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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - December 29 - January 6

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6 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Good luck with that, but I'm really skeptical. After all, he was considering quitting altogether at some point last year and he didn't play in the off-season either, even though he had plenty of chances.

He finished season early because of back problems and was focusing on the new season instead of playing some unimportant show matches & tournaments in the off season or czech league matches. A smart decision imo. He had a very good and long pre season in Monte Carlo and was doing all the stuff without problems / pain so i am pretty confident he will look good at the beginning of the season. We'll see how the body/back reacts to a long season and maybe the pain will come back after some time but he should be ready for the start. I read an interview with his new fitness coach Marek Vseticek and he said Berdych will be at 100% physical in Doha but obviously lacking some match/tournament experience.

Edited by opole

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ATP Brisbane

Grigor Dimitrov x John Millman @2.02 5dimes 4/10

Not quite a fan of short odds and parlays but i have a good feeling with this one. 

Dimitrov had a very weak 2018 season dropping out of the Top 15 and nearly Top 20. He has to defend a Semifinal in Brisbane and USUALLY plays very strong in Australia. His results in Brisbane are good: Final 2013, Semifinal 2015, Quarterfinal 2016, Won 2017 and Semifinal 2018. So i do expect him beataing Nishioka. Nishioka is a weaponless grinder, Dimitrob should have too much.

Millman is playing his home tournament in Brisbane as it's his home town. He as a couple of very decent results vs. elite opposition like 64 67(8) 36 vs. Dimitrov, 64 46 36 vs. Federer or 16 75 36 vs. Murray. I expect a very strong performance this night and Sandgren is one of those players i expect to drop massively this year, he had a few good runs last year but overall i do not see him as a regular Top 60/70 player, should lose tons of points after Oz Open.

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@opole That's what I'm hoping for as well for his sake, but I'm a bit scared that he's fallen into some sort of a Murray-like scenario now with the pain not being manageable long-term. His match against Kohli will reveal a lot obviously and he might be slight value for that given the German's own problems if he's indeed completely fit, so let's see. I was expecting him to play one or two matches in the Czech league though for some stress-free practice, especially since he did go to the Czech Republic for a quick advertising cash-grab not that long ago :lol.

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@opole .. have u taken a look at any wta underdogs for todays matches.. I see something , and wanted ask if you had any chances before i mentioned my pick.. Also i'm not recording results again until january first atleast.  So I don't tip you off .. I am looking at matches Down under or in Shengzen with odds between 2.5 and 5.. I have found only one thing i feel comfortable with. 

Actually I will give a better hint .. The match is played at Shengzen

Edited by money44

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I speak to everybody here when i post.. sometimes will single out opole because we share similar betting style .. but I am happy to hear others response about my questions anytime, and this would be regarding underdogs at China tournament. Cheers:ok

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2 hours ago, money44 said:

@opole .. have u taken a look at any wta underdogs for todays matches.. I see something , and wanted ask if you had any chances before i mentioned my pick.. Also i'm not recording results again until january first atleast.  So I don't tip you off .. I am looking at matches Down under or in Shengzen with odds between 2.5 and 5.. I have found only one thing i feel comfortable with. 

Actually I will give a better hint .. The match is played at Shengzen

So far i have nothing in my mind. What's your thought?

 

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She won alot of matches at the beginning of last season, and has steadily increased her ranking over the past 4-5 years. I've seen footage on her, and she has a really good backhand.. forehand and second serve are issues, but she had 11 aces in her last match.. 8 double faults.. but she only had one double fault in her opening round match.  I've also read some info that Wang had some trouble with her ribs a couple months ago, and I know she has some other injuries in her arms that she was dealing with at some point.. Regardless, I am not hugely impressed with Xinyu Wang at this point, and I don't see her as a favorite in the match.  Xun came thru qualifying, and beat Lin Zhu in her last match who played some tough matches in this tournament last year. 

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14 minutes ago, money44 said:

She won alot of matches at the beginning of last season, and has steadily increased her ranking over the past 4-5 years. I've seen footage on her, and she has a really good backhand.. forehand and second serve are issues, but she had 11 aces in her last match.. 8 double faults.. but she only had one double fault in her opening round match.  I've also read some info that Wang had some trouble with her ribs a couple months ago, and I know she has some other injuries in her arms that she was dealing with at some point.. Regardless, I am not hugely impressed with Xinyu Wang at this point, and I don't see her as a favorite in the match.  Xun came thru qualifying, and beat Lin Zhu in her last match who played some tough matches in this tournament last year. 

+ she beat Xin Yu wang already in 2017 63 63 on hardcourt...

I like your bet.

Still Xin YU wang is one of the best juniors in the world, ranked #2 in the world...but still very inconsistent

I like the theory but in reality it probably play out like books suggests. The super junior talent will beat the journeywomen in a close and competitive match.

Let's see..maybe it's worth a inplay bet...

Edited by opole

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There is alot of talented young players .. xinyu wang can be # 2 this week, and # 5 junior next week. Good luck if you decide in play .. Very high chance I'll be betting on this tho .. I don't see anything else that interests me alot 

It seems to me you are overthinking the situation.  Xun already with the straight set win h2h, and came thru qualifying with good results.. The bet makes sense.  Of course anytime we can lose. I've seen crazy things happen, but thankfully in tennis its less likely to happen.:ok

I might watch to make sure Sakkari doesn't win tho first .. because I could be betting on the wrong shorter player , but its all superstitious nonsense because they can both win or both lose

Edited by money44

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David Ferrer to beat Matthew Ebden at 1.62 with William Hill

Alright, here we go with the first match bet of the season and I'll be siding with David Ferrer, who was surprisingly good against Zverev, losing only in a final set TB. Matthew Ebden did well to beat Pouille, but the Frenchman was as unconvincing as during his entire 2018 and Ferrer is a completely different proposition returns-wise. Not a lock by any stretch of imagination, but Ferrer didn't fall apart in the off-season (as many were expecting him to) and should be too strong for the one-dimensional Aussie.

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I really like Ebden in Australia, he was damn good last year and Perth is his home town so we should expect some extra % there.

Futhermore i think Ebden is a bit underrated due to his defensive style but i think he is much better than this, has nice variety, a very good net game and know how to mix things up.

I do expect some good tennis in the next few weeks but obviously 2.1-2.2 isn't much of a value bet neither vs. Pouille nor vs. Ferrer but i agree with money44 that 1.6 on Ferrer isn't looking special these days but still...all the best and good luck for your bet CP.

I have two bets in my pocket for the challenger circuit, i won't give much of analysis but i like them. But small stake bets. No more than 2 units.

Noumea Challenger

Maxime Chazal @ 2.11 sbobet 2/10

Playford Challenger

Hiroki Moriya @ 3.25 5dimes 2/10

We also should take a look at the QUalifying in Noumea which begins in about an hour. J. P. Fruttero will give his singles comeback there and his opponent is still to be announced so an alternate maybe Bet365 will offer it live...some unknown players there involved as three of four players are ALTERNATES and not announced yet. Could be some nice value bets if Bet365 has to make the odds on short notice.

 

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ATP Doha doubles

C. Ilkel/S. M. Zayid @ 4.76 Pinnacle 2/10

Odds based on the name (Novak) Djokovic. Novak hasn't played a lot of doubles recently, only a couple of tournaments AND Marko Djokovic is a total bum. Sorry for the harsh words but he is. He has nothing. Ilkel is a solid doubles player and Zayid is definitely better than his ranking. 

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If Birrell beats Kasatkina .. I am not betting anything until its a sure bet .. have to be conservative .. because probably missed an opportunity on her.. for sure she looks playable , but i'm not in good betting position to take it @opole... Birrell's previous matches were very good if i'm thinking the right player .. anyways we'll see , she is serving for match now 

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2 hours ago, money44 said:

If Birrell beats Kasatkina .. I am not betting anything until its a sure bet .. have to be conservative .. because probably missed an opportunity on her.. for sure she looks playable , but i'm not in good betting position to take it @opole... Birrell's previous matches were very good if i'm thinking the right player .. anyways we'll see , she is serving for match now 

It's pretty hard to call it a missed chance every time a big underdog wins and we / you didn't pick her. I know what's your point and i definitely understand you but it is very very tough. Of course afterwards it looked like a solid bet but tbh i didn't have it in mind as i took a look over the matches in Brisbane. 

Night was okay so far. Moriya won, Chazal lost. Serena is winning a close match right now although Sakkari was up and served for the set, typical one. Let's see...tons of bets are still on for the day and i have a good feeling.

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happy new year all :ok

ATP Brisbane Outright Winner: Alex De Minaur and Daniil Medvedev

I haven't seen any odds yet but I'll be backing these two e.w. (half the odds to reach the final).

Both have made stunning progress in the rankings and I don't think they've finished yet.

I actually saw Alex at the Surbiton Challenger back in June where he lost to Jeremy Chardy in the final but I never thought he'd end the season at number 31.

What I did notice about him was his incredible speed around the court which has to be seen to be believed.

As for the big Russian, Daniil, he's already won three hard court titles and can beat anyone on this surface imo.

Here's hoping to bank some early profits, good luck all :ok

===================================================

Update: Alex De Minaur @17.00 and Daniil Medvedev @15.00

both with Bet365.

Edited by yogg
odds update

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On 29.12.2018. at 7:14 PM, opole said:

ATP Pune

Pablo Andujar @ 3.14 Pinnacle 5/10

I know Andujar was playing on clay most of the time in 2018 but he is a player who can be solid on any surface out there as he is very skilled and moving well. He did very well in 2018 coming back from a longterm injury and establishing himself in Top 100 again. Props to him. Donskoy is one of those players who are playing average for 8 or 9 months but having some good moments throughout the year but overall i am not afraid of him here. Andujar should have a good shot winning this.

Andujar was 6-2 up in the tb of a 3rd set and somehow menaged not to win. :@

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15 minutes ago, eros said:

holy shit what happened to berdych odds? :(

The simple answer is lots of money coming in for Kolhlschreiber. As for why - I'm not sure. Most likely it's more and more bettors deciding that even money on a player coming back after a long period of inactivity against a decent player doesn't make sense. Even money on Kohlschreiber would have been my play but now I'd be thinking about Berdych on some kind of plus.

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There was nothing strange in this match:

Berdych T. vs Kohlschreber P.

(It was a 50-50 match-up)

Berdych, the younger player at the age of 33 obliged with a win... 6-4, 7-6(7-5)

Congrats to Berdych's takers :cheers

Edited by Robinnho

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Berdych looked really good for being out such a long time. He was a bit shaky in the first set but played very, very well in the second. He served well, needed some time to adapt to the match rythm but his effort in the second set was really good. Odds Movement was simply pathetic, nobody with a pulse would bet on Kohli at 1.6 odds or less, unreal drop i can't understand but we beat the market, that's what counts. For me it was a good start to the new season so far, i will post my stats at the end of every week so let's rock guys...i have no time right now to post long analysis as the new year is coming but i will give you my bets for this night/tomorrow:

Hopman Cup

Belinda Bencic @ 2.92 Pinnacle 3/10

 

ATP Brisbane doubles

J. Millman/J.-P. Smith @ 1.99 Sbobet 4/10

R. Lindstedt/M. Raonic @ 3.80 5dimes 3/10

 

Challenger Noumea

Andre Goransson @ 5.75 5dimes 1/10

 

Edited by opole

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I'm gonna put my money on Antoine Hoang to beat Jiri Vesely in Pune.  The Frenchmen came through 2 qualification matches and is in good competitive condition. I think he has the potential to be a Top-100 ATP player. Vesely, the higher rank player and slight favourite here must be at his top level, which I don't think so, to win this match-up.  Therefore Hoang can take advantage of the situation to open his account in the main draw of the ATP.

Happy New Year ALL:ok

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Great work as always @opole, let's hope that Bencic doesn't choke and Happy New Year once again to all!

Anett Kontaveit to beat Petra Kvitova at 2.29 with Pinnacle

I'm not entire excited to go against Kvitova, but I just have to, I don't understand her skinny version at all, it just doesn't seem like the best fitness basis for her particular style and the match against Collins showed that she still has some way to go. Kontaveit will be fresh after dispatching a tricky opponent in style in the first round and she just looked better physically to me, so I'd have her at evens at most. Kvitova is a big name and I'd love to see her win some Grand Slams again, but she doesn't deserve this sort of favoritism imo.

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