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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - December 29 - January 6

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First thing: Happy new year to the Tennis community in here. Great start of the season so far for us i think but let's keep the work up and continue like that.

Unlucky night / morning. Harrison losing a razor close match vs Kyrgios at massive odds, Bencic collapsing and blowing up a set lead and wasting a huge chance at 3-3 in the second set where she was 30-0 up at Williams serve. Futhermore the loss on Goransson was also a bit unlucky as he was playing very well in the first set and looked like a 1.5 favorite there but he couldn't hold up the pressure. But at least the two doubles bets won, of course with some luck as they went to the supertie and it's always like Russian roulette there. Murray by the way looked very solid. I am not quite convinced about him as i think Duckworth was playing not his best tennis and although i do rate him he was one of the softer opponents and Murray still wasn't looking sharp or something. But the odds on Medvedev not good enough to take in my opinion, backing him at 2.1 vs. Murray is a no way type. Maybe we'll get a better chance to go against Murray. 

Now there is one bet left with Arjun Kadhe in Pune and i am still very confident he beats Djere who is a solid claycourt player and of course can also play on hardcourt but lacking weapons and experience there while Kadhe played his complete college career on hardcourt and looks like one of the best prospects in India right now with a great serve and a stunning forehand. I followed him closely and i am still very confident. Maybe i will take some more of him inplay as the odds are stable so far (dropped about 0.2-0.3 ....)

Today i have another bet i really like:

Challenger Orlando

Ricardo Ojeda Lara @ 2.06 Pinnacle 3/10

I know Ojeda Lara had a bad second half in the 2018 season but obviously he was playing on a very decent level there and almost played challengers only, he lost to very good names there and i would not write him off because he has a bad streak on that level, this is a completly different matchup as Brouwer is almost a ITF only player has no experience on challenger level yet and he already is 22 years old. Brouwer is a lucky loser and Ojeda Lara in my opinion showed last year that he should be at a higher level than Brouwer. Still small stake as Brouwer already had a match this season in qualifying vs. decent opposition. But i favor Ojeda Lara here, odds should be at least reversed.

 

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No reason to thank me but nevertheless thanks for the nice words. A lot of people sharing their views & bets here (for years), they should receive the same amount of respect as i get and hopefully we can profit from each other and many other guys coming in and sharing their views, i think only together it's possible to beat the bookmakers longterm. It's a quite fun community here and no bad blood or something like in other communitys or even closed communitys. Good luck and the best to y'all.

btw: Goffin just is losing his first round match in Doha...i never expected that tbh...WOW

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ATP Brisbane doubles

R. Ram/J. Salisbury @ 1.92 Sbobet 3/10

Harrison is already out of the singles main draw as he lost a razor close match to Kyrgios last night. He'll lose tons of points as he reached the final in Brisbane last year and he will play qualifying in Auckland at the weekend so maybe he will go out here to travel to New Zealand comfortably. I know Brisbane - Auckland is a short flight about 3-4 hrs. but still tomorrow is Wednesday and he event will start on Saturday. Furthermore Dimitrov has to play a tough match before the doubles match vs. local hero Millman who looked very good in the first round and gave Dimitrov a hell of a match last year. Ram/Salisbury are both very good doubles player and looking solid enough to take it here but still there is a huge gap in class here so if Harrison/Dimitrov deciding to go full on their opponents it could be close but factors i mentioned above are giving me some kind of a good feeling to back the US-british pair.

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Donna Vekic to beat Kiki Bertens at 2.26 with Pinnacle

Has anyone been thinking about Donna Vekic tomorrow? I think she beats Kiki. Only ranking makes Kiki the favourite here.

Ajla Tomljanovic to beat Johanna Konta at 3.03 with Pinnacle

Can anyone give me a reason why Johanna is the big fav here?

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1 hour ago, eros said:

Because my personal herbert bet went well and saved my ass today I'll try the following bet:

Tennis - ATP Challenger Orlando - R2  VZ - 1X2  Alexander Sarkissian - vs - Johan Sebastien Tatlot

Tatlot @ 2.040 Pinnacle

6/10

 

I don't see how you can bet on a guy that lost to Marko Djokovic last season?

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3 hours ago, eros said:

Because my personal herbert bet went well and saved my ass today I'll try the following bet:

Tennis - ATP Challenger Orlando - R2  VZ - 1X2  Alexander Sarkissian - vs - Johan Sebastien Tatlot

Tatlot @ 2.040 Pinnacle

6/10

 

I don't know what made you bet on the frenchman here but well done

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Elina Svitolina + Julia Goerges at 1.73 with William Hill

Parlay with the defending champions. Svitolina won in Brisbane the last year while Goerges did the same in Auckland. Goerges will face Mona Barthel and Svitolina will face Sasnovich. Both players have to face players with similar styles than them but not as good as them, obviously. I think this can be a great year for Svitolina, who ended the season in the best possible way by winning the WTA Finals, beating there Kvitova, Pliskova, Wozniacki, Bertens and Stephens. Goerges convinced me with her opening game, destroying Johanna Larsson (6-0, 6-4).

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Probably pick is going to lose .. Welcome back @Darko08.. I have been very angry because I have some really good bets when these tournaments start and all that I list here is Fang Ying Xun .. A player I am not familiar with, and she was not impressive at all in the match vs Xinyu Wang. There was alot of underdogs that won the past couple of days .. well atleast on par for what is normal ..And to Opole .. I did see a chance with Goffin losing .. he really looks worn down at the end of last year, and I don't believe this tournament was important to him .. These Qatar courts are strange, and I believe Berankis had already beaten him twice... Maybe you guys remember Gerald Melzer playing well here a couple years ago or last year... Anyhow I'm going to take a punt on ..

Marton Fucsovics to beat Novak Djokovic @ 17.29 with Pinnacle

 Djokovic said he was tired after some exhibition matches in Abu Dhabi.. I seen some of his first round match vs Dzumhur.. He doesn't look to playing lights out tennis like he showed so many times.. I see some holes there, and if Marton Physical level is better .. He's going to blugeon the ball at Novak, and we could see him fold.. He's already won this tournament twice, and spending alot of energy here is risky, because he's needs a bit more rest for the rest of the year.. He is playing doubles after this match.. That scares me, but the same thing scared me when Kasatkina lost to Kimberly Birrell in Brisbane.. I'm not sure it matters when these doubles matches are scheduled.. He still has to win the singles match, and Fucsovics rolled straight sets in his opening match.. If this pick loses then I'm not posting here again until the Aussie open begins, and hope to have a full sheet for that tournament.. GL !! :)

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On 01/01/2019 at 11:53 AM, CzechPunter said:

Great work as always @opole, let's hope that Bencic doesn't choke and Happy New Year once again to all!

Anett Kontaveit to beat Petra Kvitova at 2.29 with Pinnacle

I'm not entire excited to go against Kvitova, but I just have to, I don't understand her skinny version at all, it just doesn't seem like the best fitness basis for her particular style and the match against Collins showed that she still has some way to go. Kontaveit will be fresh after dispatching a tricky opponent in style in the first round and she just looked better physically to me, so I'd have her at evens at most. Kvitova is a big name and I'd love to see her win some Grand Slams again, but she doesn't deserve this sort of favoritism imo.

great start Czechpunter, 2 bets 2 wins in 2019   !!!!!!!!

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Ajla Tomljanovic to beat Karolina Pliskova at 3.50 with bet365

Today Alja impressed me with her game against Konta (6-2, 7-6). She served extremely well, hitting the ball with power and holding long rallies. It won’t be easy for her but If she plays like she did today she can beat Karo. The crowd will be with her.

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Ajla Tomljanovic to beat Karolina Pliskova at 3.56 with Pinnacle

I've never been a big fan of the Pliskova sisters and Karolina was pretty mutch on her same level throughout the hole 2018 season. She doesn't take any steps forward to become as good as Petra Kvitova has been when she's won her grand slams. The consistent bad level of Karolina was seen in many matches last season and I think it's evident that she doesn't really have the extra gear to power her to the next level. Ajla is doing some good stuff consistently and worked hard for two years to be where she is ranked right now and with that work ethic I think she can win matches like this one in the coming three years. Ajla is ranked 46 because she's worked hard to get back from injury and 43 where she was at in October is probably not her career high. It will improve this season.

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Tomas Berdych to beat (-1.5 sets) Fernando Verdasco at 2.81 with Pinnacle

Tomas has a commanding 10-4 record over Nando and he's won the last 4 in a row. Last time 2012 on clay in Madrid and it's been 9 straight sets won for Tomas i this matchup. It's highly likely this is gonna end in a straight sets dominating win for Tomas judging by the way Tomas played in the first match. Tomas is a dangerous player when he's playing at his top level and he's quite close to that it seems like now.

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Dustin Brown to beat Gregoire Barrere at 1.80 with Ladbrokes

Brown has generally been fairly good in Challengers and it's hard not to like his two twins here, while Barrere's win over Galovic was the only good result from him for quite some time. Brown also beat him in their only previous meeting, so I like the price quite a lot.

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