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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - December 29 - January 6

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@opole you pick so many underdogs to win. Reality probably looks different since some of the underdogs should lose but if you get every match correct I'll be very happy. Lucie Hradecka has a 3-1 head to head over Andrea Petkovic winning twice on hardcourt a few years ago and losing that one time on clay. Lucie clearly has an edge on hardcourt so It's not fair to give her 5+ odds. I've only backed you on Destanee Aiava and Lucie Hradecka but if those two wins that I'll be enough for me.

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4 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

@opole you pick so many underdogs to win. Reality probably looks different since some of the underdogs should lose but if you get every match correct I'll be very happy. Lucie Hradecka has a 3-1 head to head over Andrea Petkovic winning twice on hardcourt a few years ago and losing that one time on clay. Lucie clearly has an edge on hardcourt so It's not fair to give her 5+ odds. I've only backed you on Destanee Aiava and Lucie Hradecka but if those two wins that I'll be enough for me.

I don't like picking 50/50 matches with short odds or even set handicaps on WTA tour level. Never my style and obviously it's more reasonable to pick underdogs at the beginning of the season as in the mid of a season. But let's see what happens...have a good feeling for Aiava, Hradecka, Routliffe and Muchova. Ivanov is more a try as she beat Hourigan two weeks ago so why not repeating that? O'Connell is more a feel out in the mens secotr as i do not rate Garin and O'Connell always looked good at the beginning of the season in Australia. Probably more reasonable to put money on the set/Game handicap or over.

Edited by opole

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1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

@opole you pick so many underdogs to win. Reality probably looks different since some of the underdogs should lose but if you get every match correct I'll be very happy. Lucie Hradecka has a 3-1 head to head over Andrea Petkovic winning twice on hardcourt a few years ago and losing that one time on clay. Lucie clearly has an edge on hardcourt so It's not fair to give her 5+ odds. I've only backed you on Destanee Aiava and Lucie Hradecka but if those two wins that I'll be enough for me.

There is no reason for underdogs to lose .. They win almost every single day.. The only challenge is picking the right ones , and with the most thorough analysis and info.. Maybe it is possible to select the winner everytime.. These lines are not real.. especially situations with very close odds 2.10.. sometimes the bookmaker knows who is going to win, and set the line as a slight underdog so all the money comes the other way, and they win on everybody bet who is "supposed" to actually win the match. I hope you can understand this, and not worry about how often picks win .. pay attention to the profit at the end of the day or year.. Its your responsibility to decide if its worth taking a risk.. Opole is hand delivering his best knowledge.. You can't change the way a person a bets, but find a way that it could help you without hurting your bankroll too much on losses.  :ok happy new years guys, and  there will be more epic stories to tell at the end of the year again. 

Edited by money44

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3 hours ago, South_African_Punter said:

Taro Daniel to beat JP Smith at 1.75 (Brisbane Qualifying)

Not much to say except that I think Taro should be too good for Smith here.

Taro is a player who easily gets exposed at the higher ATP level but he should beat a guy who mostly reaches quarter and maximum semifinal of challenger tournaments. JP has the homefactor here only.

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Livebet Zoe Hives/Anastasia Potapova under 20.5 at 1.83

I think Anastasia Potapova has some great potential. I see as someone who might get a big breakthrough this season or next season like Jelena Ostapenko had by winning RG. She should have it quite easy in this match.

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ATP Brisbane

James Duckworth @5.85 Pinnacle 3/10

https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/tennis/andy-murray-injury-brisbane-international-return-hip-australian-open-atp-a8701651.html

Hip injuries are always very tough to overcome. There are a lot of examples where a serious hip injury ended a career. I don't know but what Murray said in the article isn't very good. He has still pain, he is only "feeling a bit better" than at the beginning of 2018 and he doesn't know how his hip reacts to some competition as training is a different thing an can't be compared to a regular match. We'll see in which condition Murray will show up. 

Duckworth on the other side just won the AO WC Playoffs two weeks ago with four wins in a row and 16 sets of tennis within six days so he should be really fit and in good shape, prepared well and i always was a huge fan of Duckworth who has an unreal amount of talent and could easily be a Top 50 player without those injuries.

I have to try the odds as i do expect a very good performance by Duckworth. Murray still full of questionmarks.

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Hopman Cup

Maria Sakkari @ 3.73 Pinnacle 2/10

Wasn't impressed by Serena in Abu Dhabi vs. Venus. She looked slow and overweight, she made a lot of unforced errors and overall it was a pretty average performance. Now she has to travel from Abu Dhabi to Perth, not a big deal in 2018 but still has to be done. Sakkari already played a match in Perth, looked very good today. Can see her scoring the upset.

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ATP Pune

Pablo Andujar @ 3.14 Pinnacle 5/10

I know Andujar was playing on clay most of the time in 2018 but he is a player who can be solid on any surface out there as he is very skilled and moving well. He did very well in 2018 coming back from a longterm injury and establishing himself in Top 100 again. Props to him. Donskoy is one of those players who are playing average for 8 or 9 months but having some good moments throughout the year but overall i am not afraid of him here. Andujar should have a good shot winning this.

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ATP Pune

Arjun Kadhe @ 4.36 Pinnacle 5/10

Djere is more a claycourt player, less experience on outdoor hardcourt (record of 7-18 in last four years) and i don't rate him that high on faster surfaces tbh, Kadhe is playing his home tournament in Pune, i am a big fan of him, followed his career at college quite closely and i can see him breaking into Top 200 this year. I really think the guy has massive potential. He needs to raise his level of consistency.

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ATP Brisbane

Ryan Harrison @ 2.82 Pinnacle 3/10

Harrison usually plays very well in Australia. Last year he reached the final in Brisbane and the third round in Melbourne. He likes the conditions and i expect another solid performance here.

Pick is mainly against Kyrgios who is already finding excuses for his 2019 season:

https://www.news.com.au/sport/tennis/nick-kyrgios-plays-down-expectations-ahead-of-2019-season/news-story/5060c04d1d81e0119e52e30930302316

Wouldn't be surprised if he totally fails at the beginning of the new season. 

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ATP Pune doubles

P. Raja/R. Ramanathan @ 2.45 Pinnacle 3/10

N. S. Balaji/A. Kadhe @ 2.66 Pinnacle 3/10

Both matchups are looking more like 50/50 even matchups instead of giving those teams an advantage. Bambridge/O'Mara finished the year strong but let's see if they can confirm their good results in the 2019 season. Those indian doubles teams always very tough to beat at home.

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ATP Doha

Tomas Berdych @ 1.943 Pinnacle 6/10

Berdych has a very good record in Doha: Semifinal in 2017 and 2016, Final in 2015. Usually Berdych always starts strong into a new season as he is very strong physical and in good shape.

On the other side Kohli had a slight injury over christmas. He had to wear a plaster on his right hand because of a tendonitis. He should be fit enough to play but not near 100% and lacking some practice sessions too. 

H2H 9-2 in favor of Berdych is also a strong argument.

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Tomas Berdych to win ATP Doha @ 66.16 Pinnacle 1/10

First thing is Berdych avoiding Djokovic till the possible final.

His half is not that hard imo.

Thiem, Goffin, Cecchinato, Verdasco are beatable opponents.

Odds are looking reat. As i wrote he has a good history there.

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