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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - December 29 - January 6

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On 01/01/2019 at 11:53 AM, CzechPunter said:

Great work as always @opole, let's hope that Bencic doesn't choke and Happy New Year once again to all!

Anett Kontaveit to beat Petra Kvitova at 2.29 with Pinnacle

I'm not entire excited to go against Kvitova, but I just have to, I don't understand her skinny version at all, it just doesn't seem like the best fitness basis for her particular style and the match against Collins showed that she still has some way to go. Kontaveit will be fresh after dispatching a tricky opponent in style in the first round and she just looked better physically to me, so I'd have her at evens at most. Kvitova is a big name and I'd love to see her win some Grand Slams again, but she doesn't deserve this sort of favoritism imo.

great start Czechpunter, 2 bets 2 wins in 2019   !!!!!!!!

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Ajla Tomljanovic to beat Karolina Pliskova at 3.50 with bet365

Today Alja impressed me with her game against Konta (6-2, 7-6). She served extremely well, hitting the ball with power and holding long rallies. It won’t be easy for her but If she plays like she did today she can beat Karo. The crowd will be with her.

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Ajla Tomljanovic to beat Karolina Pliskova at 3.56 with Pinnacle

I've never been a big fan of the Pliskova sisters and Karolina was pretty mutch on her same level throughout the hole 2018 season. She doesn't take any steps forward to become as good as Petra Kvitova has been when she's won her grand slams. The consistent bad level of Karolina was seen in many matches last season and I think it's evident that she doesn't really have the extra gear to power her to the next level. Ajla is doing some good stuff consistently and worked hard for two years to be where she is ranked right now and with that work ethic I think she can win matches like this one in the coming three years. Ajla is ranked 46 because she's worked hard to get back from injury and 43 where she was at in October is probably not her career high. It will improve this season.

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Tomas Berdych to beat (-1.5 sets) Fernando Verdasco at 2.81 with Pinnacle

Tomas has a commanding 10-4 record over Nando and he's won the last 4 in a row. Last time 2012 on clay in Madrid and it's been 9 straight sets won for Tomas i this matchup. It's highly likely this is gonna end in a straight sets dominating win for Tomas judging by the way Tomas played in the first match. Tomas is a dangerous player when he's playing at his top level and he's quite close to that it seems like now.

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Dustin Brown to beat Gregoire Barrere at 1.80 with Ladbrokes

Brown has generally been fairly good in Challengers and it's hard not to like his two twins here, while Barrere's win over Galovic was the only good result from him for quite some time. Brown also beat him in their only previous meeting, so I like the price quite a lot.

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I've done my share for today I think with 4 wins and 2 losses. I can live with the two losses since the winning bets where quite lucrative. Tomas might beat Nando but he lost the first set so it doesn't matter to my set handicap bet on Tomas. The livebet on John Millman wasn't the most necesarry one either but on to the next day now unless there's something in Orlando the next three hours.

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no bets for me today and tomorrow, i do not see any value bets at all, maybe Bautista-Agut should be fav vs. Wawrinka in Doha but not quite sure about that tbh and 2.2 isn't a prize i would bet on pregame in such a matchup as i expect to get better odds after one service game won by Wawrinka and i can't see much breaks in there as Wawrinka served well and RBA also is hard to break usually. Let's see but i think i will focus on the weekend with qualifying events in Auckland, Sydney and Hobart.

Edited by opole

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Noah Rubin to beat (-4.0) Hugo Nys at 1.93 with Pinnacle

Hugo is a player who is mostly investing in doubles where he is top 100. He can keep a match even but mostly loses in singles in straight sets. Noah is the defending champ in Noumea and I think he should have a decent chance of covering this handicap on hardcourt where he does his best. There should at least be two breaks for Noah in two sets so I see minimum void on this bet.

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Daniil Medvedev/Milos Raonic over 12.5 games first set at 2.60 with Unibet

Pretty good value on tie-break in first set in this match. Brisbane is playing very fast, one of the fastest courts on the tour. Ideal for a player like Milos who bombs in about 10 aces per set. Daniil served 16 aces and was broken only once when he beat Andy Murray last round. There was a tie-break in the first set when they met in Tokyo in October and this time is likely to not be any different.

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Vera Zvonareva to beat  Veronika Kudermetova at 1.50 with bet365

 

Zvonareva is playing well again since last year. Managed to beat an in-form up and coming player at the previous round. Kudermetova has been playing well but 3 matches in 3 sets already and her serve has been sub-par in the last match.

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Omg, im wathcing Dustin Brown and i have never seen anything like that, he just doesn't want to win. He has lost the first set in 20 minutes, losing his serves with double faults and walking around the court. I have seen Kyrgios a lot of times doing this kind of things but never in the level that Dustin is doing now, this guy deserves some kind of sanction for this. Lets see if he change his mind for the second set, but i have no hopes 

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ATP Doha

Roberto Bautista Agut @ 2.26 Pinnacle 3/10

Both Wawrinka and Bautista played very well in their opening matches, winning comfortably without losing a set. Obviously Wawrinka had the tougher opponents with Khachanov and Jarry but i think this is a different matchup these days. Wawrinka is playing better and better after his knee injury and apparently he is in good shape but after watching his first two matches i think he is still a bit rusty in terms of movement. He isn't moving that well to be honest, and i think Bautista is a tough matchup if you have some issues with moving around the court as the Spaniard knows how to let his opponents run around and using & creating angles with his groundstrokes. I personally think RBA is massively underrated on the circuit but he dropped out of Top 20 last year so maybe he is also declining but he looked better at the end of the season and he is always starting strong into the new season. He looks in great shape and i have still some concerns about Wawrinka and matchups where he has to move a lot. Both Khachanov and Jarry are static ballbasher, those guys aren't moving a lot and their strokes are predictable too so i think today we'll see the real level of Wawrinka. I think Bautista should be prized even around 1.9 at least but maybe he is even the favorite here. Odds >2.2 are good enough to try.

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8 hours ago, aussietennisexpert said:

Vera Zvonareva to beat  Veronika Kudermetova at 1.50 with bet365

 

Zvonareva is playing well again since last year. Managed to beat an in-form up and coming player at the previous round. Kudermetova has been playing well but 3 matches in 3 sets already and her serve has been sub-par in the last match.

Welcome to Punterslounge and good luck with your bet!

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6 hours ago, eros said:

He's unpredictable, I would never bet just a single cent on that clown.

I think there's one even worse player right now than Dustin and it's Thomaz Bellucci and just for the sake of Dustin having beaten Thomaz 3 times before and also in straight sets once or twice I did place a bet on Dustin -1.5 sets last season in a challenger event and got 3.65 on that bet. So Dustin can make you happy but most of the times he's a clown like you say. It's hard to know when he will show up.

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7 hours ago, darko08 said:

Omg, im wathcing Dustin Brown and i have never seen anything like that, he just doesn't want to win. He has lost the first set in 20 minutes, losing his serves with double faults and walking around the court. I have seen Kyrgios a lot of times doing this kind of things but never in the level that Dustin is doing now, this guy deserves some kind of sanction for this. Lets see if he change his mind for the second set, but i have no hopes 

I had a bet on Dustin straight win in an indoor challenger in France early last season in first round when he faced Liam Broady and he was about to serve home the match at 4-5 in third set but just before he was going to start serving I cashed out on bet365 and guess what happened. Dustin choked and lost his serve twice to lose the match and the decider by 7-5.

Edited by four-leaf

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17 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Dustin Brown to beat Gregoire Barrere at 1.80 with Ladbrokes

Brown has generally been fairly good in Challengers and it's hard not to like his two twins here, while Barrere's win over Galovic was the only good result from him for quite some time. Brown also beat him in their only previous meeting, so I like the price quite a lot.

Didn't bet on Dustin this time and if you bet on him you have to pick the absolutely right time like when he's facing Thomaz Bellucci. I remember that he beat Thomaz 3-0 in US open 2017 and Thomaz is the biggest loser outthere of former top 100 players right now. But anyway Dustin has a 5-0 record (if you don't count the two retirements by Dustin) on Thomaz winning 4 times in straight sets, 3 times on clay so that's one of the few exceptions where you can acctually bet on Dustin to win a match. Dustin is one of those players you have to be really smart about when picking him to win as he's got some talent when he rarely shows it consistently.

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Did Anderson look tired or injured yesterday? Couldn't catch the match live. Odds on Munar are dropping fast and heavily. Probably drained out already but could be interesting inplay if Anderson is a break up or something.

Edited by opole

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Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat (+1.5 sets) Novak Djokovic at 3.67 with Pinnacle

Nole won their only encounter so far in straight sets in Rome last season but Niko has been on an upwards trend ever since and I can see him snatching a set here just like Marton did last match.

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Venus Williams to beat Bianca Andreescu at 1.72 with Pinnacle

I had some good bets on Andreescu in the past and I was thrilled to see her beat Wozniacki today, but I'm happy to get behind Venus here at 1.72, as I'd have her at around 1.50 honestly. Big wins are hard to follow up and Venus has been playing well herself and was the winner here in 2015, so there should be no shortage of motivation. Also, she's a completely different match-up than Wozniacki, so Bianca will have to adjust - and I'm not entirely convinced that she will be able to do that.

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