player from the baseline, he's similar to Pablo Cuevas and his game is working well enough on this hardcourt in Miami for him to withstand any possible onslaught from Felix. I'll try this handicap to see how good Paolo is right now and I already know Paolo isn't bad. We'll see if he covers. 
    • Huntingdon 2.30 Deputy's Oscar 16/1 bet365 ew
    • Ilaya       2:10      Wetherby    18/1 @ Hills
    • 2.10 Wetherby - Think Ahead  25/1@paddypower
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